Title: Brien Lundin: Gold, Bonds Sending Warning — What's Next for Price Show: Investing News (investingnews.com) — interviewed by Charlotte McLeod Guest: Brien Lundin — editor of Gold Newsletter; host of the New Orleans Investment Conference Date: 2026-09-10 URL: https://youtu.be/xMMgWlI9sFE Length: 34:18 Note: Auto-generated captions pasted by Stephen, cleaned. Fillers (um / uh / you know / I mean as an interjection) and stutters/false starts removed, plus non-speech tags ([snorts], [clears throat], [music]); wording otherwise verbatim and every (mm:ss) cue left in place. ASR name mangles corrected: "Brian London" -> Brien Lundin; "Charlotte Mloud" -> Charlotte McLeod; "Kevin Walsh" / "Walsh" / "wash" / "WH" / "Wars" / "Moors" / "war" -> Kevin Warsh / Warsh; "Vasan" / "Bance" -> Bessent; "new orlandconference.com" -> neworleansconference.com; "net debtree" -> net debt-free; "CO" -> COVID; "hype" -> hike; "trick box" -> trick bag; "topic dour" -> topic du jour; "if you were driven" -> if you will, driven; "copper in copper plays" -> copper and copper plays; "secondguing" -> second-guessing; "offer more upside potential of commensurately" -> with commensurately; "soar all-time records" -> soar to all-time records; "is already far exceeded" -> has already far exceeded; speaker roster: "Danielle D. Martino Booth" -> Danielle DiMartino Booth, "Dominic Frisbee" -> Dominic Frisby, "Peter Bookvar" -> Peter Boockvar, "Jim Urio" -> Jim Iuorio, "Adrien Day" -> Adrian Day, "Tabby Costa" -> Tavi Costa, "Porter Stansbury" -> Porter Stansberry, "Adam Tagert" -> Adam Taggart, "Frank Gustra" -> Frank Giustra, "Dave Colum" -> Dave Collum, "Don Durant" -> Don Durrett, "Lobo Tra" -> Lobo Tiggre. Unresolved and left as the captions rendered it: "Bob Preer" at 01:14 (possibly Bob Prechter). The captions split "1.2 trillion" across the 13:08 /
13:31 cues; left as rendered. ">>" marks a change of speaker, as in the source captions.
00:04 I'm Charlotte McLeod with investingnews.com and here today with me is Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. Thank you so much for being here. Always great to have you. >> Well, it's always a pleasure to be on your show, Charlotte. So, looking forward to your questions, which are always very smart and precise and interesting and let's cover it all.
00:28 Let's get into it. But before we start talking about gold, I should also mention you're host of the New Orleans Investment Conference, which is coming right up at the end of October. So, I thought we could begin there and hear from you about what is the highlights and why investors should consider attending.
00:46 >> Yeah. Well, you know that our big thing, our unique selling proposition is that we try to bring much more value than what investors are paying for and much more value than any other event out there. And I think we've done that again this year. I really encourage your viewers to go look at our speaker roster this year.
01:14 It features Grant Williams, Doug Casey, and what might be what he says is going to be his final public appearance. Danielle DiMartino Booth, Brent Johnson, Dominic Frisby, Peter Boockvar, Jim Iuorio, Peter Schiff, Adrian Day, Tavi Costa, George Gammon, Porter Stansberry, Adam Taggart, Frank Giustra, Bob Preer, Dave Collum, I mean the list goes on and on.
01:41 Don Durrett, Lobo Tiggre, Jeff Clark, just on and on, dozens and dozens of the top names and the names that are much more relevant and I think valuable in a metals and mining bull market like we have today. You know, I tell people that you can find three or four of our speakers at some other conferences, but you won't find 30 or 40.
02:05 And that's precisely what you get here. You also get hundreds and hundreds of really smart investors that kind of self-identify as very smart and very successful by the very fact that they're coming to this event. And these investors are packed of ideas, their own ideas. They're very willing to share them.
02:27 And that's one of the key values of our event is your fellow attendees and what you learn from them. So it is coming up rapidly. It's the end of October. October 28th to 31st. Yes, we do end on Halloween, which is interesting in New Orleans, as you can imagine. That's fun for those who can partake here in New Orleans, but those who have to get back home for trick-or-treating or whatever.
02:53 Our schedule this year is adjusted somewhat that if you leave early, you can watch all the recordings and you won't miss quite as much as usual. So, it's coming up rapidly. Our exhibit hall is sold out. Our hotel room block will be sold out much earlier this year than ever before. So, I urge people to take a look.
03:15 Go to neworleansconference.com. Get all the details and make sure you reserve your place now because this year is going to be a blockbuster with lots of profitable opportunities revealed and discussed. >> Well, we will have all the details in the video description for everybody. I will be there.
03:35 I'm really looking forward to it. So, end of October is when that is happening. Let's start talking about what's happening in the markets. And of course, we want to start as usual with gold. Our last conversation was all the way back at the beginning of July when the metal was in a bit of a pullback, which you told us was normal.
03:54 We've seen some improvement in the price since then, but I think investors are still looking at it and wondering, is the bottom actually in? And I think we've talked in the past about how it's a process. So I wonder if I can get your thoughts on that now. >> Yeah. Back then I was talking about the fact that it is a process and if seasonality was in effect.
04:15 It doesn't always work every year but when it does work then we typically bottom on the gold price at least sometime between mid July and mid August. We were right in there. I think the process is over. I think we did bottom. I think we're coming off of that bottom. The charts certainly show that.
04:34 And that happened really in early August. So it was right on time, right on schedule, just as we hoped it would happen. And so we had a really strong initial rise. Gold ran up 10 15% at its peak in that recovery. The mining stocks went up 30 to 50% across the board.
04:58 And so it was a very powerful rally. It needed to take a break. We see from their RSI and other indicators that it went from oversold to overbought very quickly. And so from a technical standpoint, it needed a break. From a fundamental standpoint, it needed one as well because we started getting more hawkish rhetoric out of the Fed, out of Kevin Warsh.
05:23 And that had an effect on gold here and there. It just seems that every time we get a Warsh or something like that that talks and gets the market all excited about potential rate hikes, then after a couple of days that fades away and gold gets right back on track. I think we're going to see that as we speak.
05:46 We're down today, but not as much as other sectors. And I think there's a lot going on behind the scenes and between gold and bonds and the interplay thereof or lack of interplay. They're starting to become correlated again in terms of yields in gold. So I think there's some signs out there that more volatility and potentially something even more serious lies just ahead.
06:14 >> Well, let's follow down that path. You were mentioning before we turned the camera on that this gold price rise that we've been seeing is coming at the same time as we have rising treasury yields. So, let's unpack that and what that could mean moving forward. >> Yeah, we've had a little bout of gold weakness over the last week here and there.
06:35 That's upset the correlation, brought the correlation between gold and the 10-year Treasury yield for example back to an inverse or negative correlation but before this most recent episode of gold weakness that correlation has been positive. So rising yields, rising real yields, positive real yields has actually been bullish or been accompanied by rising gold price largely since the end of June.
07:09 And that's unusual because rising yields are usually associated with tighter monetary policy, stronger economic growth, things that you would not think would be bullish for gold. This is one of those instances where yields are rising because investors, in particular, the so-called bond vigilantes, are demanding higher yields because they're worried about repayment of those debts.
07:38 They demand higher return on their investments because they see significant currency depreciation, depreciation of the dollar ahead. That's the same reason you want to buy gold. So in this instance, yields are rising and gold is rising. And they're both moving for the same reason. Investors are concerned about the future purchasing power of the dollar.
08:04 And also those two markets are predictive. Every investment asset, every investment sector is a predictive mechanism, tries to discount the future. I think gold and bonds are the most sensitive and I think that they're both looking ahead and predicting some sort of or indicating some sort of turmoil ahead.
08:29 And at the end that will be very bullish for gold and I think very bullish for physical assets, commodities because any sort of volatility, any sort of market crisis like we've seen in the past will cause the Fed and other central banks to resort to really massive liquidity operations, rescue operations that are ultimately very bullish for gold, silver, monetary metals and commodities in general.
08:58 I did want to go in that direction because it does seem like the US government is getting increasingly concerned about what's happening in the bond market and isn't afraid to try stepping in to make changes there. So, how does that fit into the picture here? Well, it's interesting that Treasury Secretary Bessent is trying to talk the long bond yields down, coming up with these buyback operations that he may be doubling or in this most recent case tripling their buyback operations for long bonds. But it's still a drop
09:33 in the bucket compared to the size of those markets. And he's really using rhetoric to try and manipulate the markets, manipulate yields lower. But at the same time we have Kevin Warsh essentially trying to talk the short end yields of bills higher by threatening to fight inflation and institute rate hikes.
10:00 In Bessent's case, the market is taking up the challenge and actually probably driving yields higher more quickly in reaction. And the 10-year is approaching 5%. Which is a bit of a danger point for the stock market, widely regarded as potentially a tripping point for the stock market. And Warsh is getting higher rates because he's talking about rate hikes, but that's where the US funds its debt at the short end and higher rates are simply unaffordable there.
10:35 So, if he gets what he's asking for then, you know, there's a real danger there that we'll see bond vigilantes turn into bill vigilantes and drive rates up without Warsh having to do anything at all. Well, and let's go back to what you were saying about the stock market there because I think investors have been wondering for a long time.
10:58 How much longer can we continue at these levels going higher, etc. So, we could be perhaps getting to a turnaround point there. Is that how you're seeing it? >> Yeah, the stock market is showing signs of being a bubble. Obviously on valuations typical valuation metrics are higher than they even were at the height of the tech boom in 2000 in late 1990s.
11:25 So the valuations are high. It's a bubble. Usually the pin that pops the bubbles usually comes out of left field, is something that nobody's really looking at. In this case, it might just be bond yields which are actually the most closely watched sector in macroeconomics. So it may not come out of left field or maybe something comes up that spikes bond yields and then in turn that trips up the stock market.
11:55 But we are in actually a very fragile situation with bond yields reaching for what have previously been inflection points and the administration and Treasury and the powers that be seemingly unable to derail that. >> It sounds like fragile is definitely the right word to use there.
12:22 And I also want to go back to the Fed because of course we have the next meeting coming up very soon next week. Of course we're seeing pressure from the Trump administration to lower rates, but it doesn't sound like that's a foregone conclusion at all and Warsh is quite tight lipped about what his plans might be.
12:42 So what do you see happening next week? >> I think the odds show about a 50/50 chance that there'll be a rate hike. A lot will depend on the inflation number, the CPI number, which we don't know as we speak right now. So that kind of remains to be determined. I think that's going to be pretty volatile indicator for the markets when we get it tomorrow as we speak.
13:08 I think the odds are 50/50. I think there's a chance that Warsh wants to do a quarter point hike just for show to show the market his resolve. But as far as an extended campaign of rate hikes, there's no way that we can afford that with the debt this high with debt service costs around 1.
13:31 2 trillion a year, more than we spend on national defense. About the same as we spend on the other most expensive line items on the budget. I don't think we can afford that. I know we can't afford that. And I also know that Warsh was put in office to do one thing and that's to lower interest rates over the long term.
13:52 And he's fighting that. He wants to look independent, but he was put there for one job. And I think when it's all said and done, he will have to or be forced to lower rates. And I think he's going to try to kind of redefine the measurements, the rulers that we use to define inflation.
14:15 So remains to be seen. I think there is, as I said, about a 50/50 chance that he's going to put in one hike, but I don't think there's a chance that he can afford to do anything of a longer term, and I think gold has been sniffing that out. >> Just a little bit more on Warsh, he seems to be going in this direction where he'd rather provide less commentary.
14:44 And I find it really interesting because of course when there's Fed meeting or Fed commentary, everybody wants to be reading between the lines. So, do you think that's a positive move from Warsh or negative or maybe even neutral? >> Yeah, I think it's a positive move on his part. I like the guy. I think he's the best Federal Reserve chairman in my career from what he says, but again, he can't change the underlying math of the cost of servicing this debt.
15:14 And those costs are real and growing. So higher rates, we just can't afford it. And he really is in a trick bag here. I don't know why he took the job. I guess it was irresistible, but the Fed is stuck in a trap. There's nothing it can do. We cannot raise enough money through tax hikes.
15:37 We can't cut spending. Obviously, we've never been able to do that. And I don't think we can grow our way out of it. I know we can't grow our way out of it because the debt's so large. And that's where Warsh really hopes that we'll be able to do that, or that's where he places his hopes.
15:57 I think there's a good chance he's sincere, but I think he also recognizes the math and there's not much he can do about it. We can't afford to add 50 basis points or 100 basis points to our debt service costs with debt at these levels and the trajectory only steepening.
16:18 The deficit has already far exceeded what we had last year and it's growing ever more. President Trump just announced a potential $5,000 payment to every taxpayer if they win the House and Senate in the midterm elections. You know, where is that money going to come from? I think we all know it's going to come with the stroke of a few keys and it's going to add to the deficit even more.
16:47 I did want to at least briefly highlight the debt because I think since we last talked it got past that $40 trillion number which is massive. I'm always asking you, all right, what is the number that gets the public's attention, and it sounds like this might have to be it, but what are your thoughts? >> Well, it grabs the public's attention periodically.
17:11 I don't think it will really grab their attention until it results in the kind of inflation like we saw a couple of years ago that really impacts people's pocketbooks and that I think is coming as well. But it rolled over at 40 trillion and we saw probably a couple of hours of time on CNBC and the major news networks in total addressing the issue and then they quickly moved on to AI and whatever the other topic du jour was in the markets.
17:48 So, it really isn't grabbing the market's attention. And again, there's not much they can do about it anyway. So I don't think people will worry about it until it results in a crisis. But we are at the point where I don't know that that crisis is avoidable. At some point there will be another trip up in the markets.
18:08 The Federal Reserve will have to come in with another massive rescue effort and in this case they'll have to do much more than they did for COVID, which was much more than they did in the great financial crisis. And they'll have to do much more to get the same effect. And the public will realize that these crises happen periodically and every time it happens there's a whole lot more currency created.
18:31 There's an inflationary price to pay and the purchasing power of the dollar and really other currencies and developed nations around the world falls precipitously or it continues along that track. So yeah, I think the currencies are losing credibility in every one of these episodes and it's more of a trend.
18:56 It's more of a long slide than any particular moment that grabs the public's attention. >> These factors that we've been talking about, the bond market, the Fed, are they what you're seeing as most important for gold right now? Obviously, there's a lot going on. I remember in the summer we were talking about how the continuation in the Iran war, that was a headwind for gold.
19:19 What else should we be focusing on right now when it comes to gold? >> Yeah, I think that's it. I think bond yields are the big story right now. I think Warsh and whether he can actually raise rates significantly or more than just once. I think those factors now are kind of captivating the market and holding the market's attention.
19:45 I think Warsh's hawkish turn, the Fed's hawkish turn will prove to be a misread by the market and the other thing that had been holding gold back was the Iran war. I think that's going to be resolved at some point or at least go off the front pages. And the fundamental factors of paying off this debt and the fact that currencies need to be depreciated, in particular the dollar, I think those are going to continue to take hold.
20:17 I think in other words, as Wall Street put it, the debasement trade is something that's going to come back into fashion. >> I'll throw in one more factor which is midterm elections in the US. This is something that I've been starting to hear about as maybe a potential inflection point for gold and silver prices.
20:39 How are you looking at that? >> Yeah, you can see what's happening. There is no resolve to cut spending on either side of the aisle in the US. The Republicans or in particular the Trump administration are wheeling out all sorts of promises and spending ideas to try and buy more votes and we can't afford that.
21:05 Again, the trajectory on the federal debt is only steepening. The deficits are only growing. We have not even begun to account for the cost of rebuilding our stocks of missiles and bombs after all we've expended on Iran. And that's going to explode the deficit over the next couple of years or help to explode it.
21:33 So, yeah, those are the big issues right now; the midterms are serving just to accelerate that again. Because politicians do what politicians do. They make whatever promises they need to to retain their offices and we're going to see that silly season return once again. Well, let's take a look at the gold price outlook for the rest of 2026.
22:00 So, we talked about how we've most likely gone through this bottoming process here. What do the coming months look like? I think many people are wondering, can we get back to those high levels that we saw at the beginning of the year or does it look more calm? How do you see it? >> Yeah, I think it would be difficult to get back to $5,500 before the end of the year.
22:21 I think we could easily get to 5,000, but let's face it, nobody knows. Nobody really knows. I am bullish. I am more positive for the remainder of the year. I think we're going to get again that debasement trade come back in fashion. And we're going to see even more spending, etc., etc. and possibly some sort of a crisis precipitated by bond yields that seem to be rising with no restraint at this point.
22:54 So, yeah, I'm positive on the price. I don't know that we'll get back to those really fevered levels of the kind of rally that we had earlier this year. I think that's going to take some time. But the markets today, the metals markets today are being driven by western investors, western traders, algorithmic trading, black-box trading and with those involved in this market, we get the kinds of really furious rallies and steep corrections that are normal for a bull market.
23:31 So, it could happen. We could have something precipitate another run in the metals and we get right back to where we were before. I frankly hope that doesn't happen. I like a slower, steadier rise, but who knows what will happen. I think it's incumbent though for us to remember that when in a bull market, and we are in a bull market, in an environment like that you need to buy the dips and concurrently when you have rallies like we had in January and even February this year you need to
24:08 take some of the froth off the top, you need to sell a bit, take some profits, at least in your investment end of your metals and mining portfolio, not in the insurance end, but the investments, you should take profits when that type of rally occurs. >> Good advice for investors and of course I have to ask, similar outlook for silver or does it look different from gold? I remember we've talked before about how that industrial side for silver is starting to come a bit more to the forefront for you.
24:42 >> Yeah, it really is. I really discounted the industrial demand for silver over my entire career because it was really monetary demand that drove the price. But what's happening now is that industrial demand, because the above ground supplies have been eaten away after years of supply deficits.
25:05 The above ground supplies are no longer there and industry is demanding those and industry cannot easily innovate around silver. So as the silver price goes up, as we saw in January, for the first time in my career investors and industry were bidding for the same ounces of silver, and the investors were excited to follow the trend upward and industry was desperate to secure supplies.
25:36 So yeah, the industrial angle for silver has really helped its story. And of course, its age-old story is that it's much more volatile than gold. It rises more than gold on the upside and it falls more than gold on the downside. So it's much riskier, much more volatile, but in a bull trend, much more profitable if you buy it before those kinds of price spikes.
26:03 I want to make sure that we touch on the gold and silver companies as well. You've talked before about how it's a bit of a different type of gold and silver bull market right now for you where you're looking at the larger companies in addition to the smaller ones that are further down the food chain.
26:21 So, is that still how you're seeing it at the moment? >> Yeah, I'm looking at everything. I look at every company that I talk to and talk to companies all day long and trying to find new opportunities for my readers in Gold Newsletter. And so I judge each company on its own merits, not where it is in the food chain.
26:44 But that said, I think the majors, the big producers, and even the mid-tier producers offer more upside potential with commensurately less risk than I've ever seen before. The developers have not moved as much as the majors yet. But I like them as well. The developers with these prices and with so much money available to the market now have the option of continuing to develop their projects, even bring them into production themselves.
27:15 An option that was not really there ever before. The juniors, the exploration end at the very bottom of the food chain, are not the ones that have really moved as a group yet. And I think there's a lot of opportunity there particularly because a lot of these companies have great projects and finally they have the money to adequately explore them.
27:41 And so there's a lot of drilling being done right now. We're seeing a lot of news come out. Our last issue of Gold Newsletter was one of the longest in our history. Just covering all the news that's coming in from our portfolio. So great drill results are coming in and importantly the market is rewarding good results.
28:03 So we're seeing that in share price appreciation for the companies that are able to deliver good news and I think there's a lot more good news coming up. >> Well that's always good to hear and I wonder, just another note on the gold miners. So they're reaping the benefits of these higher metals prices but how are their pipelines looking? I know that they haven't placed a lot of emphasis on exploration in recent years.
28:29 Do they need to start thinking about refilling their pipelines? >> Yeah, I think they need to. I think the market's going to demand that. As a group, the big producers are net debt-free. They are now in a positive cash position and rapidly building up those cash reserves. So there's only so much stock you can buy back.
28:53 There is only so much you can pay out in dividends. I think the market will demand, I think they will have this money burning a hole in their figurative pockets and will start going out to try and rebuild that supply pipeline. There are some great projects, some great companies out there that are near the top of the list for acquisition and you know there could be a bidding war.
29:19 I hope there is for these projects there and again there's the option for companies to actually develop their own projects. So there won't be any urgency on the companies to be acquired. They can always keep progressing, building value and even developing their projects. >> Well that will be interesting to watch for.
29:44 And while we're on companies I want to mention copper stocks as well. So, we know that you're bullish on copper for the long term and the prices for copper are reaching all-time highs recently. So, for the companies, it's my impression at least that the copper companies aren't really, I mean, they're moving higher, of course, but they're not necessarily reacting as much as you might think given what the price is doing.
30:07 So, what's your take on what's happening there? >> Yeah, I think that's going to change shortly. We did see copper prices soar to all-time records. That was largely due to the threat of copper tariffs coming from the Trump administration. And as we speak, we saw a really big pullback in copper. Dramatic pullback in the copper price because those tariffs, insider sources say that those tariffs may not be put into effect.
30:39 There's some second-guessing on the part of the Trump administration as far as those tariffs, but the fundamentals for copper remain in place. There are severe supply restrictions on new copper development. It takes a lot of time to bring copper onto the market and the demand curve for copper is as steep as it's been for any commodity in recent history.
31:11 So it is an inevitability that copper prices will trade much higher. There will be wiggles in the line. But I continue to say that people need to look at copper and copper plays as set it and forget it investments. Just buy it, get your position, wait a few years, and it's going to be very rewarding. Yeah, it's always so tempting to get caught up in the headlines and what's going on right now, but definitely sounds like that is one we can leave for the long term.
31:40 As we're wrapping up here, we've covered a lot of ground today, but are there any other final thoughts you would leave investors with? Things that you think people might be missing in the market right now? >> Well, I think this is again, this is something I've been saying for a while.
31:56 This is a generational opportunity and we're very fortunate to have two concurrent bull markets side by side. One in the monetary metals of gold and silver and the other in really every other metal and mineral and commodity out there, a commodity super cycle if you will, driven by rising demand and severe supply constraints and really years and years of underinvestment in exploration and development. So, we're very fortunate.
32:24 It is a target-rich environment and there are a lot of opportunities out there, really more than I've ever seen in my long career. So, I encourage people to not get overwhelmed by what's happening, not get overwhelmed by the number of opportunities, but realize that this is your chance to make an historic amount of money.
32:51 Really life-changing returns if you get involved, if you take the time to sift through all the opportunities available, find the best ones, spend the money and the time and the brain power to research the market and educate yourself, because I don't know that we're ever going to get this kind of opportunity again.
33:13 >> Well, I think that's a perfect note to end on. Thank you so much for coming on to talk about what you see happening and of course once again we will have the conference details in the video description and hopefully we see some people out there. >> Thank you so much Charlotte. >> Of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLeod with investingnews.
33:34 com and this is Brien Lundin with Gold Newsletter and the New Orleans Investment Conference. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below.