Title: Hold Cash — But Load Up On Commodities Show: In the Money with Amber Kanwar Guest: Chad Larson (MLDD Wealth / Canaccord Genuity — tactical balanced fund manager) Date: 2026-06-16 URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL1bomS11qU Length: 48:08 Note: fillers (um/uh/you know/like as verbal tic) and stutters removed; wording otherwise verbatim. Auto-transcript name fixes: "Trirican"=Trican, "Camo"=Cameco, "next energy"=NexGen, "the socks"=SOXX, "Brian Pace Braga"=Brian Paes-Braga, "Aabask"=Athabasca, "Laurent"=Laurent (Ferreira), "Greg Ebble/Ebel"=Greg Ebel, "Rupert's gold"=Rupert Resources.
00:00 not a bear at all. My largest holding is cash and my cash weighting is almost 20%. >> His largest holding is cash and he's investing in small caps and natural resources. >> But in downtown Calgary today, I've never seen more private equity. I think we're 5 years into a 15-year bull cycle for energy.
00:19 >> We speak with Chad Larson who oversees more than $1.5 billion and has a number one tactical balanced fund in the country. >> Generally 80% of the stock's move has everything to do with the sector. What is the new 2026 trade that was as good as gold last year? Do you have that yet or is that why you're in cash? When is CNQ going to participate in the energy trade? It's down 12% from that peak in March.
00:40 What do you do with the CNQ? Longevity is such a big theme. How are we going to live to 100? Are there public ways to play that? >> I think there's about to be some public proxies >> in Canada teasing an IPO. Can't wait. When you choose a Raymond James adviser, you're getting more than independent financial management.
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02:02 The host and guest may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial adviser or professional before making any investment decisions. In this episode, we talk about Canadian Natural Resources, which is a stock that I own. Hey everyone, welcome to a brand new episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar.
02:20 On this episode, we've got Chad Larson of MLDD Wealth. He runs the number one tactical balanced fund in the country over many time horizons, 1, three, and 5 years. Part of how he did that is he rode gold prices higher. Gold in 2026 has been a lot more volatile. And he tells us exactly what he's been doing, how he's been trimming back in some ways and adding in more speculative ways.
02:46 Generally though, he's got sort of a mixed approach to the investing portfolio. A big chunk of his weighting is in cash, but he says he's not bearish. Yes, he's looking for opportunities in the AI trade, maybe just not in some of the traditional tech ways that you would think. He likes the infrastructure plays that are underneath that.
03:06 So, we talk about all of that in this episode. And of course, we talk about the energy trade as well, which he says he's really bullish about. We're bullish about going to the Calgary Stampede. We can finally reveal what the big show in Calgary is going to be. Jillian, what day is it? July. July 8th.
03:26 We are inviting you to an exclusive intimate conversation with the CEO of Enbridge. We've got Greg Ebel joining us for a 1-hour live show. If you want to be part of it, you can email us stampede@inthemoneypod.com. If you're going to be in Calgary on July 8th in the morning, we would love for you to be part of our live studio audience as we talk to Ebel about one of the key issues in this country, Canada as an energy superpower.
04:01 And last fall, he gave a pretty stark message about what Canada should be doing. He says, "It is time now to build or risk getting left behind." And this is the kind of talk that maybe was whispered about even by these pipeline companies years ago, but now these companies are getting more and more emboldened to speak about what Canada needs to do to get its act together.
04:28 So I'm very excited for that sort of nation-building conversation that we'll be having with Greg Ebel and I would love for you to be part of it. Remember, email us at stampede@inthemoneypod.com and I hope we'll see you there. Let's get into today's episode. Chad, thank you so much for joining me on the podcast.
04:52 >> Thanks for having me, Amber. >> There's a lot to chew on in the markets directionally. This just feels like the most exciting week ever, right? The settlement, a possible settlement, I should say, between the US and Iran. SpaceX done and dusted and it went well and it didn't break the markets, at least not so far.
05:15 And earnings, they're growing, it's supportive. >> How does all of that sit with you? Are you ready to be so unabashedly enthusiastic about the markets? >> No, we are living in interesting times. I think whether you were a SpaceX early investor or not, I wasn't.
05:33 I probably wouldn't be here sitting here today. But you had to root for that to happen and to go well, this wave of liquidity of new issuance coming into the market and even Google's issuing equity, one of the most cash-rich companies in the world. There was a risk from call it the smart money or the fundamentalists or the old school guys to say there's just too much going on.
05:54 There's too much liquidity coming into the market. We see the Buffett index at 240% of GDP to the total value of the stock market. It's never been higher. So, there's this meltup where everyone's nervous to break. And so you had to root for the SpaceX IPO to go well. So, I see you got your EBIT sweaters, it's earnings before Ian tariffs and Donald announcements >> and we're seeing that happening play out live.
06:24 So, obviously some cooling down into the Iran situation is going to bolster markets, but I don't say unabashedly, I'm not bullish or bearish. I think we just have to pick our spots. I'm really worried about nascent beta in the market. And really, >> what does that mean? >> I think the market's running on gamma.
06:44 Like, I'm running like the Incredible Hulk. It's green and nothing has broken this thing. But when the Hulk runs out of gamma, he's just Bruce Banner. And gamma is a nerdy finance term and we'll get close to it if not, but if you look at the call option volumes that are being bought in the S&P, it is unbelievable.
07:04 And so to delta hedge that on the other side, dealers have to buy the market. >> We're going through the Greek alphabet today. >> Yeah. So, here we go. So it's that casino effect. Everyone has made money in the market and I just don't know who becomes that next marginal buyer all the time. US investors are all in on equities.
07:24 We've never seen so much equity ownership. Feels like kind of like a housing crisis again when your barber's talking to you about Nvidia call options. There's a problem generally. So, but it's not a hollow market. Earnings are real. And I think we can bring it all back to this whole AI thing. Is it real? And it is.
07:44 It's starting to print and we're seeing the opportunities into part of the physical economy. Now >> I want to pick away at some of what you said but first I want to start with the issuance and the fact that we went from a very long period like 20 years where the amount of equity out there was actually shrinking >> and now that is poised to change not just with SpaceX and all these stocks issuing additional equity.
08:07 We've got Anthropic and OpenAI which are going to need dollars to be found elsewhere. How do you think about, is that another risk that the market will just bulldoze right over the fact that now there's additional equity that needs to be sapped up? >> They can bulldoze over thinking about it.
08:24 A problem isn't a problem unless you're thinking about it, and everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. At some point we've been running hot on endless liquidity. So I think the other side of that sword cuts when the US market has been such a driver of wealth of net worth, the other side of that coin hurts equally as much because it is a consumption-based economy.
08:52 So if their portfolios shrink and corrections are normal and crashes will happen and I think that will change consumer behavior so fast it'll contract the market quicker. >> So not bullish not bearish but staying invested. Where do you go for safety? >> Great question. So, it's funny when we'll get down the path. My largest holding and I am not a bear at all.
09:14 My largest holding is cash significantly. So, aside from call it my day job. So I run a large multi-family office with Canaccord Genuity, I also manage a prospectus-cleared mutual fund. And my cash weighting is almost 20%. In a 60/40 balanced fund. >> Tell me why. >> And tell me why that's not bearish. >> Yeah, great.
09:35 Cash is optionality and cash are bullets. Never waste a good opportunity unless you can swing at it. So I think the optionality there is, the fund has performed incredibly well. I was unfortunate, last year was the number one performing fund in the country. And we had an incredible start to the year.
09:52 So I kind of made the Max Verstappen F1 analogy. We are leading pace right now and we are a couple laps ahead of benchmark. So maybe we do see some clouds in the market. We're not retiring from the race. We've just put medium grip tires on. And I just think that analogy was, we're doing really well.
10:12 We don't need to squeeze the last bit of pace out of our tires and stay on slick tires in case things get a little rainy. >> What allowed you to be the top performer? What sector were you all in? >> Gold. >> That's it. It was that easy. Honestly, it was that easy. And so then you took profit at that I imagine at a good time because now gold is >> was struggling.
10:32 It was struggling, now with Iran it's back popping. What do you make of this cool off period that we've had in gold? >> It's funny, everything's a function of your cost base and you know this everywhere. Okay, gold entered a bear market because it pulled back 20%. Well okay, 20% from a really big number.
10:51 So I think the market will kind of restabilize, it'll be just higher for longer and things will tape. But I'm an allocator by background, that's, we look at sector, I think you pick the lane before you pick the car. So this cooling off period I think is a re-opportunity to reposition as well. So we did take a lot of beta off but really stuck with our alpha picks where the companies can pick and shovel their way through to the next valuation stage.
11:16 >> What does that mean? Does that mean you take off small caps and >> No, I actually took the large caps off and then go into >> Yeah, we're going to have value at risk somewhere and so when the weighting gets to us I'm still very constructive the sector but if I can get leverage to my dollar by having alpha or what I perceive to be alpha and I can be wrong and I'm wrong a lot of the time but I want to look at how much capital I have at risk and I'm able to take off beta where I think, gold also
11:46 became like a trust trade from a fear trade and back and forth and I think it was a source of liquidity that everyone was looking for when things got weird. It started acting opposite, and so people are so guilty of cutting their flowers and watering their weeds. Everyone made money in the trade so everyone started taking it out and when that high mark misses they start taking it out faster.
12:10 So I think the trade will set up again. >> So you're sticking with the risky plays that could do well if gold prices move higher. I imagine now it's a lower portion of your portfolio though cuz you >> correct. >> So what is the new 2026 trade that was as good as gold last year? Do you have that yet or is that why you're in cash because you don't really see that conviction? >> Yeah, the conviction is I know the easy money got made.
12:36 But we're still structurally bullish. Other parts of the market style sector geographies and natural resources is one of them. Well, let's talk about that as it pertains to the energy trade. Oil has been something of a messy trade, right? Obviously, it shot up after the strait of Hormuz was closed, but in the last month, it's down like 20%.
12:56 The energy stocks don't know what to do with that. They're down, but not as much. What do you do with this mess of the energy sector? >> Yeah, it's a mess and it's still a miss. When we look at it, the sector was left for dead for years and kind of in the early 2000s as kind of everything got greenwashed for a while and obviously there was some challenging things to navigate it federally with access to tidewater etc.
13:25 So it was a trade that was just missed and become a mess. I believe there's I think two energy specialists left that trade >> >> the book and you know both of them. We look at the weightings into the index, there's just not a lot of liquidity in it. And I think you're having again those beta traders saying straight away moves opening, oil must come down.
13:47 So the oil trade gets sold down and they're being looked at as hedging as just proxies into global growth, I think. But from decades of underinvestment, obviously tying things back to the AI trade, it's not just oil, it's energy. And I have to go back to notes, but I think on the equivalent oil equivalent barrels per day used now, not just oil, is 300 plus million barrels of energy equivalent used.
14:12 We're going to need more. And so I think you're going to start to see more investment. And you're looking in downtown Calgary today, there's, I've never seen more private equity. The meetings are happening. Capital is looking, it is being deployed. And so I think some of these assets, I just look at them as fantastic opportunities to accumulate and build that book because I think we're 5 years into a 15-year bull cycle for energy.
14:36 >> That's interesting. So Canadian energy producers you think are, we think about private equity kicking the tire on data centers and all that exciting stuff. You see them kicking the tires on Canadian energy assets. How different is that? >> It's not different. It's just been a while and it's welcome to see.
14:54 I think Canada was kind of left for dead foreign investment for a long time. It just wasn't a regime that was super open to that. And you're starting to see some changes or at least posturing and positioning ahead of changes or more kind of an open foreign investment platform.
15:11 One of the things I hear, some of the bears on energy talk about is the fact that the strait of Hormuz did close and things were dicey but the whole world did not shut down and in fact people just pivoted. I pivoted in my own life, right? I drive the electric car. I don't drive the gas car. Because gas prices are up.
15:34 Like we have a lot more options than we did call it 10, 20 years ago when a similar crisis maybe really would have put, outside of Canada, no country went into a recession because of this. >> Mhm. We'll come back to the outside of Canada one. Listen, I think you're also walking into a supply shock situation.
15:56 I would say behind the scenes of rooms I'm definitely not in. I think people were a lot more nervous than they would play off, strategic reserves of oil were depleted. And I think that backlog effect, it's a little bit like tugging the elastic band. So we use up some strategic oil reserves. And I think there were some countries that shut down airports like they didn't have jet fuel.
16:19 Oil and energy in general, and as you've seen with a scarier world that we live in, globalization's over, it's nationalism and it's domestic national security. Energy will be something again, wars will still be fought for it all the time. >> So you're holding a bit of gold, you're holding energy, you're also holding cash. How can you do all three of those things and still buy into >> it's messy >> the hot AI trade right >> it's messy. The hot AI trade, so I also run a model portfolio. We call it MLDD
16:52 AI 2030 and the thesis was really building a portfolio on the physical backbone of AI. So I don't know which nerdy guy or girl is going to make the coolest new mom-and-pop app or whatever it might be, but I know it's got to be powered and I know it has to be cooled and I know it has to have data and so it's the backbone and that setup plays well into what I do for a living or what I'm comfortable doing for a living with an economics background.
17:20 These are the durable parts of the economy. Everything from lithium, rare earth, copper, energy, pipelines. These are things I think are the energy, are the AI trade. Let's talk about one part of the market. We've got a question about it in the mailbag. Let's get into that. Now, the mailbag is brought to you by Hamilton ETFs.
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19:23 MIX is designed to seek long-term growth with a more balanced and more manageable investing experience. A modern mix of stocks, bonds, and gold built for today's market. For more information, visit hamiltonetfs.com or visit the link in the show notes. Okay. So, when you talk about the backbone of the AI trade, we have to talk about semiconductors.
19:49 I mean, it's been an absolute rocket. I've often quoted now semiconductors make up I think it's like 40% of the S&P 500. It's 10% of global stock market value is now semiconductors. And a couple of years ago, it was two. >> Yeah. >> So we have a question. Do you have a favorite semiconductor name? This question coming from Ralph.
20:10 My question is, does this make sense? Right. Just cuz it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. >> This is the famous last words. It's different this time. This is, semis are the muscle of the AI trade. I prefer to own the skeleton underneath, the power, the copper, the cooling. The chips can't run without that stuff.
20:28 So my favorite way to play it, and I have played it, as an allocator was by the index, the ETF that supports that entire, the SOXX, and the SOXX has been on tilt. It's the best chart ever that you want to be on and god forbid you be against it. And it's kind of funny, you look at the derivatives that fall off of even something like SOXX.
20:50 Like the market has become gamified. It has become a gambler's paradise. Everyone is tolerant of upwards volatility and like I said everyone has a plan to get punched in the face but there's two and three and four times directionally levered derivatives on the SOXX itself, it is playing with weapons of mass destruction. So I'm going to bring SOXX right back to energy. 10% of global value and yes they are necessary, ask yourself where do you see more relative value in the energy trade and this is that halo, these heavy
21:19 assets with low obsolescence and below replacement cost. So heavy assets, low obsolescence is halo. >> Yeah, I love the halo trade. The semis, the SOXX. So you own it. You're not picking a winner. Sounds like you're trimming. >> Yeah. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> It's been a while since we talked about SaaS apocalypse and anything kind of related.
21:43 This earning season was really interesting because some got through it, right? Some got through earnings and gave relief to the market, like okay it's not going to zero and some didn't, right? Like Adobe, Thomson Reuters is one of those names that's gotten caught up and the question is, it's very simple, do you buy the dips in Thomson Reuters >> again I'm not active in that name but it's the anti-Adobe, it's the incumbent where AI is the tailwind not the threat, they're >> the market is not treating it like that
22:17 it continues to bid it down. >> It does. And again, but I think everything seems to get painted with watercolor brushes right now. And that's where again looking for alpha is going to be important. I don't necessarily believe it's a directional bet against AI taking over parts of its model. We could go back to Adobe.
22:35 It's the test case of AI whether it's going to be a wrecking ball for incumbent software. So, it's just not somewhere I want to be trading. >> It's not. Okay. So you're out and that's, is it in the bucket of it's just too hard but it's like you just don't know because Claude could come out with something that does disrupt the business model.
22:57 It's just that the risk has never been more real. >> Yeah. And so call it maybe more background a little bit. I'm more of an allocator. I definitely when I look at the sector style geography first, I kind of leave the last 10% as I do SMA a lot of the capital that we do manage, and so when I'm looking at an individual name I don't have an expertise in that one, so I just avoid >> a software as a sector you're >> I'd leave that to the smart guys, okay >> I'll take the sector play when
23:29 appropriate weighted >> and you're not ready yet >> I'm not ready >> okay let's talk about space in depth. Obviously the SpaceX IPO, I'm curious about whether you would have bought that after the IPO. Investors, it's doing well post IPO, but then there were the space stocks that got a huge bid. And we have a question about Canada's MDA Space.
23:52 Naturally, as SpaceX became available, MDA sold down. But it's up huge over the past year. What do you do with it? >> It's infrastructure in orbit. It's a Canadian hard asset story hiding in plain sight. Big backlog, big pipeline. I like it. I don't own it.
24:13 But I think the interesting one was, look at Stack Capital, STCK. It was getting a derivative of how to participate in SpaceX and it's sold off. It got crushed. Because people, reality and how people want to view themselves are going to always be different. There's that difference between your ideal self and your actual self.
24:32 The story you tell to yourself and the story you present to others. And I think again capital has to come from somewhere. But I think MDA will look really interesting. >> How much did they invest at Capital? >> That was like 30% of their book. >> Yeah, and just to watch the IPO be massively successful. >> 8 million.
24:50 Yeah, they invested 8 million and turned that into like >> a big number >> and then to get crushed off NAV, like what did it trade down on Friday? Big >> trade % you're sitting there going look I'm kind of invested in SpaceX and bonk out. [laughter] >> They were like well now I can invest in the real thing.
25:07 We've got a question on Canadian banks which in many ways are going to benefit from all this excitement in the public markets. They're trading at records. We've been talking about this in some of our previous episodes. Do you have a favorite bank? Do you like the sector? >> I do have a favorite bank. National Bank. It's the hedge fund of banks.
25:29 I think Laurent is an incredible CEO. I have a lot of respect for him. And yeah, it's by far my favorite bank. >> Okay. So, you like National here. It's so funny because it's not really an underdog anymore, but it was, it's the smallest of the large. The knock against it was, well too exposed to Canada.
25:49 I like the banks with the US exposure and they do have some international exposure that's worked really well for them. But yeah, just really that at home execution >> at home execution. And I think when you can be too big, like where do you move? You just, you're just stuck in your chair.
26:09 And I think National has just done an incredible job of navigating >> expensive and that's the knock, right? Are we paying 16 times forward earnings for National? Are we okay with that? >> Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. >> Okay, I like it. You've mentioned you like the backbone of the AI trade. And you mentioned copper.
26:26 Do you have a favorite way to play copper? This question coming from Ronnie. >> Listen, copper is the metal everything runs through. And you can't print it or substitute it. So, I'm all in on copper. I think I'm going to give you two ways to play copper. I do own both of them. And they're wildly different. One is own the whole trade.
26:45 I don't know who's going to be right. I don't want to wake up one morning and find some mine shaft collapsed or this went wrong in some foreign country or jurisdiction. And so directionally and tangentially, I just want to be long an allocation to the producer. So I'll buy a COPX or something like that.
27:03 If you want to >> this is the copper miners ETF COPX. Okay. >> Just own the trade and just be long and forget about it. You don't have to worry as much. But if you really want some significant leverage to the space, like I'm going to really caution this is not financial advice.
27:24 I am long the stock so I don't want to look like I'm trading my own book here. But King's Copper KCP, it is a highly levered play in Peru to copper and if it works it's going to work big. >> And so it's a small cap 280 million and >> no permitting, no drilling, all air. >> Okay, good. At least you're getting it all out. I don't have to say that.
27:48 >> You don't have to say this out loud. The people, the assets look great and if it works it is a big asset but it is so far from being anything real but I think a small, for me personally a small allocation is something that if it works it will have that leverage to give me significant alpha >> it seems like you like to pair that, you like your safe trade maybe through a broad section ETF and then you like just a little lottery ticket just to see, in A lot of times I'm
28:21 paying for the lottery ticket with the gains that I've made because by the time you decide that hey we like energy or hey we like copper, hey we like gold, how can anyone run around and get smart enough, meet all the management teams, kick the tires, look at the assets, do all this stuff and come up with prudent due diligence to be able to select a single name where we're going to have significant conviction of it.
28:45 >> Generally 80% of a stock's move has everything to do with the sector. So when we call the sector right, we end up getting smarter in the sector. We do start spending more time in it. We do meet more people. I've been doing this for 23 odd years now and I've forged incredible relationships institutionally and in private and public sector.
29:06 So you get the chance to find some alpha and I've learned to be invested with certain people and certain partners through parts of the cycle and it's had leverage. >> Okay, we've got a question on Canadian natural resources. Definitely less speculative than King's Copper, but it's so interesting.
29:25 The best day for CNQ was just a week or two after the war and then it's been kind of just a trade lower and it really took a while. We know, me and Jillian know cuz we were shareholders. It was like when is CNQ going to participate in the energy trade and it didn't and then it's kind of the first one that investors like, okay it's done.
29:45 It's down 12% from that peak in March. >> What do you do with the CNQ? >> You never bet against Murray Edwards. You ride his coattails. It is not the boring way to play energy. If you look kind of pre-COVID to now, like just the growth, and it's not the share price.
30:03 Look at the barrels and the reserves quietly, prudently and ruthlessly. They've built a proxy for what I think is a great business. Long life, low decline assets and a relentless operator. I think Murray is an elite investor. You're getting an incredible dividend. You just own it. This is a forget-about story of compounding.
30:22 He's compounding barrels in the ground and I do believe long-term barrels are going to be more valuable. >> Okay, that was as definitive as it gets. Lockheed Martin is a stock that we've got questions on. Defense surprisingly rolling over after the war. And now that it seems like there's a framework for peace and at least peace in the next 60 days, guess what? The defense stocks are still down.
30:46 >> People are trading too fast, like port everything again, the market has been top right but I said portfolios can be like bars of soap. The more you play with them the smaller they get. [laughter] And you don't want to drop it. I say with Lockheed and some of the defense names, it was a meltup.
31:04 Everyone's like okay this is happening. Trump went around and said we're no longer going to be the world police. Everyone has to do their own thing. And look at the NATO, but remember a lot of these things are long long long lead time and just because there's maybe a peace today for two seconds doesn't mean these 10 15 20 year backlogs don't get pushed through but at what price, that's one that I've had to be cautious on, I can talk to Lockheed, I've owned it, I do own it and I own the defense sector ETFs as well
31:36 >> and is that just because defense spending is going up, is it as simple as that >> it's as simple as that but at what price. And I think that's some of the worrier parts, that I think again the easy money got made, now fast money leaves quick >> and so now we look and the same trade setup with CNQ is everyone says okay this is going to happen, the thing happens and then they leave so I think you're just having rotational capital leaving and trying to chase the next thing >> and it's also like we talk about this
32:02 like a fortified bull market and then you've got a Lockheed Martin which has rolled over year to date, it's still up % but it's well off of its highs. It speaks to kind of like people talk at breadth in the market. And I think only a third of S&P 500 companies are outperforming so far in 2026.
32:24 So you've got this big basket that >> isn't doing well. Is that exciting for you as a stock picker? Does it speak more to index investing? Because it sounds like you do both. So you're in a good position to tell me. >> Yeah. Let's just go back in our time machine. We're talking about the magnificent 7 and it was like the heavy lifting being done by just the things and what did the S&P 493 look like and so you're going to see that and that's what makes me nervous, when we'll talk defense and I'm going to
32:53 pair it back to energy and I'm going to pair a compliment to not a competitor a colleague in the defense sector, analogous to what I think the energy, you have to find alpha because this at valuation at what price. There's just not enough breadth across coverage for these to participate.
33:16 So, I will look to select, I will tap people on the shoulder at that point and say I want the best defense manager because I don't think just an ETF works here. >> And so, in certain, again, back to being an allocator, it's style is one part, geography, currency, etc., but within style, just because I call the right sector, I might want to have a value tilt because I'm not ready to go all in.
33:38 At some point, I will want growth and momentum. And so, you have to tailor your style along with your segment. And I think with defense right now, there's just rotational money coming out of it because the breadth isn't there. >> Okay. We've got a question on uranium.
33:54 Is that, you mentioned you like AI infrastructure theme. >> You could lump uranium in there. >> I'm like everyone else here on the uranium, I follow your podcast. So listen, yeah, I own HURA. >> And again, none of this is financial advice is what I'm doing. I'm a professional guys. >> HURA, oh the ETF. Yeah. >> Yeah.
34:18 And so that's giving me my sector play. It's giving me exposure. I do own Cameco. Yes, it's expensive. It's one I look at a lot and go this is getting crazy, function of multiples of book. I like the Westinghouse optionality on it and then NexGen, it's really tough when you look at the market cap for pre-revenue, but with the way they talk their book, Rook One, I think they're expecting, again these are their numbers, it to be almost 20% of global supply, pair this all back to that halo, these heavy assets with low
34:52 obsolescence and scarcity. Come back to energy. When you have assets that will be significant parts of world supply of something, why are we talking about six times cash flow or nine times cash flow? Like these are irreplaceable assets and they will carry I think at some point valuations that support that.
35:16 I look at, coming back to the energy trade, Athabasca Energy, every, the sector trades these things as a function of cash flow in low single-digit multiples, I have like reserve life indexes of 90 >> like anytime I can pay six or seven times something for 90 years worth of action it just seems like a good trade. I want to end with our final question which is like a hard left in terms of topic but it's about Campbell Soup.
35:41 And I want to marry it with what we're talking about because it seems like when people talk about exuberance in AI the place that they're going for defense, and they do call it defense, is I'm going to stick with infrastructure. I'm going to stick with commodities. And it used to be back in the olden days when you're going for safety, people say staples, health, Johnson and Johnson, even healthcare.
36:06 And both of those sectors just >> just left for dead. They don't even pick up in a safety trade. They've done poorly post, during the war, like this didn't benefit at all from a safety trade. So we can talk about Campbell in particular, but maybe too the death of staples and healthcare as the safety.
36:28 >> Yeah, the RJR and Nabiscos, the barbarians at the gate for sure. But listen, I think it's cheap for a reason. It's a brand business getting designed out by weekly injection. The GLP-1 market, I think the world has changed a little bit. But also, it's a I think it's that classic value trap setup.
36:48 It's the opposite of a halo. Like no one cares what kind of tomato soup they're going to drink or eat or whatever. They just no one cares. So when your flagship product can be easily replicated and moved across supply chains I think you're going to just continue to lose market share and then the fattier snacks and kind of saturated polies, maybe in another segment I'll give you my long-winded view of the longevity trade which I think will be the next big thing.
37:18 But no >> Let's do it here because I think it's actually interesting to marry >> with this Campbell Soup, because from a stock picking perspective, you look at a 7% dividend yield, 10 times earnings, it's loaded with debt. I didn't appreciate how much. So, this is the kind of stock that would really lure me in, but I'm not going to do it this time.
37:38 >> And so >> you called it a value trap. What, longevity is such a big theme, all my friends are talking about. We're not having enough protein. How are we going to live to 100? >> Are there public ways to play that? Brian Johnson's Twitter popping up. >> I think I can talk to this.
37:59 There's about to be, I think there's about to be some public proxies. >> Oh, okay. In Canada? >> Yeah. >> Oh, can you speak to it? We don't know. >> I don't think so. >> What world does it play in, like when it comes to longevity? In the amino acids and peptide space and lend kind of like biologics with stem cells.
38:20 >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> Teasing an IPO. Can't wait. Well, let's talk about stuff that you can talk about and we'll get into your pro pick. Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. With over 100 billion in assets, ATB Financial is powering possibilities for more than 843,000 financial services clients.
38:46 ATB Capital Markets is a leading North American investment firm providing holistic corporate and capital markets advice and full-service financial solutions. Visit atb.com/inthemoney for more information. With the caveat that you are mostly in cash and you're playing some ETF for sector bets and that's what the majority of your portfolio is.
39:11 You've brought us three smaller individual stock ideas that are some I think you could say are more on the speculative side but this is like where we can have a little bit of fun. Sure. >> So the first one is Gold X2 Mining. Mhm. >> Talk to me about why. And just a refresher, the context is you made a ton of money in gold last year.
39:32 You've been taking that exposure down, but you still like to keep some of these speculative plays and I imagine Gold X2 is one of them. >> It is. So again, I'll preface this, my compliance say all the bad things. I have to say that, I know you have the precaveats but under, this is not financial advice and please consult, and do your own research but investing in by default is risky.
39:58 I met an interesting character and the story goes back almost 12 plus years. I was flying on a plane to Frankfurt. I met a young gentleman and chatted him up on the plane and exchanged business cards and it turned out to be a gentleman named Brian Paes-Braga. And Brian at the time was the CEO of Lithium X. >> He monetized that business and our lives went in different directions and we stayed in touch and started doing business together.
40:26 When Brian gets involved in things, magic has tended to happen. And Brian has partnered with the SAF group, one of Canada's largest private credit firms as well. And so when I looked at that play in the business, for me it was the 60 seconds, it's real.
40:44 It's district-scale gold deposit in a tier one jurisdiction. It's where is it? >> It's in Canada. It's in Ontario. It's off the highway. There's hydro power and rail. So it's not a story on a map and it's not in some weird obscure part of the world. So it's backed by Brian and his group and along with Michael Hess of Hess Capital.
41:00 So along with a global gold major Anglo Gold Ashanti took a 9.9 strategic stake and so they've raised, just they closed on another hundred million dollar financing, it outlines a multi-billion dollar long life mine. They continued through the drill bit. They were planning a US uplisting and a TSX mainboard uplift sometime in 2026 and that's the company's guidance but where we have large ounces moving through the stages when I originally entered into the story is much lower than where it is today and it did pull
41:34 back from almost a $2 print, I don't know where it's trading here >> $1.43 >> okay, well last week I was adding >> yeah, oh you were okay >> yeah so I wish, did I trim it too, sure, it was a multi-bagger for the portfolios and for clients. So we did trim the book back, I'm not a total animal [laughter] totally all in.
41:56 But when as something advances through its stages, yeah gold's pulled back a little bit but we're modeling these things out at $3,100 gold and gold still remains well above those prints. So no, I'm a big fan of that story. >> Okay. So you were buying the weakness last week you said. And yeah, I guess today it shows like gold is up and the stock is up 7%.
42:17 So, it's a lot more >> little more leverage >> leverage to the upside. What has to go right in order for this trade to work? And is it a takeout candidate? >> Yeah, both. What has to go right is the simplicity. Now, they got to turn drill bits around in circles and get results and continue to enhance. And the company is working towards trying to put a $10 million ounce resource together and if you look at like what happened with Rupert's gold based on those takeout metrics there's an
42:45 opportunity for multiple legs of return from here too. So they got to keep turning the bit. The world hasn't have to end. And I don't think Anglo Hess, what's the market cap of Anglo Hess? They're monstrous. It's a significant player. They don't write checks for any kind of reason.
43:03 And so yeah, I do believe it's a takeout candidate. >> Okay. So the market cap on Anglo Gold Ashanti is 47 billion. Cash cost, they like that, they're mining less than, it costs less than what the price of, okay so low cost producer. >> Low cost. Your second one is Trican Well Services. >> So, services, proxy of the energy trade.
43:29 Why do you like it here? >> I like OFS, the oil field services setup. Again, how do we continue to play? When energy works, no one makes more money than oil field services. But listen, when the sector turns, it gets real ugly. Some of the wealthiest people I know come from and some of the most bankrupted people I've known have come from both the same place.
43:50 So in that wild wild west when we do see a bull market in energy we want to have some positioning in and around that. So it's Canada's market leading pressure pumper and it screens to its larger cap peers in the US. Screens very well. Let's just say that. So it's a direct kind of LNG Canada derivative as export demand ramps and the completion work that they do get they get paid for will accelerate and they start being the price maker not the price taker. So
44:23 >> that's a big debate or a big question in this sector. I see a lot of commentary on, I forget who wrote it but it was like these services companies need to put on their big boy pants and raise prices. Is that >> they need to all get in a room? >> Yeah. >> So you find that's true and do you see that as a key opportunity that they'll be able to have that leverage to do so? >> Absolutely.
44:50 And they will and because they all work against themselves, just utilization. It is a very, obviously a very capital intensive business as well, but it's also very people intensive business. They want to keep their crews working. These are the backbone hardworking people out there turning wrenches and making sure we all have warm houses at night.
45:08 And so I think when it's just a function of capacity versus the capitalization of how much horsepower they have or trucks or fleets. So when you have increased activity, they're going to have to just raise prices. It's just a function of supply demand. So I think pricing power will come back in this favor of OFS and it's straight to the bottom line.
45:26 >> Okay. The third pick, most speculative of them all. Surge Battery Metals, smallest market cap 185 million in market cap looking for battery metals for the EV space, what is exciting, tell us a little bit >> yeah listen, this is the same X2 trade setup. They just announced a strategic financing co-led by Brian Paes-Braga and Michael >> so it's another Brian >> it's another Brian, it's a Brian special and in a resource market I want to be long of Brian special and listen it's a high-grade domestic US
46:00 lithium project. It's a textbook halo, scarce, strategic, slow to build, the large scale PEA from the company. So it's that same group, same setup. This financing there, the new people sponsoring the transaction putting in 35, $36 million. So fully funds Nevada North to a construction decision with a planned rename to Lithium X2 and a NASDAQ up list.
46:27 So validated by the same very partners that have done very well. >> So it's a Nevada lithium play. >> Yeah. >> And there's a lot of those >> big players. How close are they to their borders? >> We'll see. This is very speculative, but there's big pounds. I was going to call it ounces or barrels, but these are big pounds in friendly, but yes, there are a lot of them.
46:50 And >> and you've seen car companies take direct stakes. Yeah. >> In some of these. So I think that's again the validation of people that have done it in the space, have been able to commercialize, have been able to take mines to production or to be M&A or strategically bankable.
47:06 >> So, is this one where you would own the lit ETF, the lithium battery ETF? Correct. >> And then this is your lottery ticket >> taste, for who it would make sense for. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> All right. Yeah. Risk risk risk >> risk risk risk. >> But and maybe potentially reward.
47:23 It has been a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining me. That's Chad Larson joining us of MLDD Wealth. Don't miss our next episode. We've got Larry McDonald joining us of the Bear Traps Report. Yes, he's often bearish, but guess what? He's also talking about the halo trade. He loves those hard assets infrastructure plays.
47:42 We'll get his thoughts on the current market, especially around these tech stocks. If you've got questions, email questions@inthemoneypod.com or find us anywhere on social media at in the moneypod.