Charles Cryer — The billion-tonne copper project nobody knows about (yet)
Oroco Resource's new CEO — the ex-RFC Ambrian banker whose 2018 report "The Cupboard Is Nearly Bare" screened the world for independent billion-tonne copper projects — lays out a cyclical + short-term + structural copper squeeze (smelter treatment charges now negative) and pitches Santo Tomas in Sinaloa, Mexico: near-surface, ~1 billion tonnes, a US$1.48B NPV at $4 copper against a ~US$170M market cap.
⚠ Issuer interview, not independent analysis. Cryer is Oroco's CEO pitching his own company, and the host Jay Martin says he is a shareholder too. The copper-market framing is useful; the Oroco numbers are company disclosures (a 2024 PEA), not an independent valuation.
One-line take: copper is tight on three layers — cyclical (20 years of under-investment, falling grades, Chile's weak first half), short-term (the Grasberg outage, Hormuz cutting sulfur for SX-EW producers) and structural demand (electrification, then AI data-center power) — with TC/RCs swinging from +$90/t to −$150/t, meaning smelters now pay miners. The deficit "we haven't really got to yet" favours the handful of billion-tonne deposits still in independent hands; Cryer argues Santo Tomas trades at ~12% of its PEA NPV because of legacy AMLO-era Mexico risk that Plan Mexico inclusion is now removing. Catalysts: drilling done by year-end, updated resource ~Feb 2027, PFS ~June 2027 — then a sale, since "Oroco is not going to mine it."
1. Stocks & names mentioned
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| OCO.V | Oroco Resource Corp (TSXV) | SA · STK | Positive | His own company (CEO; issuer pitch). Santo Tomas: ~1B t near-surface, flat-lying porphyry in the Laramide belt; 2024 PEA = 100kt/yr Cu, 23-yr life, US$1.48B NPV, US$1B capex at $4 copper, strip ratio ~1.38:1. Market cap ~US$170M — "Mexico is the short answer." Only mining project in Plan Mexico's 40; 20,000 m drilling done by year-end, resource update ~Feb, PFS ~June 2027, then a sale. Last cash US$18M (Feb) + US$23M Canaccord bought deal; more capital needed for the PFS. | 10:22 |
| Copper | Copper (commodity) | — | Positive | "Higher prices for longer and we haven't really got to the crunch yet." Physical tightness shows in TC/RCs going from +$90/t to −$150/t (smelters paying miners); cyclical under-investment, short-term outages (Grasberg, Hormuz sulfur) and structural demand (electrification, AI power). His 2018 report "The Cupboard Is Nearly Bare" foresaw a 2030s deficit; new mines take 15–20 years. | 1:17 |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Grasberg's production decline is one of the short-term supply hits — slower to return to full output "than the market was expecting," but it will go away at some point. No view on the stock. | 2:10 |
Not tabled: Resolution, Morenci and Cananea (named only as Laramide-belt neighbours); JP Morgan (quoted, "it's different this time"). Oroco's ticker is not stated in the video (TSXV: OCO; US OTC: OROXF). The host's $760B AI capex figure and "60% goes to raw materials" are the host's, not Cryer's.
2. Talking points
1:17 Three layers of copper tightness
- Cyclical (20 years of low capex, ageing infrastructure, falling grades; Chile down in H1), short-term (Grasberg), structural (demand).
- TC/RCs from +$90/t to −$150/t in some areas — smelters now pay miners for concentrate.
2:52 Demand: electrification, then AI
- EVs only ramped in the last ~6 years; in the last 18 months AI arrived, and its constraint is power generation — "hugely copper intensive."
- RFC Ambrian's 2018 report "The Cupboard Is Nearly Bare" projected a 2030s deficit before AI was in the picture.
4:10 Hormuz and sulfur
- The Middle East war cuts sulfur exports through Hormuz, an input for SX-EW producers — a temporary hit on top of structural change.
- "We haven't really got to the crunch yet"; supply chains are splitting west/east, compounding the deficit.
7:33 The 2018 screen and how he got to Oroco
- Listed every global copper exploration project, filtered to independent projects of significant scale that could be M&A targets; Santo Tomas made the short list.
- Oroco became his client; he joined as CEO this year when the prior CEO resigned and the board wanted a market-facing lead.
10:22 Santo Tomas: a billion tonnes in the Laramide belt
- Laramide belt ~80% of North America's historic copper output (Resolution, Morenci, Cananea); discovered 1968, a 1994 PFS.
- 5 km strike, up to 1 km wide, ~500 m deep, at surface and flat-lying.
11:46 The 2024 PEA
- 100kt/yr copper, 23-year life, US$1.48B NPV, US$1B capex — at $4 copper, ~40% below today.
- One of "a couple of handfuls" of billion-tonne copper assets still independent; pitched as "the most buildable copper development project in North America."
12:35 Infrastructure and strip ratio (host)
- Highway, rail to port, power; strip ratio ~1.38:1 vs an average ~3:1. The host argues it stays profitable if copper fell 50%.
13:47 Sinaloa security
- Northern Sinaloa, the poorest and least cartel-active part of the state; activity centres on Culiacán ~5 hours south. "We take it extremely seriously… but we do manage it."
15:20 Plan Mexico: the only mining project of 40
- A US$320B, six-year national plan across sectors; Santo Tomas is the anchor investment for the deep-water Pacific port of Topolobampo.
- Brings state and federal visibility and expedited (not shortcut) permitting; included after local-community lobbying.
19:19 Path to a sale
- "Oroco is not going to mine it" — build to PFS to attract a buyer; people "already knocking on the door."
- 20,000 m drilling done by Christmas upgrades the inferred southern zone; resource statement ~end-February; PFS ~June 2027. Mineralization found beyond the 2024 PEA pit.
- US$18M at last report (February) after a US$23M Canaccord bought deal; drilling funded, more capital needed for the PFS. Cost inflation PEA→PFS perhaps 15–25%.
24:35 Why 12% of NPV: Mexico
- Market cap ~US$170M vs US$1.4B NPV — "Mexico is the short answer": legacy AMLO anti-mining rhetoric the market hasn't updated for, despite new open-pit permits this year and Plan Mexico status.
3. In plain English
OCO.V — Oroco Resource Corp Positive
Oroco is a small Canadian company that owns a very large copper deposit, Santo Tomas, in northern Mexico. "Near surface" and a low strip ratio mean relatively little waste rock has to be moved to reach the ore, which keeps mining costs down. Its 2024 study valued the project at about US$1.5 billion using a copper price well below today's, yet the whole company is valued at about US$170 million.
Cryer, who runs the company, says the gap is investors still fearing Mexico's old anti-mining politics. His plan is not to build the mine but to finish drilling and a more detailed engineering study in 2027 and then sell the project to a major. Remember that this is the CEO talking about his own stock; he will need to raise more money, and it is a Sinaloa jurisdiction.
Copper Positive
Miners normally pay smelters a fee to turn their concentrate into metal. Today some smelters are paying miners instead, because there isn't enough concentrate to go around — a sign the physical market is very tight. Cryer's case is that years of too little investment, temporary outages at big mines, and fast-growing demand from electric vehicles, power grids and AI data centers all hit at once, while a new mine takes 15–20 years to build. He expects higher prices to last.
For personal study — not investment advice. Source material © VRIC Media. Issuer interview: the guest is Oroco's CEO and the host says he is an Oroco shareholder.