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Chris D'Agnes — Don't chase yield, do this instead

Hamlin Capital's equity-income co-PM on why dividends discipline both management and the shareholder, how to spot a yield trap before the cut (balance sheet, free-cash-flow coverage, a dividend that outgrew a boom — UPS), why staples like Conagra, General Mills and Campbell's look dangerous, and where he is looking instead: AI-disruption "fallen angels" (Paychex, FactSet, Thomson Reuters) and energy (SLB), overweight.
2026-AUG-10 · Dividend Stockpile (host Jeremy) · guest Chris D'Agnes (co-PM, Equity Income, Hamlin Capital Management) · 31:42 · ▶ Watch · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: dividend growth works because the payout is a "governor on capital allocation" for management and forces the investor to hold through drawdowns. Hamlin runs a hybrid — double the S&P yield with dividend growth above inflation. The trap is yield chasing: a dividend raised on a boom it can't sustain (UPS +40–50% in one year during COVID) or a sector in structural trouble (packaged food — Conagra just cut; "are General Mills and Campbell next?"). A 5–7% yield on a company that normally pays 3–4% is the market saying the dividend won't hold. Where he's looking: fallen-angel dividend growers sold on AI-disruption fear, and energy — the cheapest sector (~13× earnings), overweight, with SLB the named idea. Broadcom (owned since 2019 as a 4% yielder) is their AI exposure. Disclosure: the host says he invests through Hamlin.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

TickerNameResearchViewWhat he saidAt
SLBSLB (Schlumberger)QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe named energy idea: ~2.5% yield, "going to be a very important company" as countries rebuild drawn-down reserves, stop relying on US shale, and the Middle East and Venezuela bring oil back on. Hamlin is overweight energy, still the cheapest sector (~13× earnings).19:35
AVGOBroadcomQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHeld "for years" — bought in 2019 as "a 4% yielding tech stock" before AI was in the story; his example of letting a winner run rather than selling on valuation.21:45
CVXChevronQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed alongside SLB: Venezuela, "trying to come back online," will need SLB and Chevron to bring its oil back — part of his overweight-energy case. (No holding stated.)19:53
PAYXPaychexQT · SA · STK · FANeutralAI-disruption "fallen angel" in business services — "hit really hard," a "pretty good dividend grower"; the group is "an area of real interest right now." No position stated.17:32
FDSFactSet Research SystemsQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSame AI-disruption fallen-angel group — "hit really hard," a good dividend grower, "an area of real interest right now." No position stated.17:32
TRIThomson ReutersQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSame AI-disruption fallen-angel group — "hit really hard," a good dividend grower, "an area of real interest right now." No position stated.17:32
STXSeagate TechnologyQT · SA · STK · FANeutralOne of the few dividend payers inside the AI/data-center trade that some dividend ETFs "were able to get their hands on… for a little bit." Context only.21:45
QCOMQualcommQT · SA · STK · FANeutralPaired with Seagate as a dividend payer with AI exposure that dividend ETFs briefly held. Context only.21:45
NVDANvidiaQT · SA · STK · FANeutral"Really tap[ping] the capital markets" as AI build-out spending eats free cash flow — the swings around AI concerns favour uncorrelated dividend strategies. Context, no stock view.22:37
METAMeta PlatformsQT · SA · STK · FANeutral"Raising a lot more debt" — the free cash flow that once made a dividend thinkable is "all getting used in capex." Context, no stock view.22:37
UPSUnited Parcel ServiceQT · SA · STK · FANegativeThe yield-trap case study: treated the COVID shipping boom as the new normal and raised the dividend 40–50% in one year; earnings normalized, the union deal was harder than expected, and the yield is high "because nobody believes it's sustainable" — now token increases to keep aristocrat status.12:58
CAGConagra BrandsQT · SA · STK · FANegative"Just cut its dividend" — a big yield that "was not sustainable"; evidence that staples/CPG is "a very tough area" where dividend cutting has started.25:10
WHRWhirlpoolQT · SA · STK · FANegativeNamed with Conagra as a recent dividend cut — "big yields that were not sustainable," which the market priced in as the yield climbed to 5–7%.14:33
GISGeneral MillsQT · SA · STK · FANegativeStaples he is avoiding: after Conagra's cut, "is General Mills and Campbell, are they next?" — an aristocrat-type yield that looks attractive but may not hold.25:32
CPBThe Campbell's CompanyQT · SA · STK · FANegativePaired with General Mills as a possible next packaged-food dividend cut — "that would be incredible," but staples/CPG is the area he is avoiding.25:32

Not tabled (host remarks, not D'Agnes's views): Coca-Cola at an all-time high, Caterpillar, Exxon and Chevron's good year (10:15); S&P Global, Moody's, FactSet and Accenture as beaten-down business services the host likes (20:35); Google's first negative-free-cash-flow quarter (23:43). The Mag 7 is referenced as a group only.

2. Talking points

0:47 Hamlin Capital Management

2:19 Why dividend growth: two disciplines

5:10 Paid on the darkest days

7:25 2026: dividend strategies beating the S&P

10:51 What he looks for: balance sheet first

12:35 Don't let the dividend outgrow the business — UPS

14:33 The market spots unsustainable yields

16:25 Fallen angels

17:50 Energy: cheapest sector, overweight

21:24 Low correlation to the AI trade

22:37 AI capex eats hyperscaler free cash flow

24:23 Mistake #1: yield chasing

25:32 Mistake #2: selling too soon

27:33 Option-income ETFs: not for them

30:25 How to access Hamlin

3. In plain English

SLB — SLB (Schlumberger) Positive

SLB is the world's largest oilfield-services company: it doesn't own oil fields, it sells the drilling technology, equipment and engineering that oil producers and national oil companies use to find and pump oil and gas. When countries spend more on finding oil, SLB gets paid.

D'Agnes thinks the market is wrongly assuming oil falls back to $50–60 once the war ends. Emergency reserves and inventories have been drawn down, and countries want their own supplies rather than relying on US shale, so spending on oil and gas should stay high. SLB yields about 2.5% and energy is the cheapest sector, at about 13 times earnings; Hamlin is overweight energy.

CVX — Chevron Positive

Chevron is one of the big US oil companies and the one with a long history in Venezuela. D'Agnes's point is that Venezuela wants to bring its oil back on and will need Chevron (and SLB) to do it — part of his wider case that energy is cheap and still important. He didn't say whether Hamlin owns it.

AVGO — Broadcom Positive

Broadcom makes networking and custom chips plus infrastructure software. Hamlin bought it in 2019 as a boring 4%-yielding tech company, before anyone talked about AI, and has held it ever since as it became an AI winner. He uses it to show two things: dividend funds have little AI exposure, and you shouldn't sell a great business just because it now looks expensive.

PAYX — Paychex Neutral

Paychex runs payroll and HR for small businesses. Investors have sold it hard on fear that AI will make its services cheaper to replicate. D'Agnes calls this kind of stock a "fallen angel": a company with a good record and a history of raising its dividend, sold off more than its earnings justify. He called the group "an area of real interest," not a position.

FDS — FactSet Neutral

FactSet sells financial data and analytics terminals to investment firms. Like Paychex, it has been sold on the fear that AI tools will replace paid data subscriptions. D'Agnes sees it as a good dividend grower caught in that fear, and the group interests him.

TRI — Thomson Reuters Neutral

Thomson Reuters sells legal, tax and news information services (Westlaw, Checkpoint, Reuters). It is in the same "AI will disrupt this" basket, which is why it fell. D'Agnes lists it among the hard-hit dividend growers he finds interesting.

UPS — United Parcel Service Negative

UPS is his textbook yield trap. During COVID, package volumes boomed and management treated that as normal, raising the dividend 40–50% in a single year. Then volumes and earnings came back down and a tough union contract raised costs, leaving little room. The dividend now barely grows, just enough to keep its "Dividend Aristocrat" record (a company that has raised its dividend every year for decades).

The high yield isn't a bargain signal: it's high because the price fell, and the price fell because investors doubt the payout can last. His lesson is to make sure a dividend can still be paid in 10 years at a realistic earnings growth rate.

CAG — Conagra Brands Negative

Conagra makes packaged foods (Birds Eye, Healthy Choice and similar supermarket brands). It just cut its dividend. D'Agnes uses it as proof that packaged food and consumer products are a "very tough area" where companies can no longer grow enough to fund their payouts, so their high yields are warnings, not opportunities.

WHR — Whirlpool Negative

Whirlpool, the appliance maker, is another recent dividend cut. His point: when a company's yield climbs to 5–7% the market is usually telling you it expects a cut, and it is often right.

GIS — General Mills Negative

General Mills (Cheerios, Pillsbury, Blue Buffalo) has raised its dividend for a very long time and now offers a high yield. After Conagra's cut, D'Agnes openly asks whether General Mills could be next. He isn't predicting it, but it is the kind of "great American company" yield he is avoiding.

CPB — The Campbell's Company Negative

Campbell's (soups, Goldfish, snacks) sits in the same packaged-food group. D'Agnes names it with General Mills as a possible next dividend cut. His broader stance is to stay away from consumer staples for now.

For personal study — not investment advice. Source material © Dividend Stockpile. The guest manages a dividend strategy that the host says he invests in.