Title: Trading the Tech Surge: Your Next Move 8/7/26
Show: CNBC Halftime Report (podcast of the live noon ET show)
Host: Scott Wapner + Investment Committee (members named in the transcript intro)
Date: 2026-08-07 (Friday)
URL: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4ehlsBuY1TGSt1i4AQHRzk
Length: ~43:32
Note: Spotify auto-generated transcript (accuracy may vary); (mm:ss) cues from Spotify transcript sections.

(0:00) Alright guys, thanks so much.
(0:01) Welcome to the halftime report.
(0:02) I'm Scott Wapner front and center.
(0:04) This hour, the tech surge, NASDAQ pacing for its best week since mid-april, big gains from the mega
(0:09) Cavs, semies and some software blowouts to talk about.
(0:11) Today we'll trade all of it with the investment committee.
(0:14) Joining me for the hour, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Kevin Simpson and Brent Talkington take
(0:19) you to the markets, show you exactly what we're doing. 12 noon in the East, there's the NASDAQ 1
(0:24) 1/4%.
(0:24) Leading the way today on this nice tech rebound.
(0:27) Stocks up, jobs miss, it doesn't matter.
(0:30) Yields down, market feeling OK with I think where things currently are.
(0:35) Another firm, Steph, has turned bullish even more so on stocks.
(0:39) CFRA goes to 8050.
(0:41) They were at 7400.
(0:43) Target got blown by Obviously they see 8650 next year.
(0:47) Tom Lee says could get 8000 in August.
(0:50) Stephanie Link's been, I think pretty bullish too.
(0:52) So what do you think?
(0:54) I think we're kind of close to Goldilocks.
(0:57) I know kind of close.
(0:59) We're not there exactly.
(1:00) The non farm payroll report wasn't great.
(1:03) Nor was last month's right, I mean.
(1:04) Nor the last three.
(1:05) So.
(1:06) Nor were the last three.
(1:08) The three month average is now at 20,000 jobs per month versus 77,000 before.
(1:15) So mainly though it is the public side, not the private side.
(1:18) That's number one.
(1:19) The the Goldilocks piece of this is though that the inflation report, the average hourly earnings is
(1:25) actually slowing 3.2% this go round versus 3.4 last.
(1:29) But when you add that with yesterday's unit labor costs that were much lower than expected, in
(1:35) addition to higher productivity, which was higher than expected, that's good overall for inflation,
(1:41) good overall for the Fed, probably good for wash.
(1:44) And why we didn't raise.
(1:45) And I don't think they're going to raise between now and the end of the year because I think
(1:48) productivity is the story.
(1:50) And if we get a resolution on the war, that's icing on the cake.
(1:53) But the productivity is the important part.
(1:55) And Scott, the productivity grew last quarter 1.7%, but we're not even close to the peaks of
(2:02) productivity that we saw in the 50s and the 60s, which was closer to 4 to 5%.
(2:07) Spin that to the market then.
(2:09) Productivity helps on the 80.
(2:10) 80,000 I mean 80,008 thousand on the S&P higher than that.
(2:15) Well, let me.
(2:16) Let me finish.
(2:17) I want to get away from the.
(2:19) I want to get away from the macro jobs stuff.
(2:21) I want to get to the stock.
(2:22) But I'm talking about the inflation because we've all been obsessed about inflation and jobs and
(2:25) everything else.
(2:26) So then you Fast forward to the growth in the economy that we saw this week, ISM services,
(2:30) manufacturing, four year highs, Chicago Fed, etcetera.
(2:34) So you have growth and maybe inflation getting an improvement and that is leading to 48% earnings
(2:42) growth, 15% revenue growth, 250 basis points of gross margin expansion year over year for the S&P
(2:48) 500.
(2:49) And the equal weight is actually outperforming the market weight.
(2:52) We've been talking about that all year long.
(2:53) So it is broadening out and that's why it's kind of like Goldilocks.
(2:57) OK, Jenny Harrington.
(3:00) Yeah.
(3:00) What do you think?
(3:02) What do you think?
(3:03) Steph said that we're near Goldilocks, but we're not quite there yet.
(3:06) And my struggle continues to be fleshing out the near term and the longer term because to your
(3:12) point, productivity is extraordinary.
(3:14) It's extraordinary for corporate earnings and we aren't even seeing the best of it yet probably.
(3:18) What if productivity becomes so great and maybe these jobs numbers that we just saw are just the
(3:23) beginning of something?
(3:24) And what if there is ultimately job loss?
(3:27) And what if there is?
(3:29) What if there is pressure on the consumer?
(3:31) And what if that ultimately pressures consumer spending, which is a huge percent of GDP?
(3:35) Jenny, you've been talking about, honestly a lot of what ifs for a very long time.
(3:39) Job of an investor, That's the job of Yeah, but but.
(3:41) Is that guiding?
(3:42) Is that guiding the way you're investing right now?
(3:44) Because a lot of the people who are the what ifs.
(3:46) Yeah, but that's the challenge.
(3:47) Are watching the market go up and still asking what if?
(3:50) So so here.
(3:51) Here's where I struggle, which is here and now today, I'm all in.
(3:55) I'm positive earnings are great.
(3:57) But I think as a functional investor, you have to also like, so you're looking immediately ahead of
(4:01) you and then you're looking down the road.
(4:03) And when I look down the road, I have a lot of concern.
(4:05) But immediately here and now today fully invested, I love the breadth that we're seeing.
(4:10) You see the the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index up 16%, the Russell up 21% on the year, S&P is up
(4:16) 14% after today.
(4:17) So you see this wonderful, you know, maybe I don't know, maybe I'm more like, maybe it is Goldilocks
(4:22) in this moment.
(4:23) Putting yourself into it.
(4:25) But well, but, but then you know me because I take the long term one well.
(4:29) It's just, it's just a struggle between the short term and the long term.
(4:31) And we all know while the music's playing.
(4:33) We keep dancing, worry, we worry.
(4:36) I worry.
(4:36) We have to worry because you're being complacent.
(4:39) So, but the market always climbs A wallaberry and the fundamentals are strong.
(4:42) I mean earnings growth we're thinking 25%.
(4:45) This quarter it's 48%.
(4:47) All I'm saying is you know me like I can't celebrate the moment without worrying about the future I
(4:52) got.
(4:53) It live a little let's.
(4:55) Go a little.
(4:58) I'm from a family of of ice cream ice cream producers, and good one at that.
(5:02) Enjoy the sundae for a change.
(5:03) Everyone else gets a little because I worry for them.
(5:06) There you go.
(5:06) I always tell my clients I'm like, see this Gray hair.
(5:08) Like I got that for you, you.
(5:10) Should be in the fixed, you know, just enjoy a fixed income portfolio.
(5:12) I practically am stuff.
(5:14) You need the the rainy day rum Raisin flavor at at Van Lewin, right?
(5:19) We need to get that note to note to your bro.
(5:22) Let's.
(5:22) Go.
(5:23) Rainy day, Rainy day Rum Raisin, The Jenny's favorite flavor.
(5:27) What about you, Kev?
(5:28) All right.
(5:28) Well, we can't skip over the jobs report, Scott, not because it wasn't a disappointing print, but I
(5:34) think when we look at the tech trade rallying today, it's because of the revisions that we saw.
(5:39) You mentioned the three month average, but if I stretch it back and look over the 12 month, we're
(5:43) talking about 36,000 creations.
(5:46) And that's something where the Fed is not in any position where they can hike rates.
(5:49) So I agree with everyone here, but I think there may be some enthusiasm or some expectation that
(5:55) maybe they're in a position where they're going to need to cut rates.
(5:58) And I don't think that's it either.
(5:59) So I like the Goldilocks analogy.
(6:00) Yeah, Do nothing on rates seems prudent for the for the time being, right?
(6:05) Yeah, and it's almost a rate cut by proxy.
(6:06) Does well, I mean, but but the market frankly has been doing a rate tightening by proxy, hasn't it?
(6:12) Yeah, well, this changes the landscape.
(6:14) I mean, there's no chance they can do it, but the inflationary problem is the one thing that keeps
(6:18) me up at night.
(6:19) But when you have earnings like this, that's what's so exciting about this market pushing up against
(6:23) all time highs because it's not on some promise into the future.
(6:27) It's on actual earnings growth and a decent economy.
(6:30) So I'm all about to run raising.
(6:32) You feel like you feel like the calls now that seem to be growing of 8000.
(6:38) Like Tom Lee says, we could get there in August and then beyond that are are realistic because of
(6:44) the earnings growth that Steph's talking about.
(6:46) I mean, at the end of the day, if you want to, you know, if you ask yourself, well, why hasn't the
(6:51) market reacted more strongly to, you know, the uncertainty and the, the, this, that and the other
(6:59) about the, the war and, and where oil prices are are going and, and, and any other bit of concern.
(7:05) It's because the earning story is durable, at least so far, and it's way better than people thought
(7:10) it was going to be.
(7:11) And the expectations for it in the quarters to come look pretty darn good too.
(7:16) How can you be negative the market in that environment, Albeit I totally get and I'm not suggesting
(7:21) don't consider the risks, don't plan for the rainy day.
(7:24) There's prudent risk management obviously.
(7:26) However, if you look at the earnings story, until the earnings story changes, why should Steph
(7:31) bullishness and why should Tom Lees and why should Ed Yardeni who's 8250 and says that could be
(7:36) conservative, why should any of that change?
(7:38) Well, it it shouldn't change as long as the earnings hold up.
(7:41) So to your point, I think 8 thousands of foregone conclusion, whether we see that in August, maybe
(7:45) that's a little bit of a stretch.
(7:47) But the reason we're not freaking out over what's happening in the Middle East, it goes back to the
(7:50) idea that we're not seeing a worst case scenario there.
(7:53) So the stock market can pay more attention to things that matter very germanely to stock prices,
(7:59) which is earnings and multiples.
(8:01) And multiples aren't too high.
(8:02) Earnings are good.
(8:03) But I would say the most important thing spot on straight up is the guides.
(8:08) Nobody's guiding down.
(8:09) They're all guiding up.
(8:10) And to me that's more important than anything received.
(8:11) I mean you.
(8:12) Got some of the software space today beaten raises and why a lot of those stocks are doing well.
(8:17) Brynn, it's fair to ask if there's too much optimism without without without question.
(8:22) I mean, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett today looks at his bull and bear sentiment indicator
(8:29) rising to the highest level since 2021.
(8:32) You know, am I supposed?
(8:35) What am I make of that?
(8:38) Not much I would I not much.
(8:40) I think it's a data point.
(8:42) I think if that was two weeks ago and then all of a sudden here, let me let me reframe this.
(8:47) The economy is good.
(8:48) I think Steph and Jenny obviously did a great job and Kevin walking through all the economic
(8:53) machinations that are happening.
(8:54) But let's talk stocks for a second.
(8:56) I think last week we had just like 2 Seminole moments, first of all, with Microsoft and that when
(9:04) Microsoft has rallied, what, 100 and almost 30 points in a week.
(9:08) And when they came out and they said models need to be swappable Satya and that yes, they are
(9:14) spending way much more on CapEx than they're making.
(9:18) But as we are seeing this cloud acceleration really across the three big hyper scalers you have
(9:24) seen, I think you know, we own RSP, but let's talk about technology that we are seeing software
(9:31) continuing to make higher lows like looking at the IGV and I think we're seeing this broadening that
(9:37) hey, all these application companies and I think Microsoft is like at the epicenter, the ultimate
(9:43) SAS company ultimately are going to be where you make money as these commodities models commoditized
(9:49) on top of last week.
(9:51) I think the situational awareness blow up.
(9:55) You know, he clearly wasn't aware of the risk of leverage and then with the cost be margin calls
(10:02) just and then all those people following situational awareness, by the way, following those trades.
(10:08) Just that washout on top of Microsoft really showing us, hey, this CapEx is, is, is is here to stay,
(10:15) but software's not going away.
(10:17) I think it's been a really great reset in the market and you see that just with such a more broad
(10:21) selection.
(10:22) And then NVIDIA finally, I know it's a new position for stuff, but finally getting some love in the
(10:27) market.
(10:28) I think when Elon said they're going all when they're going, when Elon says their massive CapEx at
(10:34) SpaceX is going all in on NVIDIA, if you don't own NVIDIA after that, then you're like missing the
(10:40) boat.
(10:40) So it's nice to see the Microsoft's, the Nvidia's other software type companies starting to get some
(10:45) love.
(10:46) And I think the markets like peak open AI valuations and maybe software, NVIDIA are going to start
(10:51) ramping up and getting more attention where I think as we evolve into this AI space, I still think
(10:57) the LLMS ultimately get commoditized and smart software companies are where the money's made.
(11:03) Yeah, been a week to say the least for NVIDIA.
(11:06) We just showed it.
(11:07) Obviously this this multi day run better than 11% now on the week.
(11:12) Good enough that you bought more.
(11:13) Yeah, like the teaser this morning?
(11:15) Oh yeah, yeah.
(11:17) So Kevins it Kevins the one.
(11:19) He's the one who bought more NVIDIA.
(11:21) I did tease it on on on the 9 with.
(11:23) Sure, I thought it was with.
(11:24) CQ So tell me why it was you?
(11:28) Everybody knew.
(11:29) They looked at who was on the data like a process of elimination that like our first one, first one
(11:33) went to Sharpie.
(11:34) No.
(11:35) All right.
(11:35) Why?
(11:35) Well, they are paying a dividend now, so I think it's worth a consideration.
(11:38) But this is the OG and it is the one stock that has continued to just make more and more and more
(11:45) money every single day, but not have the love from a share price perspective.
(11:48) So I made the analogy.
(11:50) I was like in the old days from technology, everyone needed electricity, you needed the Internet.
(11:55) And now it's a question where how much AI does every company need?
(11:59) How much are they spending?
(12:00) And they just go up and down the stack where they are the primary player in this space.
(12:05) This is not a trade.
(12:07) This is an investment.
(12:08) I could go through all of the the financials as to why we love the stock, but we bought more at
(12:13) 2:18.
(12:14) We're going to own it for a long time.
(12:16) I think the numbers are going to be great, but I wanted to get into it before earnings, Scott, real
(12:19) quickly because they tend to report so late that you get a lot of the action from all of the other
(12:24) players beforehand.
(12:25) We're still two weeks away I think, right, aren't we?
(12:27) The week of it's like the 26th something like that.
(12:31) So your point's well taken.
(12:32) Just try.
(12:32) I mean that's they are the last of the the, the biggest stocks in the market to report.
(12:39) And I think the report's going to be awesome, but I think the move's going to happen beforehand.
(12:43) We think about the move.
(12:44) Well, I like it because obviously I just bought it for the first time ever, but I will say I have
(12:49) owned Broadcom, so I've been very pleased with that.
(12:52) I bought it really because of valuation.
(12:54) You know, it's trading at a valuation that they haven't seen since 20/19 at 18 times.
(12:59) It's actually cheaper than Colgate or Hershey or any of the staples companies that are getting like
(13:05) 3% organic growth.
(13:07) This company just posted 85% total revenue growth year over year.
(13:09) And I think the visibility is outstanding given the backlog that they have.
(13:13) You hope, right?
(13:14) You hope, you hope that their earnings, I think you hope their earnings optimism holds up, right?
(13:18) I don't think it's hope.
(13:19) I think you look at their backlog and I think you look at their customer base and you listen to Elon
(13:23) Musk and what he's going to do.
(13:25) They haven't even started.
(13:26) And then at the same time you've got gross margins that are in the mid 70s, which are, which is
(13:31) really phenomenal.
(13:32) They're free cash flow is going to double next year.
(13:35) And that's why they're financing all these other companies and they're getting involved and they're
(13:38) benefiting from investing in some of these other companies.
(13:41) So I think they're really in the sweet spot, and evaluation to me, given the visibility was just too
(13:46) compelling to to ignore.
(13:47) Yeah, you overlay that to the bounce back in momentum and they, they, they track each other pretty
(13:53) well.
(13:53) Momentum's having its best week since mid June.
(13:57) We're up 8% from the July 29th low.
(14:00) So what was a historic, a run up and a pretty historic and swift unwind has been a really nice
(14:08) bounce that's helped the market too.
(14:10) And don't don't discount that fact.
(14:12) Semis, both the socks and the SMH.
(14:14) Best week for both since mid June as well.
(14:17) So that's a nice tracker.
(14:19) Your broad comes up 9% this week alone.
(14:22) Marvell, which you have too, is up 14%.
(14:25) Gains are pretty nice across the board.
(14:27) Micron's a 5% winner week to date as well.
(14:30) Yeah.
(14:30) I mean, I didn't know how much momentum I actually had in My Portfolio because I'm kind of a GARP
(14:35) investor, but the fundamentals are phenomenal.
(14:38) Well, no, I still.
(14:38) Am I know, but still.
(14:39) I mean, Broadcom is actually, I know, but you know what, Broadcom and NVIDIA both have
(14:43) underperformed the sector's the sector by 53% year to date.
(14:48) That was the other reason why it was so interesting to me.
(14:49) They were such laggards and I thought they could play catch up.
(14:52) Both have earnings power of $20 a share over time.
(14:55) They're a, Broadcom's AI semiconductor pipeline is $100 billion.
(15:00) So I mean, there's a lot of visibility.
(15:01) They're doing a lot of great things.
(15:03) Micron is a fairly new position.
(15:04) It's a volatile 1 for sure.
(15:06) So it's a, it's a smaller position.
(15:08) But I just think the visibility is phenomenal that they have $100 billion in bookings between now
(15:12) and the end of the year take or pay contracts.
(15:14) So that's a lot of visibility and, and, and I think they're really in the sweet spot in terms of
(15:19) this whole AI memory shortage.
(15:22) I mean, we're short everything in this world and they're right there.
(15:24) Wow, Microchip Technology, they're a big.
(15:27) Let's take a look at the stock on guidance on the guide.
(15:30) Jenny owns the Preferred.
(15:31) That's a nice move right there in the stock.
(15:34) You know, and it kind of goes back to my super old five years ago thesis, which we see everywhere,
(15:39) which is we're going to need every kind of chip, you know, forever.
(15:43) And so these are not the NVIDIA chips.
(15:44) These are the, the little like nothing chips that are in things like this, right?
(15:50) But every part of their business executed.
(15:52) Their industrial business was up 24%.
(15:54) Their data center was up 97%, aerospace and defense up 45% just across the board.
(15:59) And you know, it's the underlying micro, You know, I own the preferred, but Microchip itself is
(16:04) trading at 20 times earnings.
(16:05) The preferred still has a 5.3% yield.
(16:08) There's still growth ahead in that and they're and they're riding that wave.
(16:11) So I think the reality is too, you don't need to own everything.
(16:15) You can own certain, certain companies, you know, you don't have to own NVIDIA, you don't have to
(16:19) own Microsoft.
(16:19) You can find opportunities other places.
(16:21) I ended up buying this last year in April when the tariff stuff went down and paid $41.00 a share
(16:28) for the preferred.
(16:29) It's at 71 now and it was a nothing company that everybody thought was just sleepy.
(16:33) And, you know, there's opportunity everywhere, and I think this is a good reminder.
(16:36) Of that you mentioned Microsoft, I did.
(16:38) I did want to get to that because it's had a week, you know, in its own right, up 8%.
(16:42) The stock had done virtually nothing.
(16:45) It was such a disappointer.
(16:47) Then the earnings report happened.
(16:49) The stock now has gotten a nice bumper, little stair step up a little bit every day.
(16:54) Up 8 1/2 percent or so this week.
(16:57) Have you sold covered calls on it right?
(16:59) Tell me.
(17:00) Yeah.
(17:00) I mean, this is a round trip.
(17:01) A few months ago, January, the stock was 550, then it's seemingly a few weeks later was 350.
(17:08) At the time of that repricing, we had a 590 call on it.
(17:12) So this stock gets down to 350.
(17:14) We were adding in the three 70s, three 80s, and then all of a sudden this report blew it out of the
(17:19) water.
(17:19) I mean, this exceeded any expectation that I could have dreamed of.
(17:22) So we wrote a 5:30 call.
(17:24) It expires in a couple weeks.
(17:26) We're in it.
(17:26) It's 8% out of the money, but we're bringing in 10% annualized premium.
(17:30) So when you have a stock that just made this kind of move, we're harvesting some of that volatility.
(17:34) No loss in conviction in the name whatsoever, but just trying to add a little alpha, a little
(17:39) premium on the edges.
(17:40) We're in.
(17:40) It almost feels like the Street did lose conviction in the name just a little, and maybe it got its
(17:47) mojo back a bit with the earnings report.
(17:50) How do you feel about it since you own it?
(17:53) Yeah.
(17:53) I mean, while I was on with you the day before earnings and I said I'm exhausted with the stock
(17:58) performance and actually with the company.
(18:01) And the only reason I hadn't sold it is Amy Hood and Satya, which continue just to be a master class
(18:08) and ACEOCFO of a multi trillion dollar company.
(18:12) And I think that they did a great job of reading the room of not doing what Google's doing, I'll
(18:18) say, of saying they're going to be free cash flow, that they're not going to the debt market.
(18:24) I believe Microsoft and J&J are the only AAA companies out there.
(18:29) And so and then you have cloud revenue which had been going between 38 to 4038 to 40 come in at 43
(18:37) and Amy guided upward.
(18:39) And so that to me is what I was saying earlier is that they're spending a lot on what on CapEx for
(18:45) why we're we're still got to figure that out.
(18:47) But you are seeing a, a revenue monetization in their cloud business.
(18:52) And then Amazon and Google confirm the same thing.
(18:54) So I do think it's a re rating.
(18:56) I think people are looking at this in, in a new light.
(18:59) I will say like with the departures at Google, you know, Microsoft and Google do of a bureaucracy
(19:04) issue.
(19:05) And I think that's why you have to continue to watch the departures leaving to go do their own thing
(19:09) because that bureaucracy ultimately I think hinders has hindered Microsoft.
(19:13) It's definitely hindered Google.
(19:16) And so I do think you can't ignore these departures, which we all kind of ignore, but I don't think
(19:22) we should.
(19:23) Give me some on Palantir too.
(19:24) You want to sum up the kind of week that it's been for this name, Speaking of a stock being back,
(19:30) it's up again.
(19:31) It's a new high.
(19:33) Excuse me, It's not.
(19:34) I'm looking at something else.
(19:35) It's up 37 1/2% though this week alone.
(19:41) Yep, kind of like Microsoft.
(19:43) It was about 20 points below the 200 day, looking terrible.
(19:48) I feel pretty confident you had a massive amount of short covering on those really solid earnings.
(19:53) I think Alec Carp, Alex Carp, people think he's screaming.
(19:57) He's not.
(19:57) He's just telling people what's happening.
(19:59) I think he's right.
(20:00) And you've had follow through to me, very important.
(20:02) There was a lot of short covering, great earnings, but you've had follow through just like Microsoft
(20:07) all week.
(20:07) So I go back to this basket of software companies.
(20:11) Palantir is the original GOAT of AI software companies.
(20:15) They're model neutral.
(20:16) Once again, they don't care, but it's like.
(20:18) Safety, security, government, corporate.
(20:20) So I just think they're coming together.
(20:21) It's still an expensive stock, but I think it's been a wonderful rerating and a rerating of the
(20:25) technicals, which could bring people like Joe T and later on down the line if the stock continues to
(20:31) stay well above that 200 day and continue to move higher.
(20:34) I was staring at Snowflake.
(20:35) I wanted to do that next real quick.
(20:37) That's the new 52 week high today.
(20:38) It's up 11% on this week in this nice move back that we've had for software.
(20:44) Yeah.
(20:44) I mean, it's up 47%.
(20:46) It's up like 20% in the last like 3 weeks.
(20:48) Last time we talked about it.
(20:50) Product revenue growth though accelerated in last quarter.
(20:52) And I think that they're positioned, given all the new products that they have, it's actually going
(20:56) to do another 30 to 34% in product revenue growth.
(20:59) That and RPO's bookings are also growing double digits and margins are still, I think they still
(21:03) have upside as they cut costs on some areas and they have pricing power in others.
(21:09) If software is acting better, then maybe private equity is acting better.
(21:13) That appears to be the case.
(21:15) Blue Owl for example, up 14% this week, Their technology.
(21:20) BDC up 18%.
(21:23) Some of the other names have had pretty decent moves this week as well.
(21:27) Aries, Blackstone, KKR is up a couple of percentage points, but I think there's a got to be at least
(21:33) a little bit of correlation between stabilization and software and stabilization in in some of these
(21:38) private equity stocks.
(21:39) By the way, Speaking of private equity, if you look at the financials, they're going for their tenth
(21:43) straight week of gains.
(21:44) That's the longest streak since at least 89.
(21:47) OK.
(21:47) So that that area of the market has been back.
(21:51) Charles Schwab, Jenny, I'll come to you on that new record high this week as well.
(21:55) Yeah.
(21:55) And the thing about Schwab that I think is interesting is it's trading at 14 1/2 times earnings.
(22:00) The earnings growth is tremendous and it's up a lot, but it's not up as much as many of the
(22:04) financial services companies and the and the, you know, big banks, which surprises me.
(22:08) So I think you've got an opportunity to get in here at A at a decent valuation.
(22:12) Also with the way the market is trading, with equity prices the way they are with volume with with,
(22:18) yeah, with volumes of volatility, you think that the shares would have performed better.
(22:22) So, you know, get in while you can.
(22:24) Let's finish the the a block here with certainly a stock that has garnered a lot of attention this
(22:30) week for a couple of different reasons, not only the earnings, but the lock up expirations beginning
(22:35) yesterday.
(22:35) It's SpaceX obviously best week since going public.
(22:39) As I said, we just did have the lock up expiration and Stephanie Link bought more.
(22:45) Yeah, well, my first buy point was a lot higher.
(22:48) The stock's down 40%.
(22:49) And you knew that was going to happen though, right?
(22:51) I did, but I wanted to have a toe in the water, Scott.
(22:54) I wanted to have a piece of this and I and it is a very long term position, but the decline to me is
(22:59) just too tempting, especially after the earnings report, which I thought were really was excellent
(23:04) in terms of earnings and revenues and all segments beat on the sales line and and even EBITDA was up
(23:08) so much.
(23:09) And and I know Kevin, you were talking about it earlier, I mean total revenue of 92%, OK, I
(23:13) understand why the stock fell on the news because of them spending.
(23:17) But they said the payback of that spend is going to be in the AI segment, it's going to be within a
(23:22) year.
(23:23) So to me, I don't, I wasn't happy about the spend short term, but long term this is what they have
(23:28) to do.
(23:28) And in the meantime, the profitability segment, the connectivity big piece just blew it away and
(23:33) they're doubling subscribers.
(23:35) Margins were really good.
(23:36) They'd be on operating margin.
(23:37) So to me all the the story is intact.
(23:39) I just wanted to be a little bit bigger on the decline.
(23:41) Let me ask you this then.
(23:42) Yeah, if you, if you had a little bit of question internally about the degree of spend, the degree
(23:49) of spend is not going to go anywhere but high, right, Because they are for all intents purposes a
(23:54) hyperscaler and they are going to show you very much that they're going to do that and they're going
(23:59) to continue to spend.
(23:59) Now they got upgraded today at Argus who was at hold now they're at buy 160 is the price target.
(24:06) So you're you're fine with what the trajectory of what they're going to do is going to be?
(24:11) Yeah, I mean you.
(24:12) Have to be, I am.
(24:13) I'm OK with that for the long term because I think it's going to yield returns eventually.
(24:17) Like we just saw with the hyperscalers, it may take some time to see those returns to see those
(24:21) earnings, but the revenues are going to be there.
(24:24) I mean they're barely even spending now and they're producing the growth that they are, Scott.
(24:28) And they had 14 billion in cloud service agreements in this quarter alone.
(24:32) They're going to do 60 billion probably per year in these kind of agreements, I think over time.
(24:36) So I think that's your real, your real upside.
(24:38) OK, we will.
(24:40) We'll take a break and then we will come back with our calls of the day.
(24:43) I've got a move I'm looking at too, another one from Kevin Simpson over there in the healthcare
(24:49) space.
(24:50) Document that coming up.
(25:08) Welcome back.
(25:09) Let's take a look at Boeing today.
(25:10) The FAA ordering inspections of more than 400, seven, 37 Max jets for possible cracks, according to
(25:16) Wall Street Journal.
(25:18) Stocks not doing too much on this news.
(25:20) I mean it's a small set back, it's 471 planes out of 6500 planes that they have in the 737 series.
(25:28) So not great news, but I think they will eventually get it fixed.
(25:31) In the meantime, the quarter that they reported last quarter, the turn around is quite evident.
(25:37) They're increasing their production rates, they're increasing their free cash flow levels.
(25:41) Their margins are actually expanding again.
(25:44) So to me an organic growth of 8% to me I think that is this is the buy.
(25:48) I think you don't want to touch Honeywell Aerospace that.
(25:52) Oh, that's the one that had the big move yesterday.
(25:54) Yeah, you don't go.
(25:54) You don't spin out two months ago, reiterate guide, and then report earnings with a $0.25 miss and
(26:00) lower.
(26:00) Guide Phil Phil LeBeau came on closing bell yesterday and was like flabbergasted it at how that
(26:08) could happen.
(26:09) Right.
(26:10) How does that?
(26:10) Happen they weren't coached well and I think this management team needs to mature and learn you, you
(26:16) know, under promise, over deliver.
(26:17) But I mean, $0.25, you didn't know this 2 two months ago.
(26:20) So to me, it's, it's just frustrating.
(26:23) I love spins, you know that that's why I was taking a look at it.
(26:26) But I just don't like the credibility that was just lost overnight.
(26:28) OK.
(26:29) Netflix is called a buy today at Rothschild in Redburn. 93 bucks shares have derated from 47 times
(26:38) forward to 19 today.
(26:41) That was over the course of a year.
(26:43) So let's look at the one year then, please.
(26:47) Yeah.
(26:47) I, I, I don't think you need that kind of multiple expansion for the stock to recover.
(26:51) We actually added to it last week in our growth portfolio sub 20X forward multiple.
(26:56) I think the stock is cheap.
(26:57) We love the story.
(26:58) It's now about content.
(26:59) I mean, their content has lagged and they need to improve, they need to pick it up and I think they
(27:03) will.
(27:03) I totally agree with the call and I think we'll see the stock back there in the not too distant
(27:07) future.
(27:07) OK, so the Virginia governor says that she's going to intervene in the merger of Next Era and
(27:14) Dominion, right?
(27:16) You have both of these, don't you?
(27:18) I have both.
(27:18) So first of all, when Next Era announced that they were going to buy Dominion, there was no doubt
(27:24) that we want to go down without a regulatory fight.
(27:26) And what happened was they made that announcement.
(27:28) Dominion shares basically went up 10%.
(27:30) Next, Tara shares went down 10% on average.
(27:33) I ended up buying the next Terror convertible Preferred V.
(27:37) So it's got a 7.9% yield.
(27:38) And the calculus was the following.
(27:40) Look, if the merger does go through, that's great because what happened was it first of all
(27:45) highlighted Dominion that it was undervalued, that, you know, that's why we got that pop and we
(27:48) could get a little more.
(27:49) And if the merger does go through, then great, you've got better earnings.
(27:53) Next tier right now has like 8-9 percent earnings growth ahead, trades at about 18 times, so really
(27:58) fair valuation.
(27:59) And if the merger goes through, they've got synergies and those earning that earnings growth gets
(28:02) even richer.
(28:03) If it doesn't go through, fine.
(28:05) They lost 10% when it was announced.
(28:07) If it doesn't go through, fine, then I get a 10% pop, you know if the shares.
(28:10) Recovered is the move is the fact that the stocks are both green today, the market saying we think
(28:16) this is just fine.
(28:17) This is, you know, some political blustering noise.
(28:19) Right.
(28:20) There was just no way.
(28:21) There's no way that you bring two big utilities together and there's not political noise, especially
(28:26) with all the sensitivity right now highlighted by the data centers that there's that everyone has
(28:31) higher utility costs.
(28:32) So it has to to be fought, right?
(28:34) Like that's her job, to fight for the people and highlight the fact that they can't have rising
(28:38) energy costs because of this.
(28:39) OK.
(28:40) Qantas services Speaking of upgraded to overweight today at KeyBank, you have that.
(28:43) I was like what?
(28:44) Why no, I mean, I own it, but I don't think I would add to it.
(28:48) I mean, the company just had a blowout quarter though.
(28:50) So I understand we want to get on board.
(28:51) I would just wait for some weakness to put or a pullback.
(28:53) I mean, earnings growing 70%, revenues of 41%, backlog up 59%, just these are big, big numbers.
(29:00) They are in the sweet spot of electrification, EVs and all of that.
(29:05) Allstate downgraded to underweight.
(29:08) Target is at 2:50 at Wells Fargo.
(29:12) So growth is slowing.
(29:15) Margins are starting to compress.
(29:18) All all fair, all fair comments.
(29:19) And if we look at the daily chart, you think we'd be probably need to get out of this name at peak
(29:24) margins are coming down.
(29:25) I would submit they probably are.
(29:26) But if you stretch this back and you look at a one year chart, I mean this thing has been on fire,
(29:30) it's been on a tear.
(29:31) So if you're taking some profits up here and you tone down the estimates, I'm OK with that.
(29:36) Well, this says take a lot of profits.
(29:37) Like all of them, yeah.
(29:38) Well, we're not.
(29:41) We're not doing that.
(29:42) All right, let's just be clear.
(29:44) This isn't like a hey, trim a little bit off the top of a huge winner.
(29:48) This is and you just said what's what's interesting to me is that you said it's all fair if if you
(29:54) have peak, if you're having talking about peak margins and peak growth.
(29:58) I would think that the acceleration that we've seen over the past month can't continue forever.
(30:02) I don't agree with the 250 price target, but I do agree with the the fact that if you're at a peak
(30:07) margin, you're probably not going to go to the next peak.
(30:10) You're probably going to level off here.
(30:11) But this is adorable earnings story.
(30:13) You don't need to sell the stock here.
(30:15) I think it can be higher a year into the.
(30:16) Future.
(30:16) OK, what about Fiserv?
(30:17) Target goes to 78 from 90 at Mizuho today.
(30:20) They still like it.
(30:21) They reiterate outperform.
(30:23) I don't know about that we're it's on our chopping block, but it's very much like what Steph was
(30:26) saying about Honeywell Aerospace.
(30:28) If you're a new management team, maybe you get one, maybe two chances to guide down, reset the bar.
(30:33) But after that, you'd better get it right.
(30:35) These guys have been in place for over a year now.
(30:37) They've lost credibility.
(30:38) Like you know, the numbers, the numbers are still compelling and that's why that's why there's still
(30:42) a good price target.
(30:43) So it trades at 7 times as huge free cash flow.
(30:46) But you know, this is too much even for us.
(30:49) So we'll exit it.
(30:50) We're not exiting it today because there's still value there, but we'll be out of it.
(30:54) You, let us guess, is within six months.
(30:56) You let us know when we do have more committee moves coming up.
(30:58) I've teased it already.
(30:59) Kevin Simpson, it's a healthcare name.
(31:01) He's doubling down on one of those names, which as at record highs.
(31:05) It's another tease.
(31:07) The reveals next.
(31:26) We're back on halftime report.
(31:27) I'm Brandon Gomez with the CNBC NEWS UPDATE.
(31:29) A federal appeals court says President Trump must get approval from Congress before moving forward
(31:34) with his 400 million White House ballroom renovation.
(31:38) The court sided with historic preservationists and ordered construction to stop.
(31:42) The project is being built where the East Wing once stood.
(31:45) That order is on hold for two weeks, giving the administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court.
(31:50) At least seven people are dead after a 14 year old student opened fire at a high school outside
(31:55) Bangkok, Thailand.
(31:56) Officials say 5 school employees were killed and more than 20 people wounded.
(32:00) Authorities believe the teenager also killed his grandparents before the attack.
(32:04) Police say the teen then died by suicide, and ICE says all of its field officers will have body
(32:10) cameras by the end of September, following pressure for greater accountability after recent fatal
(32:15) shootings.
(32:16) But the agency's policy gives its director broad discretion to withhold footage, releasing records
(32:21) only when officials determine doing so is in the best interest of ICE.
(32:25) Scott, send it back to you.
(32:26) Brandon, thanks so much.
(32:27) That's Brandon Gomez.
(32:28) All right, another one of these Kevin Simpson moves today.
(32:31) Stock did hit a new record high yesterday, right?
(32:34) It's in a space that's the top sector over the past three months, but then did virtually nothing
(32:39) over the last month.
(32:41) And it's Amgen and you bought more.
(32:43) Tell me more.
(32:44) Yeah, I'm hoping this is one of those stocks making new highs and goes higher.
(32:47) We didn't want to wait after the earnings for a pullback because the earnings were just so good.
(32:52) Repatha, Evenity, a bunch of their other new therapies have all been adding to this accretive profit
(32:57) margin.
(32:58) They still have Maritide in the pipeline, which would be a one month shot for weight loss if they
(33:02) can get there.
(33:03) But they beat on the top line, they beat on the bottom line.
(33:06) They raise guidance.
(33:07) And I think that biotechs in general as well as healthcare can be some of the beneficiaries that
(33:12) most quickly from AI.
(33:14) So I'm excited about this name.
(33:16) We bought it post earnings and we tend to hold it for a long time.
(33:20) Jenny Edgard Denny says we're ready to rebound in healthcare.
(33:23) I mentioned again, you have to look at it a couple ways.
(33:25) Three months, great performance, top sector.
(33:29) Over the last month, though, it shows you how good it was in the first two months of the last three,
(33:34) because in the last month it's done nothing.
(33:36) Right now, it's prime for a rebound.
(33:37) You have some good exposure here.
(33:39) What do you think?
(33:39) Yeah.
(33:39) And you know, I like looking at Bristol-Myers as kind of the poster child for that where it's up
(33:44) 23%.
(33:44) I mean, even my Pfizer stock is up 10% this year, which isn't bad.
(33:48) But so when I hear prime for a rebound, you know, these stocks have been under so much pressure for
(33:53) so long that let's hope that what we've seen this year so far is just the beginning of that rebound
(33:58) and there's room to go you.
(33:59) Got Bristol-Myers, GSK, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Thermo Fisher, Zimmer.
(34:03) And, and some of them are up 10% and some of them are up 23%, but they're all up nicely on the air.
(34:08) So the rebounds already started.
(34:09) 52 week high for Bristol.
(34:10) Right.
(34:11) And Bristol was an interesting one this week because there is all sorts of rumors about them
(34:15) potentially being acquired by AstraZeneca.
(34:17) That turned out not to be true, but it highlighted that there's value there.
(34:21) And you look at a company like Bristol where we bought it two years ago, still only trading at less
(34:24) than 10 times earnings.
(34:26) They're producing 11 billion of free cash flow this year, 15 billion of free cash flow next year.
(34:31) They've got a 5 and change dividend yields, I'm sorry, a four and change dividend yield still.
(34:35) And there's value there.
(34:36) And the investment thesis today is the same as it was two years ago, which is with that much cash
(34:41) flow, they will be able to buy their way to growth.
(34:44) And that's starting to happen, even though they have all these patent expirations.
(34:47) And I think that's what you see more broadly in healthcare, Scott, is there's so much free cash
(34:52) being produced there and it's been undervalued and ignored and neglected.
(34:55) And so maybe now's the time.
(34:57) And that that kind of feeds into the broader market narrative where you see where you see Brett,
(35:01) right.
(35:01) Finally, people are saying, hey, $11 billion today.
(35:04) That's valuable to me.
(35:05) Show me Lilly, please. 1300's The New Target at Argus reiterated by their 1200 was the old.
(35:12) They're knocking up against that.
(35:14) What do you think?
(35:16) Absolutely.
(35:16) I mean, this is the highest quality healthcare company on the planet.
(35:20) I mentioned maritime with Amgen, but Zet bound Banjaro, they, they are the players in the space.
(35:25) They continue to do everything right.
(35:26) But I like most about Lily, it's not a one trick pony.
(35:29) There is a diversification underneath the surface here with their drug, I mean with their entire
(35:35) drug catalog, OK.
(35:38) You're done, I.
(35:40) Don't know how much we want to talk about Lily I It's a great stop.
(35:43) Well, you can talk about it till I tell you to stop.
(35:45) I wasn't sure you were done.
(35:46) Evaluation requires exceptional execution.
(35:48) I really like the.
(35:49) Name.
(35:49) All right, good stuff.
(35:50) Thank you.
(35:51) Natera New high strong, strong numbers there.
(35:54) BTIG goes to 3:20 on that name.
(35:56) They were at 290 before it's a little bit of a bump from here.
(35:58) What do you?
(35:59) Think, yeah, I mean it was a really good quarter.
(36:00) They beat and raise their minimal residual disease test called Cigna.
(36:04) Terra delivered 34,000 tests in the quarter.
(36:07) Sequentially, expectations were for 25,000.
(36:10) This is a total addressable market eventually to get to $7 billion.
(36:13) These guys are #1 in that space.
(36:16) And I, I just, I love this management team too.
(36:18) They're just really they're, they're wonderful doing the right things in terms of investing where
(36:21) they should be.
(36:22) Jenny, I ticked off the list of stocks that you own and I when I mentioned Roche, I didn't mention
(36:27) it.
(36:27) I got upgraded today to overweight.
(36:29) Morgan Stanley did that today.
(36:31) The target to 63, it was 46, so it had blown past that prior target.
(36:36) They offer a strong mix of visible growth and pipeline upside.
(36:40) What do you think?
(36:41) Right.
(36:41) And they've got strong oncology.
(36:43) They've got everything going for them other than for us because it's been it, because frankly, it's
(36:48) done so well.
(36:48) It's up 13% year to date and we've had it for a while now.
(36:51) We're down to a 3% dividend yield.
(36:53) So now our question becomes, does it still fit the strategy?
(36:56) And that's always the challenge, which is once these companies start to really pick up steam,
(36:59) sometimes the valuation no longer makes sense for us.
(37:02) Trading at 16 times.
(37:03) Great growth ahead, great stock, you know, but unfortunately, OK, we've got that discipline.
(37:09) OK.
(37:09) So we'll, we'll take a break.
(37:11) We, we told you at the top of the program about the huge move this week in, in, in Palantir.
(37:18) Can that momentum continue?
(37:20) We'll find out what the options market is saying, because Oliver Rennick is playing options action
(37:25) in that name next.
(37:43) All right, heck of a week for Palantir, up almost 39%.
(37:47) Oliver Rennick looking at the options activity from the SIBO Global Markets in Chicago for where the
(37:52) bets are being placed now on whether this can continue, what do you see?
(37:58) Insatiable appetite for Palantir Scott the stock adding on another 14 bucks today, extending its
(38:05) rally to almost 40% this week.
(38:07) Options traders think it's the real deal, piling into calls at a feverish pace. 1.1 million options
(38:14) plus have traded on Palantir for a total over $600 million in premium, almost 90% of which is tied
(38:23) to calls.
(38:24) Options volume is 4 times the 30 day average and Palantir is the fourth most traded stock in the
(38:30) market today after Tesla, NVIDIA, and SpaceX.
(38:32) This is a strong return to form after a rough year for Palantir.
(38:37) The biggest trader in the stock is also the second biggest trade in the entire market today.
(38:43) They sold $101 million of the 155 strike calls expiring September 18th, but bought $110 million
(38:52) worth of the 175 strike right calls expiring in December.
(38:56) It's a trade that fades some of this short term upward volatility, but is not necessarily bearish.
(39:02) Scott.
(39:03) Yeah, Oliver, thanks very much.
(39:06) Nice second sort of layer to Bryn, what's been a really big story this week.
(39:10) You have a reaction to what Oliver just told us.
(39:14) No, I think that's a good trade, right?
(39:15) They're selling calls to fund the buying, the buying of the stock.
(39:18) And I think you've had this big run, it's going to settle in and then it can continue its upward
(39:24) trajectory.
(39:25) I do think Palantir, the Microsoft, the snowflakes, they are in this software type ecosystem.
(39:32) And I just think that these companies, the jury has said AI is not going to take out these
(39:37) companies.
(39:38) And, and a company like Palantir, I think the shorts have to be on the lookout because they continue
(39:42) to execute.
(39:43) So I like what Oliver said about the, the, the call, the call positioning.
(39:47) I do think it can definitely go higher later on this year after it digests this really big move over
(39:53) the last week.
(39:54) Yeah, it's been a huge one.
(39:55) More than 38%, Brent.
(39:57) Thank you.
(39:57) All right, Copper, new record high yesterday.
(40:01) Gold's trying for its best week since January.
(40:03) Silver trying for its best week since February.
(40:08) Can the momentum in the metals continue?
(40:11) We'll trade that next.
(40:15) Welcome back.
(40:16) It's going to be the best week for the XME.
(40:19) That is the metals and mining index up 14%, best week since March of 2022.
(40:27) You think of this?
(40:28) Why is this happening right now, do you think?
(40:29) It's all the same trade.
(40:30) It's it's all the same trade, right?
(40:32) I mean, it's electrification, it's back, right?
(40:34) It's EVs are back, it's grid, it's power, it's anything AI food chain related.
(40:39) And well, at least copper and aluminum in my mind are going to be in deficits this year.
(40:44) And that's where I think is the most attractive less less excited about gold and silver.
(40:48) Understand though that silver has an industrial component to it.
(40:51) So I can kind of figure that out a bit and and get behind it.
(40:55) But I prefer copper and Antofagasta has done really well in the past year and they're really the
(40:59) best run copper company.
(41:02) Yeah, you have Alcoa too.
(41:03) Yeah, right.
(41:04) Alcoa, Antofagasta, right.
(41:07) Same thing.
(41:07) Jenny, you have Freeport and.
(41:09) Rio Freeport And just like Steph said, all roads lead to copper.
(41:12) Everywhere you look it's copper.
(41:13) Copper.
(41:14) And it's quietly risen to $6.60 this year.
(41:18) Reports up up 30% year today.
(41:20) But here's the thing, it's still only trading at 18 times earnings and it still has a 6% free cash
(41:25) flow yield.
(41:25) So that's why I think the wind could stay at the back, because they haven't gotten silly.
(41:29) Bryn.
(41:31) Yep.
(41:32) Well, I think 2 things, you know, FCC X, which I, it got called away from me does have a lot of
(41:37) resistance right at this level.
(41:39) I think with gold, you have two things.
(41:41) It bounced off the 200 day last week.
(41:43) But don't forget we did have this yen intervention, which is the third time this year we've
(41:48) happened.
(41:48) And so I do think there's this play in terms of just putting some probability of anything happening,
(41:55) let's say a macro accident with gold bouncing off that 200 day right in the face of the yen
(42:01) intervention.
(42:01) I mean, I own infl, which owns a basket of precious metals, base metals, energy names.
(42:07) And so to me, that's a good way where I can own it over like over time.
(42:11) And I don't get like caught up if gold has a big draw down our silver because they're diversified
(42:15) with an energy base, base metals and precious metals.
(42:19) OK, quick break.
(42:20) We're back with finals.
(42:25) If it's Friday, we have the professor, Jeremy Siegel on closing bell.
(42:28) Look forward to that.
(42:29) Mohamed El Erian with an op-ed today in the FT that the market is misreading the new Fed chair.
(42:35) We'll discuss and debate that.
(42:36) Obviously, Warren Pies, Malcolm Etheridge, Chris Toomey are going to join us and we look forward to
(42:41) that.
(42:41) We're in final trade.
(42:43) Netflix I think you can drift higher to about mid 80s by the year end.
(42:47) Kevin Simpson.
(42:48) Amazon, they're demonstrating how to make a return on their investments.
(42:52) Rainy day rum Raisin.
(42:53) Thank you.
(42:54) Tell the bro.
(42:54) Come on, tell your bro.
(42:55) Amcor 5.4% yield enough Competitors have reported that they have good numbers too.
(43:00) Estee Lauder.
(43:01) Alright, I'll see you at 3:00.
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