Title: Wall Street Firms Raise Stock Target: Your Next Move
Show: CNBC Halftime Report (podcast of the live noon ET show)
Host: Scott Wapner; Committee: Joe Terranova, Karen Firestone, Anastasia Amoroso, Jim Lebenthal
Date: 2026-08-10 (Monday)
URL: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7cJUJJ8lSytJgzIXklEjb2
Length: 46:42
Note: Spotify auto-generated transcript (accuracy may vary); (mm:ss) cues from Spotify transcript sections.

(0:00) I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC Halftime Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour
(0:07) of the trading day.
(0:08) We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern.
(0:11) Listen in.
(0:15) All right, guys, thanks so much.
(0:16) Welcome to the halftime report.
(0:17) I'm Scott Wapner front and center this hour.
(0:19) Higher targets for stocks.
(0:20) That is the story again today.
(0:22) More firms are joining the 8000 club and beyond.
(0:25) We'll tell you who's lifting their outlooks now.
(0:27) We'll trade a Big Apple downgrade as well.
(0:29) Joining me for the hour today, Joe Ternova, Carrie Firestone, Anastasia Amoroso and Jim Lebenthal.
(0:35) Let's check the markets here.
(0:37) S&P is green, Everything else is red.
(0:39) So we are at record highs.
(0:41) We, we have been, we're coming off the best week since April.
(0:45) Those guys were just talking about CPI on Wednesday.
(0:47) Going to be a big event, obviously with the Fed very much in focus.
(0:51) Oil's been higher, yields are up a little bit.
(0:53) You have 522 on the 30 year.
(0:55) Keep an eye on that.
(0:56) We certainly are.
(0:57) And then the other numbers that matter, JP Morgan goes to 8000, joining the club of what is a
(1:02) growing number of members.
(1:05) So there's your 30 year.
(1:06) So JP Ms. now at 8000.
(1:08) Why earnings growth seemingly why everybody else continues to raise their targets to Evercore today
(1:15) says the odds of a bull case to 9000 are rising as well.
(1:19) Tony Pascarella Goldman Sachs says both the fundamental backdrop and the technicals support a
(1:24) broader continuation of the bull trend.
(1:27) All that positionings cleaner deleveraging happened, gross leverage is down a bunch de grossing from
(1:35) hedge funds has taken place.
(1:37) So you got a cleaner outlook and that's one of the reasons why people are feeling pretty bullish
(1:42) across the board and it's.
(1:44) Steady as we go, the market continues to move higher, built upon phenomenal earnings, historic
(1:51) earnings.
(1:51) When you really go back and study the last seven quarters, 8000, I think that's kind of a foregone
(1:56) collusion conclusion.
(1:58) Kind of feels like it, right?
(1:59) Kind of feels like it here comes 9000, I don't know, Scott 10,000 by December of 2027, Why not?
(2:05) I think the market could get there if we continue to have this type of earnings growth.
(2:10) So I really like a lot of the notes and and Tony Pascarello's note was excellent just talking about
(2:16) how we've seen positioning reshape itself.
(2:19) You've seen the deleveraging that allows you to rebuild once again in the bull market.
(2:24) I think that's what we're seeing in the moment.
(2:26) It's about alpha generation.
(2:27) What's interesting about today and and you know the the Jyoti ETF at the end of July with the 10%
(2:33) waiting for energy.
(2:34) Well today we're getting rewarded for that.
(2:37) We're seeing a lot of capital flowing into energy today.
(2:40) If you look at the 11 Spyder ETFs, energy is actually seeing the strongest volume today.
(2:48) So the alpha generation opportunity might just be an energy in the near term because of lot of
(2:53) positioning stepped away from it.
(2:55) But overall, the market's in a good place.
(2:56) We.
(2:57) Haven't heard from you, Kerry in, in a minute.
(2:59) So there's a lot of bullishness obviously because earnings have been really strong and the estimates
(3:04) are that it's going to remain very much the same way.
(3:07) Are are you as bullish as the others are?
(3:09) Are now seemingly how they've gotten?
(3:13) Well, I, I think that it's great to be bullish right here.
(3:17) We had that pull back in June, July.
(3:20) That could happen if we get the market up another five, 6% because people will talk about now the
(3:27) market's a little bit ahead of itself.
(3:29) But what we've been going for us right now is that we finished earnings season rate numbers, I mean
(3:35) high double digits.
(3:37) I mean in the 20% range you've got more retail engagement.
(3:42) The retail buyer is the individuals are 25% of the market where there were 5%, you know, 25 years
(3:49) ago.
(3:50) Interest rates, even if they make a rate, even if there's one race still relatively low, odds are
(3:56) there'll be no change in that.
(3:58) Doesn't matter what happens to the war.
(4:00) Apparently the market doesn't seem to care enough.
(4:03) Then they assume it's going to be settled.
(4:06) And you know, I think that there is a belief that we're we're hearing more of it that the US equity
(4:11) market.
(4:12) It definitely is broadened out.
(4:14) We've got more participation.
(4:15) It is not just about 7 to 10 names.
(4:19) You've got financials acting while healthcare's up 15% in the last three months.
(4:23) You've got industrial strong this year.
(4:25) Even if those can't drive a market higher because they're not big enough, there's enough momentum in
(4:31) them.
(4:31) Yeah, the equal waste.
(4:33) The equal waste came off.
(4:34) It.
(4:34) Just Came Came came off its best week since May.
(4:36) Correct.
(4:37) It's up 15% this year versus 13.
(4:40) There's your broader story.
(4:43) I mean, as long as the earnings story remains intact, why change?
(4:47) You know, if if you were bullish, why change your stance as long as the earnings picture doesn't
(4:53) change?
(4:54) Unless you believe that the earnings picture itself is a bit of a bubble and then it only is
(4:59) eventually going to go one way and maybe sooner than people are expecting.
(5:04) I don't know.
(5:04) You tell me.
(5:05) I mean, I certainly don't believe that earnings is a bubble in aggregate.
(5:09) You know, if you look at the S&P 500, if you look at the small caps, if you look at the Bloomberg
(5:13) Developed Markets index, all of those earnings are picking up very nicely.
(5:16) And even though they are going to come off those peaks as we go into 2027, we're still going to be
(5:21) looking at 10, twelve, 15% earnings growth.
(5:24) So that is really quite solid.
(5:26) And Scott, the reason why I think this goes on is because there are what I call the three CS in the
(5:31) economy, which is corporates.
(5:33) Again, we talked about the strength, they're the CapEx, we've had the best rebound in capital goods
(5:38) numbers going back to 2022 and we have the consumer that is also continuing to hang in there.
(5:43) So maybe you know, the question is Scott, to your point is what kind of ruins that and maybe it's
(5:48) the Fed, that's probably the most plausible explanation that I could think about, but I don't think
(5:53) the Fed will actually do that.
(5:54) And you know we're waiting for those CPI numbers this week.
(5:57) But here's one stat that I wanted to share.
(5:59) If you start to adjust for real time, real world data, for example, the Zillow rent inflation, the
(6:05) real time inflation, the core CPI would actually be about 1.6%.
(6:10) So is that something that Fed Chair Warsh is doing right now?
(6:13) And is that what going to beat the numbers we're going to look at in September perhaps?
(6:16) So I don't think the Fed actually spoils this I.
(6:18) Feel like, you know, the market today is reflecting the fact of a wait and see for the CPI and you
(6:25) know, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
(6:27) But again, Wednesday morning, we'll get that read and then we can move on and figure out what
(6:31) actually it means for the Jackson Hole speech later this month.
(6:33) And then a September meeting when, you know, the the market still thinks there's a a reasonable
(6:38) chance of a of a hike perhaps, Although on the back of the jobs report last week, maybe those are
(6:43) diminished too.
(6:44) Let's talk about Apple.
(6:46) OK, let's show the chart because a rare event happened today.
(6:49) You just don't see it all that often that Apple gets a downgrade.
(6:52) This one was to underperform by Jeffries.
(6:56) The target goes to 263 in change from 285 in change they say here's the commentary that has moved
(7:04) the analyst to downgrade the stock to what is essentially a cell call Our supply chain checks
(7:10) suggests that the all glass iPhone supposed to come in September of 27 has been cancelled due to low
(7:16) yield.
(7:17) We view this as a major set back to efforts to bring the higher priced iPhones amid soaring memory
(7:22) costs.
(7:22) So if you're, you know, if you're paying more for memory, but you have a higher priced phone,
(7:29) obviously you can protect your margins a little bit better.
(7:32) And that seems to be one of the issues that they're hanging on as well.
(7:38) Apple just raised its trade in value for iPhone by 5%, about 2% in the US and Europe and potentially
(7:44) driving more pulled in demand for the iPhone 17.
(7:47) But more pressure on iPhone 18 sales, iPhone 19 Pro Max could move to 16 gigs of DRAM from 12,
(7:56) indicating still limited breakthrough in Apple intelligence.
(7:59) So Apple said to be testing Chinese memory chips.
(8:02) That's part of the story.
(8:03) There was another report out today that's making the rounds.
(8:05) A lot of people are talking about it that the cost of making the 18 Pro is up maybe 40%.
(8:11) So if you want to drive sales, you got to sacrifice margins potentially.
(8:18) All that is what people are thinking about today is the stock gets a rare downgrade to and
(8:22) underperform one of only, I think 5 in the universe of those who cover the stock and there are 51 in
(8:30) total.
(8:30) So 5 say bounce it, what do?
(8:33) You think, well it's an aggressive call to go to sell and for a taxable investor who's held this
(8:38) stock for any period of time, you have to really think that the stock would have to go down 25 ish
(8:43) percent if you're a federal tax player, more like 3035% if you add in state taxes.
(8:48) So that's kind of it's a big call.
(8:50) Now that said.
(8:50) You went to sell.
(8:52) I well.
(8:52) On half your position.
(8:53) That's right.
(8:54) I did because, and here's to the point that I generally agree with the the thesis that the analyst
(8:59) is putting out here.
(8:59) And when the stock was at 3:30 going into earnings, I thought that it was a little frothy.
(9:04) And I can, again, I do think the analyst has a point here and it's more like kind of death by a
(9:09) dozen cuts, if you will.
(9:10) There's margin pressure.
(9:11) We know the raw material inputs in terms of chips that are going in, the upgrades are kind of now
(9:17) listen, this is controversial, but to me, it's kind of met.
(9:19) I know everybody came out of Worldwide Developer Conference saying, hey, Apple's got it, Apple's got
(9:24) the AI.
(9:24) I kind of felt like this was the third, fourth year in a row where they promised something that,
(9:29) yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.
(9:31) And I think the market's kind of waking up to that a little, a little bit.
(9:34) So let me let me summarize this by if you have an oversized position, I don't think it's too late to
(9:40) take some of that off.
(9:41) If you're a long term holder and I've got shares that have a $15 cost basis, that's a pretty heavy
(9:47) lift for me to say to my clients, I'm going to give you a 25 to 35% tax bill, but maybe we'll get
(9:53) this at 200.
(9:54) I don't think that's going to happen.
(9:55) That's inherent in the sell call.
(9:57) But the trim call for stock shares that I had at like 190, I was happy to do that.
(10:02) What do you want to do with this because you have been one of, if not the biggest advocate.
(10:08) You and Josh probably together, have been the two biggest advocates on this program of this name.
(10:13) I've bought this stock 6 times.
(10:14) It's moved higher since March.
(10:17) The stock has had a 26% run higher from its June 25th low at 273.
(10:23) So I'm going to tell you what I'm seeing right now in front of us.
(10:27) What I'm seeing in front of us right now as it relates to momentum and positioning is that people
(10:33) are beginning to pare back their holdings concurrent to what Jimmy is saying.
(10:38) So it is losing near term momentum for sure.
(10:42) What does that mean?
(10:42) It means it is vulnerable for a deeper decline into what I see as the support of moving averages.
(10:48) I will take the other side of it when it gets there.
(10:51) I believe it will be a pause that refreshes based on the fundamentals as I see them and I will
(10:56) continue to add to the the position because I believe over the long term this is the mag seven that
(11:02) is going to stand out above the others.
(11:04) But in the interim, it is vulnerable to further.
(11:08) Down the the the chart looks like the stock peaked, at least for right now.
(11:12) There's a big, there's a, there's a big gap.
(11:14) But I'm also looking, I'm also looking at what I do proprietarily as it relates to momentum, what I
(11:21) see as it relates to positioning.
(11:23) And without question, the momentum on a daily basis continues to moderate.
(11:29) Significantly, you think the you have the stock, dude.
(11:31) You think the valuation question has started to resonate a little bit louder because it's one of the
(11:38) it's not maybe not the only knock, not dismissive of the AI questions, obviously, but you do hear it
(11:45) a lot.
(11:46) Stock is historically, you know, more expensive than it's ever been.
(11:50) I don't know what is it now, Like is it 32?
(11:52) If it's something like that, 33.
(11:54) Yeah, it was 33.
(11:55) It came down a little bit.
(11:56) Now I would say with Apple, there are always fundamental issues whether it's about manufacturing or
(12:01) about chips, about China, about competition and those heat up the more expensive the stock gets on
(12:08) APE basis.
(12:08) So when you're at 33 times mornings, it's easier for people to use all of these arguments against it
(12:15) and the market to listen because of valuation.
(12:18) And people move some, if they're overweight, that means it's 7 or 8% of their portfolio.
(12:24) That's a big chunk to weigh into Apple.
(12:27) So you reduce it to 5% or 4% and the stock may come down and then people will get on the bandwagon
(12:33) again, which they do over time.
(12:37) Every single time it gets to be in the, you know, 20, three times earnings, it's very cheap and then
(12:43) they load up again.
(12:44) So I think this is a normal cycle and I don't have a problem holding the apple because we don't have
(12:51) the 7% position.
(12:52) We just have a good size position.
(12:54) This is kind of a typical pattern, isn't it?
(12:58) Stock is like on a beeline higher, the company reports earnings and then there's some profit taking
(13:06) off of the beeline higher.
(13:08) Has anything really fundamentally changed since the earnings report?
(13:12) So great point and my answer is a solid no.
(13:15) But relative to where the stock went, I mean, I, I'm not going to look as, as I'm talking to the
(13:20) camera, but if we pulled up like a 20 year chart, we would see that that chart is pretty much
(13:24) straight from the lower left to the upper right just.
(13:26) Look at a one year.
(13:27) I mean a one year looks even better than that.
(13:29) Well, I mean that.
(13:30) So that chart is showing the point that I'm trying to make.
(13:32) It has highs and lows even in that overall trend line.
(13:35) So what Carrie and Joe are saying about there will be a time to add back what I took off.
(13:41) Absolutely.
(13:42) And I don't think it's $200 a share.
(13:44) And you know, if I sold it at 3:30 and you know, if this got down to 270, boy, I'm back in If.
(13:49) You're going to say who has pricing power in that universe?
(13:53) Does anybody have more the fundamentals than they do?
(13:56) Well, the fundamentals are at least from a memory chip cost standpoint.
(14:01) The fundamentals have changed in that regard.
(14:04) They got to pay up.
(14:05) They're trying to figure out how to offset to at least protect as much margin as you can.
(14:09) That that's a fundamental issue, is it not?
(14:12) It is if in fact your consumer is not willing to pay the price increases that you know are coming.
(14:20) We don't know whether they are.
(14:21) They're not.
(14:22) At what point do they balk, I mean.
(14:23) What time?
(14:24) History would suggest, OK, they they obviously have this incredible installed base, but everybody's
(14:30) got a price.
(14:32) Right.
(14:32) Everyone has a price, but I think given the economic climate you're in right now and how valuable
(14:38) the phone is to all of us, more valuable as others have said than your automobile.
(14:43) I would suspect that with strength in the economy if they are ultimately going to be raising prices
(14:49) attributable to what we're seeing with memory challenges that the consumer will stay there and
(14:53) we'll.
(14:54) Continue with the subsidies look like too from the from the carriers.
(14:57) You have to have a fundamental thesis surrounding what ultimately is going to happen, and I think
(15:02) you have to maintain a favorable 1.
(15:04) Make this quick because I want to hear from Anastasia.
(15:06) But if you look at a long term 10 year chart, a price to earn earnings multiple or PEG ratio, we're
(15:10) clearly at the top.
(15:11) Carrie, you were saying this 33 times forward earnings is simply too expensive.
(15:15) That's a place to trim if you don't have $15 cost basis stock.
(15:18) But if you get down to 25 times forward earnings, and I'd be surprised if you actually get that low,
(15:24) you add it.
(15:25) So you know, 27 we start talking about the PEG ratio right now is 3.9 price to earnings over growth
(15:31) of earnings.
(15:31) That's just, it's just too high so.
(15:33) It's a good.
(15:33) It's a good, I think the mechanism to talk about tech, which was the top sector last week, up 7
(15:39) 1/2%, almost 7 1/2% the week alone, best since mid-april.
(15:44) What do you make of that trade right now?
(15:46) I think you have to differentiate within parts of tech.
(15:47) And I do want to comment on Apple just from a macro perspective.
(15:50) Look, everybody is in the memory semiconductor trade.
(15:53) And I think from a contrarian standpoint, at some point you're going to resolve those bottlenecks.
(15:57) At some point those average selling prices are going to come down.
(16:00) Not great for the stock prices of semiconductors, but actually probably great for somebody like
(16:04) Apple.
(16:05) The other thing I would say, the market has been obsessed with free cash flow of the hyperscalers.
(16:09) But if you look at free cash flow of a stock like Apple, it is actually sizable.
(16:14) The yield is about 3 1/2 percent.
(16:16) So it's actually better than some of the other ones.
(16:18) So I think as a balance in your portfolio, it does make sense to have something like Apple to kind
(16:23) of compare and contrast with all the high beta semiconductor chips.
(16:26) But Scott, to your point, where I actually find the most value in the tech space right now is
(16:31) actually in those same hyperscalers because the credit markets are scrutinizing the free cash flow.
(16:36) The equity investors have been a little bit more cautious.
(16:38) But so guess what, there is CapEx, but then there's ROI on that AI CapEx as well.
(16:43) And I actually think when you project out the free cash flow, let's say year, 2 years down the road,
(16:48) it is likely to inflect back into positive territory.
(16:51) So probably the biggest undervalued trade there right now.
(16:54) How about NVIDIA?
(16:55) OK, coming off a monster week, up 11%.
(16:58) That was its best week since May of 25, reiterated today by top sector pick at B of A.
(17:03) What do we think of this after that week that this stock woke up big time?
(17:08) Last week it woke up and it is tracing out a similar pattern to which I identified an apple several
(17:14) months ago.
(17:15) I think the stock is in the midst of a breakout.
(17:17) I think we are in a period right now because we have such favorable fundamental conditions.
(17:22) It is a good marketplace that you see investors and characterize investors however you want.
(17:28) Are they are investors like Jimmy who are looking at fundamentals at PE and PEG ratios or like
(17:33) myself, they're looking at quantitative strategies that the the Jane streets, the Citadel's of the
(17:38) world.
(17:38) Everyone's hunting for alpha and new alpha opportunities.
(17:42) And what's interesting about technology is you're seeing new momentum building in NVIDIA, while the
(17:48) momentum is waning an Apple.
(17:49) Alphabet.
(17:50) What about alphabet?
(17:51) So the the momentum is actually waning in alphabet since the announcement last week, that's right,
(17:56) about losing the chief science officer, You know, it was the.
(17:59) Only one last week that was down, yes, right.
(18:02) So tech has this huge week, NASDAQ has this huge week.
(18:06) Alphabet is the only one that's down.
(18:08) Amazon barely did anything but Alphabet was actually in the red on the the.
(18:12) AI brain drain.
(18:12) So let me tell you what I do with that information personally, I look at that information, I say,
(18:16) OK, I recognize of maintaining a position that's losing momentum.
(18:20) Is there something that I want to do with it personally to hedge against it?
(18:23) The answer to that as it relates to alphabet is no within technology itself.
(18:28) I want to be clear about this.
(18:30) The building momentum in the actual laggard component of technology is software, and it continues.
(18:38) Do I trust?
(18:38) It no, it's coming back.
(18:39) You know I told you I don't.
(18:41) Trust.
(18:42) I don't.
(18:43) Trust my friend.
(18:44) I don't trust it.
(18:45) I've said all along if you think software is coming back, you buy private equity.
(18:48) I told you last week about Palantir those.
(18:49) Have been going up too.
(18:50) Right.
(18:50) I told you about Palantir.
(18:52) I'm seeing right now this is a market that wants to hunt for the alpha in areas where you can
(18:58) identify an equity name as a laggard and you see new momentum.
(19:02) And in the technology space, it's clearly in software.
(19:05) So there's a lot there.
(19:07) Number one, on the software thing.
(19:08) So it was up 8 1/2 percent last week.
(19:12) Jonathan Krinsky says reports of software's death have been greatly exaggerated.
(19:16) Goldman today says we're at the beginning of a multi quarter fundamental inflection point over the
(19:22) last week.
(19:23) I told you what the index itself did.
(19:25) That's the IGV individual names within it.
(19:28) Palantir's huge burst last week is is well known at this point.
(19:32) It was up more than 30%.
(19:34) Atlassian was up 40 plus ServiceNow is up 9 1/2, Snowflake 7 1/2.
(19:40) The cyber names like Crowd Strike in Palo Alto up 6 and 5% respectively.
(19:46) Oracle's up 3 1/2 percent last week.
(19:49) Why aren't you a believer?
(19:51) I trust the move in cyber.
(19:53) I trust the move and Zoom Communications, which has the relationship with Anthropic.
(19:58) We are on the cusp of having further IP OS, whether it is from Anthropic data bricks or Open AI.
(20:06) I still think there is going to be significant disintermediation and disruption as it relates to the
(20:11) software companies to the degree to which I don't think reaches the levels of the software
(20:17) apocalypse that we all described earlier in the year.
(20:20) I don't think it gets to that level.
(20:22) But I'm not just confident in buying these names right now and believing that over the next several
(20:29) quarters they are going to significantly outperform the return that I'm going to get where I am
(20:33) right now in semi, semi equipment and some of the Max snow.
(20:36) 52 week high crowd record high.
(20:39) Palo Alto was also at a record high today, so being that, that's been an interesting story too.
(20:44) What do you think?
(20:45) Yeah, I think the software names were oversold dramatically.
(20:50) And that was first of all, they were just on a technical basis.
(20:53) They got to a level that were undeniably attractive.
(20:57) Microsoft is up 39% in this recent run.
(21:01) People were talking about Microsoft is dead, no one's going to touch Microsoft.
(21:04) It all seemed crazy.
(21:05) Target today, by the way, goes to 660 from 647 at Bernstein Outperform on Microsoft.
(21:10) We'll get to the targets being too high, but the fact is how do we live without Outlook?
(21:16) I mean, how do we live without our calendar?
(21:17) So I, I'm, I'm a believer that Microsoft can continue to run.
(21:21) If you look at Google, it had a really big run from March to the recent high and now it's come back.
(21:28) People will get concerned, those salesman shares, then they'll start to buy you.
(21:32) Know that that software has done well when we talk about it before we even get to semis.
(21:36) For the most part, we hit we hit NVIDIA, but we didn't even mention yet Taiwan semis sales up 45%.
(21:43) You own that name.
(21:44) Yeah, I mean, it's incredible.
(21:47) I mean, there's demand.
(21:48) We hear about it all the time.
(21:49) How much of it are we using?
(21:51) I mean, think about what we're asking.
(21:54) Whatever, you know, clawed chachibi every single day, building models, making charts.
(21:59) I mean, I think it's ridiculous.
(22:01) It's my best friend.
(22:02) So I I believe that you you have to drive all this with chips.
(22:06) The chips come from TSL.
(22:08) So Adam Parker the other day was with me and said Micron's probably going to double from here.
(22:13) So he's super bullish that reiterated outperformed By the way, Mizuho 1375 is the target.
(22:19) So I mean, that's not so far off of, you know, the way AP is thinking about it.
(22:23) How about UBS 1625?
(22:25) That's that's right in that ballpark.
(22:27) Jimmy as well.
(22:29) He says he does not think that the associated stocks in the semis related to this whole trade are
(22:36) even close to peaking.
(22:37) Yeah.
(22:38) Well, that's the question is where are we in the cycle?
(22:41) I bought Mike Ronskott as you know in two tranches not that long ago at the last earnings report and
(22:46) just after average price 1000, you see the stock at 877 right now.
(22:50) I got a lot of client clients saying, hey, why did you buy it at that price?
(22:53) And the answer is because if the cycle is going to be elongated by years, which is what I think,
(22:59) then buying this stock at six times earnings, forward earnings, which is roughly what it is right
(23:03) now with those earnings growing through the roof and with the company about to anniversary the CHIPS
(23:09) act, after which it can start buying back shares at six times earnings.
(23:13) It's a great set up.
(23:14) Now the bare case is that the AI trade is a bubble.
(23:18) The data centers are going to stop being built.
(23:20) The demand for Microns chips and everybody's chips is going to plummet.
(23:23) I just don't believe that.
(23:25) I don't believe that when we see all the hyperscaler reports over the last two weeks that showed
(23:29) nothing but growth and growth increasing.
(23:32) So I agree with Adam on Micron.
(23:34) Last comment on Chips Anastasia.
(23:36) I think the runway for them is not over, but I do think the risks are building and eventually these
(23:40) bottlenecks will get resolved.
(23:42) And I think the ultimate beneficiaries are actually those software stocks.
(23:45) So that's where I would be looking to rotate to.
(23:48) By the way, fundamentals of software are still intact today.
(23:51) Loans have rebounded and looking at earnings growth, it is running about 22%.
(23:55) So I would be slowly pivoting to software.
(23:57) OK, we will take a break.
(23:59) Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings over the weekend.
(24:04) They're deploying some of that massive amount of cash as well.
(24:08) Not everybody's happy about that.
(24:10) We'll talk about that coming up.
(24:28) Right, welcome back.
(24:28) Take a look at Berkshire Hathaway, up 2% reported on Saturday.
(24:32) The highlights seem to be they bought more stocks than they sold and the new CEO Greg Abel is
(24:39) deploying some of that massive cash hoard declined for the first time since early of 2022.
(24:47) So Michael Bury on X posted quote My biggest fear for Berkshire Hathaway was that when Warren
(24:53) finally stepped down, the successor would be too old and otherwise not Warren so would not have his
(24:58) patience for the fat pitch.
(25:00) I believe this fear has come true.
(25:03) Do not find Berkshire an attractive investment going forward.
(25:07) What do you think?
(25:07) You own the stock.
(25:08) I respectfully disagree.
(25:09) Here's why.
(25:10) If you strip, strip out the stock holdings from the market cap and just look at the operating
(25:15) companies trades at about 13 times forward earnings.
(25:17) And you know what those operating companies are Burlington, Northern Class 1 Railroad, Berkshire
(25:22) Energy, which is huge, precision cast parts, aerospace, I mean I can go on and on, but you get the
(25:27) point.
(25:27) You're getting basically 13 times forward earnings for the US economy.
(25:32) And then on top, top of that, the stock portfolio, you look at some of the things they've done like
(25:36) buying Alphabet on the secondary, buying their own shares.
(25:41) I just, I, I, I disagree.
(25:43) I find this compelling here.
(25:45) So UBS raises the price target to six O 4 from 585.
(25:50) They cite the earnings beat and the deployment of capital.
(25:56) Cowan reiterates hold.
(25:58) CFRA reiterates hold.
(26:01) They talk about the further evaporation of the Buffett premium, tempering their view.
(26:06) You don't have this anymore because of the lack of momentum, correct?
(26:12) I think you dropped it in the quarter preceding this, correct?
(26:15) Latest one if I remember right.
(26:16) And the price was 431, which would indicate that's not a good trade.
(26:21) So what do you think of it here though?
(26:24) I think that I actually like the fact that Greg Abel, first of all, is buying back stock.
(26:29) I like that.
(26:30) I always want to see Berkshire doing that.
(26:32) I like that he's being aggressive.
(26:34) He's putting his signature on the company, 10 billion towards Alphabet.
(26:39) Taylor Morrison purchased Jimmy what?
(26:41) Home Builder 7.
(26:42) Billion.
(26:43) It was close to 7 billion.
(26:45) I like the fact that he's putting his signature now.
(26:47) Are some of the deals not going to be good?
(26:49) Of course not.
(26:50) That's that's what this this industry is.
(26:53) But along the way, to make an omelette, you have to crack some eggs.
(26:57) And I want him to do exactly not just sit, not sit in the chair and live off the reputation.
(27:03) Sure, I wish we still had a position.
(27:04) But part of Mr. Buffett's, I mean genius, was assembling mountains of cash at various times
(27:13) throughout Berkshire's history.
(27:15) Waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting.
(27:17) Pitch comes right down the middle.
(27:18) Boom.
(27:19) It's a lot of count.
(27:19) Of the stadium okay, right.
(27:21) Can I just respond real quick?
(27:22) Yes, Sir.
(27:23) When, when he was doing that at what was really historic moments for this country, those to your
(27:30) point, those were big swings, but those were big deals.
(27:34) The deals that Greg Abel are doing, they're de minimis.
(27:37) They're very small deals.
(27:38) How about this?
(27:39) Here's not so hot of a take.
(27:41) It's been 5 quarters since Warren Buffett announced he was stepping down.
(27:44) The dissolution of the Buffett premium, I will submit, has already happened.
(27:49) But not necessarily with the alphabet when the alphabet news.
(27:53) I mean, if we could figure a chart, a custom chart guys.
(27:56) And if you, if you could do that for me, please from, you know, the day that that news broke that
(28:03) Buffett personally was the one who got into alphabet to, you know, the most, the most recent period,
(28:10) I'm guessing it's going to look pretty good.
(28:14) I think the Buffett premium still counts for a lot.
(28:17) OK, I mean, there's, you know, you don't.
(28:19) Think so.
(28:20) I think it has diminished a lot.
(28:23) I don't think an incremental buyer or seller right now is doing it on Buffett's impact
(28:28) notwithstanding what you just cited.
(28:31) I would also point out like put let's put relative.
(28:33) Numbers, it's a small sample size that we're looking at this chart guys.
(28:36) Thanks so much for doing that for me.
(28:38) So from mid-july.
(28:41) Well, he announced it in what is that a month?
(28:43) He announced it in May.
(28:44) Wait, when did he do this?
(28:45) May of 2025, I mean, when that announcement came out, granted he stepped down in December of last
(28:51) year, but it's really been 15 months since the market has said, hey, he's stepping down that.
(28:56) Was this the catalyst for people to start drawing down the Buffett premium with regards to Alphabet?
(29:02) Excellent point.
(29:03) I would just put it into perspective of $10 billion.
(29:06) I mean like they make that in 1/4.
(29:08) I'm not going to do the math on the Treasury holdings.
(29:10) They've got 336 billion in treasuries for odd percent, 14 billion a year just in.
(29:16) OK.
(29:17) My timing is a little, little bit off, but I mean that's just a drop in the bucket compared to their
(29:21) cash and.
(29:22) I mean, what's, what does that stock look like, by the way, the Berkshire shares from the day that
(29:28) Mister Buffett said that he was stepping down as CEO and that Greg Abel was taking it full time.
(29:34) Underperformed, but which goes to my point, which I do think the Buffett premium being removed has
(29:40) mostly happened.
(29:41) Could be wrong.
(29:42) Who's going to know?
(29:42) This is where a market gets made.
(29:44) But I think it has mostly happened.
(29:45) Again, I don't think the incremental buyer or seller here is doing it on the surprise factor of,
(29:51) hey, Buffett may not have his hands on the levers.
(29:53) Anymore slightly underperformed.
(29:54) I'm looking at it.
(29:55) The high on May 2nd was 542.
(29:58) Or 530?
(29:59) We're 530.
(30:00) Is it still didn't get above a trillion in market cap?
(30:03) It did, didn't it?
(30:05) Didn't Berkshire go above a trillion in market cap?
(30:07) I don't know if.
(30:07) It's, I believe it is.
(30:08) It's still.
(30:08) There, right.
(30:09) Yeah, yeah.
(30:10) It's 1.1.
(30:10) It's 1.1 trillion.
(30:12) But look, we began the show talking about a really good economy, talking about broadening out.
(30:17) Well, this is a holding.
(30:18) That's a classic example of the broadening out.
(30:20) Where are they?
(30:21) They're in energy, they're in manufacturing, they're in healthcare, they're in insurance.
(30:26) So if if it's a good economy and everything's broadening out, you should expect that they'll do
(30:30) well.
(30:30) You'll learn a lot about them if they underperform in that type of environment for sure.
(30:35) OK, let's get a news alert on NVIDIA.
(30:36) Leslie Picker has that for us.
(30:38) Hey Les.
(30:38) Hey Scott, this is a headline coming from the.
(30:40) Financial.
(30:41) Financial Times saying that the biggest some of the biggest Wall Street giants, including Apollo,
(30:47) Blackstone, Black Rocks Global.
(30:49) Infrastructure Partners unit Brookfield, Goldman and KKR are entering A partnership with NVIDIA to
(30:56) provide $500 billion worth of.
(30:59) Financing.
(31:00) They cite that to five people briefed on the talks, and they say this deal could be announced as
(31:05) soon as Monday.
(31:06) They don't really give as much detail.
(31:08) About kind of where that money would come from, debt.
(31:11) Equity and what specifically it would be invested in other than just to say it will be part of a
(31:17) big.
(31:18) AI financing deal comprising about $500 billion.
(31:22) You can see NVIDIA moving slightly lower on those headlines, down about 2.6% right now.
(31:29) Also as part of the article, it said all of the major players, including the financiers, as well as
(31:34) NVIDIA declining to comment.
(31:36) We have not independently.
(31:37) Verified this story.
(31:38) We do have calls out, and we will.
(31:40) Get back to you as soon as we learn more, Scott.
(31:42) All right.
(31:42) Good stuff at the headline for us.
(31:44) Thank you.
(31:44) Leslie Picker beat goes on right.
(31:47) The AI beat goes on.
(31:49) These are numbers.
(31:50) Oh, sorry.
(31:51) Sorry.
(31:52) Yeah, real quick then and.
(31:53) These are just numbers, 500 billion of additional financing and you go really, I mean, let's think
(31:59) about that in terms of size.
(32:01) Wow.
(32:02) Yeah.
(32:02) It's a gargantuan undertaking that we have to build out the AI ecosystem and it's going to take
(32:07) years and it's going to take debt capital, equity capital.
(32:10) It's certainly going to take private markets as well.
(32:12) But again, I think we have to scrutinize some of the valuations at this point because it is not a
(32:17) new development.
(32:18) It is a well known trade at this point.
(32:19) OK, we'll watch that down 2 3/4 percent or so.
(32:22) Contessa Brewer has the news headlines.
(32:25) The CNBC NEWS UPDATE for us.
(32:26) Hi there.
(32:27) Hi there, Scott.
(32:27) A Ukrainian drone attack on a petroleum hub in central Russia killed 13 people, including a child,
(32:33) according to local Russian.
(32:34) Authorities 78 people they say were also injured.
(32:37) Ukraine says its forces targeted an oil refinery 750 miles.
(32:42) Inside the border, Neither side's claims have been independently verified.
(32:46) A pedestrian died in Dallas late Friday night after being.
(32:49) Struck by two vehicles, including an unoccupied Waymo robo taxi.
(32:54) Police say an SUV hit the man first.
(32:57) Pushing him into the opposite lane where the driverless Wemo also struck him.
(33:02) Wemo says the robo taxi sent the pedestrian and was able to slow down.
(33:06) He died, though at the hospital.
(33:08) Police are investigating.
(33:09) So far, no charge is announced.
(33:12) And the crew of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg's super yacht in the hot seat after not responding to a
(33:19) radio request from a small boat nearby that ran out of fuel off Alaska's coast.
(33:23) A Meta spokesperson says the crew never heard the call and another ship was already assisting when
(33:29) the crew actually saw the message.
(33:31) Zuckerberg was not aboard that yacht, Scott.
(33:34) OK, Contessa, thank you so much for that.
(33:36) That's Contessa Brewer coming up next to ETF Edge.
(33:39) Dom Chu tells us what's coming up.
(33:41) Hey there.
(33:41) All right, So Scott, the world of ETFs is going by leaps and bounds and a lot of it's being powered
(33:46) by the rise of active and thematic funds, AI and obvious driver of that boom.
(33:50) But outside of AI where?
(33:52) Are some of the bigger?
(33:53) Thematic opportunities.
(33:54) We're going to chat with the fund manager on the hottest parts of the market that should be on your
(33:58) radar in the coming months.
(33:59) That's coming up on ETF Edge on the halftime report.
(34:02) Keep it right here.
(34:10) All right.
(34:10) Welcome back.
(34:11) I'm Dominic Chu with your ETF Edge on the halftime report.
(34:14) AI excitement's being at least the driver now thematic ETF trading, but some of the bigger thematic
(34:19) opportunities could lie outside of artificial intelligence.
(34:23) Joining me now for this conversation is John Davi, the founder, CEO and CIO of Astoria Investment
(34:28) Management.
(34:30) AI, we know it.
(34:30) We we know the returns, we've seen them.
(34:32) There's questions about valuations.
(34:34) But if you're trying to find that next thing that should be in your portfolio outside of AI, where
(34:40) should we be looking?
(34:41) Yeah.
(34:41) So we would say you should evolve your portfolio to AI adopters, right?
(34:45) So we like banks, right?
(34:46) Banks are heavily invested in AI.
(34:49) They have a strong IPO calendar, strong M&A calendar, they're cheaper than the market, strong
(34:53) balance sheet, and they have a favorable rate environment setup.
(34:57) So KBWB is 1 ETF that we're using to play that.
(35:01) The second one is we just think like in general, you should evolve from the US hyperscalers to other
(35:06) beneficiaries.
(35:07) So we like emerged markets and we have, so we sold, you know, about two years ago, we underweighted
(35:12) like US hyperscalers and we bought emerged markets.
(35:15) And, you know, they're, they're also part of the AI trade and they've done, you know, quite well
(35:19) since.
(35:19) And how do you how do you exactly kind of get that exposure?
(35:23) Is it just emerging markets in general?
(35:24) They can just buy a country or a kind of broader, you know, thematic fund for that?
(35:29) Or do you have to look at the types of industries or the geographies specifically that you want to
(35:33) go into?
(35:33) Yeah.
(35:34) So we chose the broad emerging market IMG.
(35:36) It's, you know, cheap liquid and you know, rather than going country.
(35:41) Specific where you take a lot of you know, country specific bet and stock specific bet.
(35:45) We just think you know IMG in general it's up 20% year to date.
(35:49) It's out before formed, you know, the hyperscale is here in the US.
(35:52) All right, so emerging markets and banks, possible beneficiaries of that AI boom.
(35:57) John Davi, thank you very much for that.
(35:58) Now, we're going to continue this conversation over at etfedge.cnbc.com.
(36:03) John is going to be joined by Niko Lakwa, the CEO of Corgi, which Scott has made a lot of waves for
(36:09) bringing a ton of funds to market in a very short amount of time.
(36:13) We'll ask him why an AI insurance company is getting into the ETF business.
(36:16) I'll send things back over to you.
(36:17) All right, Dom, good stuff.
(36:19) Appreciate that.
(36:19) That's Dom Ju.
(36:20) Speaking of the ETF business, Joe just made a number of moves in energy in his ETF.
(36:25) That's the best sector today by a lot timing pretty good.
(36:30) We'll talk about that next.
(36:36) All right, welcome back.
(36:38) Oil's back above 80, OK, that, that's a headline in and of itself.
(36:42) So that energy is up, you know, 3 1/2 percent, 3.6% as a sector by far the best there's your 4% move
(36:50) in crude that that move today is is suggestive of we can't pull the right cards yet to get the
(36:58) straight open and the markets making the bet that oil is going to remain elevated for a longer
(37:05) period of time until we have a hand that we can play to get this straight open.
(37:10) I think the market is also proven to us this year that it could live with oil and Anastasia, I know
(37:16) you follow this closely, but I think $90.00 oil and the market is OK with that as long as you have
(37:22) the earnings growth.
(37:23) So there's a lot of room to get from where we are today at 81 to the mid 90s.
(37:27) But we thought we were going the other direction.
(37:29) We thought we were going the other direction and let's double click on that for a second because
(37:32) what is that?
(37:33) That's positioning, and I'm always looking at positioning.
(37:36) And then where is the momentum relative to that?
(37:39) So quarter to date, energy's up 8%, S and PS up 3%.
(37:44) But over the last five days, energy's look horrible.
(37:46) Energy's down nearly 3 1/2%, while the S and PS up 3 1/2 percent.
(37:50) Well, because we keep hearing that we're we've got a deal, we're getting a deal, they want a deal
(37:54) and we don't have a deal.
(37:56) We don't have a deal and people push to the sidelines and you see that longs of energy, OK, are
(38:03) reduced.
(38:04) Disbelief builds surrounding the ability for energy to go higher.
(38:09) And I look at that and I look at the setup and I see what we did go into 10% in energy and say
(38:13) remind us of the like where we are.
(38:15) Remind us of the names that you just added so people have it right in front of that.
(38:18) Across the board.
(38:19) I'm just going to read them to you because it's quite, quite a bit chenier Conoco enterprise product
(38:25) partners carry Exxon Kinder Morgan 1 Oak Targa, Texas Pacific land.
(38:31) I know Jenny likes that Williams company.
(38:33) So we're we're across the board getting very regressive you're.
(38:36) Probably 3 * 10%.
(38:38) Three times 10%.
(38:39) Energy, energy, waiting and responding to what we're seeing in the market.
(38:44) I like the setup because I don't think people trust the energy.
(38:47) I think people think energy is going right back to 65.
(38:51) I can see it going.
(38:51) Well, let me put you this way.
(38:53) You get a, you get a deal, you get the straight open energy probably is going back to 65.
(38:58) How long is it open?
(38:59) For, well, I don't know.
(39:00) I mean, that's a whole lot really though, is it really?
(39:02) I mean, open, open, open.
(39:04) But even if it's open, open, we have drawn down significant inventories.
(39:08) And actually what also happened is we've bumped up our production.
(39:11) You mentioned Cheniere, whether it's LNG production, whether it's a natural gas, we've bumped that
(39:15) up.
(39:15) So the pipelines, parts of the energy ecosystem can continue to do well.
(39:20) And also, Scott, I think, you know, gone are the days where we're going to rely on supply coming out
(39:24) of the Middle East.
(39:25) It's all about getting supply in other places, whether it's US, Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela.
(39:30) So I actually think there's still a lot to do in energy even if the stray does reopen.
(39:35) And while we're still negotiating this peace deal or not, I think it's a definitely, definitely hold
(39:41) in the portfolio because it gives you that optionality if if there's another geopolitical flare up.
(39:47) So I like this sector because I find it very easy to analyze.
(39:51) So three of the names or two of the names that you mentioned, just as an example, ExxonMobil, you
(39:55) know what they do, They not only explore and produce, but they refine.
(39:58) Joe, you've been a big one on the refiners.
(40:01) It's been the winning trade.
(40:02) That's by the way, where the bottleneck is in the energy industry.
(40:05) It's in the refining sector, which ExxonMobil is a big player in.
(40:08) Then you get something a little more specialized like Chenier, which you mentioned, and Anastasia,
(40:13) what you were just saying it exports through its pipelines, liquefied natural gas.
(40:17) My point on.
(40:17) On this is this is analyzable and much of what I just said has little to do with whether oil is at
(40:23) $90.00 a barrel or $70 a barrel.
(40:26) These are fundamental forces beyond the price of oil.
(40:28) They have to do with innate capacity, innate infrastructure.
(40:32) I find it very easy to analyze.
(40:35) I would say that energy is not that important to the market over overall.
(40:41) It's 3.2% weighted.
(40:43) The large companies don't use much oil and gas, that's for sure.
(40:47) They don't need it. the US is independent.
(40:50) We are net exporters, not importers, and I think it's fine.
(40:54) It's a good trade.
(40:56) There's no reason it's been the best.
(40:58) It's been the best over the last year, but it's it has been the best 41% as a sector over everything
(41:05) else.
(41:05) You can AI me till the cows come home 41%.
(41:09) I'm just going to actually AI you, Scott, because you know, you can't power data centers without
(41:13) energy.
(41:14) And so for example, as energy infrastructure investors, we think about install power, we think about
(41:19) new power generation, we think about mobile power.
(41:21) And guess what?
(41:22) For all of that, you need the molecule, You need the natural gas, you need the oil.
(41:26) By the way, got a positive note today on the street.
(41:28) Scott humor, man, Make it quick.
(41:29) Is it a trade or is it an investment?
(41:32) ExxonMobil bellwether for the industry last five years, five years annualized 27% return per annum.
(41:39) The S&P 513%.
(41:41) It's an investment.
(41:42) I can encourage anyone to do one thing.
(41:44) It's buyer, refiner.
(41:45) We're coming into hurricane season.
(41:47) I hope there's no hurricanes.
(41:49) What if in fact there is a hurricane?
(41:51) The disruption is what do you like the best marathon Phillips on Valero, So I'll say Valero, but you
(41:56) could have Phillips 66.
(41:57) You got a Marathon or Valero?
(41:59) Any of them All right.
(42:00) Santoli's now
(42:21) senior markets commentator Michael Santoli, also the Overtime Co anchor, joins us now for his midday
(42:26) word.
(42:27) Yields are up, that's one issue and the CPI is looming on Wednesday.
(42:31) That seems to be the other.
(42:33) Yeah, Scott, yields up oil obviously has a bid as well.
(42:37) And you know the market for all the strength that was shown getting to new highs and kind of having
(42:42) the the heavyweight to the index push it there.
(42:45) We haven't changed the dynamic which is yields up, oil up means the market is is not going to be
(42:50) very broad.
(42:50) So you have negative breath today.
(42:52) The the non tech parts of the market aren't doing a whole lot.
(42:56) Neither are at critical levels.
(42:57) I wouldn't say either the the yields or or oil, but it it does put things in check.
(43:02) Obviously did a lot of buying last week, especially in some of those some of those names that had
(43:07) been under pressure.
(43:08) To me, the whole story was hyperscalers reengage to the upside and that turns a broadening market
(43:15) but a stock market into one where the index can make progress.
(43:18) Good to have NVIDIA waking up, although it's given back 3% today.
(43:22) But it was quite a week last.
(43:23) Week right exactly and that was definitely part of that story.
(43:26) So you want to still go back to the old mag 7 rubric or or not and this gets back to you know
(43:31) obviously you know it's a long standing thing about you can have a broader market or you can have
(43:34) the S&P 500 make upside progress to your targets.
(43:37) It's hard to get both now it was a broad enough rally but the NASDAQ 100 outperformed the equal
(43:42) weighted S&P by 7 percentage points in seven trading days ending on Friday.
(43:47) That's how you kind of get the the S&P doing what what the bulls wanted to do on.
(43:53) I'll see you this afternoon.
(43:54) Good stuff.
(43:54) That's Mike Santoli.
(43:56) Let's play some options action now.
(43:57) Oliver Renick is the at the SIBO Global Markets in Chicago.
(44:01) What do you see there?
(44:03) Hey Scott, looking at software stocks which are getting quite a bit of love and an otherwise quiet
(44:08) or stuck tape as Mike put it this morning.
(44:11) In the sector ETFIGV traders bought twice as many calls as puts, but the most notable action in the
(44:17) fund is that the most popular directional trade was selling puts.
(44:21) That suggests the sector can follow what we've seen in stock charts like Palantir and Microsoft
(44:27) options.
(44:28) Volume in Palantir is more than double the 30 day average today, as the stock pushes towards year to
(44:33) date highs and the combined premium in Palantir and Microsoft options is nearing a billion dollars
(44:39) on the day.
(44:40) The ratio of calls to puts is 2 to one in Palantir and almost 3 to one in Microsoft.
(44:46) By the way, options volume in the S&P overall is muted this morning after a record-breaking week for
(44:52) call option buying last week.
(44:54) So I think that makes this fairly aggressive bullish action and software even more notable, Scott.
(45:00) All right, Good stuff.
(45:01) Appreciate that Look, Oliver.
(45:02) Thank you.
(45:03) I'll see you this afternoon.
(45:03) Oliver Renick finals after this break.
(45:16) All right, I hope you join me.
(45:17) Closing Bell 3:00.
(45:18) Tony Pascarello, Goldman Sachs, who mentioned his commentary about this bull market.
(45:22) He'll join us this afternoon.
(45:23) Michelle Ross.
(45:24) We'll talk some biotechs.
(45:25) Doug Clinton, Brian Levitt, Stephanie Link.
(45:27) So I hope you'll join me then.
(45:29) See you in a couple hours, Barbara Jim.
(45:31) My favorite energy stock that Joe doesn't own but May is Transocean.
(45:35) OK, 5 bucks.
(45:38) Maybe that's why he doesn't own it.
(45:39) Anastasia.
(45:40) Private markets, I think a lot of bad news are priced in, but earnings are maybe high for portfolio
(45:43) companies.
(45:44) Fundraising.
(45:45) Is strong.
(45:45) We didn't confer on this.
(45:47) It's Blackstone, biggest in private equity market. 16.9 on a roll.
(45:51) Twilio.
(45:52) OK.
(45:52) Do you like that one?
(45:54) That was funny.
(45:54) I'll see it.
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