Title: The Market Bull Run Continues: The Committee's Next Move 8/11/26
Show: CNBC Halftime Report (podcast of the live noon ET show)
Host: Scott Wapner + Investment Committee (members named in the transcript intro)
Date: 2026-08-11 (Tuesday)
URL: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0jKaZErk1Ss86E20mPdWiR
Length: ~44:08
Note: Spotify auto-generated transcript (accuracy may vary); (mm:ss) cues from Spotify transcript sections.

(0:00) I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour
(0:07) of the trading day.
(0:08) We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern.
(0:11) Listen in, Carl.
(0:17) Thank you.
(0:17) Welcome to the halftime report.
(0:18) I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour of the state of the markets.
(0:21) As investors wait on tomorrow's CPI print, we discuss, we debate with the investment Committee.
(0:28) Bullishness seemingly abounds on the street.
(0:31) Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Brian Belsky, Rob Cechin and Josh Brown take you to the
(0:36) markets and show you exactly what we're doing as we come on the air.
(0:40) This looks like a wait and see tape to me.
(0:42) You're not really doing a whole lot.
(0:44) Yields are a little lower, oils off the highs.
(0:48) The story though, to me is the bullishness on the street.
(0:50) Targets go up.
(0:52) Earnings estimates keep going up.
(0:54) I want you to listen to Goldman's global head of hedge fund coverage, Tony Pascarello with me on
(0:59) Closing Bell on why he's so positive and why so many are.
(1:04) I think the foundation of the market is solid.
(1:06) Why do I say that if the economy's proven again to be very durable, running around trend earnings
(1:11) growth has been superb.
(1:13) I think the flow of funds is still very favorable, particularly in the month of August.
(1:17) And then we have a trillion dollars of AI CapEx working its way through the system.
(1:22) Those are just a few, Josh, of many reasons why, as I said, bullishness abounds, targets go up,
(1:27) optimism continues to rise.
(1:31) Yeah, that's right.
(1:32) And I think part of the optimism is just this a function of how far through earnings season we now
(1:39) are.
(1:40) We've basically heard from almost all of the most important growth, earnings growth stories.
(1:48) And then we're just getting such a panoramic virtuous cycle.
(1:54) It's everywhere you look is we beat, we're raising, we're raising the lower end of the forecast,
(2:00) etcetera, etcetera.
(2:01) So we're through 80% of the S&P 500 by market cap.
(2:06) Like we we've got almost anything.
(2:08) I know Nvidia's still out there, but if you take the actual and then you blend that with what we're
(2:14) still expecting.
(2:15) So these are still estimates.
(2:16) Even if you pull tech out, you're looking at 28.3% earnings growth.
(2:22) If you add tech back, it's 32%.
(2:24) It's outrageous.
(2:25) The net income margin has been revised up during the course of this season to 15.6% from 15.
(2:33) So margin is ahead of expectation.
(2:36) Then you look at sales growth and that's better, 15.2%.
(2:40) That's 300 plus basis points above what was expected as recently as two months ago, 10 out of 11
(2:48) sectors were getting profit growth.
(2:50) So a lot of the narratives about it's all all AI or it's so narrow, it's concentrated, throw them
(2:56) all in the garbage, their money losing narratives.
(2:58) The reality is corporate America, the current management of companies in every sector, look at what
(3:05) they've had thrown at them over the last five or so years, whether we're talking about record
(3:10) inflation spike or we're talking about the pandemic itself and all the difficulty in hiring people
(3:16) and then the tariff stuff.
(3:18) These are like absolute warriors, the people running these companies.
(3:22) And they just continue to find more and more and more earnings growth, more margin, more upside to
(3:29) estimates.
(3:30) And in that environment, is 20 times earnings cheap?
(3:34) No, but why would it be less?
(3:36) Why would the multiple on this particular crop of companies be 16 times earnings because it was in
(3:43) 1994.
(3:45) It makes no sense.
(3:45) These companies are, it's the Michael Jordan of every sector.
(3:48) So I think that's what people are reacting to.
(3:52) And there are great stories everywhere I look.
(3:54) So Joe, you know again highlighting the the important words from Tony economy, durable earnings
(4:01) growth, superb flow of funds, favorable trillion dollars of CapEx.
(4:07) 5th point, not on that list and I agree with the first four points, resiliency, we've really stress
(4:14) tested this market, this bull market this year, haven't we?
(4:17) Rising, we did talk about that too, by the way, rising deals, you know, the, the deleveraging to the
(4:22) cleaner, the cleaner positioning, right?
(4:24) All of it in total is, you know, frankly why you know, elevated oil prices or yields that are still
(4:30) a bit elevated aren't enough to derail the market because the other stories are just too good.
(4:35) So I think the question becomes what becomes your indicator to alert you that potentially there
(4:41) might be trouble ahead.
(4:43) I continue to watch the S&P equal weight.
(4:46) I think that's a very important indicator.
(4:48) I'm also watching the US dollar, but more most importantly, the equal weight and the equal weight is
(4:52) hanging in there, Scott, we're seeing.
(4:53) In there didn't we had a we had a new high on the equal weight on Friday.
(4:56) We, we did and it's carrying forward today, even with oil prices moving higher.
(5:01) So I think that's validating everything that Tony has said and Josh has said and everything that
(5:06) we've been emphasizing over the last several days.
(5:09) You have to maintain your position, which is a bullish 1 until you are greeted with some form of an
(5:15) indicator doesn't.
(5:17) Look like that is around the corner.
(5:20) I mean, who knows what's around the corner?
(5:22) Belsky.
(5:23) But Scott Rubner of Citadel sums it up, I think, as well as anybody else.
(5:27) And very simply, companies are not simply beating elevated expectations, they're driving the
(5:33) steepest earnings revision path since at least 2000.
(5:38) That's true.
(5:39) There's a sixth thing going on.
(5:40) It's called the.
(5:41) Yeah, but bull ever people are still doubting this.
(5:44) After all of this, there's still an amount of skepticism.
(5:47) Every time the market goes up, you have an amount of people trying to guess and when the next
(5:51) correction is.
(5:52) How about let's let's sit back and really enjoy what's happening.
(5:55) The revision story has been amazing as someone that's been looking at revisions for a long, long
(6:00) time.
(6:00) If you take a look at FY2 versus FY1 numbers and how they continue to go up in just the second
(6:05) quarter earnings, Scott, and how they how they just blew away expectations and numbers continue to
(6:10) go up from here because companies are efficient in their earnings growth and how they're valued, how
(6:16) they're operating the business in terms of return on equity or return on capital.
(6:19) And the debt to equity is down dramatically across most sectors.
(6:22) So that's why I think this is going to continue.
(6:25) And the.
(6:25) Yeah, but bulls are.
(6:27) Yeah, but.
(6:28) Yeah, but earnings are earnings are a bubble.
(6:31) Yeah, but.
(6:31) We're an AI bubble.
(6:33) The feds get a misstep.
(6:35) You know, the yields are spiking today, so let's sell.
(6:38) I mean, that's not investing.
(6:39) What?
(6:40) About you Robbie, how do you how do you feel about this this market you I, I, I'm guessing that you
(6:45) probably agree with what many of the bulls are saying I mean sentiment indicators are are so off the
(6:50) charts at this point is there any concern in your mind about that the fact that when I do go down
(6:56) the list, it's bullish, bullish bullish bullish well.
(7:00) That's a that's a reason when everybody gets on the same side of the boat, you're vulnerable to a
(7:04) surprise.
(7:05) But I don't think that's going to happen.
(7:07) To be candid with you, we're strong, earnings are strong, they're broadening, they're not stretched.
(7:12) Let me put some numbers to this. 15% in the second quarter is the fastest revenue growth since 21,
(7:20) fastest since 21, 88% beat rate record.
(7:25) PE is down.
(7:26) And here's the thing that that that I think the yeah, Butts need to hear.
(7:30) Institutional positioning is in the 37th percentile.
(7:34) It is not stretched not even a bit, which is going to draw people in The retail positioning.
(7:40) If you look at some of the Goldman did, I think it is a little stretched.
(7:43) Retail investors feel a little more in than institutional investors, but we're all hanging on the
(7:49) number of stories that we talked about, some of which should cause us worries.
(7:53) But markets tend to climb these walls of worry with the slow removal of negatives.
(7:58) And I think that's going to be what draws institutional positioning back in and maybe pushes us
(8:04) towards 8000 absent a bolt like a hot inflation.
(8:07) I mean that's that's where many of the targets are now beginning again 8000 and and above.
(8:13) And we do get the CPI tomorrow morning and there's obviously a lot riding on it.
(8:19) A, you know, a cooler read sort of takes the Fed off the off the hook and sort of validates the
(8:24) let's wait and see ideas.
(8:26) A hot number puts the pressure on like you talked about in the last news conference, the chair did.
(8:35) We have no tolerance for inflation being above target.
(8:38) But they didn't do anything about it at that meeting.
(8:41) So if you get a hot read tomorrow, are they under more pressure to do something about it in
(8:46) September?
(8:46) You still got to get through Jackson Hole too.
(8:48) But the market, this just feels to me like a wait and see market for this number.
(8:52) It did yesterday.
(8:53) It does a bit today and then we get the we get the prize in the morning.
(8:58) I, I think you're, you're spot on, but let's, let's play the other side of this for a second.
(9:02) Let's say inflation comes out and it's much hotter than anticipated and you have to begin to price
(9:08) in that there will be a rate hike.
(9:10) Let's play the bearish.
(9:11) Argument.
(9:11) We're 5050 right now, by the way, I.
(9:13) Think so.
(9:13) Let's say, let's say that jumps.
(9:15) Let's say it goes 7580% towards a a rate hike.
(9:19) Let's play the bearish argument for one second.
(9:21) Let's say they are right, we are all missing something.
(9:24) What do you think the return on that bearishness ultimately is going to be 5?
(9:28) Percent.
(9:29) 10% to the downside and you're telling me I'm going to be fast enough to know when everyone's going
(9:34) to rush in and buy the dip?
(9:35) See the You mean if they?
(9:37) Do hike or if or if expectations they hike go up.
(9:40) Let's say they hike.
(9:41) You get your reasoning, if it's even.
(9:43) Funnier than that.
(9:44) You get that?
(9:44) And let's say the market goes down, OK, play that along for a second.
(9:47) It just depends.
(9:48) There are some on the Fed, by the way, voting members like Hammock, who say one hike is not enough.
(9:53) OK.
(9:54) So let's say now we're into the process of multiple hikes.
(9:57) What I'm trying to point out is I actually think your return on being bearish is not that strong.
(10:04) I think you're looking at maybe 5 to 10% down and then you have to be fast enough to get back in
(10:09) because the dip buyers will return.
(10:11) Once again, to be bearish here, you have to believe the setup looks something like it did in prior
(10:17) instances where the market goes down greater than 20% and stays there.
(10:21) And I don't see any fundamental evidence for that, even in fact understanding that the Fed might
(10:26) start hiking.
(10:27) Rates it's not like you have to worry about the AI story running out of gas any anytime soon, Josh
(10:34) right.
(10:34) I mean, didn't we get more evidence of that yesterday afternoon in that extraordinary event on this
(10:40) network with Jensen Wong and then the the the heads of those six firms that are going to partner
(10:47) with NVIDIA to raise $500 billion in 3rd party capital.
(10:51) Just to get you up to speed everybody on what exactly this is about, Take a look at at what we put
(10:57) together just so you clearly understand what this is.
(11:00) So they're going to partner with financial firms to raise $500 billion in 3rd party capital.
(11:05) They've signed MO us with Goldman, Apollo, Blackstone, Brookfield, KKR and Black Rock.
(11:10) The deals going to help Nvidia's customers finance the cost of compute the financial terms not
(11:16) disclosed, but the street seems to be more positive than not on it.
(11:22) On the idea of what what is both revenue sharing alleviating circularity concerns.
(11:30) I'm quoting from some of the notes that are out there today that are reiterating the stock at an
(11:34) overweight it.
(11:36) It seems as though that this has taken a little bit of the risk out of the equation.
(11:42) However you judge it, you have the stock.
(11:44) What do you think?
(11:47) Well, I think so.
(11:50) Of all the people in this world that you could choose to Contra and bet against, you want to bet
(11:56) against Jensen Wang?
(11:57) OK, I don't.
(11:59) You definitely are.
(11:59) Are are welcome to because he looks at his stock price.
(12:04) It goes nowhere for a year, right?
(12:06) He's got the best performing stock of the prior decade.
(12:09) Why isn't the stock going up?
(12:10) Why are we multiple contracting?
(12:12) Well, Sir, there's talk on the other coast in in New York and Boston.
(12:18) They're worried about circular financing.
(12:20) They think you're Cisco basically giving money to all the competitive local exchange carriers in
(12:26) 1999 to buy Cisco routers with your money.
(12:31) And then you get to book it as revenue and they think that you're running the same playbook.
(12:35) He says, oh, OK, But we also know the world is structurally short compute and probably will be for
(12:42) at least the next five years.
(12:44) What if we can socialize that risk and that upside a little bit and bring in 3rd party people who
(12:50) just want to bet on the compute demand itself having a value?
(12:54) Can we do that?
(12:55) And of course, we know that there's trillions of dollars in dry powder between private credit,
(13:02) private equity, There's a whole wealth management world of which I'm the avatar.
(13:07) Everybody's looking for new products to bring their clients that have a yield attached to them.
(13:12) Let's let's build a bridge between what Wall Street is looking for, which is more stuff to invest in
(13:18) with a yield that we feel good about and with what Silicon Valley needs, which is spreading out the
(13:25) risk a little bit and not having to have Amazon and Google do a debt offering every month.
(13:30) This is like the best of both worlds.
(13:32) I don't know that it takes the circular risk talk off the table, but it should at least push it back
(13:40) further from the conversation if we think that there's a lot of demand directly to invest in
(13:45) compute.
(13:46) Well, it's a new it's a new story now.
(13:49) And that story is, wow, the ecosystem might have another 10 million new check writers all of a
(13:56) sudden.
(13:56) And I think it's brilliant.
(13:58) I'm not saying I'll invest myself, but I think it's a brilliant move by NVIDIA to engage the people
(14:04) that actually represent the investor class.
(14:07) And you you agree that takes a.
(14:10) Little bit of the risk.
(14:12) 100% they they.
(14:13) Off their balance sheet.
(14:14) They kept their own exposure at 25%.
(14:17) How does that not de risk the name?
(14:19) In addition, they've kind of said to the market, compute is now an investable infrastructure asset,
(14:28) It's securing financing because of your wildest imagination there, especially with the partners that
(14:34) are in this group, which you know, many critics would say they're talking their own book, right?
(14:38) They need to, they need to do this.
(14:40) However, I do think it sets the table for a broadened customer base too, with customers that might
(14:47) have had some financial concerns as it relates to the financing of their AI build out.
(14:51) This is this is a win.
(14:53) I think it's a win win for both.
(14:55) I think for NVIDIA you no longer have to question if they are going to have to cut pricing on GPU
(15:00) that's that's no longer an issue.
(15:02) And for the consortium it's a home run.
(15:04) The getting the compute is the collateral for the debt.
(15:07) Why wouldn't you want that?
(15:09) I think this is accelerates what ultimately will happen which will be in the next 5 years one of the
(15:15) largest futures market in the world will be oil and it will be compute you will see.
(15:21) Price of commute compute though, if it commoditizes, that's obviously one of the fears that that is
(15:26) out there, the decreasing price of compute.
(15:29) See you're buying an annuity street.
(15:31) I'm not saying that's happening, Joe.
(15:33) I'm just saying that that is a risk.
(15:35) I disagree with you.
(15:35) I actually think if you see a futures market and you have the transparency, I think that creates an
(15:42) even better environment for everyone, in particular the consortium themselves, which will have the
(15:48) hedging ability against the compute that they are getting as collateral against the debt.
(15:53) I think it's ultimately a good thing.
(15:55) I agree with you.
(15:55) Just overall 30,000 feet.
(15:57) This is a win win for all.
(15:58) Let's talk about Apple for a minute.
(16:00) The stock's red again, and they're pushing back today on that downgrade that the stock got
(16:05) yesterday.
(16:05) I think it was underperformed.
(16:08) They say they're still planning to offer a glass centric overhaul the iPhone for the 20th
(16:14) anniversary of that device.
(16:16) That's according to a published report.
(16:18) The price target did get cut though.
(16:20) Belsky 340 from 3:50 at loop.
(16:23) They do reiterate by so this is a stock guys, if you do me a favor and just back it up for a minute
(16:29) like a little bit a little bit longer just so you see the run up.
(16:33) Thank you that you see the run up into earnings and then you know it.
(16:38) It looks like it hit a near term peak at at least for now.
(16:41) I mean, look.
(16:42) At July alone and also to remember this is a stock that's been underperforming for a while and all
(16:47) of a sudden it came back on again.
(16:48) And so I think this is clearly just AI think this is a dip action and I don't think there's any kind
(16:52) of fundamental anything wrong with this.
(16:54) They're going to kill it in the fourth quarter in terms of their new products and it's one of our
(16:58) largest positions.
(16:58) So we think you can't bet against Apple.
(17:00) You just absolutely cannot.
(17:02) I think the bearishness builds once again. 56% of the analyst community have a buy rating on it.
(17:07) That's very low relative to the other trillion dollar companies. 32912 month price target and now
(17:14) you have 6 actual sell ratings on Apple.
(17:17) That's the first time you've seen this since 2020.
(17:20) So I agree with you in the interim, this is a sideways to lower trading action.
(17:26) But I think longer term, the best positioning is to be long because I think it moves towards Josh's
(17:32) 400 target.
(17:33) I think it's certainly tough to be underweight.
(17:35) We reduced it on the show in late July because it became such an outsized position because of the
(17:40) relative performance.
(17:41) And this is healthy fundamentals being offset by a really rich valuation.
(17:46) They're re rated a bit.
(17:47) I'm glad that we trimmed, however we're still very long in the stock.
(17:52) So what about Alphabet hasn't traded well relative to the others lately?
(17:56) Belsky, what's up with that?
(17:57) It gets reiterated today at Goldman Sachs.
(17:59) The target's 435.
(18:02) You know, there's concern over the rain drain reorg and Goldman's talking about that today.
(18:07) The commentary around it, the capital raising debt and equity all are sort of overhangs.
(18:14) How do you view all that?
(18:16) No, we think they're in the penalty box here a little bit near term because of the reorg, because of
(18:20) where they're spending money.
(18:20) But we still believe that with respect to how they're going to monetize AI is, is a proven they've
(18:26) they've proven that they can monetize what they run inside the company just like Microsoft.
(18:31) And so I think this pullback is a great opportunity for longer term investors to continue to buy the
(18:36) stock.
(18:36) We think it's one of the five stocks in the US should absolutely, positively own and.
(18:40) It's important portfolio businesses.
(18:43) It's not just one business.
(18:45) They lead in cloud, they lead AI models, YouTube TV way MO.
(18:50) It is a diversified business.
(18:53) So the other story that we're following today is a report that Anthropic is trying to shore up
(18:58) confidence from the investor base ahead of their coming IPO, whenever that may be, perhaps as early
(19:06) as this fall.
(19:07) Kate Rooney is following that story, following the money as well for us and joins us from our Bureau
(19:11) 1 market in San Francisco.
(19:13) Hi.
(19:14) Scott.
(19:14) So that does align in some parts from what I'm hearing from sources out here.
(19:17) Anthropic's IPO, according to sources, could be as soon as October.
(19:21) And I'm hearing that the company has been meeting with bankers as part of that entire process.
(19:25) But the Wall Street Journal with some new details about what's going down in those meetings.
(19:29) Anthropic has reportedly been offering assurances about its growth rate during all of that has been
(19:34) also fielding questions according to this report about the company's growth rate and revenue run
(19:39) rate amid some of the cheaper systems coming out of China.
(19:42) These open source models journal reporting investors have been pressing Anthropic executives on all
(19:47) of these topics in these pre IPO meetings.
(19:49) And then what it may mean as I mentioned for that revenue run rate that has been ramping at an
(19:55) unbelievable level.
(19:56) They last topped $47 billion.
(19:58) No comment from Anthropic, but they have publicly talked about the value of these more expensive
(20:03) models that they offer and then the.
(20:04) Cost per task, the essentially the value you get for spending more.
(20:08) So that has been their defense around this.
(20:09) The company has filed, we should say confidentially to go public.
(20:12) We still have not seen those numbers, Scott and the S1 which will flip closer to that listing date.
(20:18) OK, Yeah, good stuff, Kate.
(20:19) Thank you very much for the update.
(20:21) That's Kate Rooney.
(20:22) Robbie, you, you want in on this when it goes public.
(20:27) You know, we tried to get some in the private markets.
(20:29) This is not one that we were able to participate in.
(20:31) I think I, I will say that these companies have had so much demand, However, the price traction has
(20:39) been you get a big buy up and then they rewrite Meta did that, SpaceX did that.
(20:45) I think a lot of these companies that were waiting for investors to come in, they're a large
(20:50) engineered IP OS with lockups that are unique and markets take a time to find price discovery.
(20:57) So is.
(20:58) That what is that what's happening with SpaceX?
(20:59) It's, it's having to wait, investors are waiting for this time to to pass to get this.
(21:05) Price to separate.
(21:06) I mean, it, it, it did get I think yesterday it was back above the 135 level the offering.
(21:12) It's back below it now.
(21:13) They did get reiterated overweight at Morgan Stanley.
(21:15) And you, you own the name.
(21:16) We do own the name.
(21:17) Again, we own the name because we're locked up.
(21:19) We own it from the, the, the, the private side.
(21:22) So we haven't bought any since the IPOI think, you know, we're, we're very happy with the business.
(21:29) I think what moves SpaceX up is Starlink growth, higher connectivity margins and a disciplined CapEx
(21:36) commentary.
(21:37) I think if you don't get a disciplined CapEx commentary, I mean everybody knows this company can
(21:42) build rockets.
(21:43) They want to make sure they're spending in a way that they can return some profitability back on
(21:49) that spend, get a good ROI all.
(21:51) Right.
(21:51) So let's get some some moves before we take a break.
(21:55) It's from Brian Belsky's got a couple.
(21:58) Yeah.
(21:58) What?
(21:59) Go, go ahead.
(21:59) Yeah.
(22:01) Are you OK?
(22:01) I'm ready.
(22:02) What was that?
(22:02) Hey.
(22:03) He's in the starting blocks.
(22:05) All right.
(22:06) I'm torqued up.
(22:07) Let's go.
(22:07) Obviously.
(22:08) Why don't you just take it away?
(22:10) Just tell.
(22:10) Me a change.
(22:11) Just I'm just going to be quiet now.
(22:12) Go ahead, Go ahead.
(22:13) What do you want to talk about?
(22:14) 1st just go ahead.
(22:16) You may you choose.
(22:17) Qualcomm you.
(22:18) Decided you were going to do your thing?
(22:19) Just go.
(22:19) We sold Qualcomm because from a dividend perspective is in our dividend growth portfolio and we like
(22:26) financials a little bit more.
(22:27) So we we did A1 for one switch from audit to audit Qualcomm and into Truest.
(22:32) You'd like financials better than chips.
(22:34) Yes, we do.
(22:34) And we like the, we like the dividend growth in Truest in particular and the yield relative to
(22:39) Qualcomm.
(22:40) And I think too from from a technology perspective, there are a lot of great technology companies in
(22:44) the dividend growth in the DVY, which is the dividend Aristocrats.
(22:47) But we want to be more concentrated in financials with the higher yield and the better dividend
(22:52) growth.
(22:53) What I thought here third then.
(22:56) 5th, 3rd because we're up, we're up 40% of the position.
(22:58) Yeah, if you like financials.
(23:00) Yeah, but we want to tighten we already, we're already 32% financials in our value portfolio, Joe.
(23:05) So I want to get a little bit bigger in certain names.
(23:07) So we sold our Fifth Third, took a victory lap and added to a couple other.
(23:11) Names good, good trade, but I think you you stay with 5th, 3rd, that's what we're doing.
(23:15) You're going to see the integration of Comerica in the second-half of the year.
(23:19) I think that's going to be beneficial.
(23:20) Stock looks great.
(23:21) Financials.
(23:21) By the way, are going for the 11th consecutive week of gains.
(23:25) That's the longest, Josh, since 89 at least.
(23:29) We'll see whether we can.
(23:30) I mean, it's early in the week obviously, and we got to get through tomorrow with the CPI, but this
(23:35) group's been on a run.
(23:38) I can't think of an area in financials I don't like other than payments which got some weird PayPal
(23:46) related.
(23:46) Will there be consolidation or will there not?
(23:49) Away from that, I like the credit cards.
(23:52) I like the regional banks, which we've talked about spread financials.
(23:57) I like the banking financials.
(23:59) Anything that's even tangential to Wall Street.
(24:03) I'd like the asset managers.
(24:05) I like the money center banks.
(24:07) I'd like the brokers.
(24:08) We've been talking about Robin Hood.
(24:11) We we talked about into active brokers on my list the best stocks in the market.
(24:15) We talked about Citizens, which I'm long CFG, it's it's a cornucopia judge of of stocks that either
(24:25) the profitability is increasing or the charts are running up or in many cases both insurance we
(24:31) talked about Berkshire, JP Morgan made record highs recently.
(24:35) Morgan Stanley looks amazing.
(24:37) I mean, this is like one of the hallmarks of the 2026 bull market is how well almost every financial
(24:45) that matters has been acting and how great the guidance looks.
(24:50) I mean, this is a big one of the most important legs to this tool.
(24:53) Yeah, throw up some private equity names as well, guys, if you could please, because they look great
(24:58) today.
(24:59) Look at all these names.
(25:00) There's the black Stones, Yeah, and maybe some of it has to do with that news that that came out
(25:07) yesterday, but software is trading a lot better.
(25:09) That obviously helps this group, but there's a cycle through some of these names.
(25:14) One of the strongest areas of the market today, Apollo's up 6%, but there's your Black Stones and
(25:19) your KKRS as well.
(25:20) We'll take a break coming up running for cover.
(25:22) One of Brian Belski's retail plays is getting smoke today.
(25:26) We'll find out what he's doing a little bit later.
(25:28) We have Josh Brown's best stocks in the market as well.
(25:36) All right on.
(25:36) Holdings down more than 19%.
(25:39) That's the worst day ever.
(25:41) New 52 week low revenues missed.
(25:45) Not a great guide.
(25:47) You put that with Under Armour getting downgraded.
(25:50) Nike's been a mess.
(25:51) Dick's Sporting Goods hasn't traded well lately.
(25:55) What's going on with this?
(25:56) Well, their net sales were off big because the wholesale segment was very light, very light on the
(26:01) where they make their money and actually where their product is dramatically different than the
(26:06) other companies that you talked about was the apparel.
(26:09) Apparel is up 48% direct to consumer of 26%.
(26:14) That's where they need to really focus.
(26:15) I think the problem is on the wholesaling side.
(26:18) They've got an expensive shoe.
(26:19) Their average shoe is 150 and $180.
(26:22) And so I think that kind of puts them into a very direct segment.
(26:25) But we own it because of the great product that they have in terms of the apparel side of things
(26:30) you.
(26:30) Own you own on holdings for the apparel.
(26:33) Yeah.
(26:33) That's that's where you want.
(26:35) That's that's where I think where they're really going to make the money in the margins and I think
(26:38) they have a better product than those other companies.
(26:41) We've owned the stock for six years.
(26:42) We bought it right before COVID.
(26:44) We bought it for the apparel.
(26:47) I bought it.
(26:47) Well, no, I bought it originally for the shoes, but we're holding it still for the do.
(26:50) I sound skeptical.
(26:52) Yeah.
(26:52) Have you had the apparel?
(26:53) Do you have any of the apparel that's fantastic running stuff.
(26:55) They have really great.
(26:56) They have really great stuff.
(26:57) I'm.
(26:57) Sure they do, but I mean, aren't aren't the shoes, the sneakers, the bread and butter, the business?
(27:02) They are, but in terms of the margin, where they're going to get the margin and how this company's
(27:05) really going to grow in in they're.
(27:07) Charging 150 to $180 for the sneakers and they're not getting the margin, no.
(27:11) They're not getting the margin out of that because they're not getting the sales there.
(27:13) Where the margin is, is in their apparel.
(27:17) What do you think you're snickering over there?
(27:20) I'm laughing at you.
(27:22) Your face is just making me laugh today so.
(27:26) Is there a problem with this?
(27:28) Is there a problem with this area, the area of of retail?
(27:32) Like I said, Under Armour, Nike said Dick's Sporting Goods.
(27:36) Now this Joe.
(27:39) Hello, anybody?
(27:40) No, I'm here.
(27:40) Bueller, anyone?
(27:42) Consumer discretionary is control room anybody Consumer discretionary is incredibly difficult to
(27:49) kind of see long term sustainable momentum trends and I think we're apparel is really the highlight
(27:58) of that because of the fickle nature in the buying intention.
(28:02) And it's my thought also you have seen strength in off price and strength and off price is generally
(28:11) equating to a negative growth environment for apparel.
(28:15) Absolutely, because now I'm going to off price and I am getting your products.
(28:19) You think there's a gigantic trade down?
(28:21) I actually think the upper part of the judge is part of the economy.
(28:25) Off price, Off price has been remarkably strong, OK.
(28:29) And if you're telling me that the trends in traffic and off price are strong, that means that
(28:34) apparel is being discounted for sure.
(28:36) That's why you always want to be with the better price product.
(28:38) You only be the better product and they have the best product in that category, period.
(28:42) It's a way better product than than Under Armour, way better product than than Nike.
(28:46) Nike's got other operational issues that are going to continue.
(28:49) It's too big.
(28:50) Under Armour's a failed company.
(28:51) For the is there, is there apparel competing with those companies or is it competing with Lulu
(28:57) Viori, those companies?
(29:00) Well, Viori is not as athletic intensive as on.
(29:03) Obviously Viori's doing a little bit more casual wearing and things like that.
(29:08) Viori's more along the lines relative to Aloe and Lulu.
(29:13) Lulu is going to a complete reboot as well.
(29:16) But I would say that from it's more of a Nike and Under Armour comparison in terms of the Atlanta
(29:21) side of things.
(29:22) And yes, people have been trading down, but I think you always want to buy the best product and with
(29:26) the best company.
(29:27) And I think longer term, this is going to be a company that is going to do well.
(29:30) Josh, last point.
(29:33) You just don't have to be here.
(29:35) Like if you're if you're a manager and you have some sort of mandate where you have to own a certain
(29:40) amount of retail or apparel stocks, OK, that's one thing. 99% of our viewers have no such mandate.
(29:47) Nobody's every one of these charts looks worse than the last one that you showed.
(29:52) In a market environment like this, why are we even spending 10 seconds?
(29:56) Let's focus on what's working and unless you know something the market doesn't, all of these
(30:02) companies have challenges and there are lots of companies that are firing and all cylinders away
(30:06) from this group.
(30:08) Let's come back to this group someday, not this day.
(30:11) OK.
(30:12) Nasima Modi has the CNBC NEWS UPDATE.
(30:14) Hi there.
(30:15) Hey Scott, I'm here to hear the stories we're watching. 100 firefighters from Mexico are joining
(30:19) crews battling a deadly wildfire in British Columbia.
(30:22) The 60 square mile blaze has killed an 80 year old woman, destroyed homes and forced 20,000 people
(30:28) to evacuate.
(30:29) Canadian police have opened a criminal investigation into the fire's cause.
(30:33) The Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo has now killed more than 2000 people.
(30:37) Officials say it is the fastest growing outbreak on record, reaching that toll nearly three times
(30:42) faster than the deadly 2014 to 2016 epidemic.
(30:45) Health teams warn the virus is still spreading faster than they can contain it and the White House
(30:50) is lifting its ban on TikTok across federal government devices, saying the app no longer poses a
(30:55) national security threat.
(30:57) The reversal follows Tik Tok's January deal transferring control of its US user data and operations
(31:02) to an American LED joint venture.
(31:04) The ban had been in place since 2022.
(31:07) Scott.
(31:09) Seema thanks Seema Modi coming up, Josh Brown's best stocks in the market.
(31:13) He says a textbook breakout is underway in a travel related name.
(31:18) He reveals it next.
(31:39) All right, this textbook breakout that Josh Brown has found in his best stocks in the market is
(31:45) which name?
(31:48) Expedia.
(31:49) So this is one of the names that we've been talking about pretty much all year.
(31:53) It's been on the list of the best stocks in the market.
(31:56) We first talked about it almost a full year ago, September at 2:21.
(32:01) It's up about 47% since.
(32:03) We talked about it again on 12/29, which was 286.
(32:08) So it's about up about 13% from there.
(32:11) And the story is very simple to narrative violation.
(32:14) People looked at the stock this spring and said, yeah, what the hell, throw it in with the sass
(32:19) pocalypse names.
(32:21) But it's not SAS, it's travel.
(32:23) And travel is the very best slice of consumer spending.
(32:27) Q2 revenue grew 14% to 4.3 billion on 34 billion in gross bookings.
(32:34) They are breaking records everywhere you look.
(32:37) The B2B business is in its 20th consecutive quarter of double digit growth.
(32:42) So management just came out, raised full year guidance across the board and they're going to return
(32:49) $900 million in the form of buybacks year to date.
(32:53) This is part of a $5 billion authorization.
(32:56) So they're a flow shrink or two.
(32:58) What we wrote yesterday is this is a textbook breakout with a low volume retest.
(33:02) I guess the retest ended yesterday because today it's off to the races.
(33:06) I think traders should use 290 as their pivot point.
(33:10) Below that level.
(33:11) It's no longer in a short term uptrend.
(33:14) You can walk away from it.
(33:15) I think investors give it a little bit more space.
(33:17) We're looking at 260.
(33:19) That's that area where the 50 day sits.
(33:21) That is a rising 50 day.
(33:23) It's been meaningful in the past.
(33:25) It should be going forward above those levels.
(33:27) I think you want to be long the stock.
(33:30) Okay, well, Belsky, you are.
(33:32) And Joe, you're no longer no longer.
(33:34) So what about you from both of you?
(33:37) Go ahead.
(33:37) Belsky, Brian.
(33:38) We bought Expedia about a year ago on our small midcap portfolio and then we bought it in our value
(33:42) portfolio in March and it was cheaper than bookings.
(33:47) We love this travel space.
(33:48) We've owned Hilton and Marriott for a long time as well.
(33:50) We think travels where people are spending their money.
(33:52) And so we think this stock is better actually fundamentally been broken.
(33:56) Name that you continue to own.
(33:58) I think it's breaking out for sure.
(34:00) In terms of sentiment. 45% of the analyst community has a buy rating on it. 24 right now. 329 is a
(34:07) 12 month price target.
(34:09) The end of July we rebalanced.
(34:11) The earnings came out August 6th.
(34:14) You can make a really strong argument that maybe extending the rebalance another couple of weeks
(34:20) into the S&P earnings season would be beneficial because this is a classic example of yes, in fact
(34:26) it would be.
(34:27) But I mean, if you look at a three month, can I get a three month guys please?
(34:31) They're you're incorporating the price action from the end of July through the last several weeks
(34:37) that you had a significant bump up.
(34:38) So if you pull back where you were sitting at the end of July, you didn't have the intense momentum
(34:43) that you have right now.
(34:44) No, I know.
(34:44) But but from the end of June, it looks like you had a momentum start to pick up again.
(34:51) You went from like around 2:10 to 2:50, let's just call it because I don't know the exact numbers
(34:56) based on the chart we're looking at obviously, but a couple more weeks would have made the
(35:01) difference because you would have gotten a bigger burst into August.
(35:05) So you you may.
(35:05) Have kept it, yeah, you would have because can we pull that chart back to the beginning of the year
(35:09) You'll see the high was in January, so you actually had a deceleration in momentum from January
(35:14) through July.
(35:17) There you go.
(35:17) See that deceleration?
(35:18) Sure.
(35:18) But that?
(35:19) Means that January, but January, February, March, if there's a deceleration, you would have bounced
(35:25) it at their April rebalance, would you have?
(35:28) No, because you're you're also factoring a 12 month momentum score.
(35:31) I know it's it's difficult to keep pulling back these charts, but if you pull back the lens and look
(35:36) at a 12 month score, there we go.
(35:39) See how that looks good?
(35:41) So you're, you're measuring different time frames.
(35:44) I'm sorry if it if it sounds complicated, but you're measuring different time flames.
(35:48) Bottom line is the stock looks great and factoring in what we just saw in the last, let's call it 8
(35:53) trading days, it Josh is right, it's breaking out.
(35:55) I wish we still had it.
(35:56) OK, well, it's up another 3% today.
(35:58) We'll follow that Mike Santoli's next with his midday word.
(36:20) Got some news to get to word of another leadership shake up at Open AI.
(36:24) Our Kate Rooney has these details.
(36:26) What do we know, Kate?
(36:27) Hey Scott, we're just learning that Brad Lightcap, he is one of the longest tenured employees at
(36:32) Open AI, is now leaving.
(36:34) This is according to a social media post.
(36:36) He says he is going on to start something new.
(36:38) It is the latest shake up for Open AI.
(36:40) Lightcap was the former COO.
(36:42) He has been leading special projects and says in this post he joined in 2018.
(36:47) He is also a close confidant of Sam Altman, founder and CEO of Open AI.
(36:51) They work together at Y Combinator.
(36:53) So Brad Lightcap, very much a key executive in the founding and sort of transition throughout the
(36:59) years from what was originally a non profit into a now almost trillion dollar business.
(37:04) He says here that he's been talking about the next horizon and other things in AI so is going on to
(37:11) start something else.
(37:12) Doesn't share any details here.
(37:13) Says he's going to remain at Open AI for the next few weeks, but it is the latest shake up.
(37:17) As I mentioned, we had Fiji Simo, that Head of AGI over there, CEO of its Applications 2 leaving
(37:22) earlier this year.
(37:23) She was the former CEO of Instacart and left due to a chronic illness.
(37:28) But this, of course, comes at a time when this company is looking to go public.
(37:31) And we're seeing very much a shift in the senior management here and power consolidated under Sam
(37:37) Altman, but some of the senior leadership very much moving around here, Scott, ahead of an IPO.
(37:41) So because you mentioned, you know, because of the IPO, which is I think the thing that most people
(37:45) are thinking about as you bring us this news, could we think of this as a surprise then in the
(37:50) timing before the company goes public?
(37:54) So Scott, I think what's been happening behind the scenes and from what I've heard is that there's
(37:59) more power being consolidated under Greg Brockman, who's one of the other Co founders.
(38:04) He's taking over a lot of the leadership role from Fiji Simo who left and this does seem to have
(38:10) been in motion.
(38:11) And you see this with tech companies that mature and grow ahead of an IPO.
(38:16) Some of the original leadership is an always the right group to necessarily take the company public
(38:21) and lead a public company.
(38:22) Unclear what actually happened behind the scenes here.
(38:24) I don't want to say too much Scott without actually knowing the details of his departure, but it
(38:28) could be one of these examples you see in tech where you know he's a young executive, he may not be
(38:33) the right person to lead it.
(38:35) You have names like Sarah Fryer, who was a former CEO.
(38:38) You have Denise Dresser who was the former CEO of SLAC.
(38:41) So you're seeing sort of this more institutional group come in from outside of tech, coming from
(38:46) software versus the original group who really is kind of a start up culture to its core, which I
(38:52) think Brad very much represents, but says he's going to do something else.
(38:55) So we'll see.
(38:56) What's good insight?
(38:57) Yeah, I appreciate that insight, Kate.
(38:59) And the context, that's important, too.
(39:01) Kate Rooney, our senior markets commentator and Overtime Co anchor Michael Santoli is sitting here
(39:06) at Post 9.
(39:08) What's your thought?
(39:09) I mean, I feel like I would if I threw it to you the same way I threw it yesterday minus yields and
(39:13) oil.
(39:14) It would still end with waiting on the CPI.
(39:16) We're waiting on the CPI and in the process digesting the move from last week.
(39:20) I mean, everything that was going on in July where it seemed like there was this very sort of
(39:25) fragile push pull below the surface.
(39:27) We know a lot of it was forced liquidation, these mechanical rotations.
(39:30) And I certainly was one of those out there saying, look, this could actually knock something loose.
(39:35) This could be a little too erratic for the market's own good.
(39:38) That didn't come true, right?
(39:39) We actually got past it.
(39:40) Why we come past it?
(39:41) Hyperscalers rebound.
(39:43) You managed to get the S&P to have this breakout.
(39:46) Now I think if you have a 2% pullback in the S&P, it stays above 7600.
(39:50) You've still preserved the breakout.
(39:51) Nothing major is going on there.
(39:53) You want to, I guess, give us your opinion on what many people are talking about being a cleaner
(39:59) tape now we got through.
(40:02) You know those excesses at least to some degree, not to say there's no, you know, leverage in the
(40:07) system or anything like that, but you did have some important events de grossing, deleveraging and
(40:13) here we find ourselves.
(40:13) It was almost scripted that you had you had a major casualty.
(40:17) You kind of had that as a signal that in fact a lot of that before selling was going on.
(40:22) You have a you know, kind of a sacrifice to the to the market gods is the way you would put it in
(40:27) this hedge fund that blew up.
(40:29) Now that being said, this market does not take its time in re risking.
(40:34) OK, you already look at the five day put call ratio.
(40:36) It is rock bottom.
(40:37) The tactical fast moving players have immediately put back on upside exposure.
(40:42) I don't think that means the whole world is now over long you, you have room for that to, to, to go
(40:48) higher.
(40:48) So I do think it's a better setup.
(40:50) We'll see if if you know if macro permits as you say CPI tomorrow.
(40:54) OK, Good stuff.
(40:55) I'll see you later this afternoon.
(40:56) That's Mike Santoli.
(40:56) And Speaking of options, we'll play options action coming up.
(41:00) Oliver Renick is flagging what he says is the biggest single trade in the options market right now.
(41:06) It's in a name that Joe owns as well.
(41:08) So we'll reveal it and then we'll trade it on the other side of what Oliver's seeing next.
(41:31) All right, let's play options action.
(41:33) Oliver Rennick is at the SIBO Global Markets in Chicago.
(41:37) What do you see there?
(41:40) Something we don't see often, Scott, the single biggest options trade on the entire tape today is in
(41:45) the defense category, A $70 million call trade in RTX that looks like someone doubling down on an
(41:51) existing bullish position.
(41:53) Here's what we saw about 30 minutes after the opening bell.
(41:56) Someone sold just shy of 7000 contracts of Deep in the money 125 strike calls in RTX expiring in
(42:04) mid-december, then purchased the exact same number of the same strike calls, but with.
(42:10) February expiry next year, we can see from the open interest that first trade was a clear closing
(42:15) trade and the second one was a clear.
(42:18) Opening position, this is someone using options as a stock replacement strategy that's likely quite
(42:23) profitable after RT XS rally.
(42:25) And they're rolling this out to get a fresh, clean long position on a stock that's up 20% on the
(42:30) year.
(42:31) RTX volume five times the daily average in options today.
(42:35) All thanks to this one trade, Scott.
(42:37) Well, glad you found that, Oliver.
(42:39) Thank you very much for that.
(42:40) Oliver Rennick, you have RTX?
(42:42) Yes.
(42:42) Significant, significant exposure in the defense industry $1.5 trillion defense budget on the table
(42:48) here.
(42:48) RTX benefiting RTX General Dynamics.
(42:52) They are the two strongest names in the defense industry that we still maintain the exposure to.
(42:57) OK, we'll take a break.
(42:58) We'll come back with the finals on the other side.
(43:10) Josh Brown final trade.
(43:13) Snowflake SNOW.
(43:15) OK, Robbie KLAC.
(43:17) K that.
(43:18) Belsky.
(43:18) Gilead GILD.
(43:20) Airbnb.
(43:20) Wow.
(43:21) You guys did that really well.
(43:23) All right, I'll see.
(43:23) At 3 on the closing bell, the exchange begins.
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