Title: Stocks Rise as Yields Fall: The Committee's Investment Strategy 8/19/26
Show: CNBC Halftime Report (podcast of the live noon ET show)
Host: Scott Wapner + Investment Committee — Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Kevin Simpson, Bryn Talkington
Guest: CNBC's Oliver Renick (Options Action, from the Cboe); reporters Annika Kim Constantino, Kate Rooney,
  Eamon Javers, Frank Holland; Michael Santoli (midday word)
Date: 2026-08-19 (Wednesday)
URL: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5t8qMjqbeVTtAQQEANGQlX
Length: ~46:24
Note: Spotify auto-generated transcript (accuracy may vary). This edition carried NO (mm:ss) cues -- only
  interleaved "Speaker N" diarization labels and chapter headings, so no timestamps are shown anywhere on the
  analysis page. Speakers were mapped from context and relabelled by name: Speaker 1 = Scott Wapner,
  2 = Joe Terranova, 3 = Kevin Simpson (early) / Michael Santoli (midday-word segment), 4 = Kevin Simpson,
  5 = Liz Thomas, 6 = Bryn Talkington, 7 = Annika Kim Constantino (Merck/Moderna) / Kate Rooney
  (OpenAI-Anthropic), 8 = Eamon Javers, 9 = Oliver Renick; the Jamieson Greer soundbite was mis-diarized as
  Speakers 1/4 and is marked [clip]. Chapter headings are kept as == section == markers. Fillers (um/uh) and
  stutters removed; obvious ASR name mangles corrected (Brin->Bryn Talkington, Worsch->Warsh, Ayman
  Chavers->Eamon Javers, Comedy->Comey, Sienna->Ciena, Tom Leak->Tom Lee, SIBO->Cboe, Robin Hood->Robinhood,
  Marmax->Marmaxx, Open Eye->OpenAI, Marvel->Marvell); wording otherwise verbatim.

== Committee Debates Falling Yields and Treasury's Market Impact ==

I'm Scott Wapner, and you're listening to CNBC Halftime Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day.
We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern.
Listen in.
All right, guys, thanks so much.
Welcome to the halftime Report.
I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour.
Falling yields, rising stocks and some very big movers to debate and trade today, which of course we'll do with the investment committee.
Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Kevin Simpson and Bryn Talkington take you to the markets.
Got a pretty good day developing here.
Not super strong, but nonetheless, the moving yields has taken the edge off, there's no doubt about that.
So that's your picture.
There's the 30 year.
We were above 530 yesterday.
So that's the significance of the move after the Treasury said it would double the size of buybacks at the long end, brings it down.
It's given a lift because I think Joe, the market was starting to get to a point where it was a little nervous, I think and certainly paying more attention to the backup at the long end.

[Joe Terranova]
So the spike in global yields the other evening led to a fundamental trigger for what we've seen as a rotation in internal rotation in the market, and it extends today.
Now, the actions from the Treasury, I don't think they're surprising at all.
You and I yesterday, we talked a little about home builders and mortgage rates, and going into a midterm election, do you really want to see mortgage rates rising if you're the party in power?
So not surprising to see the yield curve control that's put into place.
It'll be 60 days early September right up to the midterm election.
That's kind of going to hopefully anchor the long end of the curve we're still seeing today though this rotation continue Capital is coming out of the momentum factor, it's coming out of memory, it's coming out of semiconductors.
And I will say this and I want to use this word in front of the sentence, it is excitingly going into healthcare and continuing to go into energy.
And I really think there are some significant opportunities in both those sectors.

[Scott Wapner]
Let's go to Kevin Simpson.
Look at this guy.
Welcome time machine.
What happened?
New lid, new suit.
Looking great.
You knew that was coming.

[Kevin Simpson]
I left the 80s.

[Scott Wapner]
You, you, you.
You took Steely Dan off the turntable you put Taylor Swift on, and here you are, my friend.

[Kevin Simpson]
I just got ACD player and some Air Jordans.

[Scott Wapner]
The eight track is dead.
It's good to have you back.
Of course you knew that was going to happen.
Come on dude.

[Kevin Simpson]
It was easier than I thought was going.

[Scott Wapner]
To you look great.
We love it.
So the yields stocks you.

[Kevin Simpson]
Very, very important, because this is the advantage of having a Treasury Secretary who's traded the markets.
This is not political.
No disrespect to the likes of Janet Yellen, but you know Robert Rubin, when you have somebody that understands where we were the precipice of these rate moves, exactly like Joe said, you start getting a 10 year at 5%, a 30 year at 5 1/2, you're going to see the institutional quants move out of equities and fixed and into fixed income.
Not because of a bearish call on equities, but just because of pure math.
So the move today was a great move.
Equities are celebrating it.
I think that the thing we need to keep in mind is that no matter what the treasury does or what the Fed does, they can't control the long end of the yield curve.
They can control the short end, Scott, but not the long end.
So All in all, this was a great move today and I applaud them for it you.

== Broad Earnings Growth and Marvell's Custom Chip Deal ==

Know, Liz, even with all of the consternation, I guess about the backup in yields, but the market wasn't getting like overly crazy about it for I think a couple of reasons.
Number one, I think most people started to come to the idea that the backup at the longest and the 30 year was largely due.
I mean there are a variety of reasons, but maybe largely due to the large number of issuance the paper that's like literally flying all over the place to fund the AI build out.
And second, because the earnings story is too compelling.
If you had a different earnings story and you had a much higher market multiple the same time that yields were backing up like they are, I think the market would have a bigger problem.
And the reason we don't is because those conditions don't really exist.

[Liz Thomas]
I think that's fair.
I think it's more about the fact that the 30 year is the one that was concerning and individual investors don't own 30 year Treasuries, so that wasn't pressuring them.
The 30 year is also not where we discount earnings.
We discount earnings with the 10 year usually.
And the 10 year had been kind of stuck in a range.
So if anybody was looking for a level where the treasury was getting uncomfortable, apparently 5.3% on the 30 year was that level.
But what we've gotten right now is let's let's rewind to what happened in 2011 when the Fed did Operation Twist.
What it did at that point was effectively put a floor in for the S&P 500.
Now, we weren't in a downtrend before this happened, but this is a bullish signal, signal for the market and for earnings and the markets reacting in kind to that today.
But there are other implications of it.
So the first of which is that classically this creates A flatter yield curve, right?
The long end comes down.

[Scott Wapner]
Because you had this bear steepening, what they call it, where the where the long end of the curve rises faster than the short end, you get what they call the so-called bear steepening for all those who are playing along wherever you are.

[Liz Thomas]
Sure.
So what it did though, is created a flatter yield curve, which classically is bad for financials.
However, financials have done so well this entire year with a flattening yield curve that I don't think that matters right now.
So I think this is even bullish for financials because of everything else that is going well for financials.
The other implication here that I'm interested in watching for and, and I think I'm sort of on an island by myself on this one, is that I actually think that this could start to create a tug of war between the Treasury and the Fed.
If Kevin Warsh comes out at Jackson Hole and says anything hawkish, the yield curve is going to get confused.
I would expect yields to rise at both the short and the long end in what would be called a bare flattener.
I think the short end would rise faster, but you still have a rise in yield.

[Scott Wapner]
So then he's going to do that.

[Liz Thomas]
He may.

[Scott Wapner]
I don't think he's going.

[Liz Thomas]
To do that, but if he does, then I think we have a tug of war between the two.

[Scott Wapner]
So Bryn, the idea that the reason we're not getting, you know, all hung up with the move in yields, it's where we have our eye on it obviously and today is much needed relief again is because of earnings.
Let me give you a current and you and everybody else a current look at where earnings growth currently stands.
So in total, obviously skewed a bit by what has happened within tech.
We did 51.6 earnings growth in Q2.
Here's what we're expected to do in Q3 — 29 — Q4 — 26 1/2.
And even after that, it's, it's pretty impressive as well.
And if you look sector by sector for what the growth was and what the growth is expected to be, it's it's broad, it's big.
And it's why the targets on Wall Street continue to go up the way they do and why even the strategists who continue to bump their numbers up are less focused on what's happening at the long end of the yield curve and what's happening in the bond market.
They're more fixated on earnings.
And that just looks too good to pass up.
Bryn's like, I totally agree with what you just said.
We'll have her say it herself when we figure out the audio in a minute.
But I guarantee you that's what she's saying.
What do you think?

[Joe Terranova]
I think the message is simple and I agree with your perspective, not to be political here, but the Treasury, the administration, we're going into a midterm election.
The message is to investors.
They pay attention. They're probably watching us right now.
They're paying attention to Treasury yields.
They're going to respond if they think Treasury yields get out of control.
They're paying attention to oil.
Do I think and the last two weeks of October, oil is going to be approaching $90.00 to $100.
No, I absolutely don't.
And I just think that's the message.
So if you have that message, then you're able to see through what appears to be these apparent headwinds and look at the consistent tailwinds of the earnings growth that you're describing and understand that earnings growth is broadening significantly.
The revenue growth, it hit on 11 of 11 sectors in the most recent earnings report and looking forward into the coming quarters you see nothing but a continuation of that type of broad based growth.

[Scott Wapner]
This is, I mean, if nothing else, it's a statement.
Now we have Bryn back.
Isn't she back?
Hi, Bryn.
You want to reiterate what I was telling everybody you were you were going to say.

[Bryn Talkington]
I appreciate you agreeing with me, by the way.
That's always a great way to start the show.
So, so I was saying, which I know you're going to agree with me, if you had that original chart of that 51% earnings growth for Q2, you really need to back out 20% of that because there's like Anthropic, SpaceX, so.

[Scott Wapner]
But 30% but still so, so I think people sort of know that at this point, but are fine strip it out and OK.

[Bryn Talkington]
Right.
And I, and so and so I, we talked about this yesterday, I said this yesterday, that ultimately, as everyone has their hair on fire about rates, is that we saw rates at this level, especially on the 10 year in 2024 and 2025.
And if you did anything with your portfolio, you really regretted that because the rates came down.
And so yes, the level of rates are going to be higher for longer, but I do feel like we're in this trading range, especially on the, on the 10 year.
And so with that strong earnings growth, which you just showed and you and Joe just talked about it across sectors, obviously technology is the biggest contributor.
And within tech, it's really NVIDIA and Micron skewing that even more.
The earnings are outsized.
And so I, I do agree with Ed Yardeni that, you know, the earnings, we have these like outsized earnings right now and it doesn't seem like those are going to fade anytime soon.
But I will say, looking at a year from now, I do think it's the rate of change of earnings.
If that does come down, that's when people are going to start questioning, is this rally long in the tooth?
But that does not seem to be happening anytime soon.

== Strategic Diversification: From IBM to Alphabet's Future ==

Let's talk about some of the major movers that I think certainly deserve our attention today.
We'll begin with Marvell.
That stock is surging and it has been all morning long.
It gives Google Now an option to buy a $12.2 billion stake in a custom chip deal, a market obviously likes this name.
Joe, you own Marvell.
I'll give you the first shot at that.
Stock's up nearly 10% even off the best levels of the day thus far.

[Joe Terranova]
This is consistent to the type of financial arrangements that we've heard with the hyperscalers.
It's very important to have customized chips now existing with Alphabet is a relationship with Broadcom.
Broadcom's down today?
I don't think necessarily Broadcom is down on the concerns that Marvell is going to take market share on the custom chips for the TPUs, tensor processing units.
It's more about in the future if Marvell builds the relationship with Alphabet, do they turn to Marvell, that being Alphabet for silicon purchases that would be detrimental to Broadcom.
So these relationships I think ultimately going to continue.
Marvell needed this stock had a little bit of a pullback recently as you see there towards the end of the June.
It is restarting the momentum.
This is a good deal.
If you look at the deal, the majority of the shares — 59 million shares — 57 million of those are contingent on the relationship and on Alphabet actually delivering with.

[Scott Wapner]
Future purchases.
OK, you bought more alphabet related to this or no?

[Kevin Simpson]
No, completely unrelated to this, Scott, but I do like the diversification that they're doing within their own.
I guess I would call it like a TPU ecosystem because to Joe's point, they've got Broadcom, they've got NVIDIA now, they've got Marvell, and it's just shoring up what they need.
But if you would criticize Alphabet, Google for anything, it's for the massive spend.
But I think what we're seeing now is a little bit more of a discipline and targeted spend.
But we've been building this position out here, I mean completely regardless of this move.
And if anything, I, I, I look at this as a really long term hold for us.
And I think Scott, if you think about it, we basically went from IBM into Alphabet.
It's been taking a few months for us to do it.
We still have a 1% position in IBM, but basically that's what we're doing.

[Scott Wapner]
But I mean, that was a new move from you today too.
So you trimmed IBM.
We're going to do that later, but let's just do it now.
You want to take me through that because I think everybody remembers at this point that massive slide that the stock had after I think they, you know, dropped a bit of a shocker on the street.
It is that related.

[Kevin Simpson]
100% those earnings were so disappointing I couldn't believe it as a shareholder.

[Scott Wapner]
But that was a while ago now.

[Kevin Simpson]
But we started selling, I think it was July 14th maybe.
I mean, it wasn't that.

[Scott Wapner]
Short while, a short while, but no, I mean again.
But you didn't.
You didn't get out of the whole thing then.

[Kevin Simpson]
We didn't dump it because the stock I think was down 25% in one day Maybe we did sell some of it.
It recovered quite a bit.
I love the long term prospects of IBM.
We own this for many years.
The quantum component here is probably the long term Holy Grail for IBM.
I'm I'm sure that we could revisit it and own it again.
But if I'm looking over the next two to three years, I'm really looking at Alphabet and Google as a much better play, more diversified business.
And if you're worried about software and I'm not as worried as other people, that is a little bit of a hanging, something hanging over IBM that you have to be cognized.

[Scott Wapner]
But this tells me, I mean, if so, if you started trimming it after the miss and that you've trimmed more now, you're basically telling our viewers you are slow walking to the exit, so they should I should expect another one of these, if not more pronouncements from you in the not too distant future.

[Kevin Simpson]
Absolutely, because we have 1% left of IBM and that'll happen.
I do everything at a glacier pace, sure.

[Scott Wapner]
But I just want to make sure everybody understands where we're heading.
And that seems obvious to me where we are.

== Merck, Moderna, and Healthcare's AI-Driven Growth Potential ==

OK, so there's that Merck and Moderna huge story today after their personalized cancer vaccine showing promise in a phase three Melanoma trial.
It is a very, very big deal.
It is a very, very important day for the fight against cancer.
Annika Kim Constantino is following this for us.
What more can you tell us on what may end up being one of those historic days we talked about for a while?

[Annika Kim Constantino]
Hey, Scott.
So like you said, this is a great news for both companies.
Moderna's stock has more than doubled today and this is the first ever phase three trial on this personalized cancer vaccine developed by both Moderna and Merck.
Ahead of this data, analysts have called this study a really make or break moment for Moderna because the Street has high expectations for the shots potential across different cancers.
And some analysts say that this trial and Melanoma reinforces that confidence and signals that the shot could become a long term growth driver for Moderna.
So let's look at this data.
This mRNA based shot in combination with Merck's Keytruda met the study's main goal of reducing the risk of Melanoma returning or spreading to other parts of the body compared with Keytruda alone.
And so this is a huge win for both companies.
We're still going to have to watch to see when they actually file for approval of this drug and we have to see the full data.
But it is very promising for both with the drug makers as well as cancer patients today.
Scott.

[Scott Wapner]
Yeah, no doubt about that.
You can certainly see it in the stocks and the way people are talking about this, this big breakthrough.
Annika, thank you so much.
Annika Kim Constantino, we've got ownership here.
Kev, you own Merck.
You literally just bounced this in the most recent rebound.
So let's go with you first.

[Kevin Simpson]
Well, I, I hope that this is a validation of an entirely new way to tackle cancer.
And if you think of it from a Merck holders perspective or perspective, the Keytruda, which I think is coming off patent in 2028, it could be extended now for these other uses.
So I, I think this is just a huge day for society if this is, you know, even half close to what we're hoping.
And if you're a short seller of Moderna, today's not the best day for your book.

[Scott Wapner]
That's for sure so again getting you know you got out of it I.

[Joe Terranova]
Mean look, I'm emphasizing the forced the feeling that we all have we this is hopefully a monumental day for healthcare and for society and that we're building momentum here as it relates to immunotherapy and it kind of stimulates some bullish sentiment in the healthcare community itself as it relates to the sale of Merck.
And Kevin, I think you would agree the revenue growth was the challenge.
It, it wasn't from a momentum score at all.
The momentum score was very strong for Merck at the end of July, but over the last three years, you're talking about low single digit revenue growth for this company.
And that's the reason that it fell out.
Overall, there is a lot to be excited about as it relates to healthcare right now.
Keep in mind one thing Merck and I, I guess I'll just maybe have you respond to this.
It is from a valuation perspective rich on a historical basis.
So you're looking at Merck trading at nearly 55 times.
That's something generally you don't see that company doing.
That's a that's, that's a hefty price to pay.
That's for 3% growth.

[Kevin Simpson]
I mean, that's totally fair.
My thesis on biotech and pharma is kind of holding my nose from evaluation standpoint.
I didn't expect this good news, but I've been looking at these as the next beneficiary of AI to actually come to fruition.
Now that wasn't the case here.
This was mRNA but.

[Scott Wapner]
That's a big bet that people are making.
And as you mentioned that keep that guys, please put that back up.
Thank you.
That to me is the epitome of being an investor in this area, whether it's Moderna itself or a high promise biotech name that is trying to be on the next frontier of drug development and, and what have you.
The willingness to walk on straight lines for a while in hopes of a big payoff like you're getting today, because that's often how the biotech trade looks.

[Kevin Simpson]
It feels like the 90s.

[Scott Wapner]
You wait, you wait, you wait, you hope, and then you get a day like today.
And it validates the great weight, even though periods of time like we see on that chart from the beginning of the year until the beginning of the summer can be a frustrating constant of not much, at least in terms of stock performance, right?

[Kevin Simpson]
I couldn't have said it more eloquently.
It's perfect.

[Joe Terranova]
So I think the perfect example of that is what we've witnessed with Eli Lilly over the last five years in the GLP 1.
You know, think about it Eli Lilly, if we could show a five year chart, it's up about close to 400%.
There we go, three, 371%.
And that really built in 2023 when we began to see the introduction, the utilization, the engagement and the success rate on it.
What follows after that is it's, it's not just this momentary move higher.
Now your expectation is the revenue growth is consistently going to build in the coming quarters.
And that's what we've watched with Eli Lilly as I think it's trading at an all time high today.
We talked about it yesterday in final trades.

[Kevin Simpson]
Lilly and Merck have been backfilling with acquisitions, even Amgen with Horizon Therapeutics.

[Joe Terranova]
The majority of that move with Lilly is.

[Kevin Simpson]
A thousand, 1000%.
But someday that moves on and you need to have something behind it.

[Scott Wapner]
I mean, remember Revolution Medicines too, right, guys?
Can you just try and put that chart up as fast as you can and the last year I guess is more representative of what the stock has done.
I think that's a pretty good look.
Thank you for that.
Remember, they had that incredible pancreatic cancer breakthrough which changed the trajectory of that name.
Like, you know, people who invest heavily in the space, like Michelle Ross of Stempoint Capital, who comes on it at 3:00, often talks about it.
It's the hope, the hope, the hope and the payoff.
And that's what the big bet ends up being in, in healthcare and especially in the biotech names like that one, which took off.
It's been an incredible year for cancer breakthroughs.
Yep.

[Liz Thomas]
I've been bullish on healthcare this all year, this whole year and I've ridden that straight line across and, and looked like an idiot probably most of the time.
But now it's finally working.
And if you remember what happened at the end of last year when we had a rotation out of Mag 7 out of the technology names, healthcare was the big beneficiary, particularly biotech stocks, but it didn't really stick.
This time it's sticking because now we have optimism.
We have market movement upward both in technology and in healthcare and this rotation back into the healthcare has been much more stable and durable.
I completely agree with Kevin.
I think Healthcare is one of the next biggest beneficiaries of AI.
But the cost of AI has to come down first because remember the mechanics of our healthcare businesses work.
They don't have as much cash laying around to spend on technology innovation.
So it's going to take a little while, but this is a sector that you get paid to wait for.
And I think if you don't have a position in it right now, it is not too late and make sure that you have a position going.

== TJX Earnings and OpenAI vs. Anthropic Profitability ==

Forward, it's surging today.
Let's take a look at that name.
We don't have direct ownership today, but it does.
There's the nice move, almost 17%.
It does bring us to TJX, which reported as well.
The guide wasn't great.
I think the stock is pretty representative of that, the comps.
Let's see TJX.
Thank you guys.
TJX comps were 4% again guide not great.
They're going to open more stores.
I don't think the street loves that.
You sold covered calls today, right?
Or you know, yesterday, today.

[Kevin Simpson]
Right at the close yesterday before the earnings report today, we wanted to hedge half the position, so I sold a — Bryn, you'll love this — a 152 1/2 covered call.
So it was pretty tight, 1% out of the money or so.
But I thought the earnings were going to be good.
And Scott, I did think they were good.
What the Street probably didn't like was the third quarter guide because you're right, that was a little disappointing.
But they didn't, they didn't bring their guy down for the full year.
The numbers were decent.
Maybe the Marshalls and the TJ Maxx store sales were a little bit light, but HomeGoods was great, International was great.
And this was a little bit I think maybe of sell the news.
So if you were to annualize this covered call out, which you can't really do in, in real life, but the math works so that it was a 600% annualized premium on this covered call that expires on Friday.
It's just a fun trade, I think.

[Joe Terranova]
Go quick.
No, that's the challenge for what we saw today, 60% of the business is Marmaxx, TJ yeah, yeah.
And Marshalls and you can't miss there.
You can't have comp sales come in light.
That's the challenge.
That's been the strength of the business.
That's been the story we've been all telling for the last several years.

[Scott Wapner]
Let's talk about OpenAI and Anthropic because there seemingly has been news to discuss every day.
And I think the, if you want to use the word, the disparity between the way that the street or investors are starting to view these, these names.
OpenAI has been lately in the news about top names leaving.
The Wall Street Journal was reporting today that company is telling investors it's Q2 sales showed only tepid growth compared with Anthropic.
So that's the one story that's out there.
Kate Rooney joins us now, though it's it's worth noting here and, and Jim Cramer did this morning that we're talking about the end of June here we are in the middle of August that according to Jim and his sources, things have improved since then.
So just as we look at 13 FS with some degree of or 13DS or whatever with some degree of skepticism because they're backward looking, maybe this is as well, though it won't do anything right to quell the conversation that seems to be getting a little louder around these two companies, will it?

[Kate Rooney]
It's a great point, Scott.
I'll bring you some of the numbers that Jim mentioned and it's a, it is a good point that some of these numbers are backwards looking, but these are private companies.
So any sort of window we get into the numbers tends to get a ton of attention, especially given how important OpenAI is in the broader AI build out.
It's connected to so many public companies.
But the latest, as you mentioned, OpenAI reportedly seen deeper losses in the second quarter.
I think that's the thing that's really getting the most attention here, Scott, Wall Street Journal out with some of these numbers overnight.
The one that's stands out is operating margins.
So losses, according to this report, sank further into the red.
Operating loss grew to $12.3 billion in the quarter.
That grew from the first quarter.
It was about $9 billion in terms of the loss in Q1, according to the Journal here, losses did also outpace revenue.
Revenue growth for that quarter, just around 7 billion, just under 7 billion.
That again is for those three months that ended in June and it was up about 18% from the first quarter.
Again, this is according to the Journal.
No comment from OpenAI on this, but as Jim pointed out earlier, we have reported on some of the more recent July numbers and Greg Brockman, the President of this company actually confirmed that on air this morning.
We had reported that last week that OpenAI saw 20% revenue growth in July, 32% growth in enterprise, but it also doesn't speak to profitability.
And that's the thing that's really getting attention.
And what is extra tough here for OpenAI is that they are now being directly compared to Anthropic as both of these companies are now on file to go public with the SEC.
Anthropic from what we have been hearing just has the better margin profile.
I did report earlier this week Anthropic was profitable at least on a EBITDA basis.
It brought in 11 1/2 billion dollars in the quarter according to sources I've spoken to.
We have also reported some of the recent annualized revenue for these companies.
I have heard from sources OpenAI is around 40 billion.
Anthropic just ramped up to $65 billion.
We also don't know if these are apples to apples.
Again, they're not public companies.
So the accounting can differ slightly, Scott, but there's going to be a lot of attention on these S ones.

[Scott Wapner]
Yeah, well, can't wait till they actually go public so we actually have a less opaque.

[Kate Rooney]
View of.

[Scott Wapner]
The world, Kate.
Thanks.
It's Kate Rooney.

== Diplomatic Rhetoric and Social Media in Trade Negotiations ==

How about breaking news out of Washington?
Eamon Javers has that for us.
Eamon, what do we know?

[Eamon Javers]
Yeah, Scott, we've been monitoring this meeting over at the US Trade Representative's office between the US and Canadian sides in the wake of President Trump's decision last night to pause his threatened Canadian tariffs.
We just heard from Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, emerging from that meeting with some positive rhetoric around the deal making that's happening behind the scenes.
Here's what he had to say.

[clip: Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative]
We feel confident that we've reached an agreement that will not only continue to protect American workers, American jobs, American supply chains, but really strengthen the North American economy and create a situation where North America will continue to be an energy powerhouse, manufacturing powerhouse.

[clip: Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative]
And align on.

[clip: Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative]
Important things like economic security and digital security.
So while we certainly, I think have eliminated some of the irritants that we've had over the past year, we also are taking a strong foot forward on the next steps.

[Eamon Javers]
So Scott, you heard Greer there mention a number of categories, energy security and other things.
What we didn't hear are any of the specifics of the deal that they say they're negotiating behind the scenes.
So we'll have to wait for any kind of readout in terms of what might have actually been agreed to here in that meeting.
One of the things I wanted to flag for you though, is moments after we saw that sort of impromptu presser on the steps between the two trade representatives, we saw a social media post from Mark Carney in Canada.
Here's what he said.
And this is, I think, potentially significant, he says.
Congratulations, Minister LeBlanc and Ambassador Greer for the significant progress in the Canada United States trade negotiations.
Carney here saying Canada entered these discussions with the best overall trade terms.
We are now moving towards an agreement that reinforces that Canadian advantage, including by securing the best terms in each of Canada's most important strategic sectors and providing greater certainty about our future relationships.
So that's the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, saying that Canada has the best terms and this deal will reinforce the Canadian advantage.
Now, the, the political danger of a tweet like that, Scott, in the midst of all of this negotiation, is that, you know, I can tell you that kind of a comment is going to raise eyebrows over at the White House where they're going to say, wait a second, is, is Carney, you know, thumping his chest about Canada having the best terms in this deal even before the deal is done with this kind of, you know, tense negotiation ongoing.
You know, you watch a tweet like that and wonder whether it's going to have any impact on the other side, Scott.

[Scott Wapner]
Oh, I think it will.
We know where to look.
Yeah, we know where to look.
Eamon.
Thanks, Eamon.
We'll be looking all right, and you'll tell us.
Up next, Energy's record run a bullish call out on that sector today.
We'll see if the committee sees more upside ahead.
We're back in 2.

== Latest Headlines: Ebola, Legal Cases, and Politics ==

We are back on halftime report.
I am Frank Holland with the CNBC NEWS UPDATE.
Congo's Ebola outbreak has surpassed 5000 confirmed cases, making it the world's second largest on record.
The country has reported over 2300 deaths, nearly all nearly half of all infections.
The strain has no approved vaccine or treatment.
The World Health Organization warns that the outbreak is spreading faster than response teams can contain it.
Prosecutors and Charlie Kirk's killing argue in a new filing that an engraving on a bullet that says hey, fascist catch shows the conservative activist was targeted over his politics.
That alleged motive, along with the danger posed to thousands attending Kirk's event, could make defendant Tyler Robinson eligible for the death penalty if convicted.
Robinson faces aggravated murder and has yet to enter a plea.
And the Department of Justice is defending its prosecution of former FBI Director James Comey, claiming in a new court filing there's no serious dispute that a social media post from Comey saying 8647 should be viewed as a threat against President Trump.
Comey's lawyers want the charges dismissed, arguing it's a case of vindictive prosecution.

== Market Momentum in Energy, Precious Metals, and Digital Assets ==

Scott, back over to you.
All right, Frank, appreciate that, Frank Holland energy hitting a record high.
The XLE going for its eighth straight positive day.
This is more.
This is more than just elevated oil.
WTI or.

[Joe Terranova]
This is this is refined products, this is diesel, this is the what is known as on NYMEX is the 3-2-1 crack.
So it's basically crude oil to gasoline to diesel.
It's at an all time high.
You've, you've also had and this is affecting Europe, you've had significant damage for Russian refineries as a result of the Ukrainians being very tactical and targeting those refineries.
So.

[Scott Wapner]
Flexing your MERC muscle it there.
Is that what that was?

[Joe Terranova]
Yeah, it's my, my, my memories of, of days long ago.
But I will say this and, and again, I always look at things from the standpoint of positioning and sentiment.
I've been talking Valero, Phillips 66.
Well, the refiners see the best trades.
I'm looking at them from a momentum perspective, sentiment, positioning.
They almost are beginning to look like the Micron type of memory trade at the end of June.
So I don't know that you are like everyone's there already.
Everyone knows what we've been talking about.
You need to own the refiners, especially going into the fall.
But look at positioning, look at sentiment.
It is extremely bullish at this point.
Doesn't mean you leave the energy trade at all.
There's other places that you could be like a Devon, like a FANG.
Those are working as well.
But just keep that in mind with refiners.

[Scott Wapner]
OK, Bryn, so what's your take because you do have a lot of exposure both in and around you in the Houston area and in your portfolio obviously?

[Bryn Talkington]
I've been talking energy, I guess for the past six years.
So it's been a staple of the portfolio.
I think similar to what Liz was saying about healthcare, you know, being that flat line last year, I think XLE was flat in 2025.
And so you had to be there already to enjoy the plus 40% returns unless you just tactically rotated into it.
And so you also have to think through the fundamentals is the E&P companies really aren't drilling that much since this war started.
The SPR is like at an all time low, all time low like having issues.
We're going to have to fill that sometime.
These stocks have a little bit for everyone.
They have growth, they have dividends, they have extra distributions depending on what kind of company you own.
So I still love my energy names, own them in both the public and private markets.
And I think energy right now has a lot to offer a lot of, you know, different type of investors, whether you're for growth or for income.
So I would say stay long because we got to continue to drill.

[Scott Wapner]
We not only talk about oil, we talk about other commodities.
Copper two week low gold is coming off its worst day since the end of July, the last day of July.
Wells Fargo is reiterating its positive outlook for precious metals.
Today they see gold at 4900 for 2026.
Oliver Renick is tracking some of the activity in the options market around the precious metals.
He joins us now from the Cboe in Chicago.
What do you see there?

[Oliver Renick]
OK Scott, today's Treasury buyback announcement is sending big ripples across all macro assets, but in particular gold.
The ETFGLD where calls are outpacing puts nearly three to one on 2 1/2 times the average volume.
The most bought contract in GLD today is the 420 strike call expiring October 16th, which goes for 12 bucks a pop and needs the ETF to jump 5% by expiration.
Now looking at bonds in the TLT call buying is double puts.
The other thing to not be omitted here Scott is Bitcoin.
With additional help from news of favorable regulatory measures today IBIT has a lot of action, arguably the most bullish in a long time.
Almost five times as many calls bought versus puts on 6 times average volume.
Gold price is maybe higher back to May versus Bitcoin back to June, but you can't talk gold with that little Bitcoin, mentions Scott.

[Scott Wapner]
Yeah, of course.
I love the options action.
In fact, we'll come back to you a little bit for another trade that you're seeing.
So we'll give you tease and we'll come back in a moment to Oliver.
Do you like gold?

[Liz Thomas]
I like gold again.
I liked it for a long time.
While it was rising in spring of this year, I stopped understanding what was going on with it.
So I stopped liking it at that point because I couldn't build a good thesis around it.
Now what we're seeing is renewed interest in gold, and I don't think it's just because of some of the other things that we're hearing about.
I don't think it's just because of yields.
I don't think it's just because of what happened with the Treasury.
There's continued geopolitical tension, and a lot of the reason that gold sold off earlier this year was because central banks had to raise cash in order to protect their countries from rises in oil prices.
We still have elevated oil prices, but they're not that problematic.
The ongoing geopolitical tension gives central banks a new reason to, you know, what we want.
We don't want dollars.
We want reserves.
We want to buy gold again.
I think there's new demand for gold, and I think gold can find its way actually back towards 5000 in this cycle.
What?

[Scott Wapner]
Do you think?

[Kevin Simpson]
I hope Liz is right, 5000, I would have taken Wells Fargo's 4900 call.
We owned Agnico Eagle AEM, it was our best performer last year.
Scott stocks still down about 9% over the past six months, and that's on a month 49% run.
So this thing's up almost 50% over the past month.
So I like AEM here and I like gold moving higher, OK?

[Scott Wapner]
We are going to take a break.
We'll come back with our calls of the day as fun strats.
Tom Lee Today he updates his core stock ideas.
List some new names plus one.
He says avoid, in the rundown next.

== Debating Robinhood and Long-Term Retailer Investments ==

All right, welcome back.
So Tom Lee's out today updating his list of top core stock ideas.
So he names Robinhood as a stock to avoid in 2026, and we'll get to that in a minute.
However, he added JPM, JPMorgan, and he added Arista Networks to the core stock ideas list.
You own Arista.
It's on your core, yes, right.

[Joe Terranova]
It's been, it's been a core holding.
It's participating in AI networking along with Cisco and Ciena.
We've had it for quite some time.
It's worked incredibly well in the revenue growth is accelerating.

[Scott Wapner]
OK.
JPM Kev, take that one before Joe because he owns that too, but I won't hear from you.

[Kevin Simpson]
Yeah, I agree with Tom on Arista.
I agree with him on JP Morgan Best of Breed Financial Services.
I think that the awakening of IPOs is not over and this company is 100% deserving of being on his list.

[Scott Wapner]
OK, so do you disagree then?
Was that the punchline?
You disagree with him on Robinhood because you own that.

[Kevin Simpson]
I couldn't disagree more.
Yeah, I mean, I think he got it right on those two, but I'm going to have to push back to Tom.
On Robinhood, revenues were up 32% to a record $1.13 billion.
Earnings per share were up 48%.
They had a record 22 billion of net assets.

[Scott Wapner]
Why does the stock look like that?

[Kevin Simpson]
This is a stock that has a very high valuation and if you look at it and stretch it out a little bit longer, you haven't made much money over the past year.
But if you look at it over the past three years, there's not many stocks we've made more money with.
I just believe in Vlad.
I believe in this company and I think that the next generation of investors are embedded in this eco system you.

[Scott Wapner]
Think the market to correlates it with Bitcoin.

[Kevin Simpson]
Absolutely.
And incorrectly.
Yeah.
I don't think this should trade with Bitcoin.
It did for a long time.
And if you think of the original version of Robinhood, that's what it was.
It was a thing for kids to trade online during COVID.
And it really was the, the, the, the Bitcoin proxy, I think from the stock perspective after it went public.
But I think it's matured to a true financial services company.
They made an acquisition of an RIA.
They owned a custodial platform.
There's a lot more going on here.

[Scott Wapner]
Bryn, you sold it in June.
Robinhood, that is.

[Bryn Talkington]
Yep, Yeah, I, I think it got called away at 1:10.
So I'm out of the position.
I think that it is definitely going to be driven by crypto.
So looks like crypto's finally waking up.
And so tactically, I actually think Robinhood could start also heating up because it is still still driven by that.
So I disagree with Tom also.
I think that if crypto wakes up, this wakes up and therefore the stock would go higher.

[Scott Wapner]
What's so interesting is that Tom Lee is synonymous with crypto.

[Joe Terranova]
Right.

[Scott Wapner]
And he doesn't like Robinhood, so that to me is the most interesting part of this trade.
Now it's Ethereum, I think more so than Bitcoin if you want to make a distinction, but not by much.
Guy walks around wearing pins on his jacket.
I'm.

[Joe Terranova]
Pretty, I'm pretty sure it.

[Kevin Simpson]
Looks like a general.

[Joe Terranova]
I'm pretty sure he had a position in MicroStrategy at some point, so that one seems a little counterintuitive for him not to like Robinhood.
We sold it based on a breakdown in momentum.
I'd rather go to Interactive Brokers all.

[Scott Wapner]
Right.
I was going to bring up one quick thing Lowe's, I bring it up just because they had a muted outlook and we talked housing yesterday, the stock is up; Home Depot though, price target got lowered.
We didn't talk to you because you weren't here yesterday when we did sort of deeper dive on this.
You know, they, they talked about the housing market being frozen yesterday.
So if you own Home Depot, what are you thinking today?
Lowe's didn't exactly tell a different story.

[Kevin Simpson]
How can they with rates where they are, I mean, maybe this little pullback in the long end of the yield curve or the long end of the yield will will help a little bit, but I don't think so.
I just think you have to be here for the longer term.
If we talk about dead money, which we do often with Netflix, and I disagree with that comment, I think Home Depot might be more dead money.
We own it.
We're investors in this and when it turns around, they will be beneficiaries.
The numbers were good.
They exceeded my expectations.
The pro side was fantastic.
They did not lower guide.
I thought it was better than what we saw out of Lowe's today.
But as we all know, Home Depot trades in a much higher multiple than Lowe's does.
So whatever these reactions are, I think they're they're tepid, they're short term.
And if you're an investor in either one, you're looking a lot longer term than the next couple weeks, OK.

[Scott Wapner]
We'll take a break.
We'll come back with Santoli on the other side.

== Market Broadening and Walmart's Upcoming Earnings Report ==

Hi, welcome back.
Senior markets commentator and Overtime Co anchor Michael Santoli is here for his midday word.
OK.
So it's obvious that the Treasury, for one, didn't like what was happening at the long end of the yield curve and they decided to do something about it.
And the market likes the fact that's happening, but also the fact that now it knows that there's maybe a little put there too in terms of what happens with yields.

[Michael Santoli]
It thinks it knows, yeah, where the pain threshold is.
I also think as a messaging gesture, it's very effective because of when it happened.
So you had this saturating bearishness on bonds.
All we were talking about yesterday was yields flying, even though over the course of the day they weren't doing a heck of a lot.
So I think that it worked in the sense of catching the market leaning all the way in One Direction.
Now you have the yield curve flattening out again.
We have to see what the half life of this measure is because it's already undone a lot of what happened at the Reflex in terms of how much yields are down.

[Scott Wapner]
It rolled them all.
It rolled the 30 year back to where it was when Fed chair Warsh was speaking.
What was that now?
More than two weeks?

[Michael Santoli]
517 or some whatever it was, it went.

[Scott Wapner]
To 521 as he was talking.

[Michael Santoli]
So we'll have to see about that.
I mean, I do think the other thing the stock market has done is told you semis have really nothing to do with rates, Okay, They're down 5% this week.
They were down 5% yesterday, They're down a percent and a half today.
It doesn't matter really which way yields are going.
They're caught up in their own dynamic of liquidation, oversold, bounce resistance, whatever is going on there.
The rest of the market is responding to rates because that's when you get a broadening is when you have relief on yields and to a lesser degree oil.
So I think that's what we're seeing right now.
And I think it was a rescue operation as well because past two days you had more than 100 new 52 week lows.
That's not usual with the markets hanging by the highs.
Now you have it broadening out again.
Market is behaving in a pretty secure way.
In other words, this rotation is helping it and supporting it against some of this macro stuff.
I don't think we have much of A valuation sentiment or seasonal cushion, but the market's acting like it can handle a lot.

[Scott Wapner]
We'll see a week from today, right, NVIDIA?
And that's going to be the next big moment.
But our moment together next is at 3:00.
I look forward to that.
Michael.
Thank you.
That's Mike Santoli.
We'll do more options action with Oliver next.
All right, welcome back.
Walmart reports tomorrow before the bell.
Shares have been disappointing.
Oliver Renick's looking at options action.
So where are where are people placing their bets ahead of these numbers and what do you see at the Cboe?

[Oliver Renick]
Yeah, it's an opportunity, Scott here to your point about the stock for this company to get back on track after a big sell off last quarter that was much bigger than what options had anticipated.
Right now, the options action is leaning slightly bearish, but the first thing to look at is the size of the move.
Traders are prepping for a 4.6% swing and that slightly bearish bias is showing up both in volume and premium.
Over half the volume in Walmart options is input trading and the puts are pulling in higher premiums with actually about a 2/3 of the almost $60 million traded in Walmart options on the put side right now.
Three of the top five contracts today and seven of the top 10 trades by dollar amount are either neutral or bearish.
Though for the bulls, there's one thing at the most optimistic trade we saw, it looked like someone closing out a short put position and rolling it up to the 125 strike expiring September 4th in hopes the stock keeps climbing.

[Scott Wapner]
Stuff, Oliver.
Thank you.
I'll see you later this afternoon. 3:00 Oliver Renick Quick comment from you as you own the name right?

[Joe Terranova]
I'll tell you, Walmart has one of been one of the biggest beneficiaries since the pandemic.
They've beaten on revenue every quarter since.
They're also going to benefit from tariff refunds this quarter and next.

[Scott Wapner]
Quarter.
All right, after a break, we'll do finals.

== Final Thoughts and Important Disclaimers ==

You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast.
You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium.
You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific.

[disclaimer]
Inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion.
Such opinions are based upon information the halftime report participants consider reliable.

[disclaimer]
But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.

[disclaimer]
To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/halftime Report Disclaimer.