Title: Trading the Major Week Ahead: The Investment Committee's Strategy 8/21/26 Show: CNBC Halftime Report (podcast of the live noon ET show) Host: Scott Wapner + Investment Committee — Jenny Harrington, Amy Raskin, Rob Sechan, Josh Brown Guest: Michael Santoli (midday word); CNBC's Oliver Renick (Options Action, from the Cboe); Frank Holland (CNBC News Update) Date: 2026-08-21 (Friday) URL: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0AOmn3pfs2n9jKHmoJ1xQx Length: ~44:08 Note: Spotify auto-generated transcript (accuracy may vary); no (mm:ss) cues and no named speaker diarization labels in this edition — only numeric "Speaker N" markers, so speakers were inferred from context (Wapner addresses the committee by name throughout) and relabelled: Speaker 1 = Scott Wapner, 2 = Rob Sechan, 3 = Amy Raskin, 4 = Jenny Harrington, 5 = Josh Brown, 6 = Frank Holland (news update), 7 = Michael Santoli, 8 = Oliver Renick, 9 = the disclaimer voice-over. Where the flow does not make the speaker clear, no name is asserted. Chapter headings from Spotify are kept as == section == markers. Fillers (um/uh/you know) and stutters removed; obvious ASR name mangles corrected (Rob Seach->Rob Sechan, Jensen Wang/Guang/Wong->Jensen Huang, Kevin Morsch/cabin wash/Washington->Kevin Warsh, Edyardani->Ed Yardeni, alumina->Illumina, Abby->AbbVie, Lily->Lilly, Suncorp->Suncor, Into it->Intuit, Pinch->Impinj, calci->Kalshi, SIBO->Cboe, Western Didge->Western Digital, vert of->Vertiv, Frank Collins->Frank Holland, Max Sevens->Mag Sevens, Bayonne Coke->bay on Coke, MVDA->NVDA); genuinely ambiguous garbles are left as spoken and flagged [sic] or [garbled]; wording otherwise verbatim. == Investment Committee Debates Fed vs. NVIDIA's Market Impact == I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC Halftime Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center this hour, and a down week for stocks, but a very big week ahead. As NVIDIA reports, the Fed chair speaks in Jackson Hole. We game it all out with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour, Jenny Harrington, Amy Raskin, Rob Sechan and Josh Brown. Take you to the markets here once again. The focus, yes, is on stocks. We are green, but the focus is on rates as well. And we are green as they say there too because yields are back up again. But really we're turning our eyes towards next week as it plays into everything, how we just started the show. NVIDIA earnings, the Fed chair speaking, the NASDAQ 100 trying to avoid its sixth straight down day today. By the way, NVIDIA is having its best month since April, Rob. It's leading the mega caps this year now as well. It's up 16%. That is the best performance. It has woken up, as they've been saying. And now we head into a really critical week. How do you see it? [Rob Sechan] To me, NVIDIA is always important, right? And they've continued to deliver again and again and again. But the more important story, at least in the very short run, is the Fed meeting. And in my mind, they really have only a couple choices to do what they want, which is in control of the long end of the curve, neither of which I think are particularly palatable. They can obviously raise rates to deal with the inflation problem that we see out there. Alternatively, they can control the long end because they're limited right now in terms of borrowing short just because of the size of short term borrowing to buy at the long end. So they can engage in QE, which would also bring that down. [Scott Wapner] They aren't doing it. There's no Fed meeting next week. [Rob Sechan] But they can indicate, right? They can indicate, kind of tip their hand as to what they're going to do. Hear me out one second. The thing that would save everything is opening the Strait, because it relieves the inflationary [pressure]. [Scott Wapner] Yeah, of course. Good luck with that. In the near term though, now that you have rates backing up, does the speech put more pressure — [Rob Sechan] 100%. [Scott Wapner] — on what happens next week for the near term direction of the market, maybe even more so than NVIDIA, or no? [Rob Sechan] I think in the near term direction, yes, but listen, you need both. This is a two-headed monster next week. == Amy Raskin on NVIDIA Earnings and Fed's Hawkish Stance == I fully expect, with what's going on in the AI complex, NVIDIA to deliver strong results as they always have. The question is where do they indicate the forward expectations are, and they've continued to raise that bar. So I think NVIDIA is a safe bet. I think the Fed communication is something that's uncertain thus far. We're still digesting a new communication style from our new Fed chair, but it's clear that the administration is wanting to control long term rates. [Scott Wapner] Of course, it's as much political as anything else, I think, at this point. So what's the bigger event in your mind next week, Amy, the speech or the earnings? Because the earnings are Wednesday. The speech is Friday. [Amy Raskin] They're both big. I mean, NVIDIA will be huge if it doesn't deliver exactly what people expect it to deliver. But I'm not in that camp. I think they're going to say great things. I think they're going to have great numbers. We'll see what the stock — I actually in some ways I'm more interested in what the stock does rather than what the numbers are, because that will tell you what people are expecting and how optimistic people are. And that's what we really don't know. The numbers are going to be great. [Scott Wapner] And the numbers have been great, right? And the stock hasn't always been great. [Amy Raskin] So I'm actually interested in the reaction to the numbers in some ways even more than the numbers. With regard to what Kevin Warsh could do next week, he's in a hard position. He has to be hawkish. I don't think anybody's expecting him not to be hawkish. But then the question is, does he deliver? And that's what has been the question so far, is that all of his speeches have been very hawkish. And I think that's what happened at the last FOMC meetings. Everyone's like, you're so hawkish. You're saying it has to be 2%. It's not 2%. Why aren't you raising? [Scott Wapner] But he sort of gets off the hook, doesn't he, by a weaker retail report, the last two jobs reports being weaker, the last two inflation reports, CPI/PPI being softer. So that kind of takes the edge off, doesn't it? Maybe he doesn't have to be as hawkish as he otherwise — [Amy Raskin] But people are going to say, look, inflation is still above expectations. We still think the Fed is relatively easy. And so when are you going to do something about that, and are you going to tell me at all how you're even thinking about it? And I think he is going to say 2% is still our North Star. We still want 2%. I don't see how he can say anything but that. And then I think that opens it up to the next meeting of like, OK, so you're saying 2% and we're still not there. And people say the three month average is a 1.6 and he can use those numbers, which are right. But the 2% is still far, far away. [Scott Wapner] So, Jenny, we're at let's just call it 7700 on the S&P, even though we're just a little bit below that once again. Now, is the determining factor between now and let's say the next couple months determined by — because let's also suggest that we don't think the Fed's going to do anything at the next meeting, right? We don't think they're going to hike. They're definitely not going to cut. So let's just assume that they stand pat. So then that makes next week and the speech maybe even more important. But then I've got NVIDIA looming as well. So if I think that the stock market can hit, let's just say 8400 by the end of this year or even stronger than that as some forecasts are now coming to believe we can do, does next week hold the key on both regards, earnings and Fed? == Jenny Harrington vs. Josh Brown: Q3 Earnings or AI's Broad Impact? == [Jenny Harrington] Speech — I don't think next week even matters, and I'll tell you why. [Scott Wapner] That is a controversial suggestion. So please explain yourself. [Jenny Harrington] I think Warsh is off the hook because earnings are doing all the work, right? We've had a year where the 10 year's gone from 4.2 to 4 3/4 and the market's up. If you told me at the beginning of the year that interest rates are going to be up that much, you wouldn't think stocks are up that much. Why are stocks up? Because of this spectacular earnings growth. What happens every time NVIDIA reports, every time they have great numbers? They're already anticipated and the stock yawns a little in one direction or the other direction. I don't think anything that NVIDIA says next week is going to matter to NVIDIA. We already know what they're going to say. It might matter more to CoreWeave or Microsoft or OpenAI. [Scott Wapner] But therein lies the conflict in what you said, no? [Jenny Harrington] No, no, no. Here's the thing, all that matters between now and the next four months is Q3 earnings reports that will start to get in November. And so I think we're in a period — I think the reason we're focusing on next week and Warsh and NVIDIA is because we have nothing else to talk about. We're just going to hold on. We're just in a waiting period until earnings start to be reported. And by the way, I think earnings are going to be spectacular again. So if you want to know where I think the market ends, I think the market ends up. Might be here, might be 8000, who knows. I think the earnings for this year and the earnings growth rates, those are predetermined. They're mathematical, they're coming, they're happening, and next week is just interesting. But I don't think it's a determinant of anything. And I don't think it's terribly insightful because I think we already know here and now today exactly what both of them are going to tell us. [Scott Wapner] So, Josh Brown, what do you think? [Josh Brown] Jenny, I hate to say this, I'm on the complete and total other side. I understand your point. The part I'm not disputing is the pattern with NVIDIA is it runs into the numbers and then people go to bars to watch the earnings report on TV and it goes down 2%. And I totally agree with that part. But you took it too far as you always do. Jensen Huang is the AI Fed chair. Do you understand he is to the earnings growth of the S&P what Kevin Warsh is to interest rates? And I happen to think that if we just focus on the stock price reaction in NVIDIA, we're missing the whole point of the exercise. We know it's going to be a spectacular report. It almost always is. We don't know about the guidance, but expected revenue of 92 billion. Just for context, this is the largest company in the world. Now that would be a 97% year over year increase. Not in earnings, in sales. It's insanity. I cannot believe this stock sells at a near market multiple. The earnings will also be up 99%. But again, everyone's going to yawn. Who cares? The bigger picture though is that there are two to 300 large cap stocks where what NVIDIA has to say about 2027 and 2028 on the call next week will absolutely have an impact. You're talking about dozens and dozens of $100 billion plus stocks and they will trade up or down based on what the AI Fed tells us. [Jenny Harrington] Here's my point. [Josh Brown] The backlog and the environment, and do you — [Jenny Harrington] Do you think he's going to say anything other than that the backlog is robust, that earnings are robust, that this is transformational? Do you think he's going to say anything negative? No. And do you think the Q3 earnings when they're reported are going to be anything but spectacular as a result? No, we already know these things. It's predetermined right now. He's not going to tell us something new. == How Interest Rates Influence Tech Momentum and Sector Flows == [Scott Wapner] Can I just suggest that I think we're at the stage though where we don't necessarily need revelatory, we just need confirmatory. We just need to hear from him, to Josh's point, what he sees over the next few quarters. [Josh Brown] Take a breath, though, because confirmatory is enough. We have multiple contraction this year. We have an up stock market, but it's not as if people are extrapolating and taking multiples up for the market this year. So confirming guidance and tone is every bit as important. And I'm going to tell you right now, Dell is a $300 billion market cap, HPE is 74 billion. How did that happen? Arista Networks — you probably don't even know what it is — is a $235 billion market cap. Marvell 200 billion, Broadcom 1.7 trillion. We know Micron, we know AMD, etcetera. Now think about GE Vernova is a $270 billion market cap. Eaton 165, Vertiv 100 billion. You cannot tell me that the AI Fed, and Jensen Huang is AI Fed chair, that those remarks are not going to affect vast swaths of the S&P 500. You can't convince me that it's a non event because I know it's not. [Jenny Harrington] It might be for NVDA. I think it's going to be for everything. That's my argument. I think it's universally positive. [Scott Wapner] So BMO initiates NVIDIA — they obviously have some new coverage over there — outperform, 340 as the target. That is a 57% upside. They take Micron outperform, 1300 is the target. So you're looking at lofty gains they see from here. That's 33% higher than where it opened today. Broadcom 455, that's 25% upside. And AMD outperform, 550 target. That's a 17% upside. Amy, you have Broadcom, you have NVIDIA. What's your opinion here? [Amy Raskin] Look, we've owned them for ages. We've owned NVIDIA since 2014 when I joined Chevy Chase Trust. It was one of the first stocks we put in the portfolio. And I'm not overweight either of the stocks. So we like them. But again, I think there are other more interesting stocks in the market at this point. They just have very high expectations in them. There's a lot of good news. The multiples are not rich. So we still own them. It's just getting to that next leg. And I think what NVIDIA could do for the whole ecosystem is really prove out the end case. It's not just talk about the backlog, just talk about what are the killer apps that are using AI besides coding, which we all know. Give us examples about that. Really make the productivity story, because the productivity story is still to come. It hasn't played out yet. [Scott Wapner] We would not be asking that question that we are on the screen right now — can Momentum get its mojo back — if it was a foregone conclusion that NVIDIA's great earnings and commentary and guidance or whatever was a layup for the Momentum trade itself. Because not necessarily. [Jenny Harrington] I'm just saying I don't think it reduces it. It just confirms, like, yeah, hey, it's great. [Scott Wapner] If it only was going to confirm it, we wouldn't have to ask that question, because it's not a given. That trade is very much in question after a massive run, a July reset. [Amy Raskin] They want to see OpenAI. OpenAI's growth is a little disappointing. There's a lot of things in there. [Rob Sechan] You're all missing the short term moves in this. In the short run, yes, we're going to get the confirmation we all expect. Maybe not you, Scott. We're going to get the confirmation that we expect. But the reality of it is, what happens at the long end of the curve is what drives the incremental flows. If interest rates pull in, you're going to get a high beta bid and momentum's going to be fine for a bit. That's it, period. [Jenny Harrington] I agree with you. [Rob Sechan] As you should, because it's the right call. In the short [run], it depends on the messaging. Can you control with language? Yes you can. [Jenny Harrington] I don't think you can. I don't think the Fed's controlling [it]. [Scott Wapner] OK. So I think that's up for debate, whether you can control it with language. [Amy Raskin] You can control the long end with language. [There was] action last week and it didn't. [Scott Wapner] There's something to be said for jawboning. [Rob Sechan] Action from the Fed. You saw action from the Treasury. [Scott Wapner] The jawboning by the Fed is, I don't think, up for debate, being more powerful than jawboning from Treasury, right? I mean, the Fed is the Fed. He was hawkish after the last meeting, rates went up. [Rob Sechan] The administration has to do — he's going to do QE because he's tightening the balance sheet. So that is unlikely. So I think you're going to do QE. It's one of the things that goes on the table every time rates start to get away. So you can't completely ignore that possibility. And the other possibility, as I said earlier, was taken completely off the table. But the point of your question is, can momentum get its mojo back? Let me say this, you start to get a really weak dollar trade, you're going to see flows into crypto, you're going to see flows into the high-earning-in-the-future names that are discounted now at a lower rate. You will see every quant model do exactly that in the most liquid names and momentum will come back. If you get a runaway of interest rates where it looks like they're losing control, I think the reverse happens. [Scott Wapner] I think that's right. So Tom Lee still says 7900 to 8000 by the end of this month. Ed Yardeni says whatever pullback that we may still be in because of rates should be modest. We also thought it would be interesting to look at outside of tech, what's actually worked and what hasn't this week, what the statement may be as a result of that. == Analyzing Healthcare's Best Week and Long-Term Potential == So I feel like you have to take this next thing with a little bit of a grain of salt. The fact that healthcare is having its best week since late June — it is the top sector week to date. I say grain of salt because if I of course tell you that Moderna is up 140% week to date and that Merck and Moderna had the kind of announcement that they did, it's kind of like master the obvious that that sector is going to have a great week. What are you raising your hand for? [Jenny Harrington] I'm excited to talk about this. So I think if we take Rob's construct that if we see interest rates come down, right, and the momentum trade takes off because long dated cash flows are worth more with lower interest rates, the opposite's true here. And so I think what the market's saying is like, look, interest rates we think are going to stay longer. And yes, you're right, Moderna and Merck skewed it this week. But if I look at holdings in my portfolio, Pfizer — like crazy little Pfizer up 17% year to date, Bristol-Myers up 25%. So you can look across healthcare. [Scott Wapner] Hey, Thermo — you own Thermo, that was up 6% this week. [Jenny Harrington] Right. Yep. But I think if you take that interest rate construct in terms of its influence on the stock market, that explains healthcare, not necessarily this week, but in a bigger picture. And if you say, hey, I think the 10 year's going to stay at this 4 3/4 level — we know the government's going to do whatever they can to tamp it down when it hits 5%. But there's a lot of supply out there. There's corporate debt supply that's been driven by the AI trade. There's huge government debt supply and the supply is keeping interest rates up. That favors short term, here and now, cash flow oriented companies that are pumping out cash now, because cash today is more valuable than cash in the future, particularly when interest rates [are high]. [Scott Wapner] Amy has Illumina, Amy has Vertex, among others. [Amy Raskin] Yeah, no, look, I think the healthcare trade has more legs to run. Illumina has been — it is probably the largest stock in my portfolio right now. I used it with my final trade at the beginning of the year a few times. The entire backbone of our genomic sequencing is on Illumina equipment. It was less than a $20 billion market cap. It's now a $30 billion market cap. But Josh just gave you a ton of market caps in the 100, 200, $300 billion range. So I think this kind of company has a lot to go, and the demand you can just see from Moderna and sort of the new technologies and the new personalized medicine is here and is coming. But I think long rates, on the other subject, are here to stay unless we get material slowdown in growth. It's hard to see what's going to bring long rates down significantly unless you get a growth slowdown. And then if you get a growth slowdown, do you get it because of the AI trade or in spite of the AI trade? And so I don't think it's going to be that easy that long rates are going to come down and everybody's just going to pile into tech, because probably the reason for that is going to be something that scares people. [Scott Wapner] Gilead, overweight, Rob — 155 [target]. Lilly, overweight, 1410. You own both. [Rob Sechan] Yeah. And AbbVie, by the way. This is all about consistency of earnings, valuation, great pipelines, in what look to be like long term beneficiaries of using technology to advance their ability to bring products to the market. I do believe the consistency matters in this uncertain time. And so this is a sector that had been under recognized, had re-rated quite a bit. Used to be Lilly, they were trading at 50 times earnings, they re-rated all the way down into the 20s. Unbelievable dominance in GLP-1s, right? Unbelievable dominance. And then you have the other two companies that we own that have great product pipelines too. == Debate: Is the Energy Sector Running on Fumes or Still Strong? == [Scott Wapner] OK, energy record high today, second best sector week to date, top sector this year. Everybody knows at this point what oil has obviously done. WTI coming off its 10th positive day in the last 11. Brent 11 in 12. Jonathan Krinsky though, Josh, suggests that we're now running on fumes, that he would not chase energy here. And you look at these gains year to date now — your Exxon's up 38%. There are Canadian Natural and Suncor, which are up better than 50. The gains here have been robust and I think for obvious reasons. But playing off what Krinsky says, running on fumes, wouldn't chase — continue to buy? What do you think? [Josh Brown] I don't know. He makes a fair point about how much they've run. And just to put that into context, the sector is up 7% on the month, but the IEO, which is the producer — so taking the Exxons out of the equation, the IEO is more like the independent energy companies, and they are making all time record highs today. And from my perspective that is not bearish. The IEO is up 54%, better than the XLE, up 45% on a year to date basis. Looking at the XLE, which again is Exxon 30% of that index, which includes the refiners, which are all on my best stocks in the market list and we've talked about them a lot — 30% of XLE names are at 52 week highs this week. That's not an overbought sector. There's still a lot of room in the individual names there. So I think it's the kind of thing that if you're not in the trade and you want to heed Krinsky on the timing, and maybe wait for a negative crude oil day or a positive tweet about Iran or something and then you want to buy that dip, you can, but I don't think you want to walk away. And I don't agree that all of the stocks in the group are running on fumes. The last thing I would say is one more button down on Sechan's shirt and this show goes on the court to Magic Mike. [Scott Wapner] I mean, you do have to take into consideration that he did email the executive producer of the program today. He included me and others asking if it was no tie Friday. Apparently he got a little overexcited at the answer. [Josh Brown] Being yes, it was no tie, but I don't want to talk to his neighbor. [Scott Wapner] Yeah, nor does anybody else for that matter. So Barron's is still bullish on the refiners and they like those. You have a ton of exposure in this group. Just on my list I've got Total Energies, Energy Transfer, Shell, Enterprise Products, Kinder. There are probably others too. MLPX [sic]. [Jenny Harrington] So Total and Shell are in our international strategy and those are majors, right? They're not necessarily refiners. I'm comfortable holding those. Josh, to your point, I don't know that you want to walk away. I'm not sure I want to walk away. I don't know, I might want to walk away. I don't want to run away. I don't think you need to do it this minute, but these are rich and you need to understand that the Shell and the Total and the Exxon and the Chevron, I meant to say, all those guys, they're all up because oil is trading like $86 a barrel right now. They're rich. They're just up on oil prices. OK, forget the multiple, Rob, but Chevron started the year at like 165, is trading at 200 now, right? And that is purely driven by the fact that oil went from $58 a barrel to $86 a barrel, in a straight [line]. So hold on, let me finish. So what we've been hearing is that the US government is guiding a ton of oil out through the Straits of Hormuz. Every day I hear different things about workarounds, right? This pipeline's open. That pipeline's open. I don't think that $86 is sustainable. Where I like to be, Scott, when you say you've got a lot of exposure there — most of those, Energy Transfer, Enterprise, Kinder Morgan, MPLX, those guys are all the midstream energy space. They're also up 25% on the year, 25-30% a lot of them, but they don't have the exposure. And that goes back to the healthcare conversation, which is if you think interest rates are going to stay kind of high, these guys produce significant cash here and now today, and that's valuable. So if I want to stay in the energy trade, I want to stay in a space that I don't think has run up because of the price of oil over the year. I don't think oil goes from 86 to 106, and if you don't, then it should go back to [where it was]. [Rob Sechan] I think you have an opportunity to own an asset — we've been overweight energy all year. It's been one of our best performers. It's a hedge to higher interest rates and inflation. I own Suncor, I own CNQ. These are stocks that are up 55, 53, 48, 48. This is a combination of earnings momentum, high total yields and reasonable valuations still, which — we don't know what's going to happen. So why not maintain that exposure in a portfolio for right now? Just because they moved does not mean they're not going to continue to move. [Jenny Harrington] I'm just saying the ones that I think have really direct exposure to oil price, I might start to walk away from those. I like the Suncor, right? That's midstream [sic]. It doesn't have that much direct [exposure]. It's not up just because the oil price is up. Devon Energy is up. [Rob Sechan] We own Devon as well. == Underperforming Sectors and CNBC News Headlines == [Scott Wapner] OK, so what didn't work this week? Industrials, the worst week since March. That's the worst sector week to date. Banks worst week since February, and that is coming off the first close below the 50 day moving average since early June. All right, we're going to take a break. While we're away, Rob's going to button up a little bit, right? We're not live at [a] bond [event]. This is — we're at the New York Stock Exchange, Robbie. And we're going to talk about CrowdStrike, a couple of calls on the targets. They report next week too. And Josh Brown's best stocks in the market. I think we have that ahead too. We're back after this. [Frank Holland] Welcome back to Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland with your CNBC News Update. A Texas appeals court has cut the damages conspiracy theorist Alex Jones was ordered to pay Sandy Hook families from $50,000,000 to $1.5 million. The court ruled the trial judge improperly allowed the parents to exceed a state cap on damage awards. Jones was found civilly liable for defamation after falsely claiming the 2012 school massacre was a government hoax and that the grieving parents were actors. A federal appeals court has temporarily blocked a ruling that would have given thousands of college athletes an extra year of eligibility. The lawsuit was brought by players who graduated high school in 2022 and were excluded from a new NCAA five year eligibility rule starting next season. The 2 to 1 decision puts their possible return to school on hold while the appeal proceeds. And Walmart is tapping into tap to pay. Starting on August the 24th, select Walmart and Sam's Club locations will accept Apple Pay, Google Pay and contactless cards. The retailer says it plans to take the option nationwide by the end of the year. Scott, back over to you. == Evercore's Tech Hardware Picks and CrowdStrike/Impinj Analysis == [Scott Wapner] All right, Frank. Thank you. It's Frank Holland. It's good to have everybody back. Rob's fixed his wardrobe malfunction. [Rob Sechan] The [garbled] member of the block. Now that works for us. This is better. I mean, I don't want to tempt Josh any more than I already did. [Scott Wapner] Well done. Appreciate you. All right, let's do some calls. It's funny that, Josh, you mentioned Arista Networks earlier, because Evercore is out with its top six tech hardware stocks to own for the second half. It's on the list. Says the market's underwriting the durability and length of Arista's potential for growth. I just want to take that first since you mentioned it earlier. By the way, Apple, Amphenol, Arista, Cisco, Seagate, Western Digital are the names on the list. [Josh Brown] Yeah. So this is another one right off the best stocks in the market. We've written about it. We've written about Amphenol, Cisco — we've done pretty much all of these names over the course of the last year, year and change at this point. And even when they sell off, judge, even when they have these dips, they still remain in their longer term uptrends just because of the sheer magnitude of the growth and share price. So we all know these stocks trade up and down together. They're in all these baskets at Goldman Sachs, the program traders, the pod shops. And so you'll see them all green someday, you'll see them all red. I do appreciate that there are differences between them, but in the end, we all know why they're rallying. [Scott Wapner] Apple's been a stall out, Amy. I mean, it had this amazing run, earnings happened and then the stock didn't happen. [Amy Raskin] Well, I think everybody is now going back to the AI trade. Apple sort of does well when everybody worries about capital spending and too much money chasing AI, and they're the ones that aren't spending it and are still returning capital to shareholders. So when that's in vogue, Apple does really well. And when it's out of vogue, Apple doesn't do well. I'm not worried about Apple. [Scott Wapner] What do you think about Cisco, Jenny? That's on this list. [Jenny Harrington] So what I love about Cisco is that it doesn't matter who wins. It doesn't matter if Claude wins. It doesn't matter if ChatGPT wins, Gemini. It doesn't matter [if] Microsoft does well, Meta does well, or Apple does well. Our bet on Cisco is simply that as the AI trade makes the technology world bigger and more complex and people need more and more technology in their housing and businesses, Cisco wins. They're the infrastructure behind all of that. So it's pretty simple. Oh, and by the way, they still have a 5% free cash flow yield, so it's still enormously profitable, whereas a lot of the other guys have given up their free cash [flow]. [Scott Wapner] So what I hear you saying is that NVIDIA's results and what the Fed chair of AI, Jensen Huang, might say might actually be good for Cisco. [Jenny Harrington] And I think we already know that. [Scott Wapner] We already know that. Why is the stock flat since May? [Jenny Harrington] It's up 48% year to date. It's flat since May because it ran up so much. Look at it. You can't be mad at me all the time, OK? Trades at 25 times earnings, a little premium to the market where it used to trade at a discount. [Scott Wapner] All right, CrowdStrike. Worst week since March of '25. All right, we're up 93% over six months. They report next Wednesday. Josh — the target to 250, Loop; the target to 240, KeyBank. [Josh Brown] Yeah, and I just got finished reading the bio of the new guy they hired and he is an absolute beast. He's a guy that's coming out of NVIDIA, and it's all about AI cybersecurity at this stage in the game. And as we get further into robotics, it'll be about cybersecurity as it pertains to automation. So it looks as though they have the right person in the seat. I don't really understand what that selloff was about yesterday. Probably algos trading with algos. I have full faith and confidence that we will ultimately see new highs in the stock again. [Scott Wapner] Amy — and Impinj, outperform, 220, BMO. That's 38% higher than here. [Amy Raskin] Yeah, now this is a $5 billion ultra high frequency RFID stock. They make the little chips that get printed out in your baggage tag so you know where your luggage is and the plane, and all sorts of things. And UPS is putting it on every package now. Walmart's rolling it out. It's a duopoly. They have the best technology. We like it long term. == Mike Santoli's Take on Market Drivers and Rate Sensitivity == [Scott Wapner] All right, we'll break. We'll come back. Santoli on the other side. Our senior markets commentator and Overtime co-anchor, Mike Santoli, is here at Post nine for his midday word. All right. What do you think about the week that's going to end here and really what lies ahead? [Michael Santoli] The market definitely got tested on a few different fronts. Obviously, we're watching yields, 4.73 on the 10 year. Also, though, semis down 6% on the week, banks down 4% on the week, industrials actually kind of faltered a little bit. So a lot of the drivers have sputtered a little bit, yet we're sitting here a couple percent from the high. So it shows you the market's not across the board ready to really back away. What I also find interesting today is you have yields up and yet the market's breadth is positive and equal weight's outperforming. That's usually not the pattern. Maybe we're just kind of meandering as volatility recedes at the end of the week. So I guess I would say you give the market credit for what it's done, but I'm not sure we finished the business, and the sensitivity to rates, I don't see it going away. Really aggressive move in the commodity index, not just gold this week. So it feels like a little bit of a different tone. The risk seems to skew in the direction of overheat and we have to chase that with rates. [Scott Wapner] If you had to rank what you think matters more next week, is that worth entertaining, between Warsh and NVIDIA? [Michael Santoli] I'm going to say Warsh, in the sense of the market seems to know how to prepare for and metabolize NVIDIA at this phase, in terms of we kind of price the likely move. We think we know what the raise of guidance is going to be and all the rest of it. And Warsh, I just think there's a wider range of probabilities in what policy might be and what the pronouncements might be. That to me explains a lot of what's happening in yields, just that sort of what-if factor that you have to price in. [Scott Wapner] It's like Josh now calling Jensen Huang the Fed chair of AI. So they're both speaking next week. [Michael Santoli] Is that a compliment or — [Scott Wapner] A compliment of the power that he wields. Yes, it's a compliment, no doubt. And the power to jawbone too. That's true. We will see, Mike. Thanks. I'll see you later. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market are next. == Josh Brown Spotlights Monster Beverage and Coca-Cola's Success == [Scott Wapner] All right, welcome back. We're doing Josh Brown's best stocks in the market here, but we're looking at two of his so-called Halo stocks and they haven't left the list since being added. Coca-Cola and Monster. Why are we looking at those today? [Josh Brown] They've performed very well this year, both of them making highs. We wrote these up and did a TV segment about these on February 9th and the gist of it was not everything in the Halo theme is like heavy, heavy, heavy assets like trucks. Sometimes we're talking about something as simple as coffee or chocolate or sugar. In this case we're talking about soft drinks and caffeine. So I want to talk about Coke and Monster Beverage because they both look pretty good and they are still on the list and they've never left. Over the last 25 years, Monster Beverage is the single best performing stock in the entire S&P 500. If you put $2000 in the name in 2001, it would be worth about $23 million today. That's a 230,000% return. I don't suggest that'll repeat, however, this stock is still on fire. Second quarter net sales were up 20.2% to 2 1/2 billion. Latin America up 56%, China up 62%, India up 84%. People are just still discovering the product all over the world. The stock is testing its 50 day right now, which is about 47. I would say the line in the sand for traders is 41. That's the top of the post earnings gap. By the way, this name just split two for one on August 11th. The investor stop I'd give it a little bit more room, down to the 200 day, which is 35. Let's do Coca-Cola. The second quarter report was the cleanest print for Coke we've seen in a long time. Net revenue was up 7% to 13 1/2 billion. Organic revenue up 6%. Gross margins 62.9%. Pretty good. I guess the GLP-1s haven't stopped people from drinking this stuff. They're touting the FIFA World Cup as the reason for the strongest trademark Coca-Cola volume growth in 17 years, up 5%. Powerade up 8. Management raised guidance. Everything that we want to see. I think on Coke, this is a stock that probably continues to make new highs. I'd use 77, which was the March shakeout low and where it recovered from, as kind of the area where I'd say, OK, if we break that level, the buyers have changed their minds. They're not coming back. Let's walk away. Until then, I think you want to be long in the name. I think we'll see 100 bucks. == Investment Committee Debates Coca-Cola and Monster Beverage Valuations == [Scott Wapner] What do you think, Robbie? [Rob Sechan] We've owned it for a long time. I mean, it's having a great year. They have enormous pricing power, great brand portfolio, really benefited from the World Cup. It's tough to argue what they did there, and they have a 2.3% dividend yield. And so you have a company that's incredibly strong and has the tailwinds of being the other side of the barbell versus what has been working of late. [Scott Wapner] Is the yield too low? [Josh Brown] Last point, I should have mentioned this. Coca-Cola and Monster did a deal in 2015. Coca-Cola took a $2 billion stake in Monster, so they own 19 1/2% of MNST. So not only are both these companies doing well, they're actually business partners. And Coke is a substantial equity investor in Monster. [Scott Wapner] I appreciate that. [Jenny Harrington] So to answer the question, the yield's a little too low, but not a lot too low. And so I've actually been looking at Pepsi also. Now Pepsi has a huge snack portfolio, which would make Coke relatively attractive because there is enormous, unbelievable threat from the GLP-1s. So we need to be careful with that. But what holds me really at bay on Coke is it's just expensive. To Josh's point, they said they had 7% earnings growth, right? I think that's what you said. And it's still trading at 27 times earnings. Frankly, you can look at the Mag 7 and find a far more compelling combination. And I think if you do worry about the K-shaped consumer, right, there's a huge percentage of people who drink Coke and Dasani and Powerade and all that who will be under pressure. So I don't like the valuation given the economic backdrop, or given the earnings growth, which is great for Coke but not great in the bigger [picture]. [Scott Wapner] But says the person who only owns one of the Mag Sevens, right? [Jenny Harrington] Right. [Scott Wapner] But if they're all so compelling relative to Coca-Cola, where's the trade? [Jenny Harrington] Because they're not compelling relative to the 5% free cash flow hurdle that we have, that needs to be there for the discipline[d] growth strategy. == Exchanges, Crypto, and Panelists' Last Stock Recommendations == [Scott Wapner] All right. Welcome back. Options action time. Go to the Cboe in Chicago. We're talking about exchanges. What trades do we see? [Oliver Renick] That's right, Scott — exchanges and crypto. The big story this week was President Trump's comments on regulating decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, and the reaction in Per [sic] stock as well as the incumbent exchanges that are facing real competition from perpetual futures, the 24/7 traded contracts that offer huge leverage and don't settle or expire. Per [sic] surged 60% this week, now tripling this year. They own $2 billion of HYPE tokens that power the exchange, but you can see here trading on Kalshi. But here's the fun twist this week. Exchange stocks like Cboe, CME and My ex [sic] have been under pressure this year around perps. They took a fresh hit on Wednesday after the Hyperliquid news but since have fully recovered and are now rallying. I think that's because this next phase of regulation might be the beginning of the join-them phase rather than the fight-them phase for exchanges, who are not typically ones to shy away from supplying where there is customer demand. Scott. [Scott Wapner] Oliver Renick, thanks so much. We'll see you later this afternoon. Which is interesting, this trade, Josh, because Cboe, CME, Intercontinental have all fallen off the best stocks in the market list. [Josh Brown] Yeah. There's just this incredible fear that the next generation of investors, rather than learning to actually trade futures, are just going to place bets. And they'll do that in a binary way. And they'll use prediction markets and they'll do things like above or below this level, or higher or lower by this time next year, or however they want to do it, rather than trying to be sophisticated and learning the ins and outs of derivatives. And I'm not going to say it's an illegitimate fear. And I also point out the type of activity that prediction markets are going after is some of the last most profitable commissionable activity at all of the brokerages and all of the exchanges. It's not shocking that the brokerages have embraced this. They almost have to — they sort of have to cannibalize themselves, because if people default to this rather than options and futures, they need to be there. The good news is if you look at Robinhood's last earnings report, this is far and away the best thing that they're doing right now in terms of margins, better than even crypto. So I think that fear will remain above the heads of those exchanges and there's going to be some political fights about it too. It's not over yet. [Scott Wapner] Yeah. All right. We'll take a break. We'll come back and we can still have final trades ahead. 3:00 Closing Bell, Professor Jeremy Siegel and Tom Lee. And so we're going to finish out the week and look ahead to what's a very big one next. You have the first final trade today. [Jenny Harrington] OK. My Microchip preferred, a 5 3/4 yield. I actually bumped it up for people who didn't own it this week. It's a nice way to get a little bit of tech exposure and still get some income. [Scott Wapner] Amy. [Amy Raskin] Cognex, leader in machine vision, $10 billion market cap. Long runway. [Scott Wapner] OK, Robbie. [Rob Sechan] Intuit. Not all software is created equal. Now was yesterday, Intuit today, both up 26% for the month. [Scott Wapner] All right, Josh Brown. [Josh Brown] You didn't hear this from me, but Toast is right now making a new year to date high. How do you like that? [Scott Wapner] Thank you. Good weekend, everybody. The Exchange is now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC. [disclaimer] All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/halftimereportdisclaimer.