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CNBC Halftime Report — A Critical Week for Stocks: Your Next Move

Apple prints a fresh all-time high (~$320) as money rotates out of memory/semis into the mega caps — even as Fed Governor Waller's very hawkish "be ready to tighten" speech (Sept-hike odds jump 63%→77%, July to 47%, the 10-yr ~4.61 near a year-high) hammers the long-duration semis (Marvell −8%, Micron −6%, Intel −6.5%) into a critical earnings week that kicks off with the banks. Around it: Link's first-ever NVIDIA buy + an Amazon add, Lebenthal buying Micron on the Chips-Act-anniversary capital-returns catalyst, the banks "a buy" into the prints, Sethi's Ferrari/Stryker adds, and Disney split on the Wells Fargo "exit streaming" call.
2026-JUL-13 · CNBC Halftime Report (audio edition) · host Scott Wapner; committee Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Lebenthal, Sarat Sethi · ~46 min · ▶ Listen · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: A critical week framed by two forces pulling opposite ways. Apple hits a new intraday all-time high (~$320) as an internal rotation out of memory/semis lifts the mega caps — Terranova runs a "tactical trade," buying breakouts (last ~$310), calls it his "All Star of 2026" and reads the $320 average target / 61% buy rating as embedded analyst skepticism; Sethi frames Apple as the "safe ship in a spending storm" (positive FCF and buybacks vs the negative-FCF hyperscaler spenders) as it raises prices. Against that, Waller delivers a very hawkish "any serious policy rule calls for raising the rate" speech ahead of tomorrow's CPI and Warsh on the Hill — the September-hike probability jumps to 77% (July 47%), the 10-yr sits ~4.61, and the long-duration semis get tagged (Marvell −8%, Micron −6%, Intel −6.5%). Single-stock moves: Link makes her first-ever NVIDIA buy (18× forward, ~80% revenue growth, mid-70s GM, FCF to double, 97% GPU share, cheapest since 2019), adds Amazon (best-positioned hyperscaler), owns/trims Marvell and likes Broadcom ($20 earnings power); Lebenthal buys Micron over three weeks (~3% position; Chips-Act-anniversary capital-returns catalyst) and finals BlackRock. Banks are "a buy" into earnings: Link's Capital One at 7.5× with ~$2.6B Discover synergies (her final trade), Goldman/Morgan Stanley the obvious capital-markets plays, watching Wells Fargo (asset-cap lift, NII bottoming); Terranova added JPMorgan and CBOE, owns Amex (affluent consumer), wary of fast-rising expectations; Sethi finals Morgan Stanley (wealth-management catalyst). Sethi also buys Ferrari (down double digits on an EV misstep, sold out two years) and Stryker (robotics leader, buying the cyber issue), and sells Zimmer and Zoetis ("a mistake"). Disney splits the desk on the Wells Fargo "should Disney exit streaming?" call (PT cut 146→125); Oracle hits a 52-week low on debt-market indigestion. Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Panel = CNBC's investment committee; "View" is the panel's net take this episode and the cell names which member(s) held it. This is an audio podcast — no (mm:ss) timestamps, so each "At" cell opens the Spotify episode (not a deep-link). Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat the committee saidAt
AAPLAppleQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe headline — a new intraday all-time high (~$320, first since June). Terranova: it's a "tactical trade," buying the breakouts (last ~$310 Thursday), momentum near-term stretched so he'll sit back, would buy more after earnings — his "All Star of 2026," and the $320 12-mo average target / only 61% buy rating shows an "embedded skepticism" that's the upside setup. Sethi: raising prices with positive FCF and buybacks vs the negative-FCF Fab-7 spenders — a "safe ship in a spending storm" investors want to hold. On the Friday OpenAI lawsuit: Lebenthal calls it routine IP protection, not an existential threat; Terranova agrees but flags the Jony Ive departure as "somewhat disturbing," not dismissible.listen↗
NVDANvidiaQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLink's first-ever NVIDIA buy (last week's noteworthy move): 18× forward, revenue growing ~80% with mid-70s gross margins, FCF set to double, 97% GPU share and proprietary software hard to replicate; "the cheapest it's been since 2019," out of favor, finding its footing. Terranova: a "return to accumulation" after sitting sideways for a multi-month period; benefiting from the rotation out of memory. She'll keep adding on ugly days.listen↗
AMZNAmazonQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLink added to it — of the hyperscalers, "in a much better position of strength" across advertising, compute, retail and AWS, and the valuation "makes a lot of sense." The one she'd be buying more of (vs Meta, which she's not adding). More upside than Meta or the other Mag-7 spenders.listen↗
MUMicron TechnologyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal bought it over the past three weeks (now ~3%, "more than a nibble") and won't flinch on today's ~5% drop — his "stick to your style" fundamental play: the coming Chips-Act anniversary lets Micron start returning capital to shareholders (the catalyst he waits for), and he thinks it does "fine over the intermediate to long term." Taiwan Semi's print at week's end is the first near-term read on semis.listen↗
MRVLMarvell TechnologyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLink owns it and has been trimming into strength ("it's up a whole lot") but "still like it very much" — part of her barbell of owning both semis and software. Down almost 8% on the day as the hawkish-Waller hit landed hardest on the long-duration semis.listen↗
AVGOBroadcomQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLink: "Broadcom, I think they have $20 in earnings power" — a semi she likes within her barbell alongside NVIDIA and Marvell.listen↗
JPMJPMorgan ChaseQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveTerranova added JPMorgan over the last month — but he's "a little concerned" that expectations for the money-center banks flipped from low to high in a 30-day span, so he's selective. One of the obvious plays into the bank-earnings kickoff.listen↗
CBOECboe Global MarketsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveTerranova added CBOE over the last month — his other financial-exchange add alongside JPMorgan; "without question in the financial exchanges" there's a lot to like.listen↗
AXPAmerican ExpressQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveTerranova owns it — modest underperformance means expectations aren't stretched, and it "continues to work" in a strong economy with the affluent consumer spending. Upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan today. A name he says you can focus on.listen↗
COFCapital One FinancialQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLink's conviction bank and her final trade: at 7.5× earnings, down ~17% on the year, with ~$2.6B of Discover-deal synergies "totally not appreciated in the stock price" — "really too cheap." Also upgraded to buy at HSBC today ("underperformance looks overdone").listen↗
WFCWells FargoQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLink doesn't own it anymore (it was once her largest position) but it's back "on my radar screen": down ~6% on the year and lagging after two disappointing quarters, but NII is "probably bottoming" this quarter and the asset-cap lift is "a very big deal" that should drive much better growth — an interesting one if it delivers tomorrow.listen↗
GSGoldman SachsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed by Link (with Morgan Stanley) as "the obvious plays" on the capital-markets recovery into earnings — IB fees seen +26%, M&A +9% (global M&A +57% ytd). CEO David Solomon is on CNBC with Faber tomorrow; Goldman reports Tuesday.listen↗
MSMorgan StanleyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSethi's final trade: the catalyst is the wealth-management business. Also named by Link (with Goldman) as one of the obvious capital-markets plays into the bank prints.listen↗
BLKBlackRockQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal's final trade: "we see what happened to asset prices in the second quarter — that will show up in earnings." Reports this week (Wednesday).listen↗
RACEFerrariQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSethi bought it: a high-quality company down double digits this year on an EV misstep, but "a car you can't get enough of" — sold out for two more years — so he sees it doing "really well going forward." The valuation now gives the opportunity.listen↗
SYKStrykerQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSethi bought Stryker (funding it by selling Zimmer): the higher-quality name — "much better management, team leader, robotics" — and he's using its current cyber issue as the entry point into a high-quality company.listen↗
METAMeta PlatformsQT · SA · STK · FANeutralLebenthal: a mega-cap now trading in "value territory" (with Microsoft). Link owns it but is not adding — "a bit frustrating," and though it's "very cheap" she won't sell out, they "have to show better monetization" before it takes off (a timing thing she thinks eventually comes). The capex rumor stepped up again — from $200B to a reported $250B — which is why she prefers Amazon here. Net: cheap but on hold.listen↗
MSFTMicrosoftQT · SA · STK · FANeutralLebenthal's other "value territory" mega cap (with Meta) — the price-aware, stay-true-to-your-style bargain example. Green on the day. No fresh buy/sell.listen↗
DISWalt DisneyQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSplit, on the Wells Fargo "should Disney exit streaming?" call (PT cut 146→125, sees ~40% upside). Lebenthal (owns it): something bold is needed, but streaming is now a "crown jewel" (money-loser → ~$2B/yr) — blames geopolitics/theme-park price fatigue + weak studio releases (Wapner pushes back hard, citing Marriott/airlines). Terranova (bought ~$103 end of April, "not happy"): an "identity crisis," balance sheet worse than five years ago, activism the only historical catalyst. Sethi: cash-rich assets under-utilized, needs a catalyst, consolidation possible. Both agree ESPN is under-leveraged. Owned but frustrated — waiting on a catalyst.listen↗
ORCLOracleQT · SA · STK · FANeutralAt a new 52-week low. Sethi (owns it): sold about half after last year's news-driven pop, holding the rest — Oracle can still make the transition and has earnings power, but it's spending into the business like the Fab-7 and "gets no credit for it at all"; painful, but he's holding at these levels. Lebenthal ties the recent weakness to debt-market indigestion from monumental offerings (Amazon, SpaceX's ~$25B deal, 7%+ yield-to-worst on the long end) — Oracle has leaned on debt for its data-center buildout.listen↗
BACBank of AmericaQT · SA · STK · FANeutralLink's counter to Terranova's "expectations too high" worry — "even like Bank of America" the bar isn't stretched. Cited in the bank-earnings-expectations debate; no fresh committee position.listen↗
TSMTaiwan SemiconductorQT · SA · STK · FANeutralCited by Lebenthal as the week's first near-term read on the semi space — Taiwan Semi reports at the end of the week. Context for the memory/semi debate; no individual call.listen↗
INTCIntelQT · SA · STK · FANeutralMarket color: named with Marvell and Micron as the long-duration semis selling off on the hawkish-Waller headlines — Intel down ~6.5% at the session lows. No individual call.listen↗
SKHYSK Hynix (ADR)QT · SA · STK · FANeutralMarket color: the newly-listed Korean HBM maker was "down sharply" (the Korean market down as well) as the memory complex sold off on the hawkish-rates turn. No committee position.listen↗
KVUEKenvueQT · SA · STK · FANeutralNews segment (Dom Chu), no committee stance: a federal appellate court revived some Tylenol/acetaminophen–autism/ADHD lawsuits; Kenvue's statement says "credible independent science shows no proven link" and it will keep defending. Shares ~−2% at session lows.listen↗
NFLXNetflixQT · SA · STK · FANeutralReferenced by Sethi in the streaming discussion — "look at Netflix, look at what Comcast is doing with NBC" — on how much streamers can really charge ("funflation"). Context for the Disney/streaming-consolidation debate; no fresh stance.listen↗
CMCSAComcastQT · SA · STK · FANeutralNamed by Sethi (its NBC/streaming efforts) as a comparison in the "how much can streaming really charge" discussion. No stance.listen↗
FCXFreeport-McMoRanQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSethi's cyclical/commodity analogy — "whether it's a Freeport or a Micron," the supply isn't catching up — used to contrast commodity cyclicals with the reinvest-into-R&D compounders like Apple/NVIDIA. Referenced, not a fresh pick.listen↗
PSKYParamount SkydanceQT · SA · STK · FANeutralNews segment (Pippa Stevens): California's AG is leading a 12-state lawsuit to block Paramount's $110B deal for Warner Bros. Discovery — combining two of Hollywood's five major film distributors could mean higher prices/fewer choices. No committee stance.listen↗
WBDWarner Bros. DiscoveryQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe target of Paramount's $110B deal that the 12-state antitrust suit seeks to block (news). No committee stance.listen↗
OpenAIOpenAINeutral(Private.) News/context (Kate Rooney): Apple's Friday lawsuit alleges OpenAI stole trade secrets after Altman's ~$6.5B acquisition of Jony Ive's startup + a bench of ex-Apple execs to build an AI device; OpenAI says it isn't interested in others' trade secrets. Reignited the Musk–Altman feud (Musk's "scam Altman" jab; Altman's retort). A fresh legal headwind as OpenAI eyes going public. No committee stance.listen↗
SpaceXSpaceXNeutral(Private.) Cited by Lebenthal as a driver of the debt-market indigestion pressuring Oracle: its recent ~$25B offering (with Amazon's) pushed spreads "wider, wider, wider" — yield-to-worst over 7% on one of the longer-dated issues. Also in the Musk–Altman feud color. No committee stance.listen↗
ZBHZimmer BiometQT · SA · STK · FANegativeSethi sold it to fund the Stryker buy — he'd "rather own Stryker," the higher-quality company with much better management and robotics leadership.listen↗
ZTSZoetisQT · SA · STK · FANegativeSethi sold it and calls it "a mistake" — "they kept on misstepping," so he closed out the position.listen↗

"View" = the panel's net stance this episode, with the committee member named in the note. Discussed only as context (not tabled): Wapner's counter-examples Marriott and Delta (up on the year / airlines doing well, used to challenge Disney's "it's all geopolitics" excuse); the record hyperscaler CapEx figures and the small-cap-vs-large-cap data (see the macro talking points). People not tabled: Scott Wapner & the committee, Megan Casella, Dominic Chu, Kate Rooney, Steve Liesman, Pippa Stevens, Matt Bartolini (State Street), Kevin Warsh, Chris Waller, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Jony Ive, Tim Cook, David Solomon, Ed Yardeni, Savita Subramanian.

2. Talking points

Apple's all-time high — the tactical trade and the "embedded skepticism"

Is Apple's OpenAI lawsuit a real threat?

How to play the mega caps as money leaves the semis

Link's first-ever NVIDIA buy

The semi/memory trade after the Waller hit

Bank earnings — high hopes into the prints

Waller's rate-hike warning — the hawkish shock

Oracle at a 52-week low — debt indigestion

Why small caps are beating large caps (State Street)

Should Disney exit streaming?

Sethi's moves & final trades

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of why each substantively-argued name matters. (These render on each ticker's consolidated page, where this audio episode has no excerpt to pull.)

AAPL — Apple Positive

Apple hit a new record high (around $320). Joe Terranova is playing it as a "tactical trade" — buying it as it breaks out to new highs rather than as a forever-hold — and after a strong run he'll pause and add more only after the next earnings report. He calls it his "All Star of 2026." His favorite bullish signal is counter-intuitive: Wall Street analysts' average 12-month price target is only about $320 (right where it trades) and just 61% rate it a buy — meaning the pros are still skeptical, which leaves room for the stock to surprise them.

Sarat Sethi's angle is safety: unlike the other big tech names pouring cash into AI and running negative free cash flow, Apple still generates lots of cash, buys back its own stock, and is raising prices — "a safe ship in a spending storm." His view is that investors would rather hold a proven, low-drama compounder than chase the heavy AI spenders. (A side debate: Apple's new lawsuit against OpenAI — Lebenthal calls it routine legal housekeeping, not a sign Apple is scared, though the departure of design legend Jony Ive to OpenAI gives Terranova some pause.)

NVDA — Nvidia Positive

Nvidia makes the chips that train and run AI. The news here is that Stephanie Link bought it for the first time ever, because the price finally got cheap enough: about 18 times next year's expected earnings, while the company is still growing sales roughly 80% a year at fat (mid-70s%) profit margins, with free cash flow set to double. She notes it controls about 97% of the market for AI chips and has software that's very hard for rivals to copy.

Her clincher: on valuation it's the cheapest it's been since 2019, and it's badly out of favor even though it has quietly stopped falling and "found its footing." Joe Terranova frames the same thing in trading terms — after going sideways for months, buyers are stepping back in (a "return to accumulation"). Link plans to keep buying it on ugly down days.

AMZN — Amazon Positive

Among the big tech companies spending heavily on AI, Stephanie Link thinks Amazon is the best positioned — it has multiple strong engines (advertising, cloud computing/AWS, and retail) rather than one, and the stock's valuation "makes a lot of sense." She added to it and says it's the hyperscaler she'd keep buying, explicitly preferring it over Meta (which she's holding but not adding to). In short: more ways to win and a more reasonable price than its mega-cap peers.

MU — Micron Technology Positive

Micron makes memory chips that AI servers need in bulk. Jim Lebenthal has been buying it over the past three weeks (now about 3% of his portfolio) and shrugged off its ~5% drop on the day — his whole point is "stick to your style" and don't panic over daily swings. His fundamental hook: the anniversary of the "Chips Act" is approaching, after which Micron can start returning cash to shareholders (buybacks/dividends) — a concrete catalyst he likes to wait for.

He thinks Micron does "fine over the intermediate to long term" and is watching Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings at the end of the week as the first real read on how the whole chip sector is doing.

MRVL — Marvell Technology Positive

Marvell makes custom AI and networking chips. Stephanie Link owns it and has been trimming (selling a bit) into its big run to lock in gains, but "still like it very much" — it's part of her deliberate "barbell" of holding both chip stocks and software. It fell almost 8% on the day because the hawkish Fed news hit the fast-growing, high-valuation chip names (so-called "long-duration" assets) the hardest.

AVGO — Broadcom Positive

Broadcom makes networking chips and custom AI silicon for the big cloud companies. Stephanie Link's one-liner is that it has "$20 in earnings power" — i.e. she thinks its earnings can reach a level that makes today's price look cheap — so it's one of the chip names she likes to own alongside NVIDIA and Marvell.

JPM — JPMorgan Chase Positive

Joe Terranova added to JPMorgan over the last month as one of the obvious ways to play the bank-earnings season. His one caveat: expectations for the big "money-center" banks swung from low to high in just 30 days, so he's being selective rather than buying the whole group indiscriminately.

CBOE — Cboe Global Markets Positive

Cboe runs options and futures exchanges — it makes money on trading volume rather than lending. Joe Terranova added it over the last month; he's especially comfortable "in the financial exchanges," where he sees less of the stretched-expectations risk he worries about in the traditional banks.

AXP — American Express Positive

American Express is the credit-card company that skews toward wealthier customers. Joe Terranova owns it and likes that it has slightly lagged the sector — meaning expectations aren't stretched — while the affluent consumer keeps spending in a strong economy, so it "continues to work." It was upgraded by JPMorgan analysts today.

COF — Capital One Financial Positive

Capital One is a consumer-lending bank that recently absorbed Discover. Stephanie Link's highest-conviction bank pick (and her final trade): it trades at just 7.5 times earnings, is down about 17% on the year, and — her key point — the market isn't giving it credit for roughly $2.6 billion in cost savings ("synergies") coming from the Discover deal. "Really too cheap." Analysts at HSBC upgraded it to buy today, saying the underperformance looks overdone.

WFC — Wells Fargo Positive

Wells Fargo used to be Stephanie Link's largest position; she sold out after two disappointing quarters but it's now "back on my radar." The turn she's watching: net interest income (the profit banks make on lending, "NII") is probably bottoming this quarter, and regulators lifting the cap on how big Wells can grow its balance sheet (the "asset cap") is a "very big deal" that should drive much better growth. The stock is down ~6% on the year and has lagged — so if it delivers in tomorrow's report, she finds it interesting.

MS — Morgan Stanley Positive

Morgan Stanley is a big investment bank with a large wealth-management arm. Sarat Sethi made it his final-trade pick, and the catalyst he's watching is that wealth-management business. Stephanie Link separately names it (with Goldman Sachs) as one of the "obvious plays" on a recovery in capital-markets activity — deal-making and trading — as bank earnings begin.

BLK — BlackRock Positive

BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, and its fees rise with the value of the assets it manages. Jim Lebenthal's final trade: because financial-market prices climbed in the second quarter, the assets BlackRock oversees are worth more, which should flow straight through to higher earnings when it reports (this Wednesday).

RACE — Ferrari Positive

Ferrari, the luxury sports-car maker, is down double digits this year after a stumble with its electric-vehicle plans. Sarat Sethi bought it anyway, because the core business is exceptional: demand so far outstrips supply that it's effectively "sold out for two more years." He sees the price weakness as the opportunity to own a high-quality brand that will "do really well going forward."

SYK — Stryker Positive

Stryker makes medical devices and is a leader in surgical robotics. Sarat Sethi bought it — funding the purchase by selling rival Zimmer Biomet — because he sees Stryker as the higher-quality company with much better management. He's using a current cybersecurity problem at Stryker as the dip to buy into a business he rates highly.

META — Meta Platforms Neutral

Meta owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. Jim Lebenthal counts it among the mega caps now trading in "value territory" (cheap). But Stephanie Link — who owns it — is deliberately not adding: it's "a bit frustrating," and while she agrees it's cheap, she needs to see Meta actually make money from its AI spending before the stock takes off. The spending keeps climbing (a rumored jump from $200 billion to $250 billion), which is why she'd rather add to Amazon. She won't sell, but she won't buy more — hence a hold.

DIS — Walt Disney Neutral

A Wells Fargo analyst argued Disney should exit streaming and refocus on producing content, theme parks and franchises — a bold call that (despite cutting the price target to $125 from $146) claims up to 40% upside. The committee, which owns the stock, is split and frustrated. Jim Lebenthal thinks streaming is now a "crown jewel" (it went from losing money to earning ~$2 billion a year), and blames the stagnant stock on geopolitics, theme-park prices getting too high, and weak movie releases — though host Scott Wapner pushes back hard (Marriott and airlines are doing fine, so why not Disney?).

Joe Terranova, who bought in around $103 and isn't happy, says Disney has an "identity crisis" and a worse balance sheet than five years ago, with shareholder activism the only thing that's ever moved the stock. Sarat Sethi sees cash-rich assets that aren't being used well and wants a catalyst — possibly a merger. Both note ESPN is under-leveraged. Net: a frustrated hold waiting for a catalyst.

ORCL — Oracle Neutral

Oracle sells business software and, increasingly, cloud computing for AI. The stock just hit a new 52-week low. Sarat Sethi owns it: he sold about half after last year's big pop and is holding the rest, still believing Oracle can complete its transition into a cloud powerhouse — but the market is giving it "no credit" while it spends heavily to get there, like the other big AI spenders. It's painful, but he's holding.

Jim Lebenthal offers a technical reason for the recent slide: a flood of huge corporate bond sales (from Amazon and SpaceX, among others) is more than the debt market can easily absorb, pushing borrowing costs up across the board. Because Oracle has borrowed heavily to build its data centers, it gets caught in that "indigestion."


Summary derived from the public CNBC Halftime Report audio episode (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © CNBC for source material.