Title: The September Setup: The Investment Committee's Strategy 9/1/26 Show: CNBC Halftime Report (podcast of the live noon ET show) Host: Scott Wapner + Investment Committee — Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe, Josh Brown Guest: CNBC's Michael Santoli (midday word, at Post 9); Oliver Renick (Options Action, from Cboe Global Markets, Chicago); Frank Holland (CNBC News Update); Eamon Javers (Washington, DC — Iran/CENTCOM update) Date: 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) URL: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2c9NzuKjnrc350OTfi84Hy Length: 47:23 Note: Spotify auto-generated transcript (accuracy may vary); this is an AUDIO podcast — the Spotify panel carries NO (mm:ss) cues, so there are no timestamps anywhere in this file and the analysis page's "At" cells are plain "listen" links to the episode. MERGED FROM THIRTEEN CAPTURES: Spotify's transcript panel is virtualized, so the episode was scraped in 13 overlapping window pulls and spliced here in order (pull_01 → pull_02 → pull_03a → pull_03a2 → pull_03b → pull_03c → pull_03d → pull_03e → pull_03f → pull_03g → pull_04 → pull_05 → pull_06). At each seam the repeated passage was de-duplicated (the largest overlaps were the "Momentum itself gets a little bit of a recovery rebound" line between pulls 01/02, the Dell "up 248% since our original write up" line between pulls 04/05, and the whole Azure/Microsoft answer between pulls 05/06). Spotify page chrome and the capture bracket-notes were stripped. Coverage runs continuously from the cold open to the closing disclaimer; NO GAPS were found and NOTHING WAS INVENTED to bridge a seam. Speaker diarization was numeric only ("Speaker N") and the numbering resets per capture, so speakers were inferred from context and relabelled: 1 = Scott Wapner, 2 = Joe Terranova, 3 = Stephanie Link, 4 = Jason Snipe, 5 = Josh Brown. Spotify reuses "Speaker 2" for remote guests, so the midday-word block is relabelled [Michael Santoli], the Iran update [Eamon Javers], and the options block [Oliver Renick] (whose speech alternated between "Speaker 2" and "Speaker 5" mid-sentence and is merged here). Frank Holland's news update carried no label and was labelled from context. The closing disclaimer voiceover is not a panelist and is left unlabelled. Spotify chapter headings are kept as == section == markers. Fillers ("you know", "I mean" where contentless) and stutters removed; obvious ASR name/number mangles corrected: "Roebner"->Rubner (Scott Rubner, Citadel Securities), "Stephanie Lee"->Stephanie Link, "Jason Stipe"->Jason Snipe, "Regency bias"->recency bias, "they have APR problem"->they have a PR problem, "Jensen Wang"->Jensen Huang, "Nikesh Aurora"->Nikesh Arora, "the verd of the GE Vernova"->the Vertiv, the GE Vernova, "potish"->potash, "nutrient"/"Nutrient"->Nutrien, "Cortiva"->Corteva, "Intrepid Potholes"->Intrepid Potash, "Lyondell, Bozell"->LyondellBasell, "CFCNH and deer"->CF, CNH and Deere, "Terra Nova Capital Management"->Terranova Capital Management, "Robin Hood"->Robinhood, "Joe T ticker symbol"->JOET ticker symbol, "Amon"->Eamon (Javers), "amph it all"/"Amphenol Aph"->Amphenol (APH), "SIBO"->Cboe, "John Turnus"->John Ternus, "this sock"/"the socket"->this stock/the stock, "Young Yuma"->Yung-Yu Ma, "VIX under 15475 on 10s"->VIX under 15, 4.75 on 10s (the ASR ran two numbers together), "A595705 spread"->a 595-705 spread, "six, 10725"->a 610-725. Genuinely ambiguous garbles are left as spoken — notably Stephanie Link's final trade, which the ASR renders "Selby" (read on the analysis page as SLB / Schlumberger, on the strength of the 8.5x-EBITDA acquisition announced the prior session and Wapner's immediate pivot to oil; the identification is inferred, not stated). Wording otherwise verbatim. == Setting Up Portfolios for the September Market == I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC Halftime Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. All right, guys, thank you very much. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Scott Wapner front and center this hour, the September setup for stocks, yields, the momentum trade. They are both in focus. We trade all of it with the committee joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jason Snipe, Josh Brown, take you to the markets. Here we are beginning a new month, one that you all know by now is traditionally unkind to you. See what happens now, Dow, by the way, up 15 of the past 16 months. How about this stat? In the past almost 100 years, the Dow's only been +15 of 16 months one other time, during a 19 for 20 streak all the way back in 35 and 36. All right, what's going to determine what happens this month? Yields check. Momentum check. So I would come to you: 10 year, highest since Jan of 25. Momentum's lower, chips are weaker. Momentum underperformed the S&P in August, S&P was up 2.6%, momentum was only up 0.3. And I bring you this one stat before I let you go. I said it yesterday, OK, the index momentum is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. It's tumbled more than 9% since July 1st. That lags behind the S&P's 2.8% gain. OK, that's a setup point. [Joe Terranova] Setup. I think the setup for September and the message for the viewers is as follows. Quality over the current quarter, while momentum has been down double digits, quality has actually been up 1 1/2%. So the market has somewhere to retreat to. What I'm seeing in front of me now is last week's disappointment surrounding the inability, in particular for high beta momentum, to get that shot of adrenaline off of Nvidia's earnings, the derivative trade, and off of Marvell's earnings. I think that's leading to a significant amount of bearishness as it relates to sentiment. I think the sentiment is beginning to turn and I actually believe that's the first thing that you want to see if in fact you are going to reach a bottom for a factor. [Scott Wapner] You mean sentiment turning? [Joe Terranova] Overall towards the more. [Scott Wapner] Cautious. [Joe Terranova] Yes, I think people are recognizing what we have described over the last several weeks, the momentum factor's underperforming, the disappointment for the lack of that shot of adrenaline last week. And when sentiment finally turns, that actually is the moment where you don't want to get too bearish. So I think the setup potentially is that high beta momentum, momentum itself, gets a little bit of a recovery rebound here in the near term. Watch the semis. The semis are showing a little bit of strength here intraday. Micron I believe is higher as we speak. That's going to be my indicator. But I would not get too bearish right now on the fact that momentum has had this ugly quarter. [Scott Wapner] OK, so the cautious cavalry has arrived. That's a fact because, to Joe's point, Citadel, Scott Rubner, Citadel Securities, OK, I follow what he says and when he says it and so do a lot of other people on the street. He says the near term risk reward has changed, points to the following: earnings delivered and are now largely behind us. Retail remains a buyer but historically becomes a smaller source of incremental demand in September. Systematic exposure has rebuilt. The corporate bid should fade as the blackout window returns. And after a significant collapse in volatility, that tailwind is now largely behind us. So you take all that in total and then he goes one step further and says the following. And I quote, I would use strength to reduce some exposure and add inexpensive protection into this event window. I'm not looking for the beginning of a broader bearish turn. I am looking for a tactical reset. If September delivers one, it could create a better entry point as we move toward a potential more constructive setup beginning around mid-October. == Embracing Volatility for New Investment Opportunities == Stephanie Link. [Stephanie Link] Boy, OK, on average over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 in September is down 2.7%. However, October reverses that trend and on average it's up 2.8% and in November it's up 3.9%. If you want to be tactical, that's fine. If you're a good day trader or a week trader or a month trader, that's fine by me. That's not what I'm after. I am actually looking for the volatility in September to add to some of the positions that I have already been adding to and maybe there's some new opportunities. [Scott Wapner] You hope that things get a little more volatile. You get a little back and you have a window to buy some things that you'd like to add to. [Stephanie Link] Yeah, yeah. And I think it's really interesting that while momentum has corrected, value has outperformed growth the year to date by 14%. I think a lot of that does have to do with the valuations, number one. Number two, it's higher interest rates, right? And so the question is, why do you think rates are going higher? And I know we have debated this a lot of times here. It's obviously elevated inflation, its debt issuance, its deficit concerns globally. But I also think it's better growth, Scott. And again today we got some solid economic data that points to solid growth. The JOLTS number, now you have one job available per one unemployed person. That's a good thing. JOLTS on itself was up 3%, ISM manufacturing was up eight quarters in eight months in a row. So I just think the economy is doing fine. We're going to have some volatility. Embrace it, don't try and time it and just look for opportunities. [Scott Wapner] OK, now I mentioned cavalry, right? Because one person doesn't make up a cavalry, because there are others that I need to mention to you today. JP Morgan's trading desk. They're moving to a more tactically cautious neutral view. OK. That's them. Wells Fargo. We're turning cautious on equities, raising peak AI CapEx fears, and we'll get into more on AI and CapEx and the data center debate and all of those issues that we think are having an impact on that trade. What do you think? Is it time to join the cavalry, get on your horse and ride it in, be a little more cautious? What do you think? [Jason Snipe] So I don't think so. It's interesting, I didn't go 100 years back, but I did go 75 years back. And when I look at September since 1950, the two catalysts that I think are important to note here, one is the market's up 12% here today, right? Five of the 10 best Septembers since 1950 had been when the market is heading into strength into September, and also in midterm election years, which obviously we have. So maybe there's a soft spot to Steph's point, we're not tactical traders by any stretch. We're long investors only. That's our story. If you're trying to be cute and want to mess around and maybe take off some, you can do that. I don't have anything against that. But I do believe again 86% beat rate from an earnings perspective, 50% growth for the S&P. This is a constructive story going forward. So if this is a soft patch and you want to add exposure, that's something I would likely do in this situation scenario. == Why Tactical September Trading Misses the Mark == [Scott Wapner] So Josh, you take all of it in total and how do you formulate your own view for what you see in the markets ahead? [Josh Brown] I'm reminded of the great Damon Wayans who famously said in character as Homie the Clown, Homie don't play that. I know very few professional money managers who are attempting to make a tactical sale on September 1st because it's September and then get back in October for a better setup. So if you did that last year, the train left without you. And it's very nice for somebody to say, well, in 61% of all Septembers the market the first two weeks goes down. OK, how do you know when you're in the 61 versus the 39? Are you going to tell me that? If you're not going to tell me that, then I'm not whipping positions around and generating taxable gains for my clients. And then my answer to them when the S&P is plus 6% before we buy back: well, it was September. So I think a lot of this seasonality stuff is helpful context and then a lot of it sort of delves into this world where it's astrology for middle-aged men. And you will not find, in my experience, people who have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients making trades based on the time of the year. What I will tell you. [Scott Wapner] Hold on one real quick, let me just interject one thing and I'll come back to you and give you the mic back. This feels to me that it's not so much a calendar issue, but a calculation that, as Rubner says, OK, earnings are great, but we've now lost that as a catalyst because we're in a window where there are no earnings. You don't have the corporate bid because you'll get into a blackout window. That has nothing to do necessarily with OK, September looms. You haven't had much volatility at all. The VIX was like at 13 or 14 not that long ago, but that could return. You could also have, as JP Morgan notes today, that the MAG 7 are likely to keep experiencing ROI anxiety, which is why they're a little more cautious. Now you have the data center issue as well. This seems to me to be far more than putting your thumb up in the air and saying, well, it's September now, so let's get cautious. [Josh Brown] Yeah, those are all very good points and I'm glad you brought them back up. The overarching point though is that the market knows this and has already been adjusting. Do you know that momentum as a factor actually peaked relative to the S&P on June 22nd? We are now 51 days past the peak of momentum's outperformance. Momentum is down 13.7% since then, with the S&P up 2.4%. That is 16.1 percentage points of momentum factor relative underperformance. So this is not something that's about to happen. This has been taking place all summer and I would argue this has been spectacular for investor portfolios. We had this incredible wave of stocks that did not participate in the momentum rally and Stephanie owns those stocks and so does Jason and so does Joe. We've had this huge wave of stocks coming in and picking up the slack. Look at the healthcare rally. It's unbelievable. I got energy stocks. So this idea that the market wide momentum is in a downtrend and that therefore that's not constructive for investors, I just don't buy the premise. I actually like that momentum has cooled off. And the last thing I want to say about this is let's not fall prey to the recency bias. What have you done for me lately? The reality is that peak in momentum happened after a historic momentum versus everything else run the likes of which we haven't seen. You have to go back a very long time to find a period of time where momentum had outperformed by 24%. It outperformed the S&P going into that peak. So Scott, I like the setup. I want there to be index level weakness because it's benefiting this catch up trade as people look for OK, if that's not working well, what is. [Scott Wapner] I like the perspective. JP Morgan today puts forth another perspective that I think plays right off of what Josh is saying and does it quite well. It's reassuring, they say, that despite big falls in the momentum factor in June and July, broad equity indices are holding near their highs. We believe that downside risk to overall market from this should be easing in any case, as the momentum unwind is largely complete. Same thought, different voice. What do you say? [Joe Terranova] I think I go back to the opening sentences where I said quality in this quarter has actually been up 1 1/2%, so capital has a place to retreat to. I think the very nature of what we do on this show is to try and set an expectation. And sometimes that involves understanding what's going on in the near term. You might wake up one day and your throat feels really sore. You go to the doctor, the doctor tells you, OK, this is over the next two weeks going to be something you're going to have to manage and deal with, but you're going to be fine, versus going to the doctor and finding out something far more ominous is going on with your throat for the long term. And I think that is what we're trying to identify right now right here. The momentum factor in this quarter has had a very natural but yet violent correction based off significant outperformance from January 1st through June 22nd. That does not equate to some form of message for the remainder of the year that says all of the equity indices are going to roll over. Think of everything that we're actually enduring right now, higher oil prices, treasury yields moving to multi year highs, and yet the construction of the market is remaining strong. == Navigating the Political Headwinds for AI Data Centers == So I think that's the message first and foremost. And as it relates to that momentum factor, I'm telling you what I'm seeing in front of me right now. If people are now clamoring and sentiment is getting overwhelmed, seemingly bearish, don't. Don't join that party, OK? [Scott Wapner] So the data center issue, Wells Fargo sees a moratorium as a big risk to the AI trade. And that holds, I think, some keys to how September is going to go. PIMCO says of data centers, quote, we're likely to see more action at the local level, including possibly more statewide moratoriums. You have a problem when conservative Texas Governor Greg Abbott and socialist Senator Bernie Sanders agree on the same issue, right? That's sort of what the polling represents. It's not partisan, it's a non partisan issue. Seems like a growing number of people don't want anything to do with data centers in their communities. [Stephanie Link] I think that's silly. [Scott Wapner] You make that. [Stephanie Link] This is at the state level, the federal government is very supportive. I think the existing. [Scott Wapner] What do you think is silly? [Stephanie Link] I think it's silly that we're making such a big deal about data centers, the build out in general. What you just talked about, we're talking about the government getting involved in the data centers and where they're going to be built and where they're not. And the states, some states, that's about 11 states, don't want or have moratoriums. The federal government is very supportive. What's silly is that you're going to see existing builds in existing states that are allowing it to happen. And I think actually that it is going to lead to a longer cycle because you're not going to have a boom bust in every single state and all this sold out. So I think it'll be more controlled. I think the hyperscalers have done a terrible job at explaining why they are building these data centers. Number one, it leads to growth. Number two, more jobs. Number three, better taxes. So they're not doing a good job explaining it. The growth piece is really interesting because Elon Musk today said that AI and robotics, it could double the economy in the next five to seven years. He said it today. I kind of take him for his word. He's a genius. And I think that there's so much momentum here. And how does NVIDIA guide from 45% revenue growth by fiscal 28 to 70% if they think that no data centers are going to be built? [Scott Wapner] Maybe they're underestimating how severe and strong and durable the backlash may be. Wall Street Journal editorial page today, the data center panic and US decline. That's the title of a piece. Morgan Stanley just this morning before we came on the air today, put out a new note trying to address this whole issue and what they think is going to happen. They, like Stephanie, are focusing on the federal side. Federal policy remains supportive of data center construction, permitting, power generation and associated energy infrastructure, but they lay out some of the consequences. The more likely consequence, a quote, conditional build out rather than broad CapEx destruction. They're looking at a trillion dollars in CapEx, right? So you're going to get maybe a slower, as you say, build out, but do you think in some respects people have been buying these stocks based on what they think is going to happen in the nearer term? Now if you move the goal posts on them and you say, well, okay, it's actually still going to happen, we think, but it's going to be a much more drawn out affair. Can you pay the same thing today for a stock that you would have if I told you the goal posts have moved? [Stephanie Link] I wouldn't. I think this is over a decade long theme. I think you're going to see hyperscalers continue to spend. That is your point to watch. If they start slowing spend dollar wise, not percentage wise, because we know they're not going to grow 75% year over year growth in their CapEx every year like they did this year. But if you're going to see 1.1 trillion this year, 1.6 trillion the following year, 2 trillion the following year, that is very supportive for the long term. And I will be patient on that theme because you are seeing enormous visibility from the companies that are building out all these data centers in terms of the backlogs. And that to me is the thing that I want to pay now for because of that visibility, because it's going to lead to more durable earnings for many of the industrial companies. [Joe Terranova] So if I could set an expectation for the next 60 days, and I think it speaks squarely to the positions that I have, the Vertiv, the GE Vernova, I do think the headlines will be very intense. I do think that as a result of that sentiment will remain slightly bearish in the near term surrounding the industrial trade. You could take the other side of it. And I agree with that, Stephanie, but I think you have to understand this isn't going away. Will it go away? Yes, it'll probably go away at midnight on November 4th. So that's probably when it's going to go away. [Scott Wapner] No, it's not going to go away. Why would it go away just because Election Day is over? [Joe Terranova] Because do you think there'll actually be federal legislation that could be passed that'll go to the president's desk and he's going to sign it, even if the Democrats were to take the House and the Senate? [Scott Wapner] Why does it have to go to the federal level? I mean, states do have their own. [Joe Terranova] Campaign season's over, have to be elected, all right? Campaign season is over, all that means. [Scott Wapner] All that means is that the politicians aren't going to politic, OK. [Joe Terranova] So now it. [Scott Wapner] Doesn't mean that people's opinions have changed. [Joe Terranova] But now it comes down to actual legislation. Are we actually going to get legislation, or is it just going to be someone with a loud voice screaming the loudest? Tell me if there's actually going to be legislation, by the way, over the next 60 days. I still think the market might concentrate in the direction of the hyperscalers if in fact there's this belief, well maybe there's not going to be the amount of spending that has been intended. [Stephanie Link] Spending, Joe, please, if you listen to any of those companies, any of the management teams, they want to spend more and you know that. [Joe Terranova] I'll finish my sentence. I agree that they will continue to spend. I'm just setting the expectation of what I see in front of us over the next 60 days. That perception might be there. You take the other side of it. [Scott Wapner] Morgan Stanley goes on, let me just read this Morgan Stanley thing, which they go on because it plays to what we're talking about. And then you got the mic. They say the midterms are an important signal, not necessarily the inflection point. So they see the elections revealing which anti data center policies resonate with voters and potentially laying the groundwork for broader restrictions. But thinks material federal policy risk is more likely after the 2028 elections. In other words, the issue is not going away anytime soon. The mic is yours. [Josh Brown] Yeah, and I agree with that. I do think Joe is right. It's going to reach a crescendo pitch and then the election will happen. And all of a sudden a lot of the grandstanding about this issue from all the politicians, it'll go silent because it'll no longer have a point. Once you either get elected or you don't get elected or whatever ends up happening, it'll quiet down. But I also agree, Scott, with what you just read and the fact that it'll probably never go away. This is just the reality of what it means to do business in this country. And I do think that the industry itself is going to get smarter. First of all, we're talking about the smartest people in the world, but they have a PR problem. Look at the figures that they've been putting forth as the face of AI. It's Elon Musk who's extraordinarily polarizing already and it's Sam Altman and that's just not going to work. So I do think that the more Michael Dell is out front, for example, the more Jensen Huang is out front actually speaking and making eye contact and saying rational things, the better the industry ultimately will be perceived. And the bigger issue is that everyone is adopting this technology now. I just spent back-to-back 2 hour long meetings with my people before coming on the show today talking about some of the AI things that we're incorporating into our business. Once you do that, nobody is ripping this stuff out and it'll dawn on the general public that AI is no different from electricity. Yeah, of course there are risk factors when you generate electricity. Of course there are risk factors when you're generating data inferencing, but we're not going backwards. So if this is a reason not to invest in stocks, I'll take the other side all day long. [Scott Wapner] So Jason Snipe, speaking of the industry, AI billionaire backed group launches pro data center ad blitz. So David Sacks, by the way, was on the network within the last hour or so and said the industry needs to do a better job getting out there and talking about the virtues of data centers, the jobs that they'll bring. The fact that the AI companies themselves want to be the power providers, that the impact on the communities that the politicians are leaning to aren't necessarily the case. Our only point here is that the issue is going to be an overhang, and it's going to be talked about and debated and Wall Street firms are going to put out notes about it at least until the midterms, if not beyond. [Jason Snipe] There's no doubt about it, and I think the most salient point that Steph mentioned is the communication has not been good. It has not been good on explaining what the potential benefits will be to this infrastructure, AI infrastructure build out. That is the issue because legislation will always follow capital, right, $1 trillion in CapEx this year, 1.6 trillion in CapEx next year. That is not slowing down whatsoever. So my perspective is, yes, Scott, I do think the conversation continues post election, but the voices start to lower, right, because I do think there will be a renewed focus on the benefits and pros to putting these data centers in place and getting people new jobs. == Analyzing Palo Alto Networks' Earnings and Valuation == [Scott Wapner] Quick thing before we take a break, I want to hit Palo Alto. So still in tech but away from this direct conversation. The stock right now is down 6%. So cyber has been great lately. Palo Alto reports after the bell today, Nikesh Arora, CEO, is going to be on with Jim on Mad Money. So you got to listen to that, Steph. You trimmed it last week because the stock's up a lot. [Stephanie Link] It's up 100%. Yeah, it's up 145% since the April low. So I think it's going to be a great quarter. I think they have to do RPO is probably something like 33% growth, product revenues. The whisper number is 20 to 22%. You're going to see firewall strength. You're going to see software firewalls do well. You're going to see market share growth, total revenue growth of 32%, margin expansion. I think it's going to be a great quarter and I think guide is going to be too, especially since you're going to have M and A synergies. Just a little nervous about valuation and the fact that it's run up so much. [Joe Terranova] Record quarter, that's what I see in front of us. Q3, the revenue is what, 3 billion, Steph, you're looking at 3.35 billion in this quarter. You now have 11 straight quarterly revenue beats. The stock does not react well post earnings. If you go back over the last year, the stock tends to fall post earnings. So be prepared for that. Thematically, I think there's still fundamental strength surrounding the cyber security names. I wouldn't step away from that. I have no problem with Steph being tactical and taking a little bit off. That makes total sense given the stock's up 100%. But just kind of be aware this could be disappointment in terms of price. [Stephanie Link] I would buy it back if it's down a lot. Yes, because I do believe in the long term theme as well. But it got to be a 6% position in my portfolio, that's. [Scott Wapner] Too big. All right, all right. So we've made progress from yesterday. He did not front run the B block, which is great news, because when we come back, Joe has a move and he didn't even tease it in the A block, but I'm going to tease it now because he is making a move in something I think he said yesterday that he liked. So don't say anything. Don't say anything. Josh Brown's best stocks in the market are still ahead too. We'll do that when we come back. == Latest Headlines from the CNBC News Desk == [Frank Holland] Welcome back to Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland with your CNBC news update. Times Square became a crime scene on Monday when police say a woman pulled 2 kitchen knives from a shopping bag and attacked 2 strangers near an NYPD substation. A 32 year old woman died. A 68 year old man is now in stable condition. Officers ordered the attacker to drop those knives, then fatally shot her after a Taser failed to stop her and she advanced towards officers. A Postal Service whistleblower says a rushed, error prone computer system could disrupt mail voting ahead of midterm elections. The disclosure released by Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal says the system could reject entire batches of ballot mail if even 1 barcode fails to scan. Nearly 1/3 of American voters use mail in ballots. The Trump administration's related order to restrict mail in voting remains tied up in court. And after more than 250 straight days at sea, thousands of sailors and Marines aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln are finally getting shore leave in Thailand. The resort town of Pattaya is adding police patrols and warning businesses not to overcharge visitors. The carrier is scheduled to dock Wednesday before continuing its journey home. Scott, back over to you. == Investing in Ag Commodities with Nutrien Amidst El Nino == [Scott Wapner] All right. Thank you, Frank. That's Frank Holland. All right, let's get to this move. You said yesterday you were talking ag stocks, grain related names, food stocks, etcetera. You bought Nutrien. Tell me why. [Joe Terranova] So we're seeing a significant spike in commodities overall, in particular agriculture more recently. So if you're looking strength of momentum in the near term, yes, everyone's fully aware of what's going on in oil and the derivatives, but it's corn, it's wheat, it's soybeans, it's cotton, all up double digits and more in the month of August. I want to get exposure to potash. Potash is the cheapest of the nutrients that are needed for fertilizer companies. You could go in the direction of nitrogen or phosphate. That's more expensive. Nutrien is the largest retail producer of potash itself. They're improving their balance sheet significantly. They are increasing their free cash flow. They are already messaging that they will be returning more capital to shareholders. I'll tell you this, the stock in the near term, if you're worried about the near term, it's extended. So I might have reached for it here slightly. I'll buy some more in a pullback because thematically I want the exposure to agriculture. Last point, remember we have the forecast for a significant El Nino weather event that is going to affect global food supplies, that benefits names like Nutrien, like Corteva and like Intrepid Potash. [Scott Wapner] Did you happen to notice Jonathan Krinsky's note from BTIG? Wondering who was on this thing first, Terranova Capital Management or BTIG? Here's what Krinsky says. OK, let's hear it. While most eyes continue to be on energy commodities, the ag commodities are likely to get more attention. The Invesco DB Agriculture ETF, that's the DBA, is up four straight days, up 13% on the month and breaking out to fresh highs, multi year highs. They're constructive on Nutrien, LyondellBasell, CF, CNH and Deere. [Joe Terranova] Can I real quick on CF, because someone in my office said, well, why didn't you go back to CF? If you remember in early March, the onset of the conflict, that's the first place I went. I don't want to manage the risk around the volatility of the Strait is open, the Strait of Hormuz is open, the Strait is not open, because there is a strong correlation to where price goes for CF Industries there. Great ag name, OK, that's a name you could own, but remember, you're going to endure the volatility of what the political dynamic is. That's why I didn't go there. [Scott Wapner] Was somebody questioning the trade in your office? [Joe Terranova] You always want that, and what I know is every day that I'm here, you do that for me and all of us. [Scott Wapner] OK. All right, that sounded sincere. That's. [Joe Terranova] The point of the show? [Scott Wapner] OK. [Joe Terranova] Challenge. [Scott Wapner] Almost 15, 15 years, almost next month. Stay tuned. Stay tuned. == Examining Robinhood and Airbnb with Rules-Based Strategies == All right, let's talk Robinhood, call of the day. Upgraded to overweight from equal weight, 150 is the new target at Morgan Stanley. You sold that though. [Joe Terranova] That's a bad job. [Scott Wapner] Analyst or you? [Joe Terranova] No, that's the ETF. That's the rules based ETF, JOET ticker symbol. It's a bad job. Got out of it lower than it is here. You got a spike in Bitcoin after the rebalance on July 31st. Robinhood went along with that spike in Bitcoin. Bottom line is look, it is what? [Scott Wapner] It is do a bad job if it's a rules based thing. You have a choice. [Joe Terranova] Look, when you sell it out significantly lower than where it is, you look back and it's like striking out three times in a game. You can't wash that away. You struck out three times. It's a bad job. You're going to make mistakes. That's this business. [Scott Wapner] What about Airbnb, called a buy today at Rosenblatt, Josh, 220's the target. You couldn't believe that it popped up on your best stocks in the market list last week, but I guess it deserves to be there. [Josh Brown] So this is the flip side of that coin. What Joe is describing, you have a rules based strategy and sometimes it forces you to take a small loss or take an early profit and then the market makes that look stupid, but it's probabilities. This is the flip side of that coin. I would never, if you told me, should Airbnb be considered one of the best stocks in the market? I would say absolutely not. But pull the chart back. It's breaking out of this channel it's been stuck in since it came public. And that demands that you pay attention to it and try to figure out what's going on. Why is it all of a sudden breaking out? So that's where a rules based strategy can help you. It forces you to reconsider a stock that you have a bias against for one reason or another. This is clearly going to take out new highs. You can see the accumulation, you can see the rapidity with which it's run up this time and has not given back any ground even with the market down. I think that's the importance of having a system and a strategy rather than just waking up every day and saying what should I trade? So that's what the best stocks list is meant to surface. == Middle East Escalation and Its Impact on Markets == [Scott Wapner] OK. Will you tease your own segment because we're going to take a break and we're coming back with that, the best stocks? [Josh Brown] We've been so excited. [Scott Wapner] Yep, you're going to update risk management on two of the biggest winners that they've had. Details next. Want to show you stocks here which have taken a bit of a turn, even more negative than they've been. The Dow now down more than 400 points. That correlates here with a move in crude oil as well. Let's show you WTI, which is right around 90 bucks. Again, there's been some reporting in the last few moments of reports of blasts across Iran's southern regions. We'll go to Eamon Javers who can fill us in with more details. What do we know here, Eamon? [Eamon Javers] Scott, we now have confirmation from CENTCOM that the US military is engaged in strikes against targets in Iran. This crossing just a couple of moments ago, CENTCOM saying today at 12:00 PM Eastern, U.S. forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran. The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed in the region. Now, we saw that strike overnight on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, exiting the Strait of Hormuz. That was flagged by British authorities as a strike by an unknown entity on that commercial ship. Now we're seeing these responses from the United States against IRGC targets. No information from CENTCOM about which targets are being struck or how long this wave of attacks is expected to last. But obviously, Scott, this puts something of a monkey wrench in efforts to wind down the war in Iran as we see these repeated flare ups now where the United States feels it needs to respond to Iranian aggression in the Strait. But neither side seems to be able to assert total control over the Strait of Hormuz. Scott. [Scott Wapner] OK, Eamon, appreciate the update. Thanks very much, Eamon Javers from our Bureau down in Washington, DC. You can see the reaction obviously in the commodities market, WTI crude basically 90 bucks, there's Brent pushing at 94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, if we can give you one more shot of that as well, was down by more than 400 points. The market already watching the bond market quite closely. You can throw up the 10 year yield, we've said now at the highest level since January of 2025 as well. So all of these flash points really having an impact on the overall sentiment of the market as a historically rough month does get underway. == Josh Brown's Top Stock Picks: Amphenol and Dell == All right, we'll do best stocks in the market with Josh Brown. What do you have? [Josh Brown] We're going to do 2 today. Amphenol and Dell. We first talked to Amphenol. Both of these are data center plays and they are two of the biggest winners that we've done since we started this segment and the column. Amphenol, APH, on June 20th, we wrote about the company at $93 a share. It's up about 70% since then. They just reported the biggest quarter in the company's 94 year history, 8.8 billion in sales, which is up 55%, a record 29.8% adjusted operating margin, which is itself 420 basis points. So you have rapidly growing sales and rapidly growing operating margin and when you get that combination, of course you're going to get a stock that works. We first talked about this as a data center play that people weren't thinking about. Obviously that's changed. Everybody understands data centers with 33% of sales. We wrote it up last summer, now it's up to 43% and it is obviously the fastest growing part of the company's business. We updated our stop. We want to use 145 for investors, that's that rising 200 day. It's been rising all year. A weekly closing price below somewhat changes the bullishness here, but there's a lot of room between here and there. And I think when you have a winner like this, you want to give it space. One important thing on that level, they're going to split two for one tomorrow, so all of those values will get cut in half. Adjust your risk management accordingly. We have a lot more about that at CNBC Pro. On Dell, this is one of the rare names you wrote up twice, monster home run. We wrote it up September 29th, 2025 and did a TV segment right after it rolled over. But we stuck with it and we came back and wrote it up again in March of 2026. This stock has been an absolute home run. It's done nothing but go up with very little variation. And here you see it's been consolidating those huge gains for a few months. I think it's going to break out again. 500 is that overhead resistance, which is not that far from here. It's a $434 stock. And this is a company that's going to report this week. So obviously tonight it reports a quarter that could change a lot overnight, but I think the fundamentals will be good and I think you want to continue to honor thy stops. I would say $400.00 on a closing basis is, if you're a trader, your line in the sand below that level. And again, the buyers need to step in there and if they don't, it tells you the sentiment has changed. If that does not happen, I think you want to be long Dell. The stock is I think up 248% since our original write up last September. [Scott Wapner] Wow. OK, let's hit Amphenol. Let's just go back to you on that name, Joe. [Joe Terranova] They have done a remarkable job in the early days of when we began to discover this innovation and the advancement of artificial intelligence, moving towards general intelligence, of building the relationships that's giving them the 50% plus growth right now. Scott, we took a position in this on November 17th of 2020, $31.75. We still hold that position today because they have delivered on every metric accordingly. [Scott Wapner] Well, let's back it up as close to that as we can get, 400. [Joe Terranova] Percent, I believe it's 400%. And what's the interesting thing about it is you think about a company like this and their participation in that staggering growth, it still has a reasonable valuation. It's a mid 30s valuation for a company that's giving you really consistent strong revenue growth on an annualized basis. [Scott Wapner] All right. Good stuff. Thanks to both of you for that. We'll take a break. == Michael Santoli on Testing the Market's Composure == We'll come back. Santoli midday word right on the other side. Senior markets commentator, Overtime co-anchor Michael Santoli is sitting down right here with us at Post 9. As we begin September, a reminder, the news that Eamon was just delivering to us, the escalation in the Middle East, yet another issue that we're going to just have to contend with. [Michael Santoli] Yeah. And it twists the dial in exactly the direction of the pressure that the market's been trying to absorb. So coming into the week you had VIX under 15, 4.75 on 10s was right in sight, obviously now you have oil toward 90. So all of these things are pressing against their range boundaries and you have the S&P 500 at the lows today at a four week low, which also is just right above that level which was the top of the prior range. So all this stuff feels like, all right, we're going to test the market's composure and its ability to rotate away from the vulnerable spots. The rates story's already taking something out of the consumer cyclicals and the industrials, both of those on an equal weighted basis are 7 or 8% below their highs, while the S&P 500 is well closer to a high. All these stocks that act as these kind of offsets defensively are working. So I don't think anything has changed trend wise, but it does show you that we're not far from that level where people have to say the equation has been changed. [Scott Wapner] What do you think about the Rubner Citadel Securities note today? [Michael Santoli] Been focused on that actually since his August note, which said that in September things might change because people are going to be more long the market. Yes, it's still constructive. People are not too far over their skis, but you lose some of the tailwinds. And I hate to defer to the seasonal stuff, but you have to acknowledge it. You have to reflect the fact that at least that's one thing that's in people's minds and on a small level could become almost self fulfilling because people feel like I have a chance to buy lower after the September, October turbulence hits. [Scott Wapner] Yeah, we'll see. I'll see you at three. Yeah. All right. Good stuff. Thanks. Mike Santoli, up next options action with Oliver Renick. He's following today notable activity in a big name from the tech space. We're back in 2. == Analyzing Microsoft's Options Trades and Analyst Upgrade == Let's play some options action in Chicago at the Cboe Global Markets. Oliver, what do you have today? [Oliver Renick] Hey Scott. Microsoft ended the summer with an explosive rally on earnings. But it's been stuck alongside the broad market the past several weeks. And that might be giving at least one mega bull some cold feet. In two of the biggest options trades of the day, it looks like someone closed out two bullish call spreads, a 595-705 spread worth $19,000,000 and a 610-725 worth about 17 million. The trade spanned more than 30,000 call contracts for a total credit of about $36 million. Now these were still very far out of the money contracts but they also were for December 2027 expiry. So it's interesting not just because they were two of the top three biggest trades on the entire tape today, but because they still had plenty of time to work, but the owner chose to bail instead on a day the stock is going against them. Scott. [Scott Wapner] Interesting, Oliver. Thank you. Oliver Renick, I'll see you at 3:00. Look forward to that. Jason Snipe, you do own Microsoft, target today to 600 from 500, reiterated buy, Bank of America. [Jason Snipe] Yeah. So I think for me on Azure, Azure is now a $100 billion business, right, just crossed over that in the last quarter. Azure revenue was up 43% year over year and copilot adoption is improving, 30 million paid seats. So I continue to like this stock. It's now positive on the year up around 4%. It obviously was in the dull to the previous to that, but I. [Scott Wapner] Until earnings, guys, what was the date of earnings? Can you guys in the control please, if we can do that, from earnings until today, right, earnings was the reset. This stock hadn't done anything and I feel like after they delivered the stock feels like it got that next leg that investors like you were looking for. I think on my 29th. [Jason Snipe] Yeah, yeah. And I think that the reason for the. [Scott Wapner] The significant update. Thank you guys. 27% right. [Jason Snipe] Was the copilot numbers right? Those were significant, but there needs to be, and they're going to remain cash flow positive, right. We heard from Amy on that. So I think that's going to be what's going to continue to push. The stock hasn't moved really that much since earnings. [Scott Wapner] But I do think you'll take 27%. So it's 500. They see it going to six. == Last-Minute Investment Insights on Apple and Selby == All right, good stuff. We'll take a break. We'll do finals. We got a down market. We'll see what the last hour does on closing bell, 3:00 Eastern Time today, Tom Lee, Malcolm Ethridge, Yung-Yu Ma and Jeff De Graaf. So I hope you will join me then for the closing bell. Josh Brown, what's your final trade? [Josh Brown] Scott Wapner, don't I always say pay attention to the stocks that are up, notably up on the down days for the market. Well, Apple is a very good case in point. They are accumulating this name, CEO just started. We're going to get a presentation on the foldable phone. Then we're going to get the 18. People want to be long this stock and they will probably take it through the record high of a few weeks ago. [Scott Wapner] What's interesting, Joe, is you picked this as well, didn't you? [Joe Terranova] Absolutely. That's why. [Scott Wapner] We picked it first on the list. You see how we did that? [Joe Terranova] Yes. And I think it's a validation of John Ternus. It really is. I think a lot of people expected on the first day that Tim Cook steps away. Tim. [Scott Wapner] Cook. [Joe Terranova] Tim Cook, I know I had a problem. [Scott Wapner] That's OK. From here I helped you out, OK? [Joe Terranova] So Tim Cook steps away first day, I think a lot of. [Scott Wapner] People, you didn't say Tim Apple. He could have said that, yeah. [Joe Terranova] Oh, no, don't go. They couldn't do that. Anticipated a fall in the stock. [Scott Wapner] Jay, what do you got? Final trade. [Jason Snipe] Revenue was up 40% and record EPS. I continue to like this one. [Scott Wapner] The Linkster. [Stephanie Link] Selby, I really like this acquisition they did yesterday, 8.5 times EBITDA. [Scott Wapner] OK, yeah, that's another story we're obviously watching today, too. That move higher in oil, higher in yields, lower in stocks. We'll see at 3. == Concluding Remarks and Important Disclaimers == The exchange begins now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC. All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. 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