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CNBC Halftime Report — Debate: Is a Hike Coming?

Two hours before Warsh's first decision, with a hike priced at ~93%, the 10-year just under 5% and mortgages above 7.2%, the committee agrees they go — and disagrees about why. Joe Terranova says bond shorts and a collapsing consumer-discretionary tape (38 of 47 names lagging) mean the market will "accept rather comfortably" a hike; Steve Weiss took off some hedges and says a supply shock can't be fixed "with 25 basis points"; Jim Lebenthal reads Jackson Hole literally and warns that not hiking would spike yields and "crater the equity markets"; Jenny Harrington notes seven cuts took the 10-year up from 3.73% to 5% and says Warsh must show "he is not a muppet." Steve Liesman coins "one and mum"; Mike Santoli calls not hiking "an act of hostility" on a market priced 90% for it. Beyond the Fed: Meta is up ~18% in September as Zuckerberg sides with Jensen Huang against Anthropic/OpenAI's slowdown call; Terranova makes his sixth Apple buy; Weiss sees "no there there" in crypto after the Senate cloture vote failed; J.B. Hunt's diesel warning is Terranova's "bookmark today" moment while Lebenthal says energy stocks "are going to make a lot of money." Final trades: Schwab (Harrington), Cleveland-Cliffs (Lebenthal), UnitedHealth and FTAI (Weiss).
2026-SEP-16 · CNBC Halftime Report (audio edition, FOMC day) · host Scott Wapner; committee Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Jim Lebenthal, Steve Weiss; Steve Liesman, Julia Boorstin, Al Michaels, Mike Santoli, Oliver Renick; Rick Rieder clip · ~44 min · ▶ Listen · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: Everyone expected the hike; the useful part is how each member planned for being wrong. Weiss trimmed hedges because a priced event rarely moves the index; Lebenthal and Harrington both argue the asymmetric risk is a no-hike (the market would read it as "the Fed knows something really bad"); Terranova watches whether yields fall on the hike as the market's verdict that one is enough (Yellen's December-2015 template). Harrington's "yawn and wander" — the S&P has sat at ~7,600 since June 2 and will until Q3 outlooks — frames the stock calls, which are about company-specific tells rather than the Fed: Meta's free cash flow and founder-led AI strategy, Apple's reclaimed post-earnings loss, AstraZeneca's trial-driven pullback, and the first earnings casualty of $6 diesel at J.B. Hunt. Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Panel = CNBC's investment committee; "View" is the panel's net take this episode and the cell names which member(s) held it. This is an audio podcast and the Spotify transcript carried no (mm:ss) cues and no named speaker labels (only numeric "Speaker N" markers, mapped from context) — so each "At" cell simply opens the episode and the talking points below are plain segment headings rather than timestamps. Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat the committee saidAt
METAMeta PlatformsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHarrington owns it; Weiss calls Zuckerberg the best-placed AI navigator. Boorstin: shares up ~18% in September after Zuckerberg opposed Amodei and Altman's call for a frontier-model slowdown and regulation ("trust and alignment are quickly becoming the most important capabilities"); Citi reiterates Buy on product cadence and a clearer AI road map. Harrington: the safety stance "doesn't have any impact on my investment thesis" — "huge free cash flow generative," significant earnings growth, out from under the youth-safety overhang. Weiss: "Mark Zuckerberg is the only one that still has the founders mentality" among the public AI spenders.listen↗
AAPLAppleQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveTerranova's sixth consecutive purchase since late March — a technical buy. After July earnings the stock sold off from ~$330, then made higher lows; after the 9 Sept event it "challenged the 100 day moving average at 309. It held exactly there" and has recovered the post-earnings loss — "looking for it to break out to an all time high above 345." Morgan Stanley's Woodring: iPhone 18 lead times flat y/y "is actually a good start."listen↗
AZNAstraZenecaQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal agrees with UBS that the pullback is over. The drop came on a failed heart-drug trial ~two months ago; "with a quality pharmaceutical company like this that has… a very full pipeline, it's a time to buy" — attractively priced, good dividend yield, in a space "that does well regardless of what rates do."listen↗
CLFCleveland-CliffsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal (called out by Al Michaels) sees a turnaround, and makes it his final trade. Management guides to "over 3 billion in EBITDA" next year; a very good last quarter, and "if they have a good quarter this quarter… I think they come out of the penalty box" — hot-rolled coil "well over 1200. They make a lot of money at that." Weiss: from the 1-yard line with 99 to go to "the 10 yard line with 90 to go."listen↗
XOMExxonMobilQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal's lead energy name. "Energy stocks are going to make a lot of money for the rest of this year. We're going to be refilling inventories across the globe for months and quarters to come." ExxonMobil "still is not at the peak that it was at back in March. It's attractively priced."listen↗
CVXChevronQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal: same call as Exxon. "Say the same thing about Chevron. This is just obvious here." Inventory refill after the conflict keeps the majors earning "for a long time."listen↗
LNGCheniere EnergyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed in Lebenthal's energy list ("these Cheniere[s]") — stocks "going to be making a lot of money for a long time" as global inventories are rebuilt.listen↗
FANGDiamondback EnergyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed in Lebenthal's energy list ("these Fangs") alongside Exxon, Cheniere and Transocean as long-duration beneficiaries of the inventory refill.listen↗
RIGTransoceanQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNamed in Lebenthal's energy list ("these Transocean") — the offshore-drilling expression of the same refill thesis.listen↗
SCHWCharles SchwabQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHarrington's final trade. "Schwab trades at 14 times earnings, has 20% plus earnings growth ahead. It's the kind of stock that you can literally hold forever in your portfolio."listen↗
UNHUnitedHealth GroupQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveWeiss's final trade. "It's been a rough time lately, but I think it's on its way to recovery."listen↗
FTAIFTAI AviationQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveWeiss's bonus final trade. FTAI "announced a large buy back. The stock has been trashed."listen↗
GSGoldman SachsQT · SA · STK · FANeutralWeiss owns it but it "just hasn't performed that well" — he blames "talk of delaying IPOs and a slowdown in the AI spending." A steeper curve helps banks and insurers, but if yields fall on the hike "you just don't know what's going to happen"; rate hikes will hit non-financial, non-AI earnings and lending appetite — "a mixed bag."listen↗
JPMJPMorgan ChaseQT · SA · STK · FANeutralWapner cites BofA's bank note. Hikes give asset-sensitive banks a modest EPS and margin boost, though a flattening curve could challenge the stocks; BofA liked what JPMorgan said at this week's conferences. Terranova also notes a JPMorgan report on heavy bond short positioning.listen↗
CCitigroupQT · SA · STK · FANeutralIn the same BofA note — Citigroup's conference commentary also well received. Citi's strategists separately call the hike reaction "wobble, then climb."listen↗
XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDRQT · SA · STKNeutralRenick: options traders keep fading big oil moves. XLE volume 70% above usual, more than twice as many puts as calls, nine of the top 10 contracts puts; heavy buying of the 57-strike puts a month out ("needs XLE to drop 12% to pay off"), with some same-day 65-strike call buying — "the activity does lean bearish long term." The committee's own energy view (Lebenthal) is bullish, hence Neutral net.listen↗
USOUnited States Oil FundQT · SA · STKNeutralRenick: USO options also lean bearish on the day oil sold off — "pretty amazing how consistently we see options traders fading big moves in oil."listen↗
ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineQT · SA · STK · FANeutralTerranova: down in sympathy with J.B. Hunt. "We also have… Old Dominion Freight. Stocks are down across the board, but do not dismiss this." A watch item for fuel-cost earnings degradation, not a sell call.listen↗
JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport ServicesQT · SA · STK · FANegativeTerranova holds it (bought end of July at $271 for his ETF) but won't add. "$6 diesel we need to bookmark today and revisit it. Is this the beginning of hearing the story about earnings degradation across the board attributable to rising energy costs?" The CFO's 5–10% earnings cut on diesel and driver costs is "troubling… I don't advocate stepping in here and buying it. I think you need stability."listen↗
BTCBitcoinQT · STKNegativeWeiss after the Senate crypto cloture vote failed. "There's no there there in my view. I'm yet to see a business case… that makes sense… despite the decade they've been talking about them." Banks are coming for share with tokens and stablecoins, so "it's going to remain a trading vehicle. And I think the bias is lower" while Trump's crypto gains make candidates wary. Wapner framed it around Coinbase, Robinhood and Strategy; Weiss's answer covers the whole complex.listen↗

2. Talking points

The open: is a hike coming?

Lebenthal and Harrington: the risk is not hiking

Steve Liesman: why Warsh should hike — "one and mum"

Market reaction templates

Zuckerberg joins the AI-safety debate

Al Michaels: Thursday Night Football, team valuations, AI voices

Apple, crypto and AstraZeneca

Santoli's Market Memo

Options Action and the diesel warning

News update

Final trades

3. In plain English

META — Meta Platforms Positive

Meta owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp and makes most of its money from ads. It is spending heavily on AI, but unlike some rivals it throws off a lot of spare cash after paying for that spending, which is what Harrington cares about.

This week Mark Zuckerberg said AI companies should police themselves rather than slow down under new rules. The panel sees that as consistent with his goal of owning the whole consumer AI experience, and Weiss thinks a founder still running the company makes Meta the best placed of the big spenders.

AAPL — Apple Positive

Terranova's case is mostly about the chart. After Apple's July earnings the stock fell, then kept making higher lows. A "100-day moving average" is the average price over the last 100 trading days; when a falling stock stops right at that line and bounces, traders read it as buyers stepping in. Apple did that at about $309 and has since made back the whole post-earnings drop, so he is betting on a new all-time high above $345.

CLF — Cleveland-Cliffs Positive

Cleveland-Cliffs is a US steelmaker that has disappointed investors for a long time ("in the penalty box"). Steel prices are now high — hot-rolled coil, a basic sheet steel, is above $1,200 a ton — and management expects more than $3 billion of operating profit before depreciation next year. Lebenthal's point is that one good quarter doesn't win investors back but two in a row can, and the next report comes at the end of October.

XOM — ExxonMobil Positive

With the Middle East conflict disrupting supply, countries and companies have drawn down their stored oil and fuel. Lebenthal's argument is that once the fighting ends, the world has to buy back months of inventory, which keeps demand and prices firm for a long time. Big integrated producers like Exxon and Chevron benefit, and Exxon's shares are still below their March high even though that story hasn't changed.

JBHT — J.B. Hunt Negative

J.B. Hunt is one of the largest US trucking and freight companies. Its trucks burn diesel, which has hit record prices, and it told investors that fuel and driver costs will cut this quarter's profit by 5–10%. The stock fell hard. Terranova still owns it but won't buy more until things stabilize, and he is treating the warning as a possible first sign that high energy costs will start eating into profits across many industries.

BTC — Bitcoin Negative

A Senate vote needed to move a crypto bill forward failed, and money flowed out of crypto. Weiss has never seen a real-world use that justifies the hype, and he thinks banks issuing their own digital tokens and stablecoins will take the useful parts. In his view that leaves Bitcoin as something people trade rather than use, with prices more likely to drift down.


Summary derived from the public CNBC Halftime Report audio episode (transcript in transcript.txt, read from the Spotify transcript panel in a single pull after reading past its content-visibility virtualization) for personal study. Not investment advice. © CNBC for source material.