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CNBC Halftime Report — Inflation Risks to the Rally

Friday of Fed week: the 10-year sits at exactly 5%, oil is up 30% in a month, and the S&P is back on its June high doing nothing. Amy Raskin calls the AI build-out "a financially unsustainable arms race"; Rob Sechan says the hike was "the best outcome we could have had," inflation is transitory, and his firm is "buying bonds like maniacs" — "we will overbuild… that is not today's problem." Jim Lebenthal calls the three-month stall a wall of worry "setting up for the climb." The best fight is over Apple at 35–36× forward: Sechan says "you can't be underweight Apple," Lebenthal trimmed half, Raskin holds but won't add, and Bill Baruch phones in to cut it from 14% to 8% and buy more NVIDIA and Amazon. Also: Disney hires Character.AI's CEO as CTO, Wells Fargo cuts Netflix to Sell (Snipe and Sechan hold), Buffett hands Berkshire's chair to Howard, Goldman and Apollo stay Snipe's favorite financials, and On signs Mbappé but stays a "no touch." Final trades: Broadcom (Sechan), Arista (Snipe), Cisco (Lebenthal), Itaú (Raskin).
2026-SEP-18 · CNBC Halftime Report (audio edition, Friday after the FOMC hike) · host Leslie Picker (in for Scott Wapner); committee Amy Raskin, Jim Lebenthal, Jason Snipe, Rob Sechan; Bill Baruch by phone; Julia Boorstin, Mackenzie Sigalos, Seema Modi, Mike Santoli (Market Memo), Sharon Epperson · 43:46 · ▶ Listen · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: A 5% 10-year and a 30% oil spike have bought a stall, not a selloff — and the desk splits on whether the AI build-out earns its cost of capital. Raskin's case is arithmetic: roughly $200 billion of cumulative AI revenue against a trillion of capex this year, rising component and power costs, and too many players to earn a return. Sechan's is historical: every cycle overbuilds eventually, but the mega-caps have de-rated from 34× to 24× (some to 18×), and bonds are finally a hedge again. The stock-level work follows valuation discipline rather than direction — trim Apple at two standard deviations above its median multiple, rotate into the Mag 7 names that should lead a breakout, separate "have" banks (capital markets) from "have-nots," and wait on consumer names until real income turns up. Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Panel = CNBC's investment committee; "View" is the panel's net take this episode and the cell names which member(s) held it. This is an audio podcast: the Spotify transcript carries real (m:ss) cues (shown in the cells, the talking-point headings and transcript.txt), but there is no YouTube id to deep-link, so each "At" cell opens the episode. Speaker names were mapped from context (Spotify labels only "Speaker N"). Order: Positive → Neutral → Negative. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat the committee saidAt
AVGOBroadcomQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSechan's final trade (42:05). "Up relatively little year to date, it's re-rated a bit lately, 60% revenue growth this year, 60% next. I think it's a relatively attractive valuation at 20 times."listen↗
ANETArista NetworksQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSnipe's final trade (42:21). "Data center networking is still extremely robust." Fits his broader call that AI-infrastructure capex runs from $900 billion this year to $1.6 trillion next.listen↗
CSCOCisco SystemsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal's final trade, riding Snipe's networking call (42:26). "This has been a winner all year and I think the last couple of months of consolidation sets it up for the next leg higher."listen↗
ITUBItaú Unibanco HoldingQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveRaskin's final trade — a relatively new holding (42:36). "It's a little risky with the Brazilian election next month, but nine times earnings and if the election goes the right way, we think there's a lot of upside."listen↗
GSGoldman SachsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSnipe owns it through the week's worst financials drawdown (32:40). Solomon guided FICC trading slightly softer for Q3, but "I think fixed income trading will be fine… Goldman is best of breed in IB" — one of his two "favorite picks." Sechan (31:12) counts it among the "haves" that gain from deals, capital raises and fixed-income volatility.listen↗
APOApollo Global ManagementQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSnipe owns and holds it despite the alt-manager selloff (33:06). Realizations and fundraising "will probably get a little bit tougher," but Apollo is "a little bit more diverse than the typical alt manager, like I really like their insurance business. So I'm still going to hold" — with Goldman, "our favorite picks."listen↗
JPMJPMorgan ChaseQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSechan's "haves" in a split bank group (31:12). "The JP Morgans, the Morgan Stanleys, the Goldman Sachs I think are going to do incredibly well in this environment" — deal activity, capital raises and trading-desk volatility; this week's drop was "more of a scare."listen↗
MSMorgan StanleyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveIn Sechan's "haves" list (31:12) — capital-markets banks that "make markets, but they also take positions and they happen to be pretty good at it." Picker also cites Morgan Stanley's call for two more Fed hikes (4:33).listen↗
BRK.BBerkshire HathawayQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveRaskin and Lebenthal both own and hold it as Buffett steps down as chairman (28:01–30:10). Raskin: "when you have a war for capital, which we have going on right now, Berkshire, which has a lot of capital, should win in the longer term" — the multiple "is actually not very high compared to its own history." Lebenthal: the move fits Buffett's governance standards and frees Greg Abel ("what if Mr. Abel wants to initiate a big dividend?"). Shares up only ~1% this year.listen↗
DISWalt DisneyQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveLebenthal owns it and keeps it after the CTO hire (13:31–14:12). CEO Josh D'Amaro hires Character.AI CEO Karandeep Anand as its first CTO. Lebenthal: too new to judge, but Disney must "co-opt AI" (an OpenAI partnership "really didn't go anywhere") — "this is still a very cheap stock… I think it's worth hanging on to."listen↗
NFLXNetflixQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveWells Fargo downgrades to Sell; both owners (Snipe, Sechan) hold (14:50–16:22). Snipe: down ~20% since the Paramount deal fell through, YouTube and short-form pull engagement, "even though I believe Netflix is the streaming winner" — sports and a doubling of ad revenue ahead. Sechan: "you've been able to add to the name after it's re-rated"; "it's about the eyeballs… you can always monetize that." Down ~24% YTD.listen↗
NVDANVIDIAQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBill Baruch is buying more with his Apple trim proceeds (25:43). "We want to own the names more heavily that are going to drive the breakout in that Mag 7 ETF. We're buying more NVIDIA" — he expects the largest names to lead one of the year's two "risk-on thrusts."listen↗
AMZNAmazonQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe other name Baruch is buying more of (25:59) — "we're buying more Amazon… to lean into that right now," to own the drivers of the Mag 7 ETF's breakout to a new high.listen↗
GOOGLAlphabet (YouTube)QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSechan owns YouTube through Alphabet as his hedge on Netflix (15:40). "A nice hedge to the other side of that is also owning YouTube, which we own through our other ownership stakes" — streaming "can be more than a one horse race." Snipe names YouTube's short form as the engagement threat to Netflix.listen↗
METAMeta PlatformsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveSechan extends his Netflix "eyeballs" case to Meta (16:22). "It's about the eyeballs that they have and the subscribers that they have. You can always monetize that. I feel very similarly about Meta in the engagement with the ecosystem."listen↗
AAPLAppleQT · SA · STK · FANeutralEveryone owns it; the committee splits on sizing at 35–36× forward (20:03–25:43). Raskin holds, "not sure I would be adding right now" — stable earnings, capex not blowing out, pricing power. Sechan: "Apple owns the customer, period, full stop… you can't be underweight Apple" — the benefit moves to the application layer and "every app is going to have to pay them." Lebenthal "trimmed it in half back before the last earnings" (keeps a $15-basis core). Baruch (by phone) is trimming 14% → 8% at "2 standard deviations above its median valuation." iPhone 18 Pro on sale; the $2,000+ foldable Duo next month.listen↗
NKENikeQT · SA · STK · FANeutralLoses Mbappé to On; Sechan says the group has to wait for the consumer (37:35–38:18). "Nike's crafted a niche" (Haaland, Ronaldo), and challengers "forced Nike to wake up," but "you need to get real disposable income up a little bit… Now is not that time." Down big this year.listen↗
DECKDeckers OutdoorQT · SA · STK · FANeutralPassing mention — Sechan (37:53) cites Deckers' Hoka, with On's shoes, as the new entrants that "forced Nike to wake up." No stance on the stock.listen↗
ADDYYAdidasQT · SANeutralReferenced only — Sechan (37:35) on the athlete-endorsement race: "Messi's with Adidas and Mbappé's with On now."listen↗
005930.KSSamsung ElectronicsQT · STK · SANeutralCited as evidence, not a stance — Sigalos (17:16, 19:06): Apple "reportedly just agreed to pay Samsung even more for memory starting early next year," and Samsung has had the foldable market to itself since 2019 (8th generation) before Apple's Duo arrives.listen↗
MSFTMicrosoftQT · SA · STK · FANeutralPassing mention — Epperson (39:18) lists it with NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon as the five tech giants that make up ~30% of the S&P 500, hence of most 401(k)s.listen↗
RSPInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFQT · SA · STKNeutralCited as evidence, not a stance — Lebenthal (2:41) uses the equal-weight RSP and small caps as proof of rotation under a flat S&P; later (41:46) suggests 401(k) savers look for an equal-weight option "as the rally broadens."listen↗
PSKYParamount SkydanceQT · SA · STK · FANeutralReferenced only — Snipe (14:50): Netflix has been "a tough story ever since kind of the Paramount deal didn't happen."listen↗
Character.AICharacter.AI (private)NeutralNews item, not a stance — Boorstin (12:07–13:02): Disney hires Character.AI CEO Karandeep Anand (ex-Meta, Microsoft) as its first CTO, with part of Character.AI's technical team expected to join; Disney might add interactive characters to Disney+.listen↗
OpenAIOpenAI (private)NeutralReferenced only — Lebenthal (14:12): Disney's "OpenAI partnership… really didn't go anywhere."listen↗
HoltecHoltec International (private; IPO postponed)NeutralReferenced only — Picker (11:00) recalling Flatt: his main AI build-out worry was compute and energy access, not safety or "Holtec… delaying its IPO."listen↗
BNBrookfield CorporationQT · SA · STK · FANeutralReferenced only — Picker (11:00) recaps CEO Bruce Flatt's view from the prior day's show: the binding AI constraint is "compute and the access to energy… still just a supply issue." Raskin: rising energy cost raises the return bar further.listen↗
ONONOn HoldingQT · SA · STK · FANegativeSigns Mbappé away from Nike, but Lebenthal (a former owner) won't buy back (36:25). Now "well below the market average, very much value territory," but only because estimates fell: "the earnings are not good enough… until those earnings estimates start going up, this is a no touch." Raskin: heavy competition and a stretched consumer (~18 months of negative real income).listen↗

2. Talking points

0:33 Yields at 5%, oil +30%, and a market that does nothing

3:11 Earnings after the AI surge

4:33 Sechan: the hike was the best outcome

8:25 Wall of worry vs. an unsustainable arms race

12:00 Disney hires a CTO from Character.AI

14:31 Wells Fargo cuts Netflix to Sell

16:33 iPhone 18 and the Apple sizing fight

24:35 Bill Baruch trims Apple, buys NVIDIA and Amazon

27:36 Buffett steps down as Berkshire chairman

30:17 Financials: haves and have-nots

34:08 Santoli's market memo

36:09 On signs Mbappé; the stretched consumer

39:03 AI exposure inside 401(k)s

41:54 Final trades

3. In plain English

AVGO — Broadcom Positive

Broadcom designs custom AI chips and networking chips for the big cloud companies. Sechan's point is about price versus growth: revenue is growing around 60% a year, yet the stock trades at about 20 times earnings and has lagged this year, so he thinks investors are paying a reasonable price for a very fast-growing business.

ANET — Arista Networks Positive

Arista sells the high-speed switches that connect thousands of servers inside a data center. When companies build AI data centers, they need much more of this networking gear. Snipe's pick rests on AI spending still rising sharply next year, which keeps orders for Arista's equipment strong.

CSCO — Cisco Positive

Cisco is the older, larger maker of networking equipment. Lebenthal's pick is partly a chart call: the stock rose all year, then went sideways for a couple of months (a "consolidation"), which he reads as a pause before the next move up, supported by the same data-center demand Snipe described.

ITUB — Itaú Unibanco Positive

Itaú is Brazil's largest private bank, traded in the US as an ADR (a US-listed stand-in for the foreign share). At about nine times earnings it is cheap. The catch is Brazil's presidential election next month: Raskin admits it is risky, but if the result is market-friendly she expects the discount to narrow and the stock to rise a lot.

GS — Goldman Sachs Positive

Goldman fell more than other banks this week after its CEO said bond, currency and commodity trading would be a bit softer this quarter. Snipe thinks that is a short-term blip: Goldman is the top investment bank for mergers and stock/bond sales, and a busy deal market plus volatile bond markets are good for its business.

APO — Apollo Positive

Apollo manages private investments (private credit, private equity) and also owns a large insurance business, Athene. Private-market managers sold off on worries that higher rates make it harder to raise money and sell holdings. Snipe agrees that part gets harder but holds Apollo because the insurance arm earns steady income that other managers lack.

BRK.B — Berkshire Hathaway Positive

Warren Buffett is stepping down as chairman, with his son Howard taking the role and Greg Abel already running the company as CEO. Raskin says Berkshire usually lags in a hot momentum market but shines in downturns, when its huge cash pile lets it buy businesses cheaply. Lebenthal sees the change as good governance: it gives Abel room to make his own decisions, even ones Buffett resisted, like paying a large dividend.

DIS — Disney Positive

Disney hired the head of Character.AI, a chatbot company, as its first chief technology officer, signalling it wants to use AI in its streaming service and its characters. Lebenthal says it is too early to judge the move, but the stock is cheap enough that he is holding while the company works out its AI plan.

NFLX — Netflix Positive

Wells Fargo told clients to sell Netflix, which is down about a quarter this year as YouTube and short videos compete for viewers' time. Both committee members who own it disagree: Snipe still sees Netflix as the streaming leader with room to grow in sports and advertising, and Sechan sees the lower price as a chance to buy a dominant subscriber base more cheaply.

AAPL — Apple Neutral

Everyone on the desk owns Apple and admires the business; the argument is about how much to own at about 36 times expected earnings, near the top of its historical range. Sechan says Apple controls the customer relationship, so it will collect a toll from AI apps for years and no professional manager should hold less than the market does. Lebenthal and Bill Baruch trimmed because the price already reflects that; Raskin holds but won't add.

NVDA — NVIDIA Positive

Baruch runs a concentrated 10-stock portfolio. He sold part of his Apple stake because it looked expensive and put the money into NVIDIA and Amazon, which he expects to lead the next leg up in the biggest tech stocks.

ONON — On Holding Negative

On makes premium running shoes and just signed soccer star Kylian Mbappé away from Nike. The stock now looks cheap, but only because analysts cut their profit forecasts. Lebenthal won't buy until those forecasts start rising again, and Raskin adds that shoppers are squeezed by high gas prices and mortgage rates.


Summary derived from the public CNBC Halftime Report audio episode (Spotify auto-generated transcript in transcript.txt, read from the episode page's transcript data with its (m:ss) cues) for personal study. Speaker names mapped from context. Not investment advice. © CNBC for source material.