Stance reflects how each is framed by Cole in his segment (from 23:49). Frances Horodelski's segment-1 names are context, not stance rows. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Owned — biggest position, >12% of the non-US fund ("by far"). Monday's Venezuela-panic drop was "obscene… makes no sense." What he'd tell management (McKenzie/Cam): "Monday's reaction was utterly ridiculous — sell the refineries and buy back stock, because they think we're a dead duck." Be long the unhedged upstream, not the refineries. | 1:00:57 |
| SCR.TO | Strathcona Resources | SA · STK · FA | Positive | Owned. Just paid the long-promised $10 special (return of capital — a partial capital gain for US holders, treated well). "Take Adam Waterous at his word — he's done exactly what he said." Not a greenfield, but growing production ~200,000 barrels. Can build new barrels at ~$30k/flowing barrel — cheaper than buying them in the open market. | 1:02:04 |
| TVE.TO | Tamarack Valley Energy | SA · STK · FA | Positive | Owned (bought in last season's tumult) — governance-critical. On the December poison-pill proposal: "you should vote no — that's stupid; shareholders are the powerful creatures, don't give up your rights." The DD&A masterclass: waterflooding keeps announcing higher reserves it "never paid for" — reserves booked essentially for free, so true earnings are understated. | 48:16 |
| APA | APA Corporation (Apache) | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Owned (US producer). A "nice offshore asset coming online over the next few years" in the Ghana/Suriname region — the natural long-life extension major US producers reach for when they won't build long-life assets in Canada. Permian (short-cycle) + offshore (long-cycle). | 54:44 |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Owned (US). Used to produce in Venezuela before its operations were seized; also produces in Canada. Skeptical that a quick reentry is easy — seized capital assets get ruined or sold off, so overnight restarts "aren't how it works." Popped Monday on the Venezuela headline, gave it all back by mid-week. | 36:00 |
| MEG.TO | MEG Energy | SA · STK | Neutral | Position converted in the Strathcona deal. "We took our MEG shares in shares — didn't sell." Disappointed the deal's US tax treatment gave full capital gains (couldn't roll the gain forward): "I really didn't like how the board treated us as shareholders in the end." The Christina Lake facility (60k → 108k bbl/d) is his DD&A example. | 1:00:27 |
| CVX | Chevron | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference — already produces in Venezuela; "everybody with a cell phone could have told you" it might pump more there, so the Monday pop faded fast. Also fought Hess over Guyana — the offshore-long-life prize. | 32:19 |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference — a capital-allocation example. Just sold its chemicals business to Berkshire; it also owns 40% of Western Midstream (~$6.4B). With midstream at multi-year highs, Smead argues Oxy should sell that stake and buy back its own stock or cut its capital structure. | 56:12 |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference — the midstream business Oxy owns 40% of, "doing just fine at multi-year highs." The asset Smead thinks Oxy should monetize to fund buybacks — a live example of his sell-the-hedged-asset, keep-the-oil-beta capital-allocation view. | 56:38 |
| VLO | Valero Energy | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference — a US refiner that "popped beautifully" on the Venezuela barrels. Smead: he doesn't understand what changes overnight; if you own refineries you're more hedged (you want a wide diff) — the opposite of his long-oil-unhedged view. He'd be selling refineries here. | 53:27 |
| HWX.TO | Headwater Exploration | SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Not owned. Named again as the M&A that "should" happen — "Tamarack and Headwater should be dancing and mating." An example of the consolidation the tumult should catalyze. | 45:19 |
| ATH | Athabasca Oil | SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Not owned. Consolidation logic: Athabasca developing a Duvernay asset "that should be sitting in Spartan Delta." The kind of tuck-in that should happen as the industry rationalizes. | 45:41 |
| SDE.TO | Spartan Delta | SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Not owned — consolidation reference. The natural home for Athabasca's Duvernay asset; named alongside Tamarack/Headwater as an obvious pairing the sector "should" do. | 45:57 |
| PXT | Parex Resources | SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference — Amber raises Parex (Colombia operations) as a Latin-America "tentacle" of the Venezuela story. Smead frames the region via long-life/offshore logic rather than opining on Parex directly. | 54:24 |
Stance = how each name is framed by Cole in this interview, not a price rating. He also flags a new, undisclosed Canadian heavy-oil greenfield position he can't name "for regulatory reasons" (not tabled — no ticker invented). Macro substance feeds the master macro viewpoints: fade the Venezuela panic, the world still short >10M bbl/d in 10 years, WTI-WCS diff compression → pipelines/refineries under-earn → long oil unhedged / sell refineries, and subsidy filling a market failure.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each argued pick — what the business does and why he holds the stance. (Plain-language companion to the table; renders on the consolidated ticker page.)
Cenovus is Smead's single biggest holding — over 12% of his non-US fund. When Canadian oil stocks were dumped on the Venezuela news, Cenovus fell hard for no good reason ("obscene… makes no sense"). His message to management is blunt: the market is treating you like a dead duck, so sell the refineries and buy back stock. The refineries are a lower-return, hedged business; the value is in the long-life oil, and buying back cheap shares turns the panic to shareholders' advantage.
Strathcona, run by Adam Waterous, just paid the big $10-per-share "special" dividend it had long promised — for a US holder like Smead it came through as a capital gain rather than a taxable dividend, which he prefers. His point: Waterous does exactly what he says he'll do, so trust him. The company is growing production by about 200,000 barrels and can build brand-new barrels for around $30,000 each — cheaper than buying barrels on the open market — which is why he keeps owning it.
Tamarack is Smead's Clearwater waterflood holding. Two things here. First, governance: the company proposed a "poison pill" that would hand its board more power to block a takeover, and Smead is adamant shareholders should vote no — owners, not boards, should be in control. Second, an accounting gem: as Tamarack floods water into its wells, it keeps discovering more oil reserves than it originally paid for. Because it books those extra reserves essentially "for free," its true earnings are higher than the reported numbers suggest — a hidden value the market misses.
APA (the old Apache) is a US producer Smead owns. Beyond its short-cycle Permian shale, it has a big offshore project coming online over the next few years in the Suriname/Ghana region. Smead likes that combination: fast-responding onshore barrels plus long-life offshore barrels — the kind of durable, long-lived assets the US majors reach for offshore because they won't build them in Canada.
Conoco is Smead's owned US producer. It used to operate in Venezuela before its assets were seized, so when the market bid up Conoco and Chevron on hopes of a Venezuela reentry, Smead was skeptical: seized facilities get ruined or sold off, and you can't just flip production back on overnight. The pop faded within days — proving his point that following the headline was a losing trade.
Summary & timestamps derived from the public YouTube video (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © In the Money with Amber Kanwar & Cole Smead / Smead Capital Management for source material.