The uranium market is running out of shock absorbers — WNA takeaways

01:49 The mood in the room vs the mood online

• It is like the 2023/24 conference, when uranium equities were "being murdered" while the room was bullish. This year investor sentiment is "firmly back into depression levels," yet the people who run the sector ranged "from super constructive to extremely bullish."

03:40 Ride the volatility, trade the sentiment gauge

• The sector has always swung hard, so he mixes buy-and-hold with flexibility: call options last year "just to ride that wave." When his newsletter's sentiment indicator reads euphoric, take chips off the table; at depression levels, add chips.

04:32 Core takeaway: from terms to supply security

• A fuel buyer's summary: contracting talks used to be about price, floors, ceilings and market reference. They are now "far more about supply security — whether someone can actually deliver."
• Why: disappointment with brownfield restarts and greenfield development (slipping timelines, budgets overrun many times, some projects never delivering). Buyers no longer go "for the cheapest pounds available from XYZ developer."

06:38 Kazatomprom's western desk is finally busy

• Western utilities refused Kazatomprom's terms for years; "this year they were more than willing to come to the table." The eastern call center "remains red hot," and now the western one is active too, a "wake up and smell the coffee moment."

07:46 A seller's market

• The price is up over $15 since last year's fuel conference on relatively thin volume. Floors are rising into the $80s and ceilings exceed $150, "if there is even a ceiling." Buyers are disappointed in the supply response even with the price at $97. "We are firmly in a sellers market."
• "I am a buyer here… not of all equities, of certain equities."

09:58 KHNP's 800,000 SWU enrichment tender

• The Korean tender was among the biggest topics on the floor. At 800,000 SWU/yr it is ~26–31m lb of uranium over the contract's life, depending on tails assay, and nearly 3x the previous Korean tender. "Very few suppliers" can match it.

10:32 The US government RFI — ~40m lb of US-origin uranium

• First posted 10 August and updated at the start of the conference: ~4m lb/yr of unobligated uranium (~1,500 t as UF6) from the early 2030s to the early 2040s, all domestically sourced, for "various strategic purposes." The whole US produced 2.12m lb last year, its best since 2017. The 1980 peak was 43.7m lb: "I would be surprised if we get past 10 million pounds this cycle."
• The government is now "competing directly for US origin uranium with US utilities."

12:19 Duke's RFP now counts as big

• Duke Energy wants ~400,000 lb/yr for ~5 years into the 2030s, with an option for ~300,000 lb/yr for three years or more. That once would have been filled "within the first few weeks"; given what is available at current prices, "it is considered pretty big."

12:52 New balance sheets: BHP, hyperscalers, trading houses

• BHP's M&A representative was on the floor. BHP has been staking the southwestern Athabasca Basin but "seem[s] to be after something bigger."
• Hyperscalers are in frequent talks with enrichers and are "price insensitive," securing the fuel cycle in the order a utility would and leaving uranium for last. A contact: "these guys don't mess around. They might even buy a mine."
• A major financial player says trading houses that left in the bear market are staffing up, with bigger balance sheets now behind physical traders.

15:46 Is the pain over? It depends on the broader market

• URNM is ~40% below the late-January spike above $80. Codex sold into it (Denison, Energy Fuels, gold and silver miners) because the start of the year "got too incredibly bullish."
• A sector this small depends on overall risk appetite. A weak dollar, geopolitics and kinetic conflicts, rate-hike uncertainty and US Treasury market dysfunction have made the past few months "extremely rough for risk assets."

18:55 A stair-step, not a spike

• Uranium has beaten a flat broad market before, in January's risk-on period. He expects price to climb in steps and "drag equities along kicking and screaming": "more of an opportunity rather than a trap."
• The near term is "extremely uncertain," so he is spending the cash raised by selling into spikes carefully.

20:59 The cost of new supply has doubled

• Raw materials, equipment, shipping and inflation "has taken a bite out of literally everything." A $45 cost from a 2021/22 feasibility study is "super outdated… basically double."
• After 10–15 years of a buyer's market, miners will not accept "$5 over our C1 cash cost." They price off all-in sustaining cost, then add security in the terms, shareholder returns, "and a little reward for ourselves."

23:05 Kazatomprom: the bottom of the cost curve is rising

• C1 is ~$24.48/lb vs just under $18 (+37%) and AISC is in the low $40s (+25%). "If the lowest end of the cost curve is rising you can be absolutely sure that every other part of the cost curve is rising as well."
• Sulfuric acid did most of the damage: the H1 2026 purchase price was up almost 40% y/y and triple 2022, and acid is now over 15% of the cost base. The 800,000 t TQC acid plant has slipped from Q1 2027 to Q3 2027 or 2028 after an archaeological find (a 35-million-year-old rhino) halted earthworks: "the most uranium thing ever."

26:51 Greenfield needs $120, and it still takes 10–20 years

• Kazakhstan supplies ~40% of the world, and its costs are rising 25–37%. Cameco says greenfield needs $120.
• The WNA report puts mine development at 10–20+ years, against the 8–15 once assumed. Big legacy mines roll off over the next decade (Cigar Lake past 2035, McArthur River 2042) while demand is "accelerating."

29:04 Alternative supply needs higher prices for longer; 85% odds of $150

• Uranium from phosphate, Western Australia, seawater and polymetallic mines "is contingent on higher prices for longer."
• "I'm putting that at 85% or higher that we will see $150 uranium," and probably more, with triple digits lasting longer than people expect.

30:45 Pounds on the balance sheet are not pounds in a reactor core

• Buyers are "increasingly aware" that projects run late, run over budget or never deliver, yet some supply forecasts are "a little bit too optimistic." Many companies "failed to deliver in anywhere near the capacity" they promised.
• Arrow is the biggest example. His hypothetical, put to large traders and buyers: ~16m lb in 2034–35 instead of 29.5m in 2031, or a revised mine plan, "will have an outsized impact."

34:31 Out of shock absorbers

• Available mobile inventories are low, and legacy contracts have been "by and large flexed up at lower prices." Most of the one-time levers that slowed price rises "have been pulled all the way down and once that lever is pulled it cannot be pulled again."

35:55 A longer bull market than he expected

• He expected a shorter cycle and better equity performance at these prices, and admits he "could have done a lot better" trading it. Some subscribers did well "skimming it off the top" with options. "We need a lot higher prices for a lot longer than people think."

36:39 SMRs: a meaningful roll-out at the end of the 2030s, and Darlington comes first

• "A decade being tomorrow in this space": SMR plans are already shaping the forward demand curve. He spoke with Westinghouse (AP300), GE Vernova (BWRX-300) and Rolls-Royce SMR.
• Darlington's BWRX-300 (construction began May 2025, completion 2029, in service by end-2030) is the first major catalyst. One unnamed US utility is a fan of SMRs but will do nothing lasting until Darlington is commissioned and it can see the cost of a fleet.

39:22 Vendor targets, a crowded field, and demand that is underpriced

• GE Vernova: ~10 units / 3 GW by 2035, possibly 4x by 2040. Rolls-Royce: final investment decision in 2029, first power in the mid-2030s, and "a lot of demand." The field is crowded (Westinghouse, Holtec, TerraPower/Natrium, X-energy, Kairos, Oklo) and not all will reach the starting line.
• Early-2030s roll-out hopes will disappoint, and standardized fuel procurement and fabrication are prerequisites. Still, SMR demand is "somewhere between a little bit underpriced and perhaps more likely severely underpriced," and it should show up before this bull market ends.

42:37 The product

• patreon.com/contrariancodex offers biweekly newsletters, the model portfolio with buy/sell signals, macro analysis, oil equities, precious metals (one gold holding went from ~60 cents to over $12 by the February peak), early-stage US industrials ("most bullish" alongside gold and uranium), interviews and company analysis.