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David Cates — Denison Mines Update (with Geoff Smith)

"The incumbent producers have been clear that growth is not a priority. And so, the growth comes from the emerging producers."
2026-MAR-31 · Jimmy Connor (YouTube) — conference-lineup interview · guests David Cates (President & CEO, Denison Mines) and Geoff Smith (Denison, commercial / contracting) · 21:39 · ▶ Watch · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: Management talking its own book, one month after the build decision. Phoenix — "the first new Canadian uranium mine approved for construction in over 20 years" — starts construction in March 2026 for first production by mid-2028: ~10-year life, ~6M lb/yr average but front-loaded at 8–9M lb/yr for the first 5 years. Post-FID capex rose to ~$600M (from the 2023 feasibility study, in 2022 dollars) on inflation, cost precision and an all-large-diameter well field; grid power insulates the energy-hungry freeze wall from oil/diesel swings. McClean North SABRE (operated by Orano) delivered just under 150k lb to Denison in 2025. Commercial lead Geoff Smith: a 5M lb deal with $10M upfront (repaid as a per-pound discount), 12M lb more in advanced negotiation, and a strategy of market-related pricing diversified by tenor and counterparty — pitched to utilities as the low-risk emerging producer, since incumbents "have been clear that growth is not a priority." Year-end 2025: ~$700M in cash, physical uranium (1.85M lb) and investments. Griffin to be funded from Phoenix cash flow for a 16–18-year, 100M+ lb Wheeler River. Timestamps link into the video.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

TickerNameResearchViewWhat he saidAt
DNNDenison MinesQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHis own company. Phoenix ISR — first new Canadian uranium mine approved for construction in 20+ years — starts construction in March for "first production by the middle of 2028"; ~10-year life at ~6M lb/yr, front-loaded to 8–9M lb/yr in the first 5 years. Post-FID capex ~$600M; ~$700M of cash, physical uranium and investments at end-2025; Griffin to be funded from Phoenix cash flow.2:21
UraniumUranium (U3O8 — commodity)Positive"We have a robust view on the fundamentals for uranium," so Denison pursues market-related pricing to "capture that potential upside." New supply "rests on the shoulders of the new producers" because incumbents say growth is not a priority. Denison holds 1.85M lb in inventory (1.7M lb purchased + ~150k lb from McClean) to fund the build via near-term and opportunistic sales.9:20
SYH.VSkyharbour Resources (SYH: TSXV; SYHBF: OTC)QT · SA · STKPositive"A great partnership" — Denison is a long-term shareholder (a sponsor's view). The Russell Lake property, north and east of Wheeler River, was just broken into four JVs; Denison has initial interests and the option to earn up to 70% on two, starting with Wheeler North for synergies with Phoenix and Griffin.17:57
COSACosa Resources (COSA: TSXV)STKPositivePart of "team Denison": Denison vended non-core ground into it, keeping a 30% asset-level interest plus an equity stake of up to ~20%. He points to "recent results… where they've had success on the Murphy Lake North property" and hopes it becomes a meaningful discovery (a sponsor's view).19:52
FMSTForemost Clean Energy (FMST: Nasdaq; FAT: CSE)QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe other "team Denison" vend-in: Denison's non-core assets, a 30% asset-level interest retained and an equity position of up to ~20%, so Foremost raises the capital and explores ground Denison "unlikely to be exploring in the next 3 to 5 years" (a sponsor's view).17:17
OranoOrano (French state-owned — private)NeutralReferenced only — as Denison's JV partner and the operator of the McClean North SABRE mine and McClean mill; he thanks it for "the excellence" of the start-up. No view on Orano itself.6:13
NXENexGen EnergyQT · SA · STK · FANeutralPassing mention — named only in the host's question on how Denison's contracting strategy differs from NexGen's and Cameco's; Smith contrasts Denison with producers needing "a greater degree of price certainty… to service debt" but does not name them.8:34
CCJCamecoQT · SA · STK · FANeutralPassing mention — the host's contracting-strategy comparison, alongside NexGen; Cigar Lake ore is also co-milled with SABRE ore at McClean. Implicitly one of the "incumbent producers" for whom "growth is not a priority."8:34
WoodWood (John Wood Group — EPCM contractor)NeutralReferenced only — the third-party construction-management (EPCM) firm hired for Phoenix, working as an integrated project team with Denison's engineers so it can "hit these peaks of activity."14:13

"View" is the Denison management stance in this conversation (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating — David Cates is Denison's CEO and Geoff Smith runs its commercial side, and Denison holds equity in Skyharbour, Cosa and Foremost, so it is a sponsor's view, not an independent one. Wood is tabled as a private name (no ticker authored). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

0:18 Permitted — first new Canadian uranium mine in 20+ years

1:12 2026 priorities: slab and freeze fence

2:21 First production mid-2028; front-loaded output

2:48 Capex to ~$600M post-FID

4:54 Oil at $60–100: grid power is the hedge

5:49 McClean North SABRE: back in production

7:17 The 5M lb contract: offtake that doubles as financing

8:13 12M lb more in advanced negotiation

8:34 A "Denison-centric" contracting strategy

10:14 Why utilities welcome Denison

11:20 The inventory: 1.85M lb

12:07 Griffin: funded by Phoenix

13:51 Labour: Wood as EPCM, local contractors

15:27 Balance sheet: ~$700M

16:54 "Team Denison": discovery exposure through juniors

20:47 News flow

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each pick — what it actually is and why management holds that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

DNN — Denison Mines Positive

Denison is about to build Phoenix, a uranium mine in northern Saskatchewan that uses "in-situ recovery": wells pump a solution underground to dissolve the uranium and bring it back up to a small plant, instead of digging a pit or tunnels. It just got its final permits — the first new Canadian uranium mine approved in over 20 years — and construction starts in March 2026, aiming for first production by mid-2028. It should average about 6 million pounds a year over 10 years, with more in the early years (8–9 million).

The build cost went up to about $600 million, mostly because of inflation since the 2022-dollar estimate and a choice to drill only larger, more flexible wells. Management says it can pay for this from about $700 million of cash, stockpiled uranium and investments, and that Phoenix's profits will then pay for a second mine, Griffin. It already gets a small amount of uranium from a mine run by its partner Orano. Remember this is the company's own management speaking.

Uranium — U3O8 (commodity) Positive

Denison's view is that the big existing uranium miners have said they are not trying to grow, so the extra uranium the world needs has to come from new mines like its own. Because it is confident prices will rise, it prefers "market-related" contracts, where the price is set near delivery, over locking in today's price. It still spreads its bets across different contract lengths, buyers and price terms in case the market turns out differently.

It also owns about 1.85 million pounds of uranium in storage, which it can sell to help fund construction — and which lets it offer power companies deliveries well before its new mine starts.

SYH.V — Skyharbour Resources Positive

Skyharbour is a small uranium explorer that owns a big property (Russell Lake) right next to Denison's mine site. Denison has been a shareholder for years, and the two just split the property into four joint ventures. Denison can earn up to 70% of two of them by spending on exploration, starting with the piece closest to its own deposits — if something is found there, it could share Denison's infrastructure. As a shareholder, Denison is naturally upbeat.

COSA — Cosa Resources Positive

Cosa is a small explorer that took over some of Denison's land Denison was not going to explore itself. Denison kept 30% of those projects and owns up to about 20% of the company, so if Cosa finds something Denison gains twice. Cates points to Cosa's recent drilling success at Murphy Lake North as encouraging.

FMST — Foremost Clean Energy Positive

Foremost is set up like Cosa: Denison handed it exploration land it would not get to for years, kept 30% of the projects, and owns up to about 20% of the company. Foremost raises its own money and does the drilling, so Denison keeps a stake in any discovery without spending its own cash or distracting its team from building Phoenix.


Summary & timestamps derived from the public YouTube video (transcript in transcript.html) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Jimmy Connor / Denison Mines for source material.