Actionable insights — Haymaker As Host #7: SMRs & molten salt reactors
The repeatable analysis behind the view: not what he owns, but how he sizes up an early-stage technology bet, written so the process can be rerun on the next emerging-tech theme.
How to read this page: each insight is a method: the step, the check he applies, and the signal to watch when re-running it. The boxed line shows how it played out in this Jun-2023 post. A written source (the video is not transcribed), so there are no timestamps. Only three methods are supported by the short written intro.
1. Confirm a theme when independent sources arrive at it from different directions
The repeatable method
- Log who is adopting a new technology: governments, large industrial companies, and research sources you already trust on unrelated problems.
- Give extra weight when a source whose main work is a different thesis (here, U.S. fiscal stress) independently concludes the technology matters. That is convergence, not an echo chamber.
- Frame the payoff with a historical analogue (e.g. military technology migrating into business use) to judge the time horizon: often a long-run productivity story rather than a near-term fix.
Here: the prior week's MHM listed governments (incl. the U.S.) and companies such as DOW joining the SMR "bandwagon"; this week Luke Gromen, Hay's go-to source on the "Federal Fiscal Funding Fiasco," frames SMRs as the next DoD-to-consumer productivity boom, though too late to prevent a fiscal crisis.
Watch for
- A macro source known for an unrelated thesis newly endorsing a technology, alongside concrete government or corporate adoption.
2. Diligence a start-up's claimed edge through its bench and its patents, discounting insider bias
The repeatable method
- When an insider claims the company's design beats rivals, note the bias explicitly and don't take the claim at face value.
- Test it against what is harder to fake: the depth and pedigree of the technical team (e.g. alumni of a program with a long operating record).
- Check how defensible the edge is: are patents granted or only pending, and how fast are competitors moving?
Here: Richard McPherson says rival MSR designs are inferior to MicroNuclear's. Hay: "of course, he is biased," but the bench of U.S. Navy nuclear-propulsion veterans makes him think McPherson is "probably right, at least for now." "It's for sure their competitors aren't standing still… I'm hoping their pending patents are rock solid!"
Watch for
- Patent grants vs rejections, key technical hires or departures, and competitor milestones (licences, test reactors) that close the gap.
3. Own the theme, not just one horse: widen a single private bet
The repeatable method
- Separate your conviction in the theme from your conviction in the company. They are rarely the same.
- If your only exposure is one early-stage (often illiquid, private) company, say so plainly and treat it as a speculative position.
- Keep looking for other ways to play the theme (other developers, suppliers, fuel, listed vehicles) so the thesis can pay off even if your first pick loses the race.
Here: Hay invests in a MicroNuclear subsidiary but admits "I have no clue if I've bet on the right horse. Consequently, I'll be on the lookout for other ways to play MSRs," which he is "more and more convinced" are the coming energy step-change.
Watch for
- Listed or investable vehicles appearing for the theme (IPOs, SPACs, suppliers, fuel-cycle names) that let a single private bet be broadened.
Methods distilled from the public Haymaker post (written intro; the accompanying video is not transcribed) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.