Title: Portfolio Update — Did Last Week Bring *Two* Seismic Events? Show: Haymaker (Substack) — Portfolio Update, paid Author: David Hay / The Haymaker Team (co-founder & ex-CIO Evergreen Gavekal) Date: 2026-AUG-03 URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/portfolio-update-a5f Length: written post (no timestamps) Note: Written paid Substack Portfolio Update, captured in full via Stephen's logged-in Chrome session and saved verbatim (clean text, real &). Charts are Bloomberg images and were NOT captured — their positions are marked in brackets. The closing Buy List / Holds-Trims / Sells TABLES render as images; they ARE archived alongside this file as hay1.png (Buy List A–H), hay4.png (Buy List I–Y), hay2.png (Holds/Trims A–I), hay3.png (Holds/Trims J–X) and hay5.png (Sells), and are transcribed in the APPENDIX below (transcription, not source text). Blue-highlighted cells in the images indicate that day's rating changes. David Hay runs designated Haymaker portfolios (portfolio.json tracked). ===== Portfolio Update Did Last Week Bring *Two* Seismic Events? HAYMAKER AUG 03, 2026 · PAID Part I Treasury Yields In our view, there were a pair of dramatic developments last week. One was the clear breakout to an 18-year high by the yield on the 30-year U.S. T-bond. The move to 5.27% on Friday raises the very real possibility of taking out the resistance at just under 5.5% that runs all the way back to 2003. [Bloomberg chart] After that, there's a bit of friction at 5.75% with the next line in the sand much higher at 6.75% set in late 1999 when the economy was ripping. In those days, it was being juiced by the Fed's massive liquidity injections to offset the assumed dislocations from Y2K (remember that one?) which never materialized. The late stages of that tech bubble also provided a powerful "wealth effect" which further stimulated the economy. [Bloomberg chart] Of course, yields may soon peak and even begin to ease. But if they don't, a stock market that has been totally unperturbed by the upside range expansion in long-term Treasury yields might suddenly snap to attention. The yield spike that occurred at the end of 1999 undoubtedly played an important role in popping the dot-com bubble back then; however, outrageously high valuations had put the conditions in place for a waterfall decline. The rate surge simply applied the coup de grâce. It's most fortuitous today that there aren't similar valuation extremes, combined with rampant speculative behavior. If you sense a whiff of sarcasm, you detect well. When SpaceX (SPCX) recently hit $225/share, up $90/share, or up almost 70% from its $135 IPO price, its valuation was nearly $2 ½ trillion. This amounted to almost 70 times sales. Showing how quickly bubble-like valuations can reverse, its market cap is down to $1.4 trillion. As many readers are aware, we consider the Price/Sales ratio to be superior to Price/Earnings, the trusty P/E. This is because sales are considerably less volatile than earnings. Further, it's much harder to inflate revenues with accounting gimmickry, like booking enormous gains on share ownership in a company's biggest customers, than it is with reported earnings. As you can see, on a Price/Sales basis, the S&P today looks significantly more overvalued today than it was even at the height of what was, up until then, the biggest bubble in U.S. stock market history. [Bloomberg chart] The reassuring counter-argument presently is that earnings are exceedingly strong. Unfortunately, most of this is due to the AI frenzy and the above-referenced extremely flattering accounting, bordering on circular financing. Note: Several of the biggest tech companies are reporting huge sales to companies in which they have received stock as part of the transaction. They have then been booking enormous gains on those shares, or warrants, as income. It's legal but it is also extremely unsustainable. Another justification is that profit margins have been increasing for years. This has been largely due to the continually swelling profitability of the Magnificent Seven-type names with their network effects and capital-light business models. Yet, a massive shift is that many of these have become highly capital intensive due to the escalating "arms race" to build out data centers. The big hyperscalers are projected to invest some $700 billion in AI capex this year, with estimates for $1 trillion next year. Serious questions are being raised about the ultimate returns on these vast sums. For years, this newsletter has advised its readers to avoid long-term U.S. government bonds. We've feared that a deluge of issuance to fund $2 trillion-type deficits, at a time when the largest foreign buyers have been exiting stage left, was a recipe for a return to much higher yields. Alas, that is no longer a prediction but a reality. It's still an open question, though, if the yield run-up to north of 5% poses a grave risk to the U.S. stock market. It may not, but you should certainly be on alert for that very real possibility. Raising cash right now, particularly in grossly inflated highly valued securities. Part II Japan Another country experiencing surging government bond yields is Japan. This often leads to an appreciating currency, but the polar opposite has happened in the Land of the Sinking Yen. The yen recently hit a 40-year low versus the highly flawed, and overvalued, U.S. dollar. This is despite that Japan's external debt is negligible, it runs a monster current account surplus and it is, on a related basis, the world's largest creditor nation. Again, all of these conditions are a 180° rotation from America's present sorry fiscal and trade status. In Japan's case, the main perpetrator behind its currency's throw-away valuation is the fact that its version of the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), has been pathetically behind the curve when it comes to raising short-term interest rates. In fact, it's sloth-like tightening pace makes the Fed under Jay Powell look like the second coming of America's hyper-aggressive central bank in the Paul Volcker era. This has forced the BOJ to repeatedly intervene in currency markets by selling huge amounts of dollars to buy yen. Thus far, that's been an exercise in futility. Despite that sorry result, on Friday it announced another outsized intervention. What's different this time is that the U.S. Treasury has stated it is also participating in the stabilization effort. We anticipated this coordinated attempt to revive the yen on July 9th when we reiterated our positive — and highly contrarian — stance on Japan's beleaguered currency. (Anyone who took our advice is nicely in the black since then... and it's about time!) These dual announcements triggered a much overdue rally in the extraordinarily oversold yen, causing it to spurt by 4% (and another 1.4% today). This is a big move for a currency in such a short time. Because of how important borrowing in depreciating yen has been to financing trillions of overseas investments, the sudden yen rally was last week's second big financial event These two events, should they continue, have the distinct potential to contribute to market turbulence. Consequently, we remain bullish on the yen as a hedge against global financial markets losing this important source of buying pressure, though we wouldn't chase this rally. The Japanese government's new efforts to bring capital back to its shores could turbocharge the liquidity exodus from offshore markets, a macro risk that appears to be off almost everyone's radar. The global selling tsunami that occurred two years ago due to the yen spike back then indicates this is much more than a theoretical concern. The one-two punch of soaring long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a ripping yen could be a hard blow to the U.S. stock market. The good news, however, is that the BOJ continues to raise rates at a glacial speed. Yet, if that changes, like by the BOJ signaling a much more aggressive stance, that has the potential to cause investors worldwide to remember something they have long forgotten: downside risk. If that changes, this could be a very important development. The Haymaker Team (Blue-highlighted cells indicate today's rating changes) Buy List [IMAGE — hay1.png (AAP–HBRIY) and hay4.png (IJH–YACAF)] Holds/Trims [IMAGE — hay2.png (AA–IJS) and hay3.png (JPM–XAR)] (Note: AEM trim date corrected from 07/20/2026 to 07/13/2026) Sells [IMAGE — hay5.png] ===== APPENDIX — transcription of the published tables (from the archived images; NOT source prose) ===== BUY LIST (Ticker | Price | Cost | % Change | Date | Rating) ★ = blue-highlighted = today's rating change AAP $55.67 $58.78 -5.29% 05/01/2026 B AESI $10.94 $10.09 8.42% 12/02/2025 B AG $15.36 $8.09 89.86% 07/30/2025 B AGI $28.23 $7.06 299.86% 07/11/2022 SB ★ AIG $78.47 $69.82 12.39% 02/26/2024 B ANGPY $12.33 $8.27 49.09% 12/29/2024 SB APA $36.81 $29.91 23.07% 03/02/2026 B BABA $127.69 $162.11 -21.23% 05/14/2026 SB BOLSY $9.21 $9.85 -6.50% 07/13/2026 SB ★ CPNG $16.73 $20.16 -17.01% 05/15/2026 B CPRT $29.31 $27.52 6.50% 07/10/2026 B CRH $97.59 $73.23 33.27% 01/29/2024 B ★ CRH $97.59 $98.51 -0.93% 04/28/2025 B ★ DECK $99.15 $104.58 -5.19% 03/06/2026 B DGX $232.04 $200.29 15.85% 06/05/2026 B EL $84.42 $86.82 -2.76% 05/22/2026 B EQT $53.43 $64.96 -17.75% 03/20/2026 SB ★ EQT $53.43 $57.00 -6.26% 04/20/26 SB ★ EXE $94.76 $77.49 22.29% 09/16/2024 B FANG $198.03 $160.87 23.10% 06/22/2026 B FXI $36.48 $38.42 -5.05% 02/25/2026 SB GDX $75.19 $49.34 52.39% 04/10/2025 B GDXJ $97.33 $60.43 61.06% 04/10/2025 B GOLD $41.64 $47.01 -11.42% 04/24/2026 B HBRIY $3.33 $4.09 -18.58% 04/09/2026 SB IJH $75.99 $62.30 21.97% 06/30/2025 B J $138.85 $128.30 8.22% 05/15/2026 SB KWEB $28.76 $32.24 -10.79% 02/25/2026 SB KRE $77.16 $76.06 1.45% 07/31/2026 B LMT $583.81 $463.87 25.86% 04/15/2024 SB LNC $46.10 $40.25 14.53% 10/13/2025 SB MDT $86.41 $80.20 7.74% 06/12/2026 SB NFG $82.74 $91.03 -9.11% 02/27/2026 SB NHPEF $3.72 $3.74 -0.53% 04/09/2026 SB NTR $65.99 $76.05 -13.23% 03/19/2026 B PALL $22.74 $18.06 25.91% 01/10/2024 B PEP $139.38 $157.06 -11.26% 04/10/2026 B PSLV $18.82 $9.82 91.65% 08/26/2024 SB ★ RRC $40.31 $36.78 9.60% 06/22/2026 B RYAAY $59.58 $53.36 11.66% 05/15/2026 B SHEL $91.34 $74.92 21.92% 10/27/2025 B SLB $49.15 $42.00 17.02% 09/23/2024 B SRUUF $18.97 $18.55 2.26% 11/12/2025 SB UBER $71.28 $84.67 -15.81% 01/12/2026 SB USO $122.44 $114.23 7.19% 06/17/2026 B WDOFF $18.93 $17.95 5.46% 02/11/2026 B WMMVY $28.83 $32.08 -10.13% 03/27/26 B XLE $58.71 $48.38 21.35% 04/01/24 B YACAF $3.81 $5.20 -26.73% 04/09/2026 SB ★ HOLDS/TRIMS (Ticker | Price | Cost | % Change | Date | Rating | Trim Date(s)) AA $44.50 $36.79 20.96% 06/29/2026 H ACN $167.71 $178.31 -5.94% 05/08/2026 H ★ AEM $146.76 $97.04 51.24% 02/10/2025 H 07/13/2026 (trim date corrected from 07/20/2026) AR $36.28 $27.44 32.22% 09/16/2024 H BA $232.38 $209.89 10.72% 07/13/2026 H BTU $21.70 $13.72 58.16% 03/24/2025 H CB $347.10 $250.90 38.34% 02/12/2024 H CDE $15.35 $6.63 131.52% 12/02/2024 H CHKP $123.86 $158.73 -21.97% 01/08/2024 H CKHUY $9.27 $6.78 36.73% 11/10/2025 H/T 07/20/26 CLF $11.17 $10.21 9.40% 12/09/2024 H COPX $79.30 $46.67 69.92% 08/25/2025 H CSCO $115.95 $53.50 116.73% 09/30/2024 H/T 04/23/26 CVE $29.43 $15.25 92.98% 12/09/2024 H DAL $91.39 $50.44 81.19% 06/03/2024 H/T 06/29/26 EEM $64.30 $46.12 39.42% 05/27/2025 H/T 05/22/26 EQNR $39.88 $22.59 76.54% 12/22/2025 H EWJ $92.90 $69.26 34.13% 04/29/2024 H EWS $29.51 $18.21 62.05% 04/15/2024 H EWZ $36.41 $28.21 29.07% 08/07/2024 H FNV $214.01 $125.82 70.09% 12/09/2024 H FSLR $234.01 $133.03 75.91% 03/17/2025 H GOOG $373.86 $168.68 121.64% 07/22/2024 T 03/23/2026 HBM $23.24 $10.46 122.18% 07/14/2025 H HCC $79.48 $53.23 49.31% 01/27/2025 H HP $33.84 $37.92 -10.76% 05/06/24 H IBKR $87.53 $21.70 303.36% 01/08/2024 T 03/23/26 IJS $138.00 $86.27 59.96% 04/07/2025 H JPM $351.38 $175.65 100.05% 01/16/2024 H MO $68.15 $49.71 37.10% 10/25/2024 H MTB $248.58 $187.34 32.69% 09/23/2025 H ★ NE $40.53 $31.83 27.33% 02/10/2025 H NEM $94.67 $42.21 124.28% 06/04/2024 H NHYDY $9.17 $7.35 24.76% 12/08/2025 H NOW $115.71 $102.00 13.44% 04/03/2026 H/T 06/05/26 PALAF $6.75 $4.93 36.92% 12/09/2024 H PARR $83.58 $16.18 416.56% 12/09/2024 T 03/23/26 PBR $19.05 $11.85 60.76% 12/31/2025 H/T 08/03/26 QNST $15.75 $11.25 40.00% 02/13/2026 H RIG $5.14 $3.74 37.43% 02/10/2025 H RTX $216.58 $113.95 90.07% 07/22/2024 H 09/18/25 SBSW $8.86 $4.76 86.13% 07/08/2024 H STT $183.09 $112.95 62.10% 09/04/2025 H TMUS $176.92 $164.27 7.70% 01/29/2024 H TRV $373.24 $327.37 14.01% 6/26/2026 H ★ URNJ $22.30 $18.22 22.39% 09/04/2024 H VAL $76.98 $47.72 61.32% 02/10/2025 H XAR $272.17 $220.00 23.71% 08/27/2025 H SELLS (Ticker | Cost | Price at Sale | Gain % | Sell Date | Price now | % Change since) EWY $68.19 $181.98 166.87% 05/06/2026 $159.80 -57.33% GS $460.18 $1,076.17 133.86% 06/15/2026 $1,017.77 -54.79% IBM $188.00 $280.82 49.37% 06/08/2026 $227.90 -17.51% XOM $114.30 $154.22 34.93% 03/02/2026 $155.44 -26.47%