Title: Haymaker Daily — Another Golden Opportunity? Show: Haymaker (Substack) — written post Author: David Hay / Haymaker Team (abbreviated re-posting of Kevin "The Macro Tourist" Muir's Aug 8 edition, "Sometimes Trading Is That Simple: Long Gold Again") Date: 2026-08-12 URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-47e Length: written post — no timestamps Note: Verbatim article text captured via logged-in session (paid post). Haymaker frames + endorses excerpts of Kevin Muir's gold piece; chart from Adam Taggart on GDX. Disclosures boilerplate omitted. =====
Hello, Haymakers:
Today, we're long on gold. Literally — this is a long Daily on gold. Despite the hefty word count by the standards of our usual format, the material below is actually an abbreviated re-posting of Kevin "The Macro Tourist" Muir's August 8th edition, titled Sometimes Trading Is That Simple: Long Gold Again. As most Haymakeristas are aware, we hold Kevin in the highest regard for his exceptional economic and market insights.
We've cut this down considerably, but the major points are well represented. Even so, we recommend you subscribe to the 'Tourist's newsletter to absorb the piece in full and receive all the others to come. As you'll soon read, Kevin is making a convincing case for gold, and the miners thereof, based on a very simple reading of the market. It's one with which we agree strongly enough to broadcast the main thesis here with the caveat that both bullion and the miners have had a snappy rally of late. (We gave readers a timely AGI, Alamos Gold, Buy alert on July 27th, and it's popped about 15% since then.)
Here's a chart another great friend of Team Haymaker, Adam Taggart, sent us yesterday, which suggests that any pull-back on GDX, the leading gold miner ETF, should render it an accumulation candidate.
We've cut Kevin's piece down considerably, but the major points are well represented. Even so, we recommend you subscribe to the 'Tourist's newsletter to absorb the material in full and receive all the posts to come. As you'll soon read, Kevin is making a strong case for gold based on a very simple reading of the market. It's one with which we agree strongly enough to broadcast the main thesis here. As always, do yourself the favor of additional research, but if a gold buy ends up serving you well, be sure to let us know.
The Haymaker Team
MacroTourist excerpts follow:
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I have long counseled that China doesn't want the price of gold to rise too much too quickly. If the price of gold runs hard, they would likely walk away. They are interested in buying as much gold as they can over the next decade. They want to accumulate it for as little as possible, not drive it higher over the next year. That's why when sentiment turned overwhelmingly bullish among western buyers, it worried me. China doesn't want to compete with those buyers. The Chinese have zero interest in letting hedge funds and other speculators move up the price of gold, and then sell it back to China for a profit. That's why the Chinese weren't going to participate in the mania.
However, over the last six months, the speculative fervor has broken. Everyone who bought gold in the final frenzy months of 2025 is now offside. And into this new found pessimism, China has quietly begun buying again.
I like to isolate China as the main buyer, but this past quarter, it was actually Poland leading the charge.
However, please remember that China has no interest in letting the West know how much gold it is buying. Don't forget, their mission is to buy as much as they can for as little as possible over the next decade. Making their moves too transparent allows hedge funds and other speculators to front-run their purchases. It's probably safe to assume whatever they announce officially is just a fraction of their actual buying.
But, China and other central banks returning with blue tickets is not enough of a reason to buy extra gold again. These whales have been softening the decline for some time now, yet gold has been steadily falling over the past few months.
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Some folks are surprised by gold's strength, but in reality, it's been behaving better for the past month. One of my favourite market quotes comes from Bruce Kovner and it's perfectly applicable to gold over the last month.
What is "supposed" to drive the price of gold?
Real interest rates and the US dollar.
For most of the summer, the US dollar was rising and real interest rates were spiking higher, yet the price of gold refused to break below 4000. Gold was telling you that it was being accumulated.
And then, when the technical levels were broken to the upside — whether it was the 50-day moving average or the downward trendline — bearish traders were forced to cover, and the next thing you knew, gold was 350 dollars higher.
Sometimes trading is that simple.
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Back at the end of 2025, it seemed like everyone was bullish precious metals. Folks asked me what I thought, and I admitted that I didn't have any value to add. After all, I am more interested in the investments that are on Page 17 of the newspaper on their way to Page 1. At that point, gold and silver had been on Page 1 every day for a month! There was nothing more to say. It was a mania, and it would end when it ended, and not a moment sooner.
Contrast that to today. Few care about gold. They are more interested in semiconductor and memory stocks.
And to get a sense of the apathy towards gold, we can observe the skew in the gold option market. Gold is different from equities in that investors pay more for calls than puts (in volatility terms) because they view the risk of gold spiking higher as larger than it crashing.
Sometimes, the 1-yr 25-delta call will trade 10 vol points higher than the 25-delta puts!
Usually, the 1-yr 25-delta call skew is around 3 or 4 vol points, but this past month, it dropped to the lowest since before COVID!
[Chart: GLD 1-yr 25-delta call implied with skew over the past 13 years (courtesy of Bloomberg)]
Gold sentiment is so beaten up, no one is paying up for right-tail risk. That's the kind of environment that makes me like gold all the more!
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Apart from the depths of the GFC and the apathy of the 2011-13 period, gold stocks have never been this cheap! They are trading at 11x!
And yeah, I can hear the argument already: when commodities turn down, the P/E gets cheap because earnings are headed a lot lower. I understand that argument, but the reality is that all of that gold decline is already in the earnings! They have declined with gold. And not only that, analysts were previously slow to raise the price of gold in their models. My guess is that if gold stabilizes here, analysts will raise estimates, and EPS will bottom. And then, once they bottom, all of a sudden, 11x looks cheap!
[Chart: AMEX Gold Bug Index with NTM EPS and P/E over the past year (courtesy of Bloomberg)]
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Well, I can feel the rush again. I am buying gold, platinum, and a bunch of different gold mining stocks. I think the gold bull market resumed this week. And if I am wrong… just remember Paul's other famous line: "Losers average losers."
Thanks for reading, Kevin Muir the MacroTourist