Title: Portfolio Update — One "HAL" of an Opportunity Show: Haymaker (Substack, paid post) Author: David Hay / The Haymaker Team Date: 2026-08-31 (AUG 31, 2026 — Monday Portfolio Update) URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/portfolio-update-fd6 Length: written post — no timestamps Note: Written Substack post (no video). Body text captured verbatim from the paid post via Stephen's logged-in session; chart images (five-year price charts and five-year Price/Sales & P/E ratio charts for HAL and SLB, all Bloomberg) not reproduced. Standard Haymaker legal disclosures omitted. The Buys / Holds-Trims / Sells portfolio tables were published as images at the end of the post and are transcribed below under "Portfolio tables (transcribed from images)". Hello, Haymakers: Last Friday, Donald Trump's typically bombastic declaration of "THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN HISTORY!" naturally generated intense media interest. He went on to say: "This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future." If you were dozing off at the time, like by watching another Seattle Mariners blow-out loss, he was referring to the country with the world's largest oil reserves: Venezuela. Secretary of State Marco Rubio elaborated that this deal would bring in $100 billion of private investment. Realists should, as the word implies, realize the fruits of this supposed transaction won't manifest overnight. More likely, it will take a decade or so before they are ready for harvest. In the here and now, there are considerable obstacles, including the not inconsequential detail that selling Venezuela's oil reserves to a foreign entity violates its constitution. (It does not, however, ban entering into joint ventures and production-sharing arrangements.) Additionally, overseas oil companies have a bitter aftertaste from decades of having their assets in Venezuela appropriated and/or nationalized. Years of convoluted litigation ensued, and even when companies like Exxon won judgement via international courts, Venezuela's destitute financial condition made collection nearly impossible. In other words, they may not hurry back, despite the mammoth upside. A cynic could view this as the latest move by the Trump administration to depress oil prices in the run-up to the mid-term elections. This would be consistent with their steady stream of social media posts declaring the Strait of Hormuz open, or soon to be (many of which were front-run by not-so-mysterious insiders). Because of the chronologically distant nature of any restart of Venezuela's dilapidated oil and gas infrastructure, meaningful production gains are unlikely to have any practical impact on current oil prices. On the other hand, a big winner from this deal, if it actually happens in some form, might be U.S. oil service companies. There are two that are the subject of this week's portfolio update: Halliburton (HAL) and Schlumberger (SLB). We'll look at HAL first since it has been a recent highlight and it's also been stuck in the drilling mud. HAL As you can see from the following chart, its share price has struggled to achieve a new multi-year high. It has repeatedly topped out around $43. We opined back in May that this time might be different. [Chart: Five-Year Price Chart (overhead resistance displayed) — Bloomberg] But, alas, a sharp slide in oil prices, and a guarded outlook in conjunction with its second quarter earnings release, knocked it back into the low-30s in late July. Since then, it has been working its way higher, including in a soft tape today. As you can also observe from the next visual, HAL has rarely traded as inexpensively as it is now on a P/E basis. Admittedly, using the Price/Sales ratio, it looks cheap, but not as decidedly. However, it is certainly fair to say that oil service industry conditions remain far from boom times. Therefore, neither revenues nor profits are maxed out; in fact, we'd argue they are far from peak levels. [Chart: Five-Year Price/Sales and P/E Ratios — Bloomberg] Besides the need for vast sums to be invested in resuscitating Venezuela's oil industry, regardless of who eventually finances that effort, there is the more pressing issue of repairing the Middle East's war-ravaged production facilities. Moreover, this newsletter continues to be totally convinced that oil supplies have, indeed, been enormously depleted after the steady string of attacks on said facilities, plus the loss of around half of the normal shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. (It continues to amaze us how many deny this virtually inescapable reality.) The bottom line is that this has been the greatest oil-supply shock in history. Consequently, those companies, like HAL, that have the unique set of capabilities to rebuild global oil stocks should have a number of robust operating years ahead of them. SLB The same is also true of Schlumberger (SLB). While originally founded in France in the 1920s, its headquarters are now in Houston. Whatever the location of its corporate command center, it may be the most international of all global oil service companies. Perhaps that's the reason it has performed considerably better than HAL this year, possibly because investors feel it can better capitalize on the Mid-East rebuild. (SLB is up a roaring 52% in 2025 versus a still very respectable 30% for HAL; take that, S&P 500!) It also has a thriving digital division, with some asserting it is increasingly a software company in drag. SLB's share price has broken above shorter-term resistance and may be in the process of taking out the ceiling going back almost three years. It's also not far from making a new five-year high. If so, that would be a highly bullish development in our book. [Chart: Five-Year Price Chart (overhead resistance displayed) — Bloomberg] As is readily apparent from the chart below, SLB's not nearly as inexpensive as is HAL. Yet, relative to its own history, it is underpriced, particularly on a P/E basis. For many years, SLB traded at a significant premium to the S&P 500. Presently, it's at a slight discount. You can also see from the above price chart for SLB, it has experienced a considerable amount of volatility in recent years. Fortunately, this newsletter has played those swings quite well (and we hope many of you have followed our lead with this name). In August of 2022, we expressed our fondness for the oil service group in general, and SLB, in particular, when it was at $36. Come October of that year, when it was ~$50, we advised some profit-taking. In July of 2023, we again advised some gain-harvesting with the oil service stocks and SLB. We did so once more in early September, 2023, at even higher prices. Fast-forwarding to April of 2025, SLB was all the way back down to $32 1/2 where we pointed out it was as cheap as it had ever been at a sub-10 P/E. We opined that the risk/reward appeared "highly favorable". We reinforced that positive appraisal in December of last year when it was $37. By January of this year, it was back up to $50 and, as of mid-May, it was $57. From there, it sold off hard, sliding quickly to $45, before its latest run-up to nearly $60. At this point, harvesting some of the latest appreciation might make sense, and an obvious redeployment candidate is HAL. However, we wouldn't, by any means, suggest exiting SLB in full. Breaking above $60 could, and should, happen, likely leading to additional gains. At this point, though, we suspect there's more near-term upside with HAL. In our view, both it and HAL are poised to experience that happy combination of rising earnings and expanding P/E ratios. [Chart: Five-Year Price/Sales and P/E Ratios — Bloomberg] The Haymaker Team ================================================================================ Portfolio tables (transcribed from images) ================================================================================ The Buys, Holds/Trims and Sells tables were published as images at the end of the post. Transcribed below. Ratings: B = Buy, SB = Strong Buy, H = Hold, T = Trim, H/T = Hold/Trim. Cells highlighted in cyan on the images mark this issue's changes and are flagged with [HIGHLIGHTED]. --- BUYS (Ticker / Price / Cost / % Change / Date / Rating) --- AAP $42.05 $58.78 -28.46% 05/01/2026 B AESI $13.19 $10.09 30.72% 12/02/2025 B AG $20.43 $8.09 152.53% 07/30/2025 B AGI $36.33 $7.06 414.59% 07/11/2022 B AIG $76.54 $69.82 9.62% 02/26/2024 B ANGPY $14.26 $8.27 72.43% 12/29/2025 SB BABA $114.29 $162.11 -29.50% 05/14/2026 B BOLSY $9.39 $9.85 -4.67% 07/13/2026 SB CPNG $15.97 $20.16 -20.78% 05/15/2026 SB CPRT $33.10 $27.52 20.28% 07/10/2026 B CRH $94.64 $73.23 29.24% 01/29/2024 SB [HIGHLIGHTED] CRH $94.64 $98.51 -3.93% 04/28/2025 SB DECK $87.82 $104.58 -16.03% 03/06/2026 B EOG $144.45 $133.25 8.41% 06/17/2026 SB [HIGHLIGHTED] EQT $54.22 $64.96 -16.53% 03/20/2026 SB EQT $54.22 $57.00 -4.88% 04/20/26 SB EWZ $35.95 $28.21 27.44% 08/07/2024 B EXE $98.59 $77.49 27.23% 09/16/2024 B EXE $98.59 $92.98 6.03% 05/29/2026 B FANG $198.96 $160.87 23.68% 06/22/2026 B FXI $35.44 $38.42 -7.76% 02/25/2026 SB GILD $146.29 $133.21 9.82% 08/07/2025 B GNRC $185.53 $186.18 -0.35% 08/28/2026 B [HIGHLIGHTED] GOLD $44.79 $47.01 -4.72% 04/24/2026 SB HAL $36.79 -- -- 08/31/2026 SB [HIGHLIGHTED — NEW THIS ISSUE] HBRIY $3.64 $4.09 -11.00% 04/09/2026 SB IJH $75.25 $62.30 20.79% 06/30/2025 B J $150.48 $128.30 17.29% 05/15/2026 B KWEB $25.93 $32.24 -19.57% 02/25/2026 SB KRE $73.54 $76.06 -3.31% 07/31/2026 B LNC $42.74 $40.25 6.19% 10/13/2025 SB MDT $90.62 $80.20 12.99% 06/12/2026 B NFG $83.10 $91.03 -8.71% 02/27/2026 SB NHPEF $4.25 $3.74 13.64% 04/09/2026 SB NTR $74.91 $76.05 -1.50% 03/19/2026 B PALL $24.73 $18.85 31.19% 04/15/2024 SB PALL $24.73 $23.93 3.34% 04/16/2024 SB PBR $19.26 $11.85 62.53% 12/31/2025 B PEP $140.11 $157.06 -10.79% 04/10/2026 SB PSLV $21.69 $9.82 120.88% 08/26/2024 SB RRC $41.42 $36.78 12.62% 06/22/2026 SB RYAAY $55.47 $53.36 3.95% 05/15/2026 B SHEL $91.41 $74.92 22.01% 10/27/2025 B SRUUF $20.00 $18.55 7.82% 11/12/2025 B UBER $76.05 $84.67 -10.18% 01/12/2026 SB USO $133.55 $114.23 16.91% 06/17/2026 B WDOFF $23.76 $9.36 153.85% 12/02/2024 B WDOFF $23.76 $17.95 32.37% 02/11/2026 B WMMVY $27.57 $32.08 -14.06% 03/27/26 B YACAF $4.39 $5.20 -15.58% 04/09/2026 SB --- HOLDS / TRIMS (Ticker / Price / Cost / % Change / Date / Rating) --- AA $49.79 $36.79 35.34% 06/29/2026 H ACN $191.05 $178.31 7.14% 05/08/2026 H/T AEM $203.29 $97.04 109.49% 02/10/2025 H APA $42.78 $29.91 43.03% 03/02/2026 H AR $38.54 $27.44 40.45% 09/16/2024 H BA $206.82 $209.89 -1.46% 07/13/2026 H BTU $29.65 $13.72 116.11% 03/24/2025 H CB $339.18 $250.90 35.19% 02/12/2024 H CDE $20.72 $6.63 212.52% 12/02/2024 H CHKP $139.22 $158.73 -12.29% 01/08/2024 H CKHUY $8.93 $6.78 31.71% 11/10/2025 H/T CLF $11.58 $10.21 13.42% 12/09/2024 H COPX $92.67 $46.67 98.56% 08/25/2025 H/T CSCO $110.68 $53.50 106.88% 09/30/2024 H/T CVE $31.88 $15.25 109.05% 12/09/2024 H DAL $78.06 $50.44 54.76% 06/03/2024 H/T DGX $241.38 $200.29 20.52% 06/05/2026 H DVN $48.07 $36.29 32.46% 01/20/2026 H [HIGHLIGHTED] EEM $66.86 $46.12 44.97% 05/27/2025 H/T EL $102.56 $86.82 18.13% 05/22/2026 H [HIGHLIGHTED] EQNR $42.71 $22.59 89.07% 12/22/2025 H/T EWJ $95.70 $69.26 38.17% 04/29/2024 H EWS $29.51 $18.21 62.05% 04/15/2024 H FNV $262.86 $125.82 108.92% 12/09/2024 H FSLR $202.40 $133.03 52.15% 03/17/2025 H GDX $98.14 $49.34 98.91% 04/10/2025 H GDXJ $127.25 $60.43 110.57% 04/10/2025 H/T [HIGHLIGHTED] GOOG $334.61 $168.68 98.37% 07/22/2024 H HBM $28.69 $10.46 174.28% 07/14/2025 H/T HCC $108.94 $53.23 104.66% 01/27/2025 H/T HP $43.59 $37.92 14.95% 05/06/24 H IBKR $96.77 $21.70 345.94% 01/08/2024 T IJS $136.47 $86.27 58.19% 04/07/2025 H JPM $355.20 $175.65 102.22% 01/16/2024 H LMT $561.81 $463.87 21.11% 04/15/2024 H MO $68.65 $49.71 38.10% 10/25/2024 H MTB $233.49 $187.34 24.63% 09/23/2025 H NE $45.84 $31.83 44.02% 02/10/2025 H NEM $125.73 $42.21 197.87% 06/04/2024 T NHYDY $10.10 $7.35 37.41% 12/08/2025 H NOW $148.05 $102.00 45.15% 04/03/2026 H/T PALAF $8.18 $4.93 65.92% 12/09/2024 H PARR $76.78 $16.18 374.54% 12/09/2024 T QNST $19.15 $11.25 70.22% 02/13/2026 H RIG $5.77 $3.74 54.28% 02/10/2025 H RTX $209.02 $113.95 83.43% 07/22/2024 T SBSW $11.84 $4.76 148.74% 07/08/2024 H SLB $59.47 $42.00 41.60% 09/23/2024 H/T [HIGHLIGHTED] STT $191.53 $112.95 69.57% 09/04/2025 H TMUS $181.27 $164.27 10.35% 01/29/2024 H TRV $367.24 $327.37 12.18% 6/26/2026 H URNJ $25.68 $18.22 40.94% 09/04/2024 H VAL $85.70 $47.72 79.59% 02/10/2025 H XAR $256.14 $220.00 16.43% 08/27/2025 H XLE $63.53 $48.38 31.31% 04/01/24 H --- SELLS (Ticker / Cost / Price at Sale / Gain % / Sell Date / Price) --- EWY $68.19 $181.98 166.87% 05/06/2026 $179.83 GS $460.18 $1,076.17 133.86% 06/15/2026 $1,027.86 IBM $188.00 $280.82 49.37% 06/08/2026 $234.88 XOM $114.30 $154.22 34.93% 03/02/2026 $160.64