David Hay — Haymaker Daily: "Watts" happening with the great data-center build-out? — US data-center power demand vs China; combined-cycle gas turbines in short supply, small modular nuclear essential (Jul 2 2026)

One-line take: A macro/energy Daily on the electricity bottleneck behind the AI data-center boom — no named securities. The US dominates data centers (4,423 vs the UK's ~470 and China's 369), with 700 more facilities under construction and ~1,500 on the drawing board. But Haymaker warns China "will be aggressively seeking to narrow this gap" because its electricity production is growing far faster — much of it coal (it has installed more renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined, but that needs coal/gas back-up), and it already produces twice as much electricity as the US while leading the world in new nuclear construction. His conclusion: it's "imperative for America to become far more serious about building out" generation. The newsletter's standing view is that combined-cycle natural-gas plants will be the main solution — but "the turbines that are the guts of these power sources remain in severely short supply." That shortage is "another reason smaller next-generation nuclear reactors are becoming essential": at least 10 companies (unnamed) have achieved or are near reactor criticality, some hoping to announce by the US 250th anniversary and to produce meaningful power next year. No tickers are given (the ~10 SMR companies are not named) — so no stock table; this feeds the master energy/electricity macro theme.

1. Talking points

The US leads data centers ~10:1 — for now

Even before finishing the 700 facilities under construction (with ~1,500 more planned), America has nearly 10× as many data centers as the second-place UK.
The count: US 4,423 vs China a surprising fifth at just 369.

China's edge: electricity is growing much faster

"It's a high-odds bet that China will be aggressively seeking to narrow this gap." Its biggest advantage is that electricity production is increasing much faster than in the US, "much of it generated by coal."
China has "installed more renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined," but intermittent wind and solar "often require coal and/or natural-gas back-up."

The scale gap: China already makes 2× the US's power

China is "additionally leading the planet in the construction of new atomic energy plants and already produces twice as much electricity as does America."
Its willingness to burn coal — "versus the West's understandable reluctance to burn this dirty fuel" — means that as data-center electricity demand climbs worldwide, "China will likely gain an escalating advantage."

Haymaker's solution #1: combined-cycle gas — but the turbines are scarce

It's "imperative for America to become far more serious about building out the electricity-generating capabilities essential to power its data-center fleet."
"It continues to be the view of this newsletter that combined-cycle natural gas plants will be the main solution" — however, "the turbines that are the guts of these power sources remain in severely short supply."

Solution #2: small modular reactors are becoming essential

The turbine shortage is "another reason smaller next-generation nuclear reactors are becoming essential to America's energy future."
"At least 10 companies" have achieved reactor criticality on an experimental basis (using small reactors) or are close; several "hope to announce this achievement on or before this nation's 250th anniversary," and some plan to produce meaningful electricity next year — "may be the USA's best option to narrow China's commanding lead in electricity generation." (No companies are named.)

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.