Title:   Haymaker Daily — "Watts" happening with the great data-center build-out?
Show:    Haymaker (Substack) — Haymaker Daily, paid
Guest:   David Hay (Haymaker; co-founder/ex-CIO Evergreen Gavekal)
Date:    2026-JUL-02
URL:     https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-d3c
Length:  written post (no timestamps)
Note:    Macro/energy note (data-center electricity demand, China vs US, gas turbines, small modular nuclear). No named securities -> key-points page, no stock table. Body reproduced for personal study.

Hello, Haymakers:

The U.S. is by far the leader in the frenetic data center arms race. Even prior to the completion of 700 additional facilities currently under construction, with another 1,500 or so on the drawing boards, America has nearly 10 times as many as the second-leading country, the UK. Surprisingly, China is fifth, at a mere 369 data centers, versus the U.S. with its 4,423.

However, it's a high-odds bet that China will be aggressively seeking to narrow this gap. One immense advantage it has in this regard is that its electricity production is increasing much faster than in the U.S., much of it generated by coal. For certain, China has also deployed renewables at a world-leading scale, but those often require coal and/or natural-gas back-up to deal with the intermittent nature of wind and solar. In fact, it has installed more renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined.

Based on the steep increase in worldwide electricity demand from data centers, China will likely gain an escalating advantage. In no small part that's due to its willingness to utilize coal versus the West's understandable reluctance to burn this dirty fuel to produce power. The Middle Kingdom is additionally leading the planet in the construction of new atomic energy plants and already produces twice as much electricity as does America.

Consequently, it is imperative for America to become far more serious about building out the electricity-generating capabilities essential to power its data-center fleet. It continues to be the view of this newsletter that combined-cycle natural gas plants will be the main solution to meeting this critical challenge. However, the turbines that are the guts of these power sources remain in severely short supply.

This is another reason smaller next-generation nuclear reactors are becoming essential to America's energy future. Fortunately, there are at least 10 companies that have either achieved criticality on an experimental basis, using small reactors, or are close to it; several hope to announce this achievement on or before this nation's 250th anniversary. Further, some are planning to produce meaningful amounts of electricity next year, hopefully demonstrating the viability of this technology. This may be the USA's best option to narrow China's commanding lead in electricity generation.

Happy 250th birthday, America!

The Haymaker Team