David Hay — Haymaker Daily: An Extremely Critical Development
A short nuclear Daily: microreactor startup Aalo Atomics (positively profiled in March) achieved test-reactor criticality over the July-4 weekend — one of only four companies to do so — while rival SMR maker Valar demonstrated full temperature and power conversion (FTPC) and signed a 30MW contract to power an Nvidia data center. Hay's read: a sneak preview of nuclear supplementing/replacing natural gas as the primary data-center fuel — tempered by years-long NRC licensing that could erase Valar's lead.
One-line take: A nuclear-microreactor Daily reporting two milestones that Hay frames as "a sneak preview of what the future holds for powering data centers." (1) Aalo Atomics — the microreactor startup Haymaker positively profiled in March — announced over the July-4 weekend that its test reactor achieved criticality, joining "just three other companies" to have done so. (2) Its rival Valar notched "an even more ambitious milestone," demonstrating full temperature and power conversion (FTPC), and signed a contract to supply 30 MW of atomic power to an Nvidia (NVDA) data center. The frame: nuclear increasingly supplementing and/or replacing natural gas as the primary data-center fuel. The caveat: NRC licensing runs years, so even a 50%-compressed timeline means Valar's lead "could well diminish or outright vanish" over months-long approval testing. Aalo is a true microreactor company (its reactors ~⅕ the size of Valar's SMRs) whose small size lends itself to mass production and truck delivery; the market is big enough for multiple designs. A "significant positive for America" that "can't happen soon enough" given China's enormous lead in deploying nuclear. Both private names are Positive; NVDA is a neutral reference (the contract counterparty).
1. Stocks & names mentioned
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| Aalo Atomics | Aalo Atomics (private) — microreactor startup | — | Positive | Positively profiled by Haymaker in March; over the July-4 weekend its test reactor achieved criticality, joining "just three other companies" to attain "an objective that not long ago seemed well out of reach." A true microreactor company (vs an SMR) whose small reactors "lend themselves to mass production, as well as delivery on the same trucks that transport standard containers" — an advantage in the "exciting race" Haymaker expects. | read ↗ |
| Valar | Valar (private) — small modular reactor (SMR) maker | — | Positive | Aalo's rival; "notched an even more ambitious milestone" by demonstrating full temperature and power conversion (FTPC) and signing a contract to provide 30 MW of atomic power to one of Nvidia's data centers. Positioned in SMRs (reactors "at least five times larger" than Aalo's micros). Caveat: NRC licensing "typically measured in years," so its "laudable and impressive" lead "could well diminish or outright vanish over the course of months-long NRC approval testing." | read ↗ |
| NVDA | Nvidia | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference only — the counterparty to Valar's atomic-power milestone: Valar "signed a contract with Nvidia to provide 30 megawatts (MW) of atomic power to one of NVDA's data centers." Cited to illustrate nuclear entering the data-center power stack, not an argued call on NVDA here. | read ↗ |
"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post. Aalo Atomics and Valar are private (no ticker; Research = —). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Talking points
Aalo Atomics — test-reactor criticality, one of only four to get there
- The microreactor startup, positively profiled by Haymaker in March, announced over the 4th-of-July weekend that its test reactor achieved criticality.
- It "joins just three other companies in having attained an objective that not long ago seemed well out of reach."
Valar — FTPC and a 30MW Nvidia data-center contract
- Aalo's rival Valar "notched an even more ambitious milestone" by demonstrating full temperature and power conversion (FTPC).
- It also signed a contract with Nvidia to provide 30 MW of atomic power to one of NVDA's data centers — "likely a sneak preview of what the future holds for powering data centers."
The frame — nuclear supplementing/replacing gas as the data-center fuel
- Hay reads these milestones as nuclear increasingly supplementing and/or replacing natural gas as the primary data-center fuel source.
The caveat — NRC licensing runs years
- "NRC licensing processes are typically measured in years." Hay is "hopeful" red tape gets cut — "maybe compress the regulatory-approval timeframe by, say, 50% or so" — but safety and viability stress-testing are "essential components in an industry this technologically intensive."
- Bottom line: Valar's lead "could well diminish or outright vanish over the course of months-long NRC approval testing."
Micro vs SMR — different designs, one enormous market
- Aalo is "truly a microreactor company versus a small modular reactor (SMR) enterprise." Valar sits in SMRs, and "despite the 'small' in SMR its reactors are at least five times larger than Aalo's."
- "The market is so enormous that there is ample room for multiple designs, with each having certain advantages and drawbacks." Aalo's smaller reactors lend themselves to mass production and truck delivery "on the same trucks that transport standard containers."
Why it matters — America vs China's nuclear lead
- The "heated competition… at the vanguard of this nuclear renaissance has the potential to be a significant positive for America."
- "It can't happen soon enough based on China's enormous lead in deploying new nuclear power plants," as prior Haymakers have chronicled.
3. In plain English
A jargon-free note on the two private nuclear startups. (Companion to the table above; renders on each name's consolidated page.)
Aalo Atomics — microreactor startup Positive
Aalo Atomics is a private company building "microreactors" — nuclear reactors small enough to be factory-built and shipped, rather than constructed on-site over many years like a traditional power plant. The news here is a real engineering milestone: its test reactor reached "criticality," meaning it sustained a controlled nuclear chain reaction for the first time — the threshold that proves the design actually works. Only four companies have gotten this far. Hay first flagged Aalo favorably in March and stays positive. Its edge is size: because its reactors are so small (about a fifth the size of a rival SMR), they can be mass-produced on an assembly line and delivered on ordinary shipping-container trucks — which could make them cheap and fast to deploy where data centers need power. There's no way for a retail investor to buy it (it's private), so this is a thesis to watch, not a tradeable stock.
Valar — small modular reactor (SMR) maker Positive
Valar is a private rival to Aalo building "small modular reactors" (SMRs) — still factory-built, but roughly five times larger than Aalo's microreactors. It hit an even more advanced milestone ("full temperature and power conversion," i.e. it actually produced usable power at operating temperature) and, crucially, signed a real commercial deal: 30 megawatts of nuclear power to run one of Nvidia's data centers. That contract is the tell in the whole post — it shows AI data-center operators starting to buy nuclear power directly, which is why Hay reads nuclear as beginning to supplement or replace natural gas as the fuel behind the AI build-out. The catch he stresses: getting a reactor licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission takes years, so Valar's head start could shrink or disappear during the long approval process — a lead on the engineering isn't yet a lead in the market. Private, so not directly investable.
Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.