David Hay — Portfolio Update: Hold for (Possible) Take-Off — Boeing (BA) moved Buy → Hold for the 2027-28 FCF ramp; BOLSY reiterated bullish; EWZ referenced (Haymaker, Jul 13 2026)

One-line take: Hay moves Boeing (BA) from Buy to Hold for the 2027-28 cash-flow ramp. The turnaround is genuinely working — 737 MAX production climbing from 38/mo toward 47 (guided to 52 by early 2027), Q2 deliveries ~167 (beat), free cash flow inflected positive ($375M in Q4-2025) and guided to $1-3B in 2026 on a multi-year ramp toward ~$6.8B (2027) and ~$10.5B (2028), all behind a >5,000-jet MAX backlog and an Airbus duopoly. But the recovery timeline has lengthened on every front (777X entry to 2027+, Commercial Airplanes' return to profitability slipped to 2027, a costly Spirit AeroSystems reacquisition, $47-51B debt, dividend/buybacks off the table), the stock is valued entirely on future FCF (trailing P/E >100 — a turnaround "quirk"), and headline risk (China, litigation) keeps resetting the mood — so with "very little valuation cushion for a stumble," he'd hold, not add, and wait for better entries on a strike/FAA/delivery setback. On a 20-25× multiple, 2028 FCF pencils to ~$275-345/share, but only if the ramp executes. Watch the July 28 Q2 print, the SPEEA labor talks into October, and the FAA directive; thesis-breakers = a prolonged engineers' strike, a quality glitch, or the FCF ramp slipping. Separately, he reiterates and "amps up" the bull case on Brasil Bolsa Balcão (BOLSY) — Brazil's exchange operator, down ~8.5% (BOLSY's own swoon ~25%) despite robust Q1 earnings on Brazilian-market weakness, at trough P/S and P/E with a ~5% dividend; a discount to global exchange peers (20×+) tied to Brazil's single-digit-P/E market and record-high real rates he expects to fall. EWZ (the Brazil ETF, where he took profits earlier this year) is referenced only for contrast (off ~15% from its April apex, a smaller drop than BOLSY's).

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What he said	At
BOLSY	Brasil Bolsa Balcão (B3 ADR)	QT · SA	Positive	Reiterated and "amped up." The owner of Brazil's leading exchanges has dipped ~8.5% since the initial highlight (its own swoon ~25%) despite "extremely robust first quarter earnings" — the likely culprit is Brazilian-market weakness (commodity-linked), "rather than a company-specific set of problems." At trough valuations on both Price/Sales and P/E with a ~5% dividend ("we suspect it will be north of that"). A "serious correction" after multi-year breakouts over overhead resistance = a better entry. Exchange operators are outstanding long-term performers trading "20x earnings or more"; BOLSY's discount ties to Brazil's single-digit-P/E market, driven by the highest real rates "of any major economy" — which Hay expects to fall "in a big way," triggering "a massive bull market in Brazilian equities." Risk: a Lula re-election (age 80; dead-heat polls) "likely to weigh on share prices" despite his economic pragmatism. Bottom line: upside outweighs downside; the correction "materially improved the risk/reward."	read ↗
BA	Boeing	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Moved Buy → Hold for the 2027-28 cash ramp; position ~+5% (recommended Mar-13 ~$210, now ~$222). The turnaround is real: 737 MAX production 38→toward 47/mo (guided 52 by early 2027; FAA caps lifted Oct-2025, a fourth Everett line opened in July), Q2 deliveries ~167 (beat ~160), 500-550 MAX targeted for 2026 (~+40%); FCF inflected positive ($375M Q4-2025), guided $1-3B in 2026 toward ~$6.8B (2027) and ~$10.5B (2028), plus a credit-outlook upgrade, behind a >5,000-jet backlog and an Airbus duopoly. But the timeline lengthened everywhere (777X entry 2027+, Commercial profitability slipped to 2027, a costly Spirit AeroSystems reacquisition compressing margins, $47-51B debt, dividend/buybacks off indefinitely), valuation is entirely on future FCF (P/E >100, a turnaround "quirk"; ~$275-345 on a 20-25× 2028-FCF multiple only if the ramp executes), and China/litigation headline risk keeps resetting the mood — "very little valuation cushion for a stumble." Wouldn't add here; better entries on a strike/FAA/delivery setback. Watch the Jul 28 Q2 print, SPEEA talks into October, the FAA directive. Thesis-breakers: a prolonged engineers' strike, a fresh quality glitch, or the FCF ramp slipping.	read ↗
EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	QT · SA · STK	Neutral	Reference / contrast only. Hay "had suggested profit-taking with the Brazilian ETF, EWZ, earlier this year" after it "appreciated significantly from our two buy suggestions"; from its April 14th apex it has backed off just under 15% — "much less than BOLSY's 25% swoon, but exchange operators frequently fluctuate more than the stock markets to which they provide access." Cited to frame BOLSY's larger drawdown and the broader "correction within a structural bull market for real assets" in Brazilian equities — not a fresh call on EWZ (he still holds a reduced position after the profit-take).	read ↗

"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post. Airbus is mentioned only as the duopoly counterpart / long-cycle competitive risk to Boeing (no stance) and is not tabled. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

Boeing — the setup: a working turnaround, position ~+5%

Recommended Mar-13-2026 ~$210 as a turnaround bet on CEO Kelly Ortberg's "fix first, produce later" reset; now ~$222 (~+5%).
The thesis is "progressing" — production ramping, deliveries beating, FCF inflected positive. With consensus PTs ~$270 well above the price, the question is whether to keep pressing the bet or just hold for the longer cash-flow story.

Boeing — why it's (maybe) taking off: production, deliveries, cash

Production: 737 MAX from 38/mo early this year toward a 47 target; FAA lifted production caps Oct-2025, a fourth Everett assembly line opened in July, management guiding to 52/mo by early 2027.
Deliveries: Q2 ~167 (beat ~160), ~60 jets in June alone; targeting 500-550 MAX in 2026 (~+40% over 2025).
Cash — the whole ballgame: first sustained positive FCF in years ($375M in Q4-2025), 2026 guide $1-3B, a multi-year ramp toward ~$6.8B (2027) and ~$10.5B (2028) with a credit-outlook upgrade; a >5,000-jet MAX backlog (5+ years' visibility) and the Airbus duopoly behind it.

Boeing — the turbulence: timeline lengthening on every front

The FAA requiring MAX 7 / MAX 10 certification before the 777X can proceed pushes the widebody's commercial entry to 2027 at the earliest; Commercial Airplanes' return to sustained profitability also slipped to 2027 (a full year later).
Under FAA Safety Management System oversight, manufacturing is structurally slower/costlier per unit; the Spirit AeroSystems reacquisition (needed for quality control) is more complex and costly than modeled, diverting engineers from the 787 line and compressing margins.
Balance sheet: $47-51B total debt; the prior $10B FCF target for 2025-26 has "collapsed to analyst consensus of $2.3-2.5B for 2026" — cash goes to debt service/stabilization, so dividend suspended and buybacks off indefinitely; can't invest aggressively in next-gen aircraft while deleveraging (risks ceding leadership to Airbus).
Headline risk: China delivery volumes hostage to U.S.-China politics (the market is "dubious" the recent Chinese order volume is durable); safety litigation, whistleblower activity and sporadic mechanical events keep the safety narrative alive — none breaks the thesis but collectively raise "the odds of an air pocket."

Boeing — valuation: paying now for 2027-28 cash

~$220, no dividend, trailing P/E north of 100 — valued entirely on future FCF; the sky-high multiple is a math quirk of early-stage turnarounds (near-zero near-term earnings in the denominator), "pretty useless for assessing Boeing's valuation."
~760M shares (swollen by the 2024 raise) → ~$175B market cap; ~$50B net debt → EV past $220B. On the guided ramp, 2028 FCF ≈ $13-14/share (~6% forward yield).
A "quality-duopoly" 20-25× on $10.5B of 2028 FCF ≈ ~$275-345/share — genuine upside, but "only pencils out if the ramp executes on schedule." Haircut for execution risk → roughly fair-to-modestly-undervalued at ~$230, "very little valuation cushion for a stumble."

Boeing — landing the plane: move to Hold, don't add

Core thesis (a march toward $10B+ FCF behind a 5-year backlog and a duopoly) is "intact and compounding," but the near-term risks are "prickly." Move BA to Hold for the 2027-28 ramp; would not add here.
Better entries could pop up on a strike headline, an FAA/quality setback, or a delivery wobble. Watch the July 28 Q2 print (deliveries + cash), the SPEEA labor negotiation into October, and the FAA-directive resolution.
Thesis-breakers: a prolonged engineers' strike, a fresh quality glitch that snarls production, or the FCF ramp slipping — any delays the cash inflection and the deleveraging the whole case rests on. Hold with discipline; a double-down is only for those who love the fundamentals "and can stomach the risk."

BOLSY — reiterate and amp up: Brazil's exchange operator after a correction

Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão has dipped ~8.5% since the initial highlight (its own swoon ~25%) despite "extremely robust first quarter earnings" — blamed on Brazilian-market weakness, not company problems.
Trough valuations on Price/Sales and P/E (the P/E "more important" for "a steady profits grower"), a ~5% dividend (likely higher), and a "serious correction" after multi-year breakouts over overhead resistance — reasons to be more bullish, not less.

BOLSY / EWZ — the discount, real rates, and the Lula risk

Exchange owners/operators worldwide are "outstanding long-term performers," most at "20x earnings or more"; BOLSY sells at "a massive discount to its global peers," tied to Brazil's single-digit-P/E market — a function of real interest rates that are "the highest of any major economy." Hay expects those yields to fall "in a big way," triggering "a massive bull market in Brazilian equities."
EWZ contrast: he took profits on the Brazil ETF earlier this year; it's off "just under 15%" from its April-14 apex — less than BOLSY's 25% swoon, since "exchange operators frequently fluctuate more than the stock markets to which they provide access." He reads it as a "correction within a structural bull market for real assets."
Political risk: Latin America is pivoting rightward; Brazil is an exception where a Lula re-election (age 80; dead-heat vs the imprisoned ex-president's son) "is likely to weigh on share prices," despite his history of pragmatism (inflation kept ~4-5%, no war on capitalism). Net: upside outweighs downside; the correction "materially improved the risk/reward calculus."

3. In plain English

A jargon-free note on the two names Hay actually argues here. (Companion to the table above; renders on each name's consolidated page.)

BA — Boeing Neutral

Boeing is one of only two big passenger-jet makers on earth (Airbus is the other). It nearly broke itself after the 737 MAX crashes and years of quality problems, and Hay bought it in March as a "turnaround" — a bet that a new CEO would fix the factory and get planes out the door again. That's now happening: Boeing is building more jets each month, delivering more than expected, and — the key thing — has finally started generating cash instead of burning it, with a plan to grow that cash pile hugely over the next few years. The stock is up about 5% since he bought.

The catch is that you're paying today entirely for cash the company hopes to earn in 2027 and 2028 — there's no dividend, and the reported price-to-earnings looks absurd (over 100) simply because a company just crawling back to profit has tiny near-term earnings, which makes the math meaningless. Meanwhile every part of the recovery is taking longer than promised, Boeing owes $47-51 billion, and it faces near-term hazards: a possible engineers' strike (the SPEEA union), fresh quality or safety findings, or a bad delivery quarter. Any of those could knock the stock, and there's little cushion in the price. So Hay is downgrading it from "Buy" to "Hold" — keep what you own for the multi-year cash story, but don't add at today's price; wait for a scary headline to give you a cheaper entry.

BOLSY — Brasil Bolsa Balcão (B3) Positive

BOLSY is the company that owns and runs Brazil's stock exchange — essentially the only game in town for trading Brazilian shares, so it collects a toll on the country's financial activity (a business model that tends to be very steady and highly profitable). Its US-listed shares have fallen roughly 8.5% (the stock itself swung down about 25%) even though it just reported strong earnings — the drop is really about the whole Brazilian market being weak lately, not anything wrong with the business. That's exactly the kind of dip Hay likes: a great, steady company on sale, now at some of its cheapest-ever valuations with a dividend around 5%.

His bigger bet is on Brazil itself. Brazilian stocks trade at rock-bottom prices largely because the country has punishingly high interest rates (the highest of any major economy). Hay thinks those rates will eventually come down a lot, which historically ignites a big rally in a country's stock market — and the exchange operator would be a leveraged way to ride that, since trading volumes (its revenue) rise in a bull market. The main risk he flags is the October-ish election: if the 80-year-old incumbent Lula wins re-election, markets may wobble, even though his past record on the economy was fairly business-friendly. Net-net, he thinks the potential reward now clearly outweighs the risk.

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.