Title: Haymaker Daily — Uranium: Poised To Glow Once Again Show: Haymaker (Substack) — written post, paid Author: David Hay / The Haymaker Team Date: 2026-07-16 URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-78b Note: Written post — no timestamps. Verbatim body captured via logged-in session; standard Haymaker legal disclosure block omitted.
Hello, Haymakers:
The worsening shortages of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are once again capturing the world's attention and for good reason. In reality, there should probably be much more anxiety about how the world will adapt to the unprecedented supply disruption of both essential commodities.
Yet there is also inexplicable and, we would argue, inexcusable complacency about the situation in the uranium market. The chart below, relayed to us and his other followers, by our close Kiwi friend Trader Ferg, gets right to the heart of the matter.
[Chart: Uranium contracting vs consumption, sourced via Trader Ferg]
This visual reveals that in the period from 2005 to 2012, nuclear utilities were contracting for much more uranium than they were consuming. This was in reaction to under-ordering in the first four years of this century's first decade (and possibly earlier). However, in 2011 the atomic energy industry was slammed by its worst accident ever, Japan's Fukushima disaster.
The knee-jerk reaction — which was, in hindsight, a significant overreaction — was to shut down 65 nuclear power plants. Many others had their operating lives shortened in the wake of this jarring event. As a result, utilities almost immediately began contracting for much less than they were using. As you can see above, this shortfall has continued for over a decade.
Excess inventories are now fully depleted.
Aggravating the next upcoming buying panic, there are now over 70 new nuclear plants under construction or in the planning stages around the world. (Ominously for the West, nearly all of these are Chinese or Russian designs.) Additionally, there are at least 16 mothballed plants that have been restarted with more to come, particularly in Japan.
In recent years, the leading uranium ETF, SRUUF, has had several valuation spikes. Lately, though, the price action of the heaviest natural element, 92 on the periodic table, has itself been a bit heavy. SRUUF has pulled back after twice hitting $25 and is now bouncing around the $18 to $20 vicinity. (Actual uranium in the spot market is roughly $85, with long-term contract prices well above that level.) This newsletter believes prices are poised to surge again, particularly once the utility industry wakes up to the implications of severely deficient supplies at a time of erupting demand.
The Haymaker Team