Title: Portfolio Update — Sy-zing Up Another Super-Investor Winner
Show: Haymaker (Substack) — Portfolio Update
Guest: David Hay (The Haymaker Team)
Date: 2026-JUL-20
URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/portfolio-update-8a5
Length: written post (no video/timestamps)
Note: Paid Substack post, captured via logged-in session. Body text verbatim; the Buys / Trims-Holds / Sells
portfolio tables are published as images — transcribed below from screenshots (★ = rating cell highlighted,
which the post marks as "This week's Ratings changes highlighted"). Not investment advice.

What Has Happened Since February 13

Entry February 13, 2026 at $11.25; current price ~$17.31; gain ~57% in approximately five months

Q2 FY2026 (reported February 5, 2026): record revenue $287.8M, exceeded guidance; HomeBuddy acquisition closed January 2026

Q3 FY2026 (reported May 7, 2026): record revenue $346.1M, +28% YoY; beat consensus of $337.4M by 2.6%

Q3 adjusted EBITDA $29.6M, +53% YoY; GAAP net income $7.4M, +67% YoY; adj. EPS $0.31

Analyst consensus Strong Buy; 5 analysts; average price target $19.00; high target $24 (Barrington, reiterated Buy May 11); Northland initiated Outperform at $17

Next earnings August 6/12, 2026 (Q4 FY2026); analysts projecting EPS of $0.43 vs. Q3 actual $0.31 — significant sequential acceleration expected

We recommended QuinStreet (QNST) on February 13, 2026, at $11.25 and the stock is trading today at approximately $17.31, marking a gain of approximately 57% in five months. That's obviously a pretty phenomenal return over a short period of time; accordingly, we're looking at QNST today to assess the risk/reward going forward against the current fundamentals.

For a little primer, QNST operates digital performance marketplaces connecting high-intent consumers with clients in financial services and home services, including auto insurance, home insurance, mortgages, personal loans, and increasingly home improvement. The company earns revenue on a cost-per-action basis, meaning it gets paid when its media generates qualified leads, clicks, calls, or customers for its clients. When insurance carriers are spending aggressively to acquire customers, which they are, QNST is the infrastructure through which much of that spend flows. Our February recommendation was made at a moment when the stock had sold off well below fair value on worries about carrier spending uncertainty and, of course, the ever-present AI threat.

Why the Original Thesis Was Right

The February entry was made on the thesis that the market had dramatically underpriced QNST's position as the primary beneficiary of the auto insurance carrier spending recovery. The property-casualty industry had spent 2022 and 2023 pulling back marketing spend as carriers repriced their books and stopped writing new policies at inadequate rates. That pullback nuked QNST's revenue, which fell from approximately $500 million in fiscal 2023 to trough levels that left the stock at $11.25. At that point, QNST was trading below 0.7x trailing revenue on a business with a structurally advantaged position in the performance marketing ecosystem.

The repricing cycle at the carrier level was accelerating by late 2025 (as we documented in the Travelers POW!), with combined ratios improving, underwriting profitability restored, and critically, marketing budgets reopening. QNST is where those reopened budgets flow first because performance marketing is the most measurable and accountable form of customer acquisition that insurance carriers use. The thesis was that a cyclical trough in an operationally intact business was being priced as a structural decline.

Where the Thesis Stands at $17.31

At $17.31, and approximately 1.0x trailing 12-month revenue of approximately $1.18 billion (up from the 0.7x at entry), this reading is still modest for a business growing revenue 28% to 34% annually with improving EBITDA margins. The Q4 guidance midpoint of $360 million implies full-year FY2026 revenue approaching $1.27 billion, and management has guided to strong double-digit growth in FY2027. At these levels, it would put the business above $1.5 billion in annual revenue within 18 months; and at just 0.82 times forward revenue on that trajectory, QNST shares are far from overvalued despite the outstanding appreciation since our recommendation. The analyst consensus target of $19 implies approximately 8% upside from current levels, which is obviously modest, but the consensus was built on estimates that the Q4 guidance has likely made too conservative.

[Chart: Five-Year Price/Sales and P/E Ratios — Bloomberg]

In our view, the most relevant valuation framework at this stage of the business is EBITDA multiple rather than revenue multiple, because the margin growth story is the incremental thesis at current prices. Q3 EBITDA margin was 8.6% and the Q4 EBITDA guidance midpoint of $40 million on revenue of $360 million implies an 11.1% margin. That would be meaningful sequential expansion in a single quarter to go along with management's stated objective of continued margin expansion in FY2027. If QNST reaches a 12-15% EBITDA margin on $1.5 billion in revenue (not an aggressive assumption for a performance marketing company at scale) the EBITDA base approaches $180 to $225 million. At 15x to 18x EBITDA, which is consistent with peers in the performance marketing and digital media space, the implied market cap is $2.7 to $4.1 billion against today's $1.0 billion. We see that as the medium-term value-creation opportunity if the margin trajectory the company is demonstrating continues.

Additionally, as many readers are aware, this idea came our way via Sy Jacobs. We've often referred to Sy as a "Super Investor" and this is another in a long list of exceptional moneymaking names he's shared with us, justifying our laudatory designation. He waxed bullish on QNST's peers, EverQuote (EVER) and MediaAlpha (MAX), as well. They have also been winners, up 59.7% and 37.8%, respectively (as of July 17th), since Sy's March 3rd Haymaker Webinar appearance.

The chart of EVER looks very encouraging as the shares are on the verge of a five-year breakout. One of Sy's main bullish points is that the abundant free cash flow all three are generating offers them the ability to affect substantial share buybacks. That's exactly what they've been doing and at an accelerating clip. Accordingly, we extend our great thanks to Sy Jacobs once again. It's like those old E.F. Hutton commercials: when Sy talks you really should listen. (One that has pulled back lately is GOLD which might be a great entry, or dollar-cost-averaging, point.)

What to Watch (And One Flag)

The August 6 Q4 FY2026 earnings are likely to be the next major catalyst. The setup is pretty favorable, too: Q4 guidance of $350 to $370 million was issued on top of two consecutive record-revenue quarters, and with management explicitly calling out AI deployment driving productivity gains. The analyst EPS estimate of $0.43 versus Q3 actual of $0.31 represents 39% sequential EPS expansion. If QuinStreet delivers at or above the guidance midpoint with continued margin expansion and issues FY2027 guidance in the double-digit growth range, the consensus price targets likely move upward and the stock follows.

The one red flag worth waving is the recent CFO share sale. Gregory Wong sold 22,057 shares in June 2026. We all know that a single insider sale is not a thesis-breaker, as executives often sell shares for planned liquidity, tax, and compensation reasons. But, it is worth noting on a position that has appreciated 57% from entry and is approaching a new 52-week high. Though it does not change our view, it's the kind of data point that needs to be included here.

The Bottom Line

So, what should Haymakers do with a 57% winner in five months? We are holding it, because the business that justified buying at $11.25 is performing better than our February thesis projected. Revenue is growing faster than guided, margins are expanding ahead of expectations, and the Q4 guidance signals further acceleration. We believe the valuation at around 0.8 times forward revenue on 28-34% growth with expanding EBITDA margins not at all stretched.

That being said, we would start trimming into weakness if we saw evidence of carrier spending pulling back, evidence that the HomeBuddy integration was consuming management attention at the cost of the core insurance business, or a Q4 miss that suggested the Q4 guidance was issued with false confidence.

However, we do not see any of those signals in the current data.

What we do see is a business executing at the high end of its guidance, approaching its August earnings with momentum at its back, and trading at a valuation that remains reasonable for the growth trajectory it's demonstrating. We are holding the full position and will revisit sizing after the Q4 report on August 6. For those feeling extra cautious or just wanting to take some profits, we would have no objection to cutting back a bit at this price.

The Haymaker Team

Another Update Note

Our recent recommendations of two coal stocks have been the anti-QuinStreet. In other words, they've gone down, at least on average.

To keep this Portfolio Update on the shorter side, we'll provide the details in Friday's Pick Of The Week (POW!). In this case, it should be plural as we'd like to encourage readers who didn't buy either Yancoal (YACAF) or New Hope (NHPEF) to initiate a position in one or the other... or both.

YACAF has been particularly pummeled, tumbling 23%. After a recent bounce, NHPEF is essentially a push; therefore, between the two they are off by ~11.5%.

The main reason for the weakness in our opinion is the misguided optimism about the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This erroneous view led the global investment community to conclude demand for thermal coal, which often competes directly with LNG, would soften. With LNG once again trapped in the Persian Gulf, the need for alternative LNG supplies, like coal, is becoming increasingly apparent. Moreover, we believe the news out of Indonesia, the world's leading thermal coal exporter, is also extremely bullish for the prices of this essential commodity.

Rather than scoop ourselves, we'll let you check out our full story on these names come Friday. However, in the meantime, we think time is of the essence in adding to YACAF for those who bought it higher or picking up NHPEF for anyone who passed on our first endorsement. More aggressive investors might consider owning both.

(This week's Ratings changes highlighted.)

=== BUYS TABLE (image; transcribed — Ticker | Price | Cost | % Change | Date | Rating; ★ = highlighted rating cell) ===
AAP | $52.12 | $58.78 | -11.33% | 05/01/2026 | B
ACN | $145.11 | $178.31 | -18.62% | 05/08/2026 | SB
AG | $15.92 | $16.50 | -3.52% | 06/25/2026 | B ★
AIG | $80.01 | $69.82 | 14.59% | 02/26/2024 | B
ANGPY | $10.81 | $8.27 | 30.71% | 12/29/2025 | SB
APA | $35.32 | $29.91 | 18.09% | 03/02/2026 | B
BABA | $120.56 | $162.11 | -25.63% | 05/14/2026 | SB
BOLSY | $9.01 | $9.85 | -8.53% | 07/13/2026 | B
CPNG | $16.24 | $20.16 | -19.44% | 05/15/2026 | SB
DECK | $103.28 | $104.58 | -1.24% | 03/06/2026 | B
DGX | $208.13 | $200.29 | 3.91% | 06/05/2026 | B
EL | $83.00 | $86.82 | -4.40% | 05/22/2026 | B
EQT | $49.04 | $64.96 | -24.51% | 03/20/2026 | SB
EQT | $49.04 | $57.00 | -13.96% | 04/20/26 | B
EXE | $87.32 | $77.49 | 12.69% | 05/29/2026 | B
FANG | $197.00 | $160.87 | 22.46% | 06/22/2026 | B
FXI | $35.10 | $38.42 | -8.64% | 02/25/2026 | SB
GOLD | $37.16 | $47.01 | -20.95% | 04/24/2026 | SB
HBRIY | $3.30 | $4.09 | -19.32% | 04/09/2026 | SB
IJH | $75.22 | $62.30 | 20.74% | 06/30/2025 | B
J | $130.86 | $128.30 | 2.00% | 05/15/2026 | SB
KWEB | $27.51 | $32.24 | -14.67% | 02/25/2026 | SB
LMT | $510.25 | $463.87 | 10.00% | 04/15/2024 | SB ★
LNC | $41.91 | $40.25 | 4.12% | 10/13/2025 | SB
MDT | $83.78 | $80.20 | 4.46% | 06/12/2026 | SB
MTB | $248.21 | $187.34 | 32.49% | 09/23/2025 | B
NFG | $81.27 | $91.03 | -10.72% | 02/27/2026 | SB
NHPEF | $3.74 | $3.74 | 0.00% | 04/09/2026 | SB
NTR | $66.35 | $76.05 | -12.75% | 03/19/2026 | B
PALL | $22.94 | $18.06 | 27.02% | 01/10/2024 | B
PBR | $18.27 | $11.85 | 54.18% | 12/31/2025 | B ★
PEP | $134.80 | $157.06 | -14.17% | 04/10/2026 | SB
PSLV | $18.16 | $9.82 | 84.93% | 08/26/2024 | B ★
RRC | $36.76 | $36.78 | -0.05% | 06/22/2026 | SB
RYAAY | $58.92 | $53.36 | 10.42% | 05/15/2026 | B
SHEL | $86.34 | $74.92 | 15.24% | 10/27/2025 | B ★
SLB | $46.74 | $42.00 | 11.29% | 09/23/2024 | B ★
SRUUF | $18.18 | $18.55 | -1.99% | 11/12/2025 | SB
UBER | $72.04 | $84.67 | -14.92% | 01/12/2026 | SB
USO | $126.13 | $114.23 | 10.42% | 06/17/2026 | B
WDOFF | $17.87 | $17.95 | -0.45% | 02/11/2026 | B
WMMVY | $28.34 | $32.08 | -11.66% | 03/27/26 | B
XLE | $58.24 | $48.38 | 20.38% | 04/01/24 | B
YACAF | $4.00 | $5.20 | -23.08% | 04/09/2026 | B

=== TRIMS/HOLDS TABLE (image; transcribed) ===
AA | $43.15 | $36.79 | 17.29% | 06/29/2026 | H ★
AEM | $136.84 | $97.04 | 41.01% | 02/10/2025 | T ★
AESI | $13.92 | $10.09 | 37.96% | 12/02/2025 | H
AGI | $28.31 | $18.73 | 51.15% | 12/03/2024 | H
AR | $33.68 | $27.44 | 22.74% | 09/16/2024 | H
BA | $210.71 | $209.89 | 0.39% | 07/13/2026 | H
BTU | $22.83 | $13.72 | 66.40% | 03/24/2025 | H
CB | $352.00 | $250.90 | 40.29% | 02/12/2024 | H
CDE | $14.13 | $6.63 | 113.12% | 12/02/2024 | H
CHKP | $137.14 | $158.73 | -13.60% | 01/08/2024 | H
CKHUY | $8.95 | $6.78 | 32.01% | 11/10/2025 | H/T ★
CLF | $8.99 | $10.21 | -11.95% | 12/09/2024 | H
COPX | $73.85 | $46.67 | 58.24% | 08/25/2025 | H
CRH | $99.97 | $73.23 | 36.52% | 01/29/2024 | H
CRH | $99.97 | $98.51 | 1.48% | 04/28/2025 | H
CSCO | $111.69 | $53.50 | 108.77% | 09/30/2024 | H/T
CVE | $28.49 | $15.25 | 86.82% | 12/09/2024 | H
DAL | $84.08 | $50.44 | 66.69% | 06/03/2024 | H/T
EEM | $63.69 | $46.12 | 38.10% | 05/27/2025 | H/T
EQNR | $37.67 | $22.59 | 66.76% | 12/22/2025 | H
EWJ | $90.65 | $69.26 | 30.88% | 04/29/2024 | H
EWS | $29.51 | $18.21 | 62.05% | 04/15/2024 | H
EWZ | $35.51 | $28.21 | 25.88% | 08/07/2024 | H
FNV | $200.98 | $125.82 | 59.74% | 12/09/2024 | H
FSLR | $206.45 | $133.03 | 55.19% | 03/17/2025 | H
GDX | $71.04 | $49.34 | 43.98% | 04/10/2025 | H
GDXJ | $92.11 | $60.43 | 52.42% | 04/10/2025 | H
GOOG | $350.92 | $168.68 | 108.04% | 07/22/2024 | T
HBM | $20.80 | $10.46 | 98.85% | 07/14/2025 | H ★
HCC | $78.46 | $53.23 | 47.40% | 01/27/2025 | H ★
HP | $34.19 | $37.92 | -9.84% | 05/06/24 | H
IBKR | $92.14 | $21.70 | 324.61% | 01/08/2024 | T
IJS | $136.51 | $86.27 | 58.24% | 04/07/2025 | H
JPM | $338.52 | $175.65 | 92.72% | 01/16/2024 | H
MO | $74.10 | $49.71 | 49.06% | 10/25/2024 | H
NE | $41.16 | $31.83 | 29.31% | 02/10/2025 | H
NEM | $89.74 | $42.21 | 112.60% | 06/04/2024 | H
NHYDY | $8.65 | $7.35 | 17.69% | 12/08/2025 | H ★
NOW | $104.82 | $102.00 | 2.76% | 04/03/2026 | H/T   [prices as printed in the table image; likely a table typo for ServiceNow's actual ~$1,0xx level]
PALAF | $6.07 | $4.93 | 23.12% | 12/09/2024 | H ★
PARR | $78.82 | $16.18 | 387.14% | 12/09/2024 | T
QNST | $17.18 | $11.25 | 52.71% | 02/13/2026 | H
RIG | $5.11 | $3.74 | 36.63% | 02/10/2025 | H
RTX | $195.17 | $113.95 | 71.28% | 07/22/2024 | T
SBSW | $8.02 | $4.76 | 68.49% | 07/08/2024 | H
STT | $182.36 | $112.95 | 61.45% | 09/04/2025 | H
TMUS | $194.64 | $164.27 | 18.49% | 01/29/2024 | H
URNJ | $21.44 | $18.22 | 17.67% | 09/04/2024 | H
VAL | $76.16 | $47.72 | 59.60% | 02/10/2025 | H ★
XAR | $261.06 | $220.00 | 18.66% | 08/27/2025 | H

=== SELLS TABLE (image; transcribed — Ticker | Cost | Price at Sale | Gain % | Sell Date) ===
EWY | $68.19 | $181.98 | 166.87% | 05/06/2026
GS | $460.18 | $1,076.17 | 133.86% | 06/15/2026
IBM | $188.00 | $280.82 | 49.37% | 06/08/2026
XOM | $114.30 | $154.22 | 34.93% | 03/02/2026

Notes:
First, we did want to call your attention to our very timely sell recommendation on IBM, well before it cratered due to a very negative market reaction to its second quarter earnings.
Second, the XOM Gain % cell had an inaccurate figure in last week's edition. We regret the error and have made the correction.
Lastly, we have updated the EWY cost to reflect an earlier recommendation.