David Hay — Haymaker Daily: Checking Up On "U"
A follow-up on the "repeated recommendation" — the Sprott Uranium ETF (SRUUF) has eased ~4% in 2026 and swooned ~23% off its early-year spike, but Haymaker argues the pullback is an opening: the long-term contract price of uranium (where utilities actually buy) just closed at an all-time high of $94 versus $85 spot, the trust's effective uranium price is only ~$77, and SRUUF's ~10% discount to NAV is unusually wide — such wide discounts "have typically preceded rallies, often in the range of 30% or more" — while demand (a Grant Williams chart) is "almost certain" to rise robustly over the next decade against "extremely challenged" supply.
One-line take: A short, reaffirming uranium Daily "checking up on 'U.'" The Sprott Uranium ETF (SRUUF), "a repeated recommendation of this newsletter," has "eased back about 4% thus far in 2026, after a spike to start the year," and "from that level… has swooned about 23%." Haymaker reframes the drawdown as opportunity via three points. (1) Term > spot. The spot market is "only 15% to 20% of total transacted volumes"; the longer-term contract market — where utilities buy "the large quantities of U they need to keep their reactors running" — "recently closed at an all-time high of $94 versus the spot market at $85," and "over time, the spot price tends to work its way up toward the long-term contract price." (2) A double discount. Buyers of SRUUF at current prices realize "another discount… due to the effective U price of the Sprott ETF near $77," and the "present 10% discount to the actual value of SRUUF's U is unusually wide" (wider only during "market convulsions like Liberation Day"); such episodes "have typically preceded rallies, often in the range of 30% or more." (3) Demand up, supply challenged. A chart from "great friend of Haymaker, Grant Williams" shows demand for U92 / U308 (yellow cake) is "almost certain to increase… over the next decade" while "supply is extremely challenged" — raising "the potential of a severe shortage of this essential energy source." A held Buy-list position (2 lots); no rating change.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| SRUUF | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust | QT · SA · STK | Positive | "The Sprott Uranium ETF, a repeated recommendation of this newsletter," has "eased back about 4% thus far in 2026… from that level, it has swooned about 23%." Haymaker frames the pullback as an entry: the long-term contract price just closed at an all-time-high $94 vs $85 spot (spot "tends to work its way up toward the long-term contract price"); the trust's effective U price is ~$77; and its ~10% discount to NAV is unusually wide — wide discounts "have typically preceded rallies, often in the range of 30% or more." Demand is "almost certain to increase… over the next decade" while "supply is extremely challenged," raising the potential of "a severe shortage." A held Buy-list position (2 lots). | read ↗ |
"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post. Referenced only (not a ticker): Grant Williams, "great friend of Haymaker," whose TTMYGH chart of long-run uranium demand anchors the demand case (a person — excluded from the education list). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Talking points
Checking up on a repeated recommendation — the drawdown
- The Sprott Uranium ETF, "a repeated recommendation of this newsletter," has "eased back about 4% thus far in 2026, after a spike to start the year."
- "From that level, it has swooned about 23%" — the price action prompting today's follow-up.
Spot is the small market — the contract market is where utilities buy
- Be aware that "the spot, or near-term market, for uranium (U92, sometimes referred to as simply U) represents only 15% to 20% of total transacted volumes."
- The "longer-term, or contract, market is where utilities purchase the large quantities of U they need to keep their reactors running" — the price that actually matters for supply security.
The term price is at an all-time high — and spot chases it
- The contract market "recently closed at an all-time high of $94 versus the spot market at $85."
- "Over time, the spot price tends to work its way up toward the long-term contract price" — i.e., the term-market high points spot higher, not lower.
The double discount — SRUUF's effective U price is ~$77
- "For buyers of SRUUF at current prices, another discount is realized due to the effective U price of the Sprott ETF near $77" — below both the $85 spot and the $94 contract price.
The NAV discount is unusually wide — and that has preceded rallies
- "The present 10% discount to the actual value of SRUUF's U is unusually wide, though it has been even greater during market convulsions like Liberation Day."
- Crucially, "these episodes of larger discounts have typically preceded rallies, often in the range of 30% or more" — the discount width as a mean-reversion / entry tell.
Demand almost certain to surge, supply extremely challenged
- On demand for U92 and "its more refined version, U308, also known as yellow cake," a chart from "great friend of Haymaker, Grant Williams," vividly illustrates "how robustly it is almost certain to increase over the next decade."
- "As numerous Haymaker Dailies have underscored, supply is extremely challenged" — together raising "the potential of a severe shortage of this essential energy source." (Williams, "British," offers the "sardonic… 'somewhat bullish for the uranium price…'" understatement.)
Footnote — the uranium fuel cycle
- "To become usable in a reactor, U308 is converted into a gas, hexafluoride, and then enriched in centrifuges to make it a much more potent fuel" — the conversion + enrichment steps between mined yellow cake and reactor fuel.
3. In plain English
A jargon-free note on why the pick matters. (Companion to the table above; renders on the name's consolidated page.)
SRUUF — Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Positive
SRUUF is a fund that actually holds physical uranium in storage, so its price roughly tracks the price of uranium — the fuel for nuclear reactors. This note is Hay "checking up" on a name he's recommended before: the fund fell about 23% from its early-2026 high, and he's arguing that drop is a buying opportunity rather than a warning.
His case rests on three numbers. First, there are two prices for uranium — a small "spot" market (only 15–20% of volume) and the much bigger "contract" market where power utilities lock in the large quantities they need for years ahead. That contract price just hit an all-time high of $94, above the $85 spot price, and history says spot usually drifts up toward the contract price over time. Second, the fund is cheap in two layers: the uranium it effectively holds is priced at only about $77, and the fund itself trades at a ~10% discount to the actual value of that uranium — a gap that's unusually wide. Hay notes that whenever this discount has blown out like this (e.g., around "Liberation Day"), a rally of 30%+ has often followed, so he treats the wide discount as a timing signal to buy. Third, a chart from Grant Williams shows demand for uranium is almost certain to climb sharply over the next decade while new supply is very hard to bring on — the classic setup for a shortage and higher prices.
It's already a position he holds (two lots on the Haymaker Buy list), and this post reaffirms the bullish case rather than changing the rating.
Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.