David Hay — Haymaker Daily: Europe, Energy & (Literal) Russian Roulette — Europe's gas in storage near the lowest of the last 15 years just as Mideast hostilities threaten LNG shipments; U.S. LNG maxed out, Asia competing for cargoes, and Germany still hostile to nuclear (Jul 23 2026)

A macro/energy Daily: after the 2022 scramble to replace Russian gas with U.S. LNG (and dirtier coal and wood pellets), Europe's natural gas in storage is now "near the lowest of the last 15 years" — a dangerous setup with Mideast hostilities threatening LNG shipments, U.S. exports "close to maxed out," Asia competing for cargoes, and Germany still "inexplicably hostile" to nuclear power.

One-line take: A macro/energy Daily on Europe's gas fragility — no named securities. After Russia's Feb-2022 invasion of Ukraine imperiled Europe's Russian gas imports, six European countries built makeshift LNG import facilities almost overnight to bring in gas "mostly from the U.S.," and several ramped coal and wood pellets (Germany "particularly aggressive" toward "the dirtiest forms of producing power"). By late 2023 Europe's storage had hit a record high — aided by a warm winter and mostly above-normal weather since ("proof of global warming… or simply another phase" in variable weather). Now, per a bar chart from energy analyst John Kemp, Europe's gas in storage is near the lowest of the last 15 years — and with escalating Mideast hostilities threatening energy shipments (including LNG), an average winter, "especially a severe one, could prove extremely problematic for the Continent." With U.S. LNG exports close to maxed out and Asia also in dire need of frozen gas, "European authorities may soon regret having sported such a blasé attitude" toward their recurring energy needs — including an "inexplicably hostile attitude toward nuclear power plants," particularly in Germany. No tickers are given — so no stock table; this feeds the master natural-gas/energy and nuclear macro themes. (The URL slug says "bce" — an unrelated Substack artifact; the post does not mention BCE Inc.)

1. Talking points

The 2022 scramble — replacing Russian gas overnight

Russia's "unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022" imperiled Europe's "vast Russian gas imports," so six European countries built makeshift LNG export [import] facilities, almost overnight, to bring in gas "mostly from the U.S."
Several also "resorted to burning greatly increased quantities of coal, as well as wood pellets (also shipped in from the USA)." Germany was "particularly aggressive in turning to these dirtiest forms of producing power."

The refill — a record 2023, helped by warm winters

"By the end of 2023, Europe had built up its stored natural gas to near-peak levels going back to 2011" — and "in November of that year, its gas storage hit the highest on record."
It was "aided in this effort by a warm winter that year," and the weather "has continued to be mostly above normal" since — "proof of global warming… or… simply another phase in the planet's highly variable weather patterns."

The setup now — storage near a 15-year low into a fragile winter

Per a bar chart from "top energy analyst John Kemp," Europe's gas in storage is "near the lowest of the last 15 years."
With "escalating hostilities and threats to energy shipments in the Middle East, including LNG," an average winter — "and, especially, a severe one — could prove extremely problematic for the Continent."

The squeeze — U.S. maxed out, Asia competing, Germany anti-nuclear

"With U.S. LNG exports close to maxed out at this point, and Asia also in dire need of frozen gas, European authorities may soon regret having sported such a blasé attitude about their recurring energy needs."
That complacency "includes an inexplicably hostile attitude toward nuclear power plants, particularly — once again — in Germany."

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.