David Hay — Portfolio Update: Mining & Sand — Alamos Gold (AGI) moved back to the Buy List at $29 after a halving from its $55 February peak (senior-miner ETF −35% since end-February, a Young-Davidson earthquake cutting Q2 output 12%, <10× 2027 EPS, retail negativity as a contrarian tell), and Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) moved back up to the Buy List sub-$12 on an S&P Small-Cap-Growth index REMOVAL — the ironic inverse of the 2024 inclusion spike he sold into (Jul 27 2026)

One-line take: Two ratings upgrades in one short Monday note — both back onto the Buy List. Part I — AGI. "While the overall stock market appears to be superficially calm, there has been an unusual amount of volatility within sectors," and gold miners are "one of the most extreme examples": from the end of February "the primary ETF for senior gold-mining stocks has plunged 35%," and Alamos Gold — "a long-time favorite of both this newsletter and… Fred Hickey" — "has now been cut in half from its peak at the start of the year" (~$55 → $29). Haymaker had suggested profit-taking into the 2025-26 eruption by dollar-cost-averaging out ("our default tactic when prices enter the hockey stick phase"), and has "avoided re-endorsing the gold miners" since — "however, at $29, for AGI, we think it is now an attractive buy, or buy up, point": 10.4× earnings, a reasonable price-to-sales, reserves "almost tripled… over the last 10 years" and grades better "by roughly 35%." The weakness is partly a one-off earthquake at the Young-Davidson mine in Ontario (a 12% cut to Q2 production and lower full-year output) — "natural disasters… are common in the mining industry, but they tend to fade into insignificance over time" — against consensus EPS of $2.32 (2026) and $3.27 (2027), i.e. "less than 10x forward earnings." Bullion's own drop is "a correction within an ongoing bull market": central banks "remain aggressive buyers," "the odds of government bond crises becoming more acute are rising by the day," and the long-term trend is "fiat currency debasement." Retail's "truly remarkable" negativity after a +150% year is "a bullish factor," given retail's "recurring tendency to be on the wrong side." Verdict: AGI back to the Buy List, and "before long we may bump it up to a Strong Buy." Part II — AESI. The full round trip is laid out: Buy List at 18 (April 2025) → DCA down "all the way to around 8 ¾, where it bottomed late last year" → a tax-loss-selling call last November that worked (back near $12 by January, moved to Hold) → close to $19 by May → Trim on May 15 → "crash all the way back down to sub-$12 where it is today," the downside catalyst being removal from S&P Small Cap Growth indexes. "This is ironic because it was S&P's inclusion in those same indices that created an artificial lift in late 2024, pushing it all the way up to $24" against deteriorating fundamentals — "a great time to ring the cash register." "Today, it's almost the inverse situation": the removal lands as the oil-services outlook turns up. AESI is "the leading frac sand provider in America's most important oil-producing basin, the Permian" — "you simply can't produce shale crude without frac sand" — with volumes recovering, pricing still soft, and "based on the unprecedented oil shortage which has developed — and is worsening, despite the various peace treaty head fakes — AESI's business should accelerate from here." The market is extrapolating Liberty Energy (LBRT)'s "disappointing quarter" onto AESI, but that "now appears to be well-discounted after the price collapse since May." Under-appreciated: a "growing power supply business" and the Dune Express conveyor ("none of its competitors have anything like this invaluable infrastructure asset"), plus a frac-sand market that "has become almost a duopoly" → "very strong pricing power in the next up-cycle." Action: buying a partial position and moving AESI back up to the Buy List, "though not as a Strong Buy." Housekeeping in the (image-only) tables: AG and AGI entries re-dated to earlier recommendation dates, and EXE's recommended date revised.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What he said	At
AGI	Alamos Gold	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	Moved back to the Buy List at $29 — "an attractive buy, or buy up, point" after being "cut in half from its peak at the start of the year" (~$55 in February), with the senior gold-miner ETF −35% since end-February. At 10.4× earnings, under 10× 2027's $3.27 consensus ($2.32 for 2026), reserves "almost tripled… over the last 10 years" and grades +~35%. The Young-Davidson earthquake (a 12% Q2 production cut and lower full-year guidance) is a fading one-off — "natural disasters… tend to fade into insignificance over time." Bullion's drop is "a correction within an ongoing bull market" (central banks "aggressive buyers," rising bond-crisis odds, fiat debasement), and retail's "truly remarkable" negativity is "a bullish factor." "Before long we may bump it up to a Strong Buy." A long-time favorite — on the 2022 buy list "around $8."	read ↗
AESI	Atlas Energy Solutions	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	Buying a partial position; moved back up to the Buy List, "though not as a Strong Buy." "One of the most mercurial companies we've brought to your attention" — Buy at 18 (Apr 2025), DCA'd down to a ~8 ¾ bottom, Hold near $12 in January, Trim on May 15 near $19, now crashed sub-$12 on removal from S&P Small Cap Growth indexes — "ironic because it was S&P's inclusion in those same indices that created an artificial lift in late 2024" into deteriorating fundamentals, "a great time to ring the cash register." "Today, it's almost the inverse situation": the leading Permian frac-sand provider ("you simply can't produce shale crude without frac sand"), volumes recovering with pricing still soft, into "the unprecedented oil shortage which has developed — and is worsening, despite the various peace treaty head fakes." The Dune Express conveyor ("none of its competitors have anything like this") and a near-duopoly frac-sand market imply "very strong pricing power in the next up-cycle," plus a "growing power supply business."	read ↗
LBRT	Liberty Energy	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	The near-term caveat on AESI, not a rating: "its quasi-competitor, Liberty Energy (LBRT), recently reported a disappointing quarter. The market seems to be assuming AESI will, too. That's certainly possible but such an outcome now appears to be well-discounted after the price collapse since May." No view offered on LBRT itself.	read ↗

"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post. Referenced only (no stance taken): the unnamed "primary ETF for senior gold-mining stocks" (−35% since end-February — the post never names it, so no ticker is assigned); AG (First Majestic) and EXE (Expand Energy), whose Buy-List entries were merely re-dated to earlier recommendation dates as housekeeping; Yancoal and New Hope, cited as the template for the "more in-depth review" follow-ups ("similar to what we did… last Friday"); and Fred Hickey, "the venerable gold investor and analyst extraordinaire," a fellow long-time AGI holder (a person — excluded from the education list). The closing Buy List / Holds-Trims tables render as images and were not captured; the prose carries the only changes. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

A calm index hiding violent sector rotation

"While the overall stock market appears to be superficially calm, there has been an unusual amount of volatility within sectors and individual stocks."
"One of the most extreme examples of this is what has been going on with gold-mining stocks."

The miner drawdown — five months of pain after the eruption

"After an absolute eruption late in 2025 and into 2026, the gold miners have been among the weakest sectors in the market over the past five months."
"From the end of February, the primary ETF for senior gold-mining stocks has plunged 35%." (The ETF is not named in the post.)

AGI — "cut in half" from the February peak

Alamos Gold (AGI) is "a prime example… an even worse cliff dive for this name, a long-time favorite of both this newsletter and the venerable gold investor and analyst extraordinaire, Fred Hickey."
"This stellar producer has now been cut in half from its peak at the start of the year" — ~$55 in February to $29.

How they got out — DCA-ing into the "hockey stick phase"

"We did suggest profit-taking into the extraordinary move gold stocks had toward the end of 2025 and into this year. Our approach was to implement a dollar-cost-averaging process as this group was going vertical."
"This is our default tactic when prices enter the hockey stick phase. It often looks overly cautious as the lift-off hits its maximum acceleration. However, when the inevitable correction strikes, the series of sell-downs typically result in a very rewarding average disposition price."

The re-endorsement — AGI is now "an attractive buy, or buy up, point"

"Thus far, we've avoided re-endorsing the gold miners. However, at $29, for AGI, we think it is now an attractive buy, or buy up, point."
Valuation: "currently trading at just 10.4 times earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio looks reasonable though not rock bottom."
Asset quality: "it has also almost tripled its gold reserves over the last 10 years and the quality of its grades have improved by roughly 35%."

The track record — from ~$8 in 2022 to ~$55

"We admit to having a positive bias on this miner. AGI was one of the earliest entries on our 2022 buy list when it was trading around $8."
"Toward the end of that year, we flagged its impressive breakout over $10. It subsequently broke out again, piercing above $12. After that, it was off to the races, topping out around $55 in February of this year."

The earthquake — a one-off that "fades into insignificance"

"Part of AGI's recent weakness is attributable to an earthquake that hit its Young-Davidson mine in Ontario last month… severe enough to trigger a 12% cut in AGI's production estimate for the second quarter and a reduction in full-year output projections."
"Natural disasters, like earthquakes, are common in the mining industry, but they tend to fade into insignificance over time."

Forward earnings — under 10× 2027

"Despite that, the Bloomberg consensus estimates $2.32 in 2026 earnings per share. Encouragingly, the forecast for 2027 is $3.27. Ergo, it is trading at less than 10x forward earnings."

Bullion — a correction within an ongoing bull market

"The price of bullion is, of course, a critical aspect, often THE most critical, for a gold miner. That, too, has come down hard, but we suspect it is a correction within an ongoing bull market."
The three supports: "central banks around the world remain aggressive buyers of the yellow metal"; "the odds of government bond crises becoming more acute are rising by the day"; and "the long-term monetary trend in most developed countries remains one of fiat currency debasement."

Retail negativity as the contrarian tell

"Retail investors continue to demonstrate a negativity to the miners that is truly remarkable considering how phenomenally they performed last year, ripping over 150%." (Illustrated with an RBC retail-flows chart.)
"We view this as a bullish factor based on retail investors' recurring tendency to be on the wrong side of the bull and bear moves in the miners."
Conclusion: "we are moving AGI back to the Buy List. Based on price and fundamental developments, before long we may bump it up to a Strong Buy."

New format — two or three shorter portfolio updates every Monday

"A new objective of ours is to provide you with two or three portfolio updates each Monday. This allows us to provide overviews on a wider range of securities we've put before you over the last few years."
"As a result, these will be shorter and, in some cases, we'll follow-up with a more in-depth review, similar to what we did with Yancoal and New Hope last Friday."

AESI — the full round trip of "one of the most mercurial companies"

Buy List at 18 in April 2025 (after earlier gain-harvesting on a prior run-up); "shortly thereafter, it began to lose altitude like a helicopter whose rotors had failed." They "suggested dollar-cost-averaging into it all the way down to around 8 ¾, where it bottomed late last year."
"Last November, we thought it was likely a victim of tax-loss selling, aggravating the weakness a series of poor quarters had started" — correct: "it rallied back to near $12 by January… At that point we moved it to a hold," then "by May it was close to $19, a truly spectacular return for anyone who bought last November."
"On May 15th, we lowered AESI to a Trim. Frankly, we had no idea it would crash all the way back down to sub-$12 where it is today."

The index-flow round trip — inclusion pumped it, removal crushed it

"A downside catalyst for this was its removal from a number of S&P Small Cap Growth indexes."
"This is ironic because it was S&P's inclusion in those same indices that created an artificial lift in late 2024, pushing it all the way up to $24 in January 2025. This spike ran counter to AESI's deteriorating business conditions back then; thus… it was a great time to ring the cash register, as we advised readers."
"Today, it's almost the inverse situation. The index removal is happening at a time when the outlook for oil services companies is on the upswing, albeit tentatively."

Why frac sand — the shale bottleneck and "the unprecedented oil shortage"

"AESI is the leading frac sand provider in America's most important oil-producing basin, the Permian." "You simply can't produce shale crude without frac sand (the majority of the USA's oil output is now from shale formations)."
"Sand volumes are recovering, though pricing remains soft. Yet, based on the unprecedented oil shortage which has developed — and is worsening, despite the various peace treaty head fakes — AESI's business should accelerate from here."

The LBRT caveat — already discounted

"One key near-term caveat is that its quasi-competitor, Liberty Energy (LBRT), recently reported a disappointing quarter. The market seems to be assuming AESI will, too."
"That's certainly possible but such an outcome now appears to be well-discounted after the price collapse since May."

The moat — the Dune Express, the power business, and a near-duopoly

"Its current beaten-down valuation… is giving short shrift to AESI's growing power supply business and its significant competitive advantage due to its Dune Express conveyor system," which "delivers sand close to drilling sites and greatly lowers transportation costs, not to mention reducing road congestion and accident rates."
"None of its competitors have anything like this invaluable infrastructure asset… the Dune Express will, over time, further entrench AESI's leadership position."
"Additionally, the frac sand business has become almost a duopoly. To us, this suggests very strong pricing power in the next up-cycle."
Action: "we're proposing buying a partial position here. Accordingly, we're also moving it back up to the Buy List, though not as a Strong Buy."

Portfolio-table housekeeping

The published Buy List notes that the AG and AGI entries were "revised to indicate earlier recommendation dates (to show overall performance)," and EXE's "recommended date revised to reflect earlier highlight" — presentation changes only, not ratings changes.
The Buy List and Holds/Trims tables themselves render as images in the post and were not captured here; the prose above carries every rating change in this issue.

3. In plain English

A jargon-free note on why each pick matters. (Companion to the table above; renders on each name's consolidated page.)

AGI — Alamos Gold Positive

Alamos Gold digs gold out of the ground in Canada and Mexico, so its share price is a leveraged bet on the gold price: when bullion rises, a miner's profits rise faster, and when bullion falls the shares fall harder. That is exactly what has happened. Gold miners exploded higher in late 2025, then rolled over — the main fund that holds the big senior miners is down 35% since the end of February — and Alamos has been "cut in half," from about $55 at its February peak to $29 today.

Hay's team sold into the melt-up rather than trying to pick the top: as the group "went vertical" they sold in tranches on the way up (a dollar-cost-average out), which felt too cautious at the time but locked in a good average exit price before the crash. Since then they have deliberately stayed quiet on miners. This post is them stepping back in: at $29 Alamos trades at 10.4 times its trailing earnings and under 10 times what analysts expect it to earn in 2027 ($3.27 a share), while the business itself has improved a lot — it has nearly tripled the amount of gold it has in the ground over ten years and the ore it mines is about 35% richer.

Two other pieces make the case. The recent bad news is a one-off: an earthquake at the Young-Davidson mine in Ontario knocked about 12% off second-quarter production and forced a cut to full-year guidance — the kind of accident that is common in mining and, Hay argues, "fades into insignificance over time." And the backdrop for gold itself still looks supportive: central banks keep buying bullion, government-debt problems are getting worse, and currencies keep losing purchasing power — so the drop in gold is "a correction within an ongoing bull market," not the end of one. Finally, small investors are unusually sour on miners right after a year in which they rose over 150%; because retail money is habitually wrong at these turns, Hay reads that gloom as a buy signal. Alamos goes back on the Haymaker Buy List, with a possible upgrade to Strong Buy ahead.

AESI — Atlas Energy Solutions Positive

Atlas Energy Solutions sells frac sand — the ordinary-looking sand that gets pumped underground at enormous pressure to prop open cracks in shale rock so oil can flow out. Most US oil now comes from shale, so no sand means no barrels. Atlas is the biggest supplier in the Permian Basin, the country's most important oil field, and it owns something no rival has: the Dune Express, a long conveyor belt that carries sand most of the way to the well sites instead of trucking it, which cuts costs (and truck accidents). With only about two real players left in the business, Hay expects strong pricing power the next time drilling activity picks up.

The stock has been a roller coaster, and this note is unusually candid about it: recommended at 18 in April 2025, bought down in stages to a bottom near 8¾, moved to a hold near $12 in January after a tax-loss-selling rebound Hay correctly predicted, then it ran to nearly $19 by May, where he told readers to trim. It has since collapsed back below $12. The trigger was mechanical rather than fundamental — S&P kicked it out of several small-cap growth indexes, which forces index funds to sell no matter what the business is doing. Hay points out the delicious symmetry: the same indexes added the stock in late 2024, which artificially pushed it to $24 even as the business was deteriorating — the perfect moment to sell. Now the opposite is happening: forced selling into an improving outlook.

His fundamental case is that oil is genuinely short — "the unprecedented oil shortage which has developed — and is worsening, despite the various peace treaty head fakes" — so drilling, and therefore sand demand, should accelerate; volumes are already recovering even though prices per ton are still weak. The known risk is that competitor Liberty Energy just posted a bad quarter and the market assumes Atlas will do the same, but after a 40%-plus fall Hay thinks that is already in the price. He is buying a partial position (not a full one) and moving Atlas back onto the Buy List — a Buy, not a Strong Buy.

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.