David Hay — A Billion Ain't Worth A Trillion (Haymaker, Jun 2026)

One-line take: A short macro caution daily — no stock picks. Per Vincent Deluard: since the NYSE's 1792 founding there have been ~$1.5 trillion of IPOs in total, yet ~$4.6 trillion are slated to hit the market this summer alone (IPO debuts are typically modest — Google's 2004 Dutch Auction was a $23B total cap). This looming issuance may be why so few stocks join the new-high party — only ~5% of the S&P 500 is at ATHs, money perhaps already leaving the other ~475 to prepare to pay for the IPOs. The actual cash drain is <10% of the $4.6T headline (the rest stays locked with management/employees/early VCs), but hundreds of billions to trillions in share value will hit the market — and because most get fast-tracked into the S&P 500/NASDAQ, index operators must buy them in rising quantities, a recipe for escalating selling pressure on the rest of the market, including (perhaps particularly) the Magnificent Seven. Feeds the master macro viewpoints.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

No individual stock picks in this piece — it's a macro caution daily about IPO/issuance supply and forced index buying. Referenced only as illustrations: Alphabet (GOOGL — its modest $23B 2004 Dutch-Auction debut) and the Magnificent Seven as the likely funding source; the source is Vincent Deluard. The substance is in the talking points below and the master macro viewpoints.

2. Talking points

$1.5T total since 1792 — vs $4.6T this summer (Deluard)

Since the NYSE's 1792 founding there have been roughly $1.5 trillion of IPOs in total, yet ~$4.6 trillion are slated to hit the market this summer alone. IPO valuations are typically modest at debut — Google's 2004 Dutch Auction was a $23B total cap.

Why so few stocks are at new highs

This looming issuance may be why so few stocks join the new-high party — only ~5% of the S&P 500 is at ATHs, with money possibly already leaving the other ~475 to prepare to pay for the IPOs, while only the most exciting AI names keep hitting highs.

The real cash drain — and the index-inclusion mechanism

The actual cash drain is <10% of the $4.6T headline (the rest stays locked up with management, employees and early VCs). But before long, hundreds of billions to trillions in share value will hit the market.
Because most get fast-tracked into the S&P 500 / NASDAQ, index operators must buy them in rising quantities — a recipe for escalating selling pressure on the rest of the market, including (perhaps particularly) the Magnificent Seven.

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker Substack post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.