David Hay — Deficits, doubts, and data centers (Haymaker, Jun 2026)

One-line take: A short macro "Haymaker Daily" weighing crosscurrents — no stock picks. The negatives: depressed consumer sentiment, sluggish car/home sales, surging gasoline/electricity prices, decelerating tax receipts, and pessimistic CEOs (only 15% see improvement, 47% see worsening). The buoyancy: AI data-center construction + a federal deficit up $365B to >$2T (and a planned +$500B in military spending) — but both are likely to ebb if the data-center build hits a wall (≈ half of planned centers delayed/cancelled on power shortages) and as interest outlays bite with the 10-yr Treasury threatening >5%. The durable offset: a dramatic AI-driven productivity acceleration (per JPM's Cembalest, Real GDP & Gross Domestic Output have jumped since ChatGPT in late 2022) — critical given missing US labor-force growth, and "in its early days." Feeds the master macro viewpoints (deficits, AI productivity, rates).

1. Stocks & names mentioned

No individual equities or stock picks in this piece — it's a macro daily (the economy's crosscurrents, the deficit, data centers, Treasury yields, AI productivity). Named only: J.P. Morgan's Michael Cembalest (cited for the productivity data) and Evergreen Gavekal (Hay's affiliation). The substance is in the talking points below and the master macro viewpoints.

2. Talking points

The negative crosscurrents

Consumer sentiment "extraordinarily depressed"; car/home sales sluggish; gasoline & electricity prices surging; tax receipts decelerating; CEOs pessimistic (15% improving vs 47% worsening).

The fiscal / data-center buoyancy

Soaring AI data-center construction plus the federal deficit up $365B to >$2T this year (OMB), with a planned +$500B in military spending — a high level of economic buoyancy (and more fiscal stimulus to come).

Why both positives are likely to ebb

Roughly half of planned data centers are being delayed or cancelled, mostly for lack of power. And vaulting interest outlays are already problematic, with long-term Treasury yields threatening to break above 5%.

The durable offset — AI productivity

Per JPM's Michael Cembalest, both Real GDP and Gross Domestic Output show dramatic productivity accelerations since ChatGPT arrived in late 2022 — critical where US labor-force growth has gone missing. The boost is "in its early days" and likely to stay well above normal, helping offset the fading fiscal/data-center impulses.

Summary derived from the public Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.