| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APA | APA Corp | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Energy pick (oil-tracking) — likes the chart and valuation; a five-year chart shows it broke its long-term downtrend last year, and the P/E and Price/Sales are "extremely undemanding." Part of a long-term valuation elevation toward growth-stock multiples. | read |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Energy pick (oil-tracking) — likes the chart and valuation; concedes it "has not yet broken out" but contends it will "before long" (could be wrong). Multiples "extremely undemanding," well above last year's throw-away lows. | read |
| HAL | Halliburton | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | New name — an oil-service company that closely tracks oil & gas producers; likes the chart and valuation. Not yet broken out, but he expects it will "before long"; multiples "extremely undemanding." | read |
| RRC | Range Resources | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Energy pick (natural-gas-tracking) — likes the chart and valuation; his preferred end of the energy trade, as he stays "more bullish on natural gas than oil" long term. Multiples "extremely undemanding." | read |
| HBM | Hudbay Minerals | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Moved from Hold to Hold/Trim after ~+175% (recommended ~$10.46 last July, now ~$29 off an all-time high). Take partial profits to de-risk a large, cyclically extended position; hold a core for the genuine late-decade copper deficit. Don't add here; re-add on a substantial pullback (copper to $5–5.50/lb on a confirmed surplus, or a deeper gold drop that unwinds the negative-cash-cost story). Price/Sales near a 5-yr high; consensus target only ~$30. | read |
"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating; the four energy names are Buy-list picks (HAL new), while HBM is a profit-taking trim. Referenced only: EOG Resources (EOG — covered in last week's Trading Alert, not re-rated here); copper (record ~$13,000/t) and gold/silver, WTI (~$50 in 2011 dollars) and the by-product-credit cost mechanic live in the talking points and the master macro tables, not as tickers. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it is and why he holds that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
Hudbay is a copper miner that also produces a lot of gold as a by-product. Haymaker recommended it last July around $10.46 when copper was hated; it's now about $29 — up roughly 175%. Three things drove that: copper hit record prices, gold's record run made Hudbay's by-product gold so valuable it effectively paid for all the copper (Hudbay's "cost" to mine copper briefly went negative), and the market re-rated the stock from a boring cyclical to a prized copper growth story.
The catch is that all three are near their best-case levels at once, so the stock is now a concentrated bet on copper and gold staying at records — and gold has started slipping. On normal mid-cycle metal prices it's no longer cheap (one valuation gauge sits near a five-year high), and analysts' average target is barely above today's price. So Haymaker is moving it from "Hold" to "Hold/Trim": sell some to lock in a big gain, keep a core piece for the real copper shortage expected later this decade, and look to buy more only if copper or gold drops hard. The lesson he cites: don't let a great winner round-trip back down the way the gold and silver miners just did.
APA is an oil-and-gas producer. Haymaker likes it on two counts: the chart (its price broke out of a multi-year downtrend last year) and the valuation, which is very cheap on both earnings and sales versus how the market prices growth companies. The bigger idea is that beaten-down, hated energy stocks like this are slowly being "re-rated" — investors warming up to them so their valuations drift higher over time toward normal levels.
Diamondback is a low-cost shale oil producer. Haymaker likes the valuation (cheap on earnings and sales) and thinks it's about to break out to new highs, though he admits it hasn't yet and he could be wrong. It's part of the same bet: oil is unusually cheap (the US oil price, adjusted for inflation, is back near 2011 levels) while global oil inventories are at crisis lows, so these producers are mispriced.
Halliburton is an oil-services company — it sells the drilling and fracking services that oil producers buy, so its stock tends to move with the producers. It's a brand-new pick for Haymaker, added because the chart and valuation look attractive (very cheap multiples). Like Diamondback, it hasn't broken out yet, but he expects it will. It's a way to play an oil recovery one step removed from the drillers themselves.
Range Resources is a natural-gas producer, so its stock tracks gas prices rather than oil. It's Haymaker's preferred corner of the energy trade because he's even more bullish on natural gas than on oil over the long run (gas demand from data centers, exports and electricity keeps growing). Same reasoning as the others: a cheap valuation he expects to rise as the market warms to energy.
Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.