David Hay — Hi, Ho—And How Low—Silver?
"One sick chart" — but "the fundamentals for silver are extremely encouraging." After a crash from ~$120 to ~$58, gradually accumulate the metal and First Majestic (AG).
One-line take: A post-mortem on the silver round-trip — the Jan-29 Daily called the vertical move a blow-off top, and silver crashed from ~$120/oz in late January to ~$77 a week later, eased to the upper-$60s by March (a re-buy), bounced to ~$80–89 (more gain-harvesting), then plunged again to ~$58, below the 200-day — "one sick chart." Hay's own playbook ran through the metal via futures (bought 2,000 oz ~$69 on the Mar-23 buy alert, sold half ~$79 for a ~15% gain) and through First Majestic (AG), the silver miner written up bullishly last summer (+~170%) and trimmed via Trading Alerts on the spikes. Beyond the ugly technicals the fundamentals are "extremely encouraging": very constrained supply against robust demand (munitions replenishment, AI data-center buildout, grid upgrades), the market swinging from a moderate surplus into a pronounced deficit, and futures open interest at a multi-year low (extreme bearishness) that could set up another spike. Suggested action now: gradual accumulation of silver and AG despite the poor chart.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| AG | First Majestic Silver | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | The silver miner written up bullishly last summer (+~170% at its peak). Played as a trade on the spikes — the Jan-26 Trading Alert suggested "a bit of gain-harvesting" ("AG could keep running, but is likely to get pummeled… on any correction in 'poor man's gold'"), and they note they should have done another gain-harvest when it ripped to the ~$30 vicinity. After the silver crash, with the metal's deficit fundamentals "extremely encouraging" and futures open interest at a multi-year low, they'd now suggest gradual accumulation despite the poor technical set-up. | read |
"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating. Referenced as a commodity, not a ticker: silver the metal — Hay's primary vehicle here (traded via futures: bought 2,000 oz ~$69, sold half ~$79; now suggests gradual accumulation around ~$58) — is a commodity and lives in the talking points + the master macro tables, not as a security row (it is not the iShares Silver ETF). "Poor man's gold" = silver. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Talking points
The blow-off-top call — and the instant crash
- As 2025 turned into 2026 silver went vertical; the Jan-29 Daily opined precious metals looked like a blow-off top. "As soon as those words published, silver crashed as swiftly and severely as it had soared."
- Companion Jan-26 Trading Alert: do "a bit of gain-harvesting" on First Majestic (AG), the silver miner written up last summer, up ~170% since — it "could keep running, but is likely to get pummeled, at least temporarily, on any correction in 'poor man's gold'."
The round-trip — $120 → $77 → upper-$60s → $80s → $58
- From ~$120/oz in late January, silver crashed to ~$77 within a week (AG held up better but still backed off ~27%). By March it eased to the upper-$60s — prompting a re-buy proposal.
- After a partial recovery to the ~$80 range, they proposed traders take some gains on silver the metal. From $89 in mid-May silver plunged again, taking out the early-February low — now around $58, below the 200-day moving average. "One sick chart."
How Hay traded it — gain-harvesting via futures, and the trims they missed
- Apr-15 Trading Alert: "It's time to ring the silver cash register again… at least partially." On the Mar-23 "buy silver" alert, Hay bought 2,000 ounces via futures around $69; at ~$79 that was almost a 15% gain in weeks, and he sold half his position.
- Candid hindsight: they should have suggested another trim near $90 (hit twice this spring), and another gain-harvest on First Majestic when it ripped to the ~$30 vicinity.
Beyond the technicals — the deficit fundamentals are "extremely encouraging"
- Supply is very constrained; demand is "exceedingly robust" — military applications (replenishing depleted munitions), the AI data-center buildout, and upgrading America's rickety electrical grid.
- The mismatch is moving the silver market from a moderate surplus into a pronounced deficit.
Sentiment is washed out — the setup for another spike
- Open interest on silver futures sits at a multi-year low — i.e., extreme bearishness. With supply tight and demand rising, "the stage may be set for another price spike."
- The suggested action: gradual accumulation now — of silver the metal and of AG — "despite the poor technical set-up."
3. In plain English
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind the name — what it is and why he holds that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on the ticker's consolidated page.)
AG — First Majestic Silver Positive
First Majestic is a silver mining company, so its stock acts like a leveraged bet on the silver price — when silver soars the stock soars more, and when silver crashes it falls hard too. Haymaker recommended it last summer; it ran up about 170%, and as silver went vertical into early 2026 they told subscribers to "gain-harvest" — sell some to lock in profits — because a miner like this almost always gets hammered when the metal corrects. That call was right: silver collapsed from about $120 an ounce to roughly $58, and AG fell with it.
Here's why they're now buyers again despite the awful-looking chart. The actual supply-and-demand picture for silver is very bullish: not much new supply is coming, while demand keeps growing from three big sources — the military restocking munitions, the build-out of AI data centers, and the rewiring of America's aging electrical grid. That is pushing the silver market from a small surplus into a real shortage (a "deficit"). On top of that, traders in the silver futures market are about as bearish as they've been in years (a "multi-year low" in open interest), which is often the kind of washed-out, everyone-has-given-up moment that precedes a sharp rebound. So rather than try to call the exact bottom, Haymaker suggests buying gradually — adding a little at a time to both the metal and to AG — and using the proven discipline of harvesting gains again into the next vertical spike.
Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice; this is a paid post and only the text captured for personal study is summarized here. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.