Title: Haymaker Daily — Group Non-Think Show: Haymaker (Substack) — Haymaker Daily Guest: David Hay / The Haymaker Team Date: 2026-05-27 (PAID) URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-59d Length: written post (no timestamps) Note: Summary of the macro Haymaker Daily; key figures and the APA illustration preserved. No audio/timestamps.
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Team Haymaker vehemently disagrees with the widespread belief that once Hormuz reopens, oil plunges back to $60–70. There is now roughly 1 billion barrels of cumulative lost supply, heading toward ~1.5 billion. Even assuming global production can run 2 mb/d above demand — a heroic assumption — it would take about 1.5 years to make up the lost output.
Industrialized-country SPRs have been drawn to dangerously low levels. Goehring & Rozencwajg believe replenishing global SPRs takes several years (+1 mb/d of demand through most of the decade), and nations like Pakistan are newly building reserves.
G&R: "Gulf supply will return to a system that was quickly tightening, that is now starved of inventory… Inventories will not rebuild gracefully. They may not rebuild at all."
So accumulate energy shares — and even oil itself — on weakness like the recent ceasefire-hope dip. A formal ceasefire could ease prices further, which would be an outstanding buying opportunity. The best method is to methodically dollar-cost-average into the sector given extreme volatility, focusing on names with 2-year breakouts that have settled back and look poised for longer-term range expansion. APA Corp (Apache) is a good illustration.