Title: Haymaker Daily — Time For Some Appreciation of Depreciation Show: Haymaker (Substack) — Haymaker Daily Guest: David Hay / The Haymaker Team Date: 2026-05-28 (PAID) URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-4fb Length: written post (no timestamps) Note: Summary of the macro Haymaker Daily; key figures preserved. No audio/timestamps.
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(Citing Vincent Deluard / StoneX.) Academic studies show heavy-capex companies lag the market over the long term — yet we are seeing one of the greatest capex sprees ever, from the famously "capital-light" superstars.
The four leading hyperscalers — Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon — are on track to spend ~$700B this year, mostly on AI. That sets up an extraordinary spike in depreciation over the decade, especially using a realistic ~4-year asset life given chip obsolescence (some say ~7 years — call it ~5).
Despite this accounting drag, S&P 500 earnings estimates remain very optimistic, and returns on the outlays are uncertain. That creates a dramatic divergence between profit margins (reported earnings) and free-cash-flow margins — which Buffett and others consider more important.
The binge may boost US productivity (growing sales and earnings with lower headcount). A further irony: AI may benefit the less-glamorous slices of corporate America more than the Mag 7 / the "Fab Four" themselves.