David Hay — Friday POW!: trim refreshes — CK Hutchison (CKHUY) + Copper Miners (COPX)
No new name this week — "a couple of tactical moves on two existing names," both second trims: a deal-arbitrage position whose price is back where it was last trimmed while "the geopolitical complexity has increased rather than decreased," and a copper ETF that has "doubled in 12 months" while "institutional money has been selling into the strength."
One-line take: a sell-discipline edition of the POW! — the house restating that "a big part of our value-add to our readers is ensuring that you take gains when certain positions have had a significant run up… no one ever went broke taking profits." CK Hutchison (CKHUY) — trim again, and watch the deal. Bought Nov-10-2025 at $6.78, trimmed Jul-20-2026 at $8.95 (+32%), now ~$8.88 — "essentially flat since the trim." The original thesis was a sum-of-parts unlock: Li Ka-shing's conglomerate selling ~43 global ports to a BlackRock-led consortium at a $22.8B EV. Since then Panama's supreme court voided the Balboa and Cristobal concessions (interim operations to Maersk and MSC), CK Hutchison launched arbitration for "more than $1.5 billion," and Cosco and MSC joined the consortium "to secure Beijing's backing." The bull case "in one sentence" is Bloomberg's Aug-26 report that the company "expects to sell the remaining 43-port global portfolio at the original $22.8 billion enterprise value, even with the Panama terminals excluded," with H1 underlying profit +6.7% and ports EBITDA +4% despite a HK$496M Panama hit. But "at $8.88, the position is approximately where the July trim was recommended, and the geopolitical complexity has increased rather than decreased"; "trading at a 259% premium to some fair-value estimates is a significant caution signal and the market may be overpricing deal certainty"; and the arbitration "is a multi-year process not a near-term catalyst." Verdict: "We recommend trimming CKHUY and monitoring deal progress." Global X Copper Miners (COPX) — trim 25–33% more, keep the core. Highlighted Aug-25-2025 at $46.67, first trim May-15-2026, now ~$90–94 (+92–102%), within 6–10% of its all-time high on a $51.52–$99.99 52-week range. "The thesis that got us into COPX at $46.67 was correct" — AI data centers, electrification, reshoring and a supply side where "new projects take a decade," so "the structural deficit is real" — and the Hormuz crisis added grid resiliency, which "requires immense amounts of copper." "What has changed, in a big way, is the price." The tell is flows: $331M of outflows over a month and $306M over three months — "institutional money has been selling into the strength," and "when smart money exits at the highs while retail and momentum players push the last 10% of a 100% move, history suggests patience" (the retail-outflow counter-argument is raised and rejected). Instruction: "reducing by another 25% to 33% at current levels locks in a portion of those gains while maintaining exposure… if a breakout above $99 takes hold." Postscript: "the day after we wrote this piece, COPX fell by about 7%." No Buys / Trims-Holds / Sells tables with this issue.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | QT · SA · STK | Neutral | Second trim, core kept — "We are recommending trimming COPX again at current levels," "reducing by another 25% to 33%," while "the long-term structural thesis on copper remains intact and we are not exiting the position." Highlighted Aug-25-2025 at $46.67, first trim May-15-2026; now ~$90 in the text and $94.38 in the data box (+92–102%), 52-week range $51.52–$99.99, AUM ~$22.7B, 0.65% expense ratio, ~2.02% yield, P/E 16.09x. "The thesis… was correct" (AI data centers, electrification, reshoring; a decade-long mine lead time; "the structural deficit is real"), plus Hormuz-driven grid-resiliency spending — but "what has changed, in a big way, is the price": outflows of $96M (5 days), $331M (1 month), $306M (3 months) read as "institutional money… selling into the strength." Bear risks listed: US-China tariffs, a Hormuz ceasefire, dollar strength, China's property overhang (China "consumes over 50%" of world copper). Upside trigger: "a breakout above $99." Postscript: fell ~7% the day after writing. | read ↗ |
| CKHUY | CK Hutchison Holdings (ADR) | QT · SA | Negative | Second trim on rising deal risk — "We recommend trimming CKHUY and monitoring deal progress." Bought Nov-10-2025 at $6.78, trimmed Jul-20-2026 at $8.95 (+32%), now ~$8.88, "essentially flat since the trim." Thesis = sum-of-parts unlock from selling ~43 ports to a BlackRock-led consortium at $22.8B EV; since then Panama's supreme court voided the Balboa/Cristobal concessions (interim operations to Maersk and MSC), CK Hutchison filed arbitration for "more than $1.5 billion" (and a separate one against Maersk), and Cosco + MSC joined the consortium. Bull case "in one sentence": Bloomberg (Aug-26) says it "expects to sell the remaining 43-port global portfolio at the original $22.8 billion enterprise value, even with the Panama terminals excluded"; H1 underlying profit +6.7%, ports EBITDA +4% despite a HK$496M Panama hit. Against it: "the geopolitical complexity has increased rather than decreased," a "259% premium to some fair-value estimates" means "the market may be overpricing deal certainty," Beijing hesitation / regulation / renegotiation could delay or cut proceeds, and the arbitration is "a multi-year process not a near-term catalyst." | read ↗ |
"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post. Both names are existing holdings receiving a second trim, not exits. COPX is Neutral because the trim sits beside an explicit "why we're still believers" section and a stated breakout trigger; CKHUY is Negative because the stated risk has risen since the last trim and the valuation is flagged as "a significant caution signal." Referenced only (not rowed): BlackRock (consortium lead), China Cosco and MSC (added to the consortium), A.P. Moller-Maersk (interim Panama operator and arbitration counterparty), Li Ka-shing, the Panama supreme court, Bloomberg (the Aug-26 report and both COPX charts), and the Solactive Global Copper Miners Total Return Index that COPX tracks. No Buys / Trims-Holds / Sells tables were published with this issue. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
2. Talking points
The frame — taking gains is the product too
- No new equity this week, by design: "Today, we will be advising Haymakers to make a couple of tactical moves on two existing names in the portfolio. While we often (and love to) introduce new equities, we also believe that a big part of our value-add to our readers is ensuring that you take gains when certain positions have had a significant run up."
- The saying offered in support — "no one ever went broke taking profits… especially, when those gains are around 100%" — fits the house's cash-raising stance since Aug-3 and the Sep-8 ACN exit.
CKHUY — where the position stands
- Entry Nov-10-2025 at $6.78; trim Jul-20-2026 at $8.95 (+32%); now ~$8.88. "Reducing the position was the right call given the geopolitical complexity of the deal and the elevated uncertainty we felt at that price level."
- The original thesis was simple: the conglomerate "was selling approximately 43 global ports to a BlackRock-led consortium at an enterprise value of $22.8 billion, with proceeds unlocking substantial hidden value in a stock that had traded at a persistent discount to sum-of-parts."
CKHUY — what has changed since July
- The Panama Canal terminals at Balboa and Cristobal — "the geopolitical flashpoint between Washington and Beijing" — "have since been forcibly taken over by Panama's supreme court, with interim operations handed to Maersk and MSC." CK Hutchison answered with arbitration "seeking more than $1.5 billion in damages," plus a separate arbitration against Maersk.
- Deal structure: China Cosco and MSC added to the BlackRock consortium "to secure Beijing's backing," with the deal still targeted at the original $22.8B EV.
- Operations held up: H1 2026 underlying profit +6.7%, ports EBITDA +4% "despite the HK$496 million Panama disruption."
CKHUY — the one data point, and why it isn't enough
- "The recent headline from Bloomberg is probably the most important current data point": the company "expects to sell the remaining 43-port global portfolio at the original $22.8 billion enterprise value, even with the Panama terminals excluded. That is the bull case in one sentence — if true, the market is not adequately pricing the deal proceeds."
- Against it: the price is back at the last trim level while "the geopolitical complexity has increased rather than decreased"; a "259% premium to some fair-value estimates is a significant caution signal"; and the expanded consortium "faces continued regulatory uncertainty, Beijing hesitation, or renegotiation pressure."
- The arbitration is deliberately not counted: "while potentially yielding $1.5 billion, [it] is a multi-year process not a near-term catalyst." For holders of the reduced position, "the core rationale (deal value unlocking) is intact, but the timeline is uncertain and the valuation flag deserves consideration."
COPX — the record, and the instrument
- Highlighted Aug-25-2025 at $46.67, first trim May-15-2026, "trading today near $90, a gain of approximately 92% in just over a year" (the data box uses $94.38 and ~102%).
- The ETF tracks the Solactive Global Copper Miners Total Return Index — a market-cap-weighted basket of producers — with AUM ~$22.7B, a 0.65% expense ratio and a ~2.02% yield. The two Bloomberg charts show a ~$47 ceiling that held from 2011 to 2025 and the 2025 break above it.
COPX — why still believers
- Demand: "data centers require copper in wiring, cooling systems, and power distribution at multiples of conventional construction"; electrification and reshoring are copper-intensive too. "Those major tailwinds have not changed."
- Supply: years of underinvestment, and "new projects take a decade to bring online. Basically, the structural deficit is real."
- A newer driver: the Hormuz crisis prompted "a re-think about accelerating the transition to domestic energy sources," and "improving the U.S. electrical grid's resiliency… requires immense amounts of copper."
COPX — what changed is the price, and the flows say so
- "What has changed, in a big way, is the price. COPX has doubled in 12 months." The risk-reward "of holding a full position has shifted massively."
- The signal: outflows of $96M over five days, $331M over a month, $306M over three months — "institutional money has been selling into the strength, not adding to it." The obvious rebuttal (retail outflows) is named and rejected: COPX "has been a convenient and heavily used vehicle for professional money managers and investment advisors to play the copper story."
- Bear risks listed: US-China tariff escalation, a Hormuz ceasefire lowering energy-security urgency, dollar strength, and China's property overhang (China "consumes over 50% of the world's total copper output").
COPX — the sizing instruction
- "Reducing by another 25% to 33% at current levels locks in a portion of those gains while maintaining exposure to the structural copper thesis through what could be a meaningful further leg if a breakout above $99 takes hold."
- Postscript on timing: "the day after we wrote this piece, COPX fell by about 7%; despite that, it remains nearly a double from our original highlight."
3. In plain English
COPX — Global X Copper Miners ETF Neutral
COPX is a fund that owns a basket of copper-mining companies, so it rises and falls with the copper price and with how much investors want to own miners. Haymaker recommended it a year ago at about $47, sold part of it in May, and it is now around $90 — nearly double.
The reasons to own copper haven't changed. Data centres, electric cars, power grids and new US factories all need a lot of copper wire, and new mines take about ten years to build, so supply is struggling to keep up. The Strait of Hormuz crisis added another reason: countries want more home-grown energy, and a stronger electric grid means even more copper.
What changed is the price. After a double in a year, the upside is smaller and the downside bigger. Haymaker also notes that professional money has been pulling out of the fund — about $331 million in a month — while prices kept rising, which often happens near a peak. So the advice is to sell another quarter to a third of what you still hold, bank some profit, and keep the rest in case the price breaks above $99. The day after it was written, the fund fell about 7%.
CKHUY — CK Hutchison Holdings Negative
CK Hutchison is a Hong Kong conglomerate controlled by the Li Ka-shing family. The reason Haymaker bought it (at $6.78) was a planned sale of its global ports business — about 43 ports — to a group led by BlackRock for $22.8 billion. The idea was that the sale would reveal how much the pieces are really worth, since the stock traded below the value of its parts.
The deal got political. Two ports next to the Panama Canal were at the centre of a US-China fight, and Panama's supreme court took them away from the company. CK Hutchison is suing for more than $1.5 billion, but that could take years. To get China's approval, the buyer group added China's state shipping company Cosco and the shipping line MSC. The good news: Bloomberg reports the company still expects $22.8 billion for the remaining ports, and the underlying business is still growing.
Haymaker already sold part of the position in July at $8.95. The stock is about the same price now, but the deal looks riskier, and some estimates say the stock is well above fair value — so the market may be too sure the deal closes. The advice is to sell more and keep an eye on the deal. This is a special-situation bet on one deal closing, not a long-term compounder.
Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.