Title: Friday POW! — Pick(s) of the Week: trim refreshes on CK Hutchison (CKHUY) and Global X Copper Miners (COPX)
Show: Haymaker (Substack, paid post)
Guest: David Hay / The Haymaker Team
Date: 2026-09-11
URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/friday-pow-ad1
Length: written post — no timestamps (~1,900 words)
Note: Written Substack post (no video). Body text captured verbatim from the paid post via logged-in session. The post's header graphic is omitted; its two Bloomberg COPX charts are transcribed below as [Chart image — …] blocks (originals not reproduced). No Buys / Trims-Holds / Sells tables were published with this issue. Standard Haymaker legal disclosures retained in abbreviated form at the end. Byline date on the page: SEP 11, 2026.

Friday POW!
Pick(s) of the Week

HAYMAKER
SEP 11, 2026 ∙ PAID

Today, we will be advising Haymakers to make a couple of tactical moves on two existing names in the portfolio. While we often (and love to) introduce new equities, we also believe that a big part of our value-add to our readers is ensuring that you take gains when certain positions have had a significant run up. As the saying goes, no one ever went broke taking profits… especially, when those gains are around 100%, as in the case of our second refresh.)

CK Hutchison Holdings (CKHUY) — Original recommendation November 10, 2025 at $6.78 | Trim recommended July 20, 2026 at $8.95

Key Data Points

Entry November 10, 2025 at $6.78; trim July 20, 2026 at $8.95 (+32%); current price ~$8.88 (flat since trim)

Panama Supreme Court voided CK Hutchison's concessions for Balboa and Cristobal terminals; interim operations transferred to Maersk and MSC

CK Hutchison launched international arbitration against Panama seeking >$1.5B in damages; separate arbitration against AP Moller-Maersk also initiated

Deal structure updated: China Cosco and MSC added to BlackRock consortium to secure Beijing's backing; deal still targeted at original $22.8B enterprise value

H1 2026 results: underlying profit +6.7%; ports EBITDA +4% despite HK$496M Panama hit; group remains operationally solid

Bloomberg (August 26): CK Hutchison expects to sell remaining global ports portfolio at original $22.8B EV despite Panama loss

Where We've Been With This Name

We recommended CK Hutchison on November 10, 2025 at $6.78 and recommended trimming the position on July 20, 2026 at $8.95, representing a gain of approximately 32% from the original entry to the trim. The stock is trading today at approximately $8.88, or essentially flat since the trim was recommended. Reducing the position was the right call given the geopolitical complexity of the deal and the elevated uncertainty we felt at that price level.

What has happened since then, though, is worthy of an update.

The State of the Story

Frankly, we think the CK Hutchison story has grown considerably more complex since we first recommended it and more complex still since the July trim. The original thesis when we established a position was relatively straightforward: Li Ka-shing's (one of Hong Kong's richest men) conglomerate was selling approximately 43 global ports to a BlackRock-led consortium at an enterprise value of $22.8 billion, with proceeds unlocking substantial hidden value in a stock that had traded at a persistent discount to sum-of-parts. The Panama Canal terminals at Balboa and Cristobal, which had been the geopolitical flashpoint between Washington and Beijing, have since been forcibly taken over by Panama's supreme court, with interim operations handed to Maersk and MSC. In response, CK Hutchison has launched international arbitration against Panama seeking more than $1.5 billion in damages.

In our view, the recent headline from Bloomberg is probably the most important current data point: CK Hutchison expects to sell the remaining 43-port global portfolio at the original $22.8 billion enterprise value, even with the Panama terminals excluded. That is the bull case in one sentence — if true, the market is not adequately pricing the deal proceeds that would flow to shareholders. The H1 2026 underlying profit growth of 6.7% and the ports EBITDA growing 4% despite the HK$496 million Panama disruption show an operationally resilient conglomerate beneath the geopolitical headlines.

The Bottom Line

Our basic take is that, at $8.88, the position is approximately where the July trim was recommended, and the geopolitical complexity has increased rather than decreased. CKHUY trading at a 259% premium to some fair-value estimates is a significant caution signal and the market may be overpricing deal certainty. The thesis for remaining holders is deal closure at or near the original enterprise value.

The risk is that the BlackRock consortium, now expanded to include Cosco and MSC, faces continued regulatory uncertainty, Beijing hesitation, or renegotiation pressure that delays or reduces the deal proceeds. The Panama arbitration, while potentially yielding $1.5 billion, is a multi-year process not a near-term catalyst. For subscribers who trimmed at $8.95 and are holding a reduced position: the core rationale (deal value unlocking) is intact, but the timeline is uncertain and the valuation flag deserves consideration.

We recommend trimming CKHUY and monitoring deal progress.

Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) — Original recommendation August 25, 2025 at $46.67 | Trim recommended May 15, 2026 at $83.05

(Unfortunately, the day after we wrote this piece, COPX fell by about 7%; despite that, it remains nearly a double from our original highlight.)

Key Data Points

Entry August 25, 2025 at $46.67; first trim recommended May 15, 2026; current price $94.38; gain from original entry ~102%

52-week range $51.52–$99.99; trading within 6% of all-time high; AUM ~$22.7B; expense ratio 0.65%; dividend yield ~2.02%; P/E 16.09x

Net outflows: $96M over five days, $331M over one month, $306M over three months; institutional selling into strength

Copper structural thesis intact: AI data centers, electrification, defense, reshoring all require copper at scale; supply deficit persists

Bear risks: U.S.-China tariff escalation reducing Chinese copper demand; Hormuz ceasefire reducing energy security urgency; dollar strength; Chinese property sector overhang (China consumes over 50% of the world's total copper output)

Where We've Been With This Name

We recommended COPX on August 25, 2025, at $46.67. It is trading today near $90, a gain of approximately 92% in just over a year. We recommended a first trim on May 15, 2026. The long-term structural thesis on copper remains intact and we are not exiting the position. But at $90 with a 52-week range of $51.52 to $99.99, and the ETF within 10% of its all-time high, the risk-reward of holding a full position has shifted massively from where we entered, and we think exercising some portfolio discipline here makes sense.

[Chart image — Bloomberg ("Evergreen via Bloomberg"), "Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)," COPX US Equity daily, 11SEP2021–10SEP2026. Last price 88.61. A horizontal line marks prior overhead resistance at roughly $47 — the late-2021 high, retested in early 2024 (brief spike to ~$53) and again in mid-2025 — which capped the ETF for about four years (2022 low ~$27; a sharp spring-2025 dip to ~$31). Price broke above that line in mid/late 2025 and ran almost vertically to ~$95 by late 2025, then chopped in a wide ~$70–$96 range through 2026 (lows ~$69–73), printing a fresh high near ~$97 just before the latest reading drops back to 88.61.]

[Chart image — Bloomberg ("Evergreen via Bloomberg"), "Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)," COPX US Equity daily, 11SEP2011–10SEP2026 (15-year view). Last price 88.61. The same ~$47 horizontal line now reads as a 15-year ceiling: the 2011 starting level (~$45–47), matched at the 2021 and 2022 peaks and the 2024 spike. In between, a long decline to ~$10 at the 2016 low, a second low near ~$10 in March 2020, then a recovery into the $30s–$40s. The 2025 breakout above the ceiling is the first sustained move above it in the chart's history, taking the ETF to roughly double that level.]

For the uninitiated, Global X Copper Miners ETF tracks the Solactive Global Copper Miners Total Return Index, providing diversified exposure to the global copper mining industry through a market-cap-weighted portfolio of producers. Its assets under management (AUM) stands at approximately $22.7 billion, it has an expense ratio of 0.65%, and a dividend yield of approximately 2.02%. The ETF has more than doubled from its 52-week low of $51.52, driven by a confluence of forces that were precisely what our original thesis focused on: AI infrastructure power demand requiring copper at scale, the electrification buildout, and supply deficits from years of underinvestment.

Added to that, the Hormuz crisis has caused a re-think about accelerating the transition to domestic energy sources, focusing attention on the infrastructure challenges that entails. Near the top of the hurdle list is improving the U.S. electrical grid's resiliency; doing so requires immense amounts of copper.

Why We're Still Believers

The thesis that got us into COPX at $46.67 was correct. The AI infrastructure buildout is copper-intensive since data centers require copper in wiring, cooling systems, and power distribution at multiples of conventional construction. The electrification wave is copper-intensive and so is the reshoring manufacturing buildout. Those major tailwinds have not changed.

The supply side has also delivered, as years of underinvestment in new mine development has left the industry producing below what the demand trajectory requires, and new projects take a decade to bring online. Basically, the structural deficit is real and doesn't appear to be going away any time soon.

What has changed, in a big way, is the price.

COPX has doubled in 12 months. One signal we've been watching is that there has been $331 million in outflows over the past month and $306 million over three months. This means institutional money has been selling into the strength, not adding to it. When smart money exits at the highs while retail and momentum players push the last 10% of a 100% move, history suggests patience is appropriate for those still holding. We realize an argument could be made that these outflows are primarily from retail investors. However, we believe COPX has been a convenient and heavily used vehicle for professional money managers and investment advisors to play the copper story.

The Bottom Line

Haymakers who entered at $46.67 and held through the May 15th first trim recommendation have captured approximately 90% in the core position. Reducing by another 25% to 33% at current levels locks in a portion of those gains while maintaining exposure to the structural copper thesis through what could be a meaningful further leg if a breakout above $99 takes hold. The remaining position continues to benefit from the AI demand, electrification, and supply deficit thesis.

We are recommending trimming COPX again at current levels, but staying in the trade.

The Haymaker Team

[IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES — abbreviated. Informational and educational purposes only; not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. David Hay is a passive owner of Evergreen Gavekal, a registered investment adviser, with no involvement in its day-to-day operations, research or investment management as of 03/31/2025; the views here are his personal views and may differ materially from Evergreen's strategies. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of any security or strategy discussed.]