Title: Don Durrett: Gold Miners 'The Most Asymmetric Upside' & The Point of No Return for Gold Show: Palisades Gold Radio (host: Palisades Gold Radio interviewer) Guest: Don Durrett — financial analyst, author, founder of GoldStockData.com Date: 2026-09-05 URL: https://youtu.be/O4uVG0AqiU0 Length: 53:18 Note: YouTube auto-transcript pasted by Stephen. Fillers (um/uh) and stutters removed; wording otherwise verbatim. Sponsor reads for Palisades Gold Corp (08:20-09:30) and Made in America Gold Corp (19:21-20:28) kept verbatim but carry no analysis. Caption mis-hearings corrected in place: Don Dret -> Don Durrett, goldtockdata.com/goldstock data.com -> GoldStockData.com, pelisads/Bellisades/Lisa/pelisad.ca/pelisades.ca -> Palisades/palisades.ca, P AI -> PALI, new found gold -> New Found Gold, expiration -> exploration, Bon Mises -> Von Mises, Bernani -> Bernanke, Ray Dallio -> Ray Dalio, Bent -> Bessent, Gunlock -> Gundlach, Stanley Duck Miller -> Stanley Druckenmiller, Michael Bur/Burley -> Michael Burry, Knicks run -> next run, fatal complement -> fait accompli, wayne/waning -> wane, pneumont/new bond -> Newmont, agle eagle/ag -> Agnico Eagle, Vizla -> Vizsla, Andy and Silver -> Andean Silver, beggar/beggger -> bagger, Lowhanging Fruit -> Low-Hanging Fruit, hunter bagger -> hundred-bagger, mind's -> mine's, Dond -> Don, Cedar Plus -> SEDAR+, "I went from 35 to 120" -> "it went", mood -> mode 48:36, rugpool -> rugpull, "by by dips" -> "buy dips". Left as heard: "the second leg is when the metals outperform gold" (07:49; context = the miners outperform the metal); "reserves now is more gold than silver" (15:07; likely "more gold than treasuries"); "China ... at 650 billion. They were at 1.3 ... China's above still above 1 trillion" (15:07; likely China then Japan); "$40 trillion deficit" (18:56; context = debt); "floor in silver is probably 5860" (22:12; ~$58-60); "Brussels" (17:11; Belgium/Euroclear custody); host name "Sen" 51:05 left unresolved.
00:00 So, right now I believe that we are already in a doom loop, but I'm early, right? What I'm saying and when you get to stage seven, that's when everybody says we're in a doom loop. Now, what is a doom loop? A doom loop means there's no way out. It's just going to blow up. You better run for the hills.
00:18 And this is the reason why gold is doing so well. And this is the reason why gold is going to go higher. The fundamentals have never been better. I've never been more bullish. Don Durrett, financial analyst, author and founder of GoldStockData.com. It is a true pleasure to host you on Palisades Gold Radio today. >> Yeah. Great to be back.
00:39 I'm looking forward to it. >> Certainly great to have you back on, Don. Now, right as the US fiscal debt surpassed $40 trillion, gold seems to have broken out of a six-month consolidation earlier in August. And I'm very curious to hear what your thoughts on are on gold first. How are the fundamental drivers balancing currently for gold, both bullish and bearish, and how much further can this bull market take us? >> Well, we need to think in terms more holistically.
01:12 I'm not a trader, so I don't really think in terms of months or quarters. So, we kind of have to back up a little bit kind of where we've come from and where we're going. And I think that's really the better way to look at this. So, this kind of started I think in January of December of 2019 is when this really this gold that what we're in right now kind of started.
01:35 That was prior to COVID. Interestingly, if you go back and look at the chart, some people think that it started in 2016, but that was kind of the bottom. So, we bottomed in 2016, but I don't think we turned around and broke out, right? We didn't immediately go into a bull market.
01:51 That's the way I look at it. But if you look at after we bottomed in 2016, so we went down from 2011 all the way to 2016 like a 5-year down. Then we based from 2016 to 2019. And then if you look at the chart, I think 2019 December 2019, we can call it January 2020 is kind of I think that was the beginning of the bull market, but we didn't really kind of really take off until February 24.
02:22 February 24 is really when we're at $2,000 gold and we just absolutely ripped to 5,600 over the next two years. And so it kind of started 2020 but 24 was really when it kicked into gear. And but we had to wait 18 months before silver joined the party in August of 2025. Silver just, you know, stayed below $35 even though gold was trending and so then we had that first leg.
02:58 So really when it really kicked into gear, silver had to join the party before gold, this gold bull market, gold was trending, the miners were underperforming the metal. And then in August, we basically got this first leg, which is what really got people's attention and silver went from $35 to $120 over a six-month period.
03:25 And the HUI broke out as well. And then gold. Now during that breakout, that was leg one. And that stopped in January this year. During that leg, this is really important because the metals were ripping in such a rapid manner, the miners never had a chance to outperform the metal. And this is important because if the miners aren't outperforming the metal, it really doesn't get Wall Street's attention and it doesn't get investors attention per se.
03:59 So that first leg was kind of nobody kind of joined the party. So the free cash flow multiples stayed low. The stocks traded low. The stocks were undervalued. So that was typical in a first move. So that was kind of our first move that leg. And then we had this correction, right? So that's what we're getting to today.
04:22 We had a six-month correction from basically the beginning of February till the end of July. And that correction appears to be over. It looks like we have bottomed there. Now the question is when you bottom so we hit that bottom in I think it was July it could have been June we're around 3950 in gold around 54 in silver that when you bottom this is like when I was saying earlier about 2015 2016 you just don't turn around and just immediately go back up you basically have a
04:59 little bit of struggle before that second leg begins and this is what I've been saying I've basically been telling people to get ready for another correction because you generally don't just turn around and just, you know, rip back to 5,600 dollar gold or back to 120. It doesn't go back up in a straight line.
05:23 And so I'm expecting a correction here down and I've been saying this that we'll go back to 4,200 before we go to 5,000. And so this next correction is kind of coming here I think sometime before the midterms which is first week of November or shortly after the if we don't get a correction before the midterms and I think we will but if we don't get one before the midterms I'm expecting one after the midterms in November.
05:50 So call it mid November. By mid November, I think between now and mid November, I think you need to be very cognizant of the fact that we could go down in gold. And now the question is how low. I think it's going to go below 4,300. So you get a 42 handle somewhere in there. But it could go and that's kind of my buy zone.
06:14 4,100 to 4200 would be my first buy. Then if it goes lower, if it goes below 4,000, that's my second buy. And then if it goes below 3,900 be my next buy. I do not think we'll get now 39.50 I think is about the low. I don't think we're going to go below that, but it's possible. I do not think we'll go below 3750.
06:34 I was saying 3750 is kind of my line in the sand. Now when we do finally take off, and I think we will in Q4, I think that's when the next run will begin. And once we get above 4500, and that could happen as early as November, once we get above 4500, I don't think we'll see it again. I think we'll go above 4500 and we will trend all the way to 15,000, which is kind of crazy.
07:04 So, we get these bottoms, right? You get these bottoms and when they get put in, they usually last. I mean, if you go back and you look at these breakout points at 2,000, at 3,000, I think those breakouts above 2,000, above 3,000, we're not going back to those levels. So, this is the next one. This is the 4,000 level where we get above it. We're not going back below it.
07:25 Then the next one will be above 5,000. We're not going back below it. So, we're getting ready to make this second leg. I think it's going to start sometime in November or December. Most likely November, this next leg, and it'll go all the way to 6,500, somewhere around 6,500. Then we'll have another correction, but I don't think it'll be as long as this one or as deep as this one. And then we'll get that third leg.
07:49 And the third leg is really the important one. Now, the second leg is the easiest leg because the second leg is when the metals outperform gold. We're starting to see that. We didn't see that in leg one. We're starting to see that. We saw that in July. So, that's when people come into the sector.
08:05 When the miners are outperforming the metal, that's when people get excited because that's when you get really big leverage. That's when everybody goes, "Holy crap, I want some of that." Gold went up 2%, the miners went up five. Give me some of that. And so, that's when people start coming in.
08:20 And that's the easy trade. The last trade, the leg three is a little bit more difficult because that's when you get that mania when the risk starts to go up, when the cycle starting to end. But that second wave is easy peasy. That's the fun wave. Today's episode of Palisades Gold Radio is proudly brought to you by our parent company, Palisades Gold Corp.
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09:07 Palisades shareholders directly benefit from our team's extensive industry knowledge and access to deal flow opportunities historically reserved for a small group of investors. To learn more, visit us at palisades.ca and join us in our mission to level the playing field for investors. Now, back to the show. So, the fun wave is almost about to start.
09:30 Now, I would love to talk about the fundamental drivers behind this target that you've outlined because as we've been talking over the months now, the target you've had for the end of this bull market seems to have gone up. Is that because the debasement trend is accelerating? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I've been talking about this on other podcasts, but I might as well go into it here.
09:52 So, I've been into gold and silver miners for only one reason, which is the debt bubble. It's like at a certain point the debt bubble has to pop. I'm in the Von Mises camp. Von Mises basically said if governments borrow more money to generate stimulus that creates a bubble and you either have to pay back that debt or the bubble will burst and those are the only two outcomes.
10:18 Now modern economics they don't believe that thesis. They just ignore Von Mises. They ignore the Austrian school and they basically believe that debt doesn't matter. We can just keep expanding this, expanding this. But now we're starting to realize that it's basically voodoo economics. When you live on debt, when you live on money expansion, that's dangerous and eventually it bites you.
10:43 And now I think the only reason I own gold and silver miners. I don't own gold and silver miners because it's a good investment. It's a good business. It's a terrible business. And I can go into all the reasons why, but the one thing the reason why you go into gold and silver miners is because they mine money.
10:59 These are monetary metals. So, they're basically printing money. I mean, one of the best investments you can have is to have like a 20-year mine life of a mine that's producing 500,000 ounces and you have margins of $1,000 an ounce. That's one of the best businesses you can own.
11:16 But over 20 years, eventually that mine's going to come to an end. Can't replace it and your business goes, you know, you're done. And so it's a unique business. It's basically you're printing real real money. So I got into it. It was like, okay, who benefits if the bond market fails? Now, everybody says, you know, I think it was Ben Bernanke, might have been Greenspan, but I think it was Bernanke who said that the US government will never default on its debt because we have a printing press.
11:47 Well, there's an assumption built in there. And the assumption is that we won't destroy the currency doing it, right? And trust me, you will destroy the currency if you don't have any buyers of your debt. So, there's an underlying assumption there that there will be people that will borrow your debt.
12:06 So, we have these auctions, you know, at least two auctions every month and they borrow about $150 billion every single month. And if there's no buyers, your currency's toast. Now, let's look about this is basically called, you know, kind of a debt bubble. And it's also this has happened over and over in history.
12:27 Ray Dalio talks about this. This is not new. This happens over and over again to governments. And what happens is the debt reaches a certain level and there's a point of no return. And once you get to that point, there's only one outcome. Some type of a default or some type of a reset. Now, let's just go and look because I think we reached this point of no return in August and I actually doubled my gold price after what happened in July.
12:59 In July and August what Bessent is doing this is kind of the final signal if you will that we've reached it. Okay. So the first thing is a debt bubble forms. So this is when a government basically starts taking on more debt than it reasonably should have on their balance sheet and that debt bubble starts to form, right? And that was I think that really started in the early 2000s after 911.
13:28 It started to get big. It started getting, you know, four, five, six trillion and these, you know, the president started adding, you know, 500 billion, a trillion dollars a year and it started and the debt bubble formed, if you will. And then the second thing is when that started, nobody acknowledged it as a problem.
13:47 So the phase two is when people start to acknowledge it. People start pointing at it and go, there's a debt bubble form, you know, and it starts to be acknowledged as a problem. Then the third thing that happens is it starts to reach a crisis level and that's the point of no return where you basically say well we can't pay it back now so let's just ignore it and that's what happened around 2010 we just stopped talking about it because it got too big you know we couldn't for
14:15 instance today it's $2 trillion right deficit so it's about 150 billion a month if we cut $500 billion we would take the deficit down to 1.5, which wouldn't fix anything, right? You're still at 1.5 trillion. You didn't fix anything. But if you took 500 billion in spending out, you destroy the economy.
14:40 So, we can't cut. So, basically it's reached a crisis level. So, once it reaches crisis level, at that point you start to have ramifications. That's stage four. And ramifications is when people notice the debt bubble and they start having behavior around it. And one of the behaviors that we're seeing is central banks are buying more gold and selling more treasuries.
15:07 Their reserves now is more gold than silver. Those are the ramifications. And we're seeing China for instance they're basically kind of net sellers, right? And they're basically slowly going down. They're at 650 billion. They were at 1.3 and it's going down. China's still above 1 trillion.
15:27 They're number one and they're going to start going down. Now, this is so that's the ramifications and that has begun and it's pretty obvious and everything's fine in those first four stages. The first four stages we're still in denial, right? But once you get to stage five, it's like, okay, people, now it's getting serious, right? Stage five is when they start doing interventions. And that started in July.
15:52 So we had the war in Iran, these countries, they didn't have enough income because they weren't selling all their oil. So they had to sell their treasuries to raise cash. And so we basically said, "Oh, well no, we don't want you to sell those. We'll give you a swap line.
16:11 " So we'll give you a swap line. All you have to do is put your treasuries up as collateral and we'll just give you some cash. Right? So, and [laughter] then you can pay us back later when you get your income. But don't sell those treasuries. Right? That was intervention number one. Intervention number two just happened in Japan.
16:29 Japan's like, "Okay, we got to sell some treasuries to support our yen." Right? And Bessent go, "Oh, wait, whoa, whoa. Stop selling those treasuries. We'll give you a swap line." Right? So, this is intervention. And so, the question comes, why do we have to intervene? Because the bond market has basically started to become fragile.
16:50 So that's the intervention. Now that's phase five which has already started and phase six is kind of the last nail in the coffin and that is when you start to get in the investors confidence begins to wane and that's actually already starting to happen where people don't want to buy the long end.
17:11 You have Jeffrey Gundlach who's basically the bond king. He said don't be buying any tens, 20s or 30s. Right? So Gundlach is like early innings confidence waning. And so that's begun. And the key for the confidence waning is like when one country just sells all their bonds like Brussels who's got a bunch of them like okay let's just dump our bonds or Japan.
17:38 That will be that waning. That's the period we're in right now. That's going to pick up speed. And then once that waning gets to a certain level, you'll get to the final stage, stage seven. And stage seven is when everybody acknowledges that the doom loop is real and it's not going away. So right now, I believe that we are already in a doom loop, but I'm early, right? Ray Dalio probably believes it, too.
18:05 And so what I'm saying, and when you get to stage seven, that's when everybody says we're in a doom loop. Now, what is a doom loop? A doom loop means there's no way out. It's just going to blow up. You better run for the hills. And so we are approaching we're in six right now. The waning is begun. We're approaching seven.
18:25 And I think we'll get there next year in 27. All we're going to need is a recession. And this is the reason why gold is doing so well. And this is the reason why gold is going to go higher. The fundamentals have never been better. I've never been more bullish. What happened with once this intervention started it was like you know it was always a fait accompli was always going to happen but now we're kind of going down that road and the other thing that you can really tell that we're kind
18:56 of in that stage five area is when the US government and the Treasury basically start you know throwing these big whoppers out like Bessent said that we're going to grow our way out well that's laughable right we got a $40 trillion deficit. We can't grow our way out. All we can do is expand that debt more and maintain it and pray that we can handle 50 60 70 trillion in debt.
19:21 That's all we can do. We can't grow our way out of it. That's a joke, right? That's Trump hyperbole. You know, now he's jumping on the Trump train. With gold trading at new all-time highs, gold producers are printing money. And this means that for the first time in years, money is beginning to flow into exploration.
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20:28 Now as we progress towards that stage seven that doom loop recognition will we see further intervention from the United States government and treasury for example yield curve control or you know capital controls and does gold even require those mechanics to do well in this environment. >> That's excellent way to connect the dots.
20:52 When intervention started in July, August, it started. That doesn't mean it's going to stop. No, I agree with you completely. We're going to see more swap lines. We're going to see more yield control. Absolutely. That's all intervention. What Bessent did on the 30-year end, I didn't even mention that where he went out there and he basically bought the 30s.
21:13 It's like what's going on here, people? Stanley Druckenmiller called him out on it. That's intervention. And so yeah, intervention is going to continue and it's going to lead to investor waning of confidence. And this is what happens in a debt bubble. This is normal. This is gold's the winner here.
21:34 The question is how high the only question here is how high gold goes. This is the most asymmetrical play and Wall Street hasn't even figured it out yet. This is basically the mortgage back security on steroids. The mortgage back securities. Only a few people kind of figured it out that it was a fait accompli to blow up.
21:51 Michael Burry called it a certainty, right? He could see it, right? And right now people can't really see that gold's going higher. Now, it's unbelievably asymmetrical. And that was kind of what Burry saw. It's kind of an asymmetrical bet. You're going to let me have all these options at these pennies on the dollar and they're going to be worth, you know, a bunch of money. Very asymmetrical.
22:12 This is very asymmetrical as well because I think the floor in gold is 3750. I just don't think you can get gold below 3750. And I think the floor in silver is probably 5860. You can't get it below those levels. Those are the floors, right? Look at the ceiling. The ceiling for gold I think is around 15,000 and the ceiling for silver is around a thousand.
22:38 So unbelievable asymmetry going on here. I mean the leverage in the miners is unbelievable and if I'm right and it seems just getting better and better and nobody even noticed this until July. So if you go and you look at the HUI, which is gold miners index versus gold, it basically was flatlined until July and then in July it finally the miners finally started performing better than the metal. It just started in July.
23:16 Now isn't it interesting that the intervention my phase five started in July? Is that a coincidence? I don't think so. In other words, once they started intervening in the bond market, people said, "Give me some of that. Give me some of those miners." >> I would love to dive a bit deeper into silver.
23:37 Of course, it's a monetary metal historically, but it's also become an industrial metal, which is often times talked about. From your perspective, you mentioned earlier you believe it could go the ceiling for silver might be $1,000 an ounce. Why would it continue to act like leveraged gold? And how should one think about portfolio allocation to such a volatile but high potential metal? >> Yes.
24:01 The one thing about silver is gold is money period. That's what gold is. I use it for jewelry as well, but you hold it as jewelry, you still basically hold it as money. Silver is always going to be a commodity. It's never going to be more than 50% of the sales is going to go to investors. It's about 30% somewhere around 30% of investors 70% commodity.
24:24 So it's a commodity. The majority of silver sales is going to be as a commodity. You know, everything electronic is going to have silver in it. And just think about everything, you know, cars, phones, you know, appliances. So we mine about a billion ounces and 700 million of those are for stuff for Divi, you know, products.
24:47 So, silver's not going to be a monetary metal, but what it's going to benefit from is that 30% is going to come along for the ride. And this is how it always works. So, this is the reason why silver is very volatile because of that commodity aspect.
25:05 But it also the reason why silver tends to outperform gold because when people finally do use it as a monetary metal, it's kind of a wakeup effect and then it blasts higher. That's why it went from 35 to 120 in 6 months. Now, silver, it is a lot. Most people can't afford to buy an ounce of gold. Most people don't have $4,000 in cash, but they do have $500.
25:34 So, instead of buying gold, they buy silver because it's basically a proxy for gold. And it's a really good proxy for gold because it's easy to stack. I mean, it's really easy to buy an ounce of silver, right? You can stack an ounce of silver easily. You can't stack an ounce of gold, the average person.
25:49 So, it's a proxy for gold. But I don't stack gold. I stack silver. And the reason why is because I feel like I'm getting 2x on my money. At least 2x, maybe 3x, but at least 2x. I really firmly believe silver will outperform gold by, you know, 2x. And it already has, but this from here forward 2x. Historically, you know, you've been getting better on your money.
26:15 So, until we get to that point where I'm not getting 2x on my money, and that's going to take a while. You might as well stack silver instead of gold. And that's the way I've always looked at it, but I'm taking the risk because it's highly, highly volatile as well. I mean, silver could go up to $300 and turn around and go all the way back to 100.
26:37 Gold won't do that because gold's just is basically money. Now the one thing that as [clears throat] far as value in it, I always like to talk about this. So let's say that I like to use percentages, which the SGR instead of the GSR, the silver to gold ratio. I kind of learned this from Michael Oliver. That's what he likes. And from a mathematical standpoint, it's a lot easier to do because you get a percentage.
27:04 So right now we're right around $4,500 $4,400. So 1% is $44. So 1% is just the very low end. You're going to get at least 1% of you know of gold, but chances are you're going to also get at least 2%. So that would be $88. So silver should be at 88. It should be at least 2% in my opinion.
27:29 That's I think 2%'s the floor. I think going forward I think once we get above 2% I think we'll stay there. So I think we can use 2% as a floor and you could probably use kind of 4% as a ceiling and it's probably going to be somewhere in between that. So it'd be right now silver if you use 4% would be what about $170 silver.
27:52 And so but as gold goes higher so do those ratios. So, if we go to I think $8,000 gold I think is a very conservative number for the next three years. I think it's a conservative number. So, if we use 2% it's 160. We use 3% it's 240 and then if we use 4% it's 480 something like that. And so that's where Oliver comes in.
28:19 He thinks we could go all the way to 500 which would be a little over 4%. I think that's kind of the ceiling, right? About 4%, but I think 2% I think is the floor. 4% is the ceiling. And I think 3% is really a kind of a good target. So, you know, right around 200, 250 somewhere in there. I think we'll see those levels.
28:42 So, if you're stacking silver here at 66 and you know, we go to 200, you're not going to do too badly. 200% return, that's not a bad return, right? And you're probably going to hold your value. So, silver still makes sense to stack here.
29:01 Especially if you're saving money in cash. So, you can save in cash or you can save in gold or you can save in silver. And like right now, everybody's saving in cash, but that's going to turn and people are going to start saving in silver and gold. I really firmly believe that. I also firmly believe that the people that are going to save in gold and silver haven't started yet.
29:22 They haven't even started. And most of the people don't even know they're going to save in gold and silver. Hasn't even crossed their mind yet. I think it's a very interesting point you're making. Of course, significant rerating potential for silver compared to gold. But if you look at gold or gold miners for that matter, there seems to be a significant rerating potential compared to other financial assets as people go into the sector like central banks have done for gold the last couple of years.
29:52 That's what I mentioned earlier about the asymmetry. The asymmetry means, you know, gold's going to go a lot higher than it's currently at. And if it does, the miners take on just massive leverage. I've kind of done the math here. I mean, if we look at the ETFs, which I think a lot of people are going to use, I think the ETFs will double in this next run.
30:20 So, the first run, the ETFs went up over 150%. 150% in that first move. Right now, they've given a lot of it back. But they're still up over 100% year-on-year. The second leg, I think next year they'll go up another 100%. And if they do that, if you would have been in early, if you do 100%, you do another 100%, that's a 300% return.
30:48 It's not 200%, you get compounding, it goes 300%. And then I think it will double again. If we look at you know for instance like if we use the SILJ right it's right around 30 I think right now. So we're probably going to go in around 60 somewhere in that area which would double and then leg three would double again to 120.
31:14 And I think those are conservative numbers. I think GDX will basically do that and SILJ should outperform that. And so if you would have been in at the beginning, you would have got a seven-bagger. And that's kind of the base. So the base is, you know, we double, we've already doubled once, we double again, we double again, we get 700% return.
31:36 That's some serious leverage. But from here, you still got 300%. That's pretty big move. And that's going to happen in two years. That's my expectation. It all depends on what gold and silver do. If they don't do nothing, the miners will do nothing. We're betting on gold and silver going higher, but I think that's the outcome.
31:52 Now, I call that the base. In other words, we're going to get that double and double again in Newmont, which is in Agnico Eagle. Those are kind of the biggest miners. So, the other miners are going to do even better. So, that gives you how much leverage these have. But, I think there's a possibility we could get leg four and they could double again.
32:16 So we're looking at potentially it depends what gold and silver do 5, 6, 7-bagger in Newmont in this and that's the kind of leverage we're looking at. Now I don't know if we're going to do it but if gold gets to $8,000 and I think it could easily get to those levels if you do the math.
32:37 It all depends what multiple we give Newmont. But I think if you get those gold price levels, I think that the multiples will blow out and I think you're going to get a mania phase because the margins are going to be high. People are going to be chasing the margins and I think the multiples are going to go high.
32:55 So, I'm only looking at a multiple of Newmont to be a three-bagger 7,000 at about a 25 multiple and it wouldn't shock me if it gets to a 30 or 35 that I think those numbers are absolutely in play here depending if you get a mania in leg three. So, the leverage absolutely goes nuts in these miners.
33:16 Now, the one thing you need to recognize is there's not that many of them. That's the reason why these companies have so much leverage is you only have so many choices. Like in the silver space, there's only 15 silver miners with a market cap over $100 million. 15. There's none. And there's only about 10 good ones.
33:35 In the gold mine space, it's not really that much better. You're only really looking at about 50 to 75 producers that you know, high quality that you really want to own. And so it's not a lot. There's not a lot of names. And then if you whittle it down, if you narrow it down to good locations like the US, Canada, and Australia, it shrinks even more.
34:01 And matter of fact, it's hard to find mid-tier producers in the US and Canada. They're pretty rare actually, like less than 10. And then Australia, you probably have, you know, 10 more. So, and then if you throw the majors in there, you know, 25 stocks. I mean, it's not that many in good locations. So there's not a lot of names there.
34:23 So my point is that people are going to buy the good names. They're going to push them up. They're going to have high multiples. You know, we talk about the mag seven. There's probably going to be a mag seven in the miners as well. I created a list called the Mormons, which is the 10 best silver miners. So you want to marry them all.
34:39 That's why they're called the Mormons. But in the gold space, I created one called the Elite Eight. So I'm always creating these lists, but these stocks, there's not that many of them. I would love to dive a bit deeper into this framework that you have of having a second leg higher in this bond market, a third and potentially a fourth because if we're truly looking at the bond market breaking like you outlined earlier, wouldn't this be a paradigm shift rather than a bull market? And would there necessarily be an end to
35:10 this? >> I'm turning more bullish in that regard. I thought that the risk really would I thought this would potentially be a 9-year cycle. And so I think it started in January 2020. So 9 years would be it would end in 28. And so I [snorts] historically have done these podcasts and I've warned people that once we get to the end of 2028, you need to be very careful because this thing could end.
35:41 But now I'm starting to think that this thing's going to have legs and it's going to be you said paradigm shift. That's a kind of a good way to put it because the TA guys are not expecting this thing to go beyond 28 and some of them expecting it to already expecting this thing to end because they had it earlier.
35:58 But I think this thing could easily go into the next, you know, 2030 2031 before this thing finally rolls over. The key is when they do a reset, what does that do to gold? It's either going to do two things. One of the things it will do is it will remove the driver that gold has today.
36:23 The driver that gold has today is the debt bubble. Right? So if they remove the debt bubble and it's gone with the reset, then maybe gold stops going up. It doesn't have a reason to go higher. That's one possibility. But the other possibility which I think is probably just as appropriate is that suddenly gold takes on a whole new dynamic because there isn't anything to replace the dollar.
36:47 You can't use the euro. Nobody wants to use the euro. You can't use the yuan because it's not transferable or convertible. You can't use the yen. There isn't any other currencies to use. And so gold is going to fill that void. So if gold suddenly becomes important then gold will probably just keep trending as it becomes important not because of inflation but just out of demand.
37:12 Everybody wants to get their hands on it and that's how gold goes to 15,000. So I think gold's going to 15,000. So my feeling is even if they do a reset, gold's just going to eat it right up and say thank you very much and I'm now at the head of the table kind of thing. I don't think that if they do a reset that gold goes bye-bye.
37:33 I actually think it's going to be beneficial to gold. Because there's so much debt out there right now, so much leverage in the system. And if you rugpull the US dollar and US bonds, gold has to basically benefit from that in a big way. So gold's not going to go bye-bye, if you will.
37:56 I think gold's going to benefit from the reset. >> In light of your $15,000 target for gold, this almost seems redundant to us, but of course you always frame miners as an opportunity where you can find 10-baggers or perhaps even more than that. How does that landscape look today in your eyes? Is there still an opportunity to pick up high-quality names with 10-bagger potential? I can't even wrap my head around $8,000 gold, let alone 10, 12, 15.
38:26 I only value these companies up to 7,000. Sometimes I'll go 7,500 on gold. Pretty rarely I'll look at eight and then silver I only do 200 or 250. So I haven't even tried. I mean these stocks you know when Newmont and Agnico are printing as three-baggers you can imagine it's not that difficult to find 10-baggers a matter of fact that is the only thing I've been looking for this year is 10-baggers anything that's a few quality producers if I think they have you know they have a little bit of growth I might go for a five six
39:03 seven eight bagger on a quality producer but on a developer no way it's got to be at least a 10-bagger on a developer. And so that's really what I've been looking for. And so, but the leverage on these things is unbelievable. I did a video. It's on my YouTube channel and you can put the links below. I'll send you the links.
39:27 Last week it was called Low-Hanging Fruit and I did 15 stocks that were all 15-baggers at $7,000 gold. And most of these stocks, it's a video and so I tell you the ones that are kind of, you know, have an easy path to it and then some that need to accomplish certain things. I basically do a two-minute overview of each of those 15 stocks, a 30-minute video.
39:52 And so you guys can check that out. And those stocks have like I said 15-bagger at $7,000 gold. They're even better at 8,000. Now, the one thing I want to say about, you know, the upside, the 15-bagger, if you will, is it's all predicated on gold and silver prices going higher.
40:18 And the other thing is I don't believe you can pick winners in the gold and silver miner space. I do not try to pick winners. I try to pick potential winners. In fact, I expect every stock pick that I do to disappoint because they do. They disappoint. I only expect seven out of 10 to basically satisfy my expectations and three out of 10 to disappoint.
40:43 Now, a disappoint could be maybe break even, only go up 25% or go down a lot, right? Basically, if it's a two-bagger, I would consider that a win. So, less than a two-bagger kind of thing would be a disappointment. And so I'm expecting every stock pick that I make, the odds are 30% chance it's going to be a disappointment.
41:05 So this because I'm chasing alpha here, and this is one of the reasons why I like to load up on producers because producers, you're more likely to get eight out of 10. And so you're diversifying into more quality. Developers are more six out of 10.
41:23 And so overall, seven out of 10 is kind of my expectation. So, I wanted to point that out. So many people think they can pick winners. You know, these stocks look like just slam dunks. You don't know what's going to go wrong at these mines. You just don't know. It's impossible to predict. But, like I said, I always expect mines to disappoint me.
41:46 But it helps me because I don't get emotional when a stock goes down 20% in a single day. Oh, that's one of those ones that are going to disappoint me. You know, no, and then I basically say, well, if it goes down enough and I still like the story, I'll buy more. So I don't get disappointed when a stock disappoints, if you will.
42:08 And I'm always trying to buy the dip. I remember when Vizsla had that big problem with the cartel and it crashed. As soon as it crashed, I bought it because I'm a speculator. I'm like, "Okay, as far as I was concerned on Vizsla, that mine's too big to fail in my opinion.
42:26 " So, as a speculator, I don't mind taking the risk because I own like 170 stocks. So, when they crashed, I didn't get upset. I was like, "Oh, buy an opportunity, lower my cost basis." And so that's how I look at things now. Most people, oh, you know, stock went down. Oh, no. Oh, no, no.
42:49 I remember Andean Silver went down this week. They did a raise 40 million Australian and it went down like 18%. And everybody was, you know, crying and, oh, it's down. It's down. I'm like, did the free cash flow, did the future free cash flow go down? I mean, it didn't bother me in the slightest bit. And then here, the funniest thing was the Australians a little bit more savvy.
43:13 The stock went instead of going down 18, the stock went up 6%. And the reason [laughter] it's like so some people figure it out and some people don't. I think it's round trip from that 18% drop. So people are just, you know, so very short-minded. It's like any problem and the thing sells off and for a stock to sell off 10 20 30% in a single day in the miners that's normal.
43:40 I mean you literally can go down 30% in a single day. It's not that strange. It really isn't. 10% move, 5% move. Totally normal. And so people can't handle that volatility. So with my mindset, I've been doing this for so long. I only want seven out of 10 winners anyway. So what if a few stocks are down? You got to recognize that not all of your stocks are going to be winners.
44:04 So if a stock's a disappointment, okay, it's a disappointment. Fine. My other ones aren't. And when you got that kind of leverage, it doesn't really matter. But one point I want to make about my thesis, the way that I invest, I'm kind of a buy and hold investor, but what I've learned over many many years is you have to defend your portfolio.
44:31 Now, what does that mean? And so, the way you defend your portfolio is you buy dips. So, I've been, you know, the first dip that I really learned that lesson is in 2008. 2008 was absolutely brutal brutal correction and thank goodness I basically, you know, bought that dip and it made my stocks come back faster and that was the lesson I learned you if you buy these dips your portfolio will come back faster.
45:01 So in January this year, we had this big correction all the way into June, July. I was buying the whole time. And so we got to July, my portfolio was all the way back and gold was at 4600. Silver was at I don't even think got to 60. It got to 69. And my portfolio had made a full round trip. And we still had to go to 120 and 5600.
45:24 And the reason why is because I was buying the dips. And so that's how you defend your portfolio. You buy the dips. You buy smart, sell smart. You don't buy runs. Like right now, we've had a bit of a run here where 4,400. I'm not a buyer here where the HUI is at 830. I'm not a buyer.
45:45 I usually, you know, buy the first of the month. I'm not a buyer. I'm waiting. I'm, you know, basically waiting for the next dip. And that's how you have to do it. You want to buy smart, sell smart. Don't buy runs, buy dips. That brings up a very interesting point on portfolio management. How do you ensure you don't water the weeds and cut the flowers when you have an expectation of disappointment? When a stock pulls back significantly, how do you determine whether it's a great buying opportunity or whether it's one of the disappointments that that
46:18 >> I'm lucky in that my first investment was a gold mining mutual fund and so I've only owned gold and silver miners and I have owned a few commodities over the years, not very many though and I pretty much sold them after I've gotten them like some platinum plays but mainly gold and miners and crypto is all I've done.
46:40 And so my mindset has always been as a speculator. Now, a lot of people, they come into this with their mindset as an investor, and it's really hard for them to change that mindset. So, as an investor, you're always going to try to take a little bit of profit. You know, you're up 100%, 200%, 300%.
47:03 And your mindset is, okay, I'm going to sell half of that. Well, when you sell half of that, you just gave away half of your upside. What if that stock's a 50-bagger? You just gave away a lot of money. And so, I always say you want to buy smart, sell smart. Buy low and sell towards the top, not in the middle. You don't want to sell in the middle just because you're up 500%.
47:24 I have a stock right now that I have a 35-bagger in and I haven't sold a penny of it and I'm not selling any until it's a 100-bagger. I'm riding that I'm basically taking that baby to the top and it's going to be more than that. So, even when I sell it 100-bagger, it still has got a long way to go, believe it or not, according to my numbers.
47:44 But no, I learned my lesson. Buy smart, sell smart. And so, it's hard for investors to think this way. But as a speculator, I'm trying to maximize my trade. The one thing is that I'm not an investor. I'm basically a speculator, and this is a one-time trade. So basically get in early just kind of like what Michael Burry did.
48:08 He got in early in the mortgage back securities and then wait until it pays off and you basically kind of maximize your return. And so I'm still in the buy mode. I'm still accumulating but very soon I won't be accumulating anymore. And then once I'm done accumulating somewhere around I think around 1,200 on the HUI, but any significant dip after that, I'll only buy dips from that point forward.
48:36 I'm already in that mode right now at 800 HUI, only buying dips. And then I will wait until this market gets frothy. I'm not going to wait till the very top. Once it gets frothy, we're not even close to frothy yet. And I'm basically I'll let you guys know when it gets frothy. The free cash flow multiples right now are super super cheap.
48:56 We still have companies that are trading with multiples under five. Good companies with multiples under five, which is a joke. I mean, and it's like nobody's paying attention to this sector yet. And the average is around 10, probably nine. For the miners, the producers, the free cash flow multiples, nine or 10. So they're still uber cheap.
49:15 They're going to get I don't know if we'll get to 20 as an average, but we'll get high teens before this thing's over. And so you want to be very patient, very patient with your stocks to maximize your returns. You know, the only ones that you really want to sell. Now, the one thing I always talk about is you want to sell your dogs.
49:40 Like I have 171 stocks and I posted them on my website to go, "Okay, tell me which one's a dog, guys. Tell me which one of these you would sell. I don't have a single right now. I don't have a single dog. Like I like to sell my dogs in December. Tax loss selling this December. As we speak right now, I don't have a single stock to sell.
49:59 Now, there's a couple stocks I have my eye on that could turn south between now and December. But as we speak right now, I don't have anything to sell in December. But you should have some, right? And last year, I sold a bunch of them. Probably three, four stocks. I think last year. Right now, I don't have any. So you want to purge your dogs when they And these are stocks that aren't working.
50:23 And the key here is they're not working, but the story changed. And I could name a few, but I'm not going to throw them under the bus. But basically the story changed. The reason you bought the stock is no longer in effect and it's basically underperforming and you lost confidence in it. At that point, get rid of it.
50:42 I don't care if you're down 90%. Sometimes people are down 90% they only have 10% left and like what's the point of selling? I'm just going to hold it, right? No, that 10% put that 10% to work somewhere else. Matter of fact, that 10% you can find a hundred-bagger. [laughter] >> Well, Don, it's been incredible to get your updated thoughts on gold and gold miners.
51:05 I would love for you to talk about GoldStockData.com. >> Yeah, thank you very much, Sen. So my website, it's for people that already own gold and silver miners. So if you already own them, you come to my website, you'll find a few stocks to add to your portfolio. Guarantee you that there's 870, but my search engine is really powerful.
51:26 You can find what you're looking for. But if you don't own any, don't sign up. It's not for people that don't own any mining stocks because it's a tool to basically analyze stocks and find additional stocks. So if you don't own any, then you want to read my book. So my book, it's like the 12th edition. It's 300 pages long and it's basically a textbook that teaches you how to analyze these mining stocks.
51:52 So you read the book and you go, "Oh, this looks like fun. I'm going to do this." So if you don't own any, you think, "Oh, maybe you want to own some of these silver miners, then absolutely read my book." And even if you're thinking about only doing ETFs, it's probably smart to read my book because I have a chapter on ETFs as well and physical too.
52:12 And we'll have the link below. But thanks for letting me talk about the website and the book. >> Yeah, for sure. We'll put the links in the description. Don, thank you very much for your time and insights today. I tremendously appreciate it. >> Yeah, it was great. This podcast is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
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