Title: Why Frank Giustra Heavily Invested In The Most Overlooked Resource, W/ Steven Dean
Show: David Lin (YouTube channel)
Guests: Frank Giustra (CEO, Fiore Group) and Steven Dean (Chairman & director, Oceanic Iron Ore Corp)
Host: David Lin
Date: 2026-09-07
URL: https://youtu.be/Mlw9mvlcC5s
Length: 32:48 (1968 s)
Note: Pasted auto-captions; fillers (um/uh, stutters) removed, wording otherwise verbatim. Caption fixes: "Frank Juice/Gustra" -> Giustra, "Fury Group" -> Fiore Group, "Everrand" -> Evergrande, "Riotinto" -> Rio Tinto, "Valet" -> Vale, "Fordscqus/Fordscq" -> Fortescue, "Pilra/pubra" -> Pilbara, "Unava" -> Ungava, "Simandu" -> Simandou, "plan no" -> Plan Nord, "Frenchshore" -> friend-shore, "IIA" -> AI, "Ryan Bey" -> Ryan Beedie (probable). DISCLOSURE: Giustra, Dean and Beedie together own ~60% of Oceanic Iron Ore — this is an issuer interview.

(00:00) [Cold open] The world order as we knew it has come to an end and there is a massive competition for critical minerals. This is not a typical bull cycle in metals that we're witnessing. We're seeing a structural change in the way that the world is looking for metals. This is a completely different game. >> Steel production could be flat but the percentage that is required of high-grade product is increasing.
(00:30) We talk a lot about commodities on the show, critical minerals, precious metals, energy, especially right now is popping up in the news and is very relevant to not just gas prices at the pump, but also how it affects diesel prices and our food supply. We're talking about something a little bit different today. Iron and base metals surrounding steel.
(00:52) It's probably another really critical input into everything that we have in our economy. And joining me today is none other than Frank Giustra, CEO of Fiore Group and Steven Dean, chairman and director of the Oceanic Iron Ore Company. Welcome to the show, gentlemen. Thank you for coming on the show. >> Thanks, David.
(01:13) >> Thank you for having us. >> Stephen, welcome to the show. Let's start with you. The investors care about commodities for various reasons. Why should we care about iron right now in 2026? Given that China has historically been a really big component or consumer in the iron ore story, but the Chinese property market is in free fall.
(01:37) We just had the developer of the largest developer in China, the CEO rather of the largest developer in China, Evergrande, be arrested. And so the point is with consumer demand potentially falling for iron, what is the story right now? >> [Dean] Well, I'm not sure I agree with you, David, about consumer demand falling.
(02:01) China still needs a significant amount of iron to keep up its steel demand, and the nature of its steel production is changing to higher quality product. And secondly, it's also changing from the traditional blast furnace operation which is environmentally less attractive than some of the new electric arc furnaces and other iron making methodologies, and with the changing environmental rules in China.
(02:36) Combined with the need for other supply in other parts of the developing world including places like India, Europe still needs steel etc etc, I think we're seeing a slight shift in the quality of iron ore that is required to support global steel production, and Oceanic fits perfectly in that square. >> Okay Frank, let's talk about the commodity cycle.
(03:07) Right now as we speak there is a tremendous amount of money spent on AI and the capex buildout surrounding hyperscalers, defense and reshoring as well, all of which require huge amounts of physical infrastructure at the same time. It can take a long time for permitting to happen, a decade or more perhaps, to build out a mine.
(03:27) Are we living in a world where perhaps the biggest constraint on economic growth overall isn't money or technology, it's how much time or simply how much raw materials there are to realize our infrastructure ambitions? >> [Giustra] Yeah, certainly. Well, listen, it's no secret that the world has changed.
(03:50) We're deglobalizing at the moment and the world order as we knew it has come to an end and there is a massive competition for critical minerals. We have this competition between the US and China. China has been quietly assembling its supply chain of minerals for over 25 years now.
(04:12) The US and the West is just starting to realize that this is a problem and it's trying to play catch-up. And so you've got all of these dynamics coming together, whether it's the AI infrastructure, it's the defense spending, it's all these needs for raw commodities, including iron ore. And it's become very competitive because now you have to find ways, if you're in the West, to onshore or friend-shore your mineral supply.
(04:42) And so it's a scramble. It's competitive. There are deficits in certain minerals, specifically copper. But all of these metal prices are going to remain robust during this competitive period as the world's changing. >> Okay. Just to add to that, so gold has been in a super cycle arguably, silver, copper is at new all-time highs.
(05:14) How does iron ore fit into the picture alongside other metals that investors are familiar with? Anybody can take this question. >> [Dean] I can kick it off and I'm sure Frank will add to it. Iron ore is a remarkably stable commodity, largely because some 60 to 70% of global seaborne supply comes from essentially four companies, and they're the majors, we're talking about the BHPs or Rio Tintos or Vale and more recently the Fortescues. And if you are a student of the iron ore price it has been very, very
(06:00) deliberate in its gradual escalation to levels of prices that we're seeing, and it's remarkably stable. But it is a critical mineral. It is critical for all the reasons that Frank talked about in terms of infrastructure development, whether it be connected to AI, defense or simply good old-fashioned development of developing countries such as India, Africa also to an extent.
(06:33) And so it's a very dependable, predictable commodity that Oceanic is positioned to take advantage of with its high-grade product. >> So just to follow up, Stephen, in the future, which sectors of the economy do you think will become the primary drivers of iron and steel demand? On the one hand, the bearish thesis is that population is declining in most OECD countries except for the developing countries.
(07:07) We have a population where in most places the fertility rate is below two. And so with a smaller population in the future, or at least slower growth, the argument is we could need less construction. On the other hand, like we discussed, the AI capex boom is in full swing. Estimates are $1 trillion of capex spending in hyperscalers by the end of the year and more into next year. Which is going to be a bigger force, do you think, Stephen? >> [Dean] I think there's another aspect that you're not thinking of, David, and that is that Oceanic is, as I said,
(07:42) a specialist producer in the high-grade product. And what we're talking about there is that the percentage of high-grade iron ore that goes towards high quality steel production has been small and needs to increase. The traditional suppliers out of the Pilbara in Western Australia, which is where Rio Tinto and BHP are the biggest operators, and Fortescue, and Vale, which is in Brazil, which is a higher grade more similar product to ours, increasingly is becoming more important to steel production. So steel production could be
(08:27) flat but the percentage that is required of high-grade product is increasing and that's the slot that Oceanic fits firmly in. >> Let me just pull up this one number. One more question Stephen, I'll go back to Frank here. This is from a test result dated January of this year based on optimized flotation conditions.
(08:54) The project at Hopes Advance yielded an iron ore grade of 68% iron with 2% silicon dioxide. What do these numbers mean? >> [Dean] Well, it means that it's high-grade. It's not a product which is in the 50s, which is what you typically get, 50% iron, which you generally get out of the Pilbara in Western Australia, and it has a silicon level which is conducive to steel making in that process.
(09:29) And low impurities of other things. So it's the combination of all of those things that make it particularly valuable in high-grade modern steel making. >> Frank, we're concerned about the pace of growth of the interest rates. So can commodities still stay in a bull market while interest rates climb to above 4% towards 5% for the 10-year? Or eventually does a high cost of capital slow down demand to end this cycle?
(10:02) >> [Giustra] Normally, it probably would, but not in the world we live in today. And as you're already witnessing, even with the higher rates, the 10-year's almost at 5% now, hasn't stopped the copper price, hasn't stopped the iron ore price, hasn't stopped the gold price. This is not a typical bull cycle in metals that we're witnessing.
(10:22) We're seeing a structural change in the way that the world is looking for metals and the demand and the alliances and where these metals come from. So this is a completely different game that we're witnessing now and I suspect it's going to be with us for a number of years. This is not a normal cycle.
(10:42) >> Okay. Now what about defense and rearmament? What role does iron ore, especially high-grade iron, play if globally, especially NATO countries, are starting to rearm once more? >> Go ahead. >> [Giustra] Well, anything when you're building defense. What is defense? It's missiles. It's bombs. It's planes. It's tanks.
(11:09) It's drones. It's everything that requires iron, requires steel. Okay. So if you look at the situation today, the whole world is looking at their adversaries and starting to increase their defense spending, especially the NATO countries given that America's backing off with its support to NATO.
(11:38) So NATO is going to spend a fortune in defense spending, trillions of dollars over the next number of years, and all of that requires steel. You have two major wars going on depleting weaponry, in both the Middle East and in Russia-Ukraine, that requires steel. So yeah, sadly, I'm not someone that likes to cheer on wars or defense spending, but it is a fact of life.
(12:06) And it will require a lot of steel. >> So Stephen, just on high-grade ore here, since you brought it up, how much more valuable is a ton of, let's say, 68% iron concentrate versus something in the 50s or low 60s? And do you expect that premium to continue to widen? >> [Dean] Well, there are two parts to that question, David. It's a very good point.
(12:30) The grade question is simply one of math. The premium above, say, the 62% benchmark price is a function of the extent to which the grade of the product is mathematically above the 62% benchmark. Right? So you get more iron per tonne. So there's that aspect. The other aspect is the other components of the ore, meaning silica and any deleterious impurities.
(13:11) And that's another dimension of a premium, the two parts of that being the high grade and the low impurities. [caption gap] in the market yet. But those who we talk to say it's inevitable, and logic would suggest that as well, that time will show that this product will ultimately trade at a premium because of those qualities.
(13:37) >> Well, if there's no discernible premium yet, why aren't all steel makers using high-grade iron? >> [Dean] Because the producers haven't transitioned yet their steel making plants to take advantage of that product. >> What economic advantages would the steel maker have from using a high-grade iron? >> [Dean] Well, you're processing less iron to produce steel because the grade's higher, and you've got less impurities which make the furnace less effective and efficient, and
(14:17) then if you move to the environmental factors, you've got less bad stuff going up the stack and having to be dealt with in those locations where the steel is made. And that's the trend the world is on, including China. So that's the path that iron and steel making will lead to, and it's only just begun.
(14:51) >> Well, Frank, we talked about copper before. The market has rerated copper as a strategic asset even after the government has labeled it a strategic asset, in part because of the AI capex buildout that we talked about. Do you think the market is missing a similar rerating opportunity with high-grade iron ore? >> [Giustra] Absolutely.
(15:10) I think that, as Stephen said, I think that's coming. And I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet. But here's what we do know. And the reason, listen, I'm an investor. Okay? I don't run companies. I back management teams. I back great projects. It's been my whole life. And this is the first and only iron ore deal I've ever done.
(15:29) And the reason I'm doing it is very simple. This is a very large multigenerational deposit that is, as Steven has said, high-grade with low impurities. And most importantly, this is the part that people have to get their head around, it sits on tidewater. Its transportation costs are going to be far, far below any other iron ore mine or deposit that we're aware of.
(15:54) Normally, you have to build hundreds of kilometers or miles of rail to get the ore from the deposit to a port. We sit right on tidewater. That's going to save a tremendous amount of money in our capital expenditures. So we know all this. So we did a prefeasibility study back in 2019.
(16:16) Obviously, iron ore was trading lower, around $72. It's trading what, close to 100 now. And certainly as we redo the prefeasibility study, we're going to find that certain costs have gone up. But we know what we know about this deposit. Okay, now we have to jump through all the hoops to demonstrate what it's really worth on a net asset value.
(16:42) We have to do a feasibility study and trade-off studies, environmental studies, jump through all the regulatory hoops, find strategic partners, etc., etc. That is a job about execution, but the deposit is there. It's massive. It's on tidewater. And it's real. And as an example, you've got the Simandou project in West Africa, where they're spending $20 billion to build this mine because it needs a 600 km railway to get it to the coast. We don't have that problem. And
(17:19) so anybody that's spending 20 billion on a mining project tells you that there's something important about that commodity. >> Okay. Let me ask you about a recent development, relatively recent. This comes from a few weeks ago. Prime Minister Carney announces the largest clean energy investment in North American history.
(17:39) According to the Canadian government website, a package including up to 10 billion in federal funding support and investments to expand clean electricity generation and transmission in Labrador through upgrades to Churchill Falls, development of the Gull Island hydroelectric project, and enabling infrastructure needed to support critical minerals development in the Labrador Trough.
(18:01) Now, this is relatively close to the Ungava project. So this is just to pull up a map on the Oceanic Iron Ore deposit website. Now, we have a situation where the government is slightly changing its tune when it comes to infrastructure and minerals development and support. What has changed, and ultimately do you think this particular package will impact your developments in any direct way? >> [Dean] David, this package doesn't directly impact the Hopes Advance project.
(18:40) The power generation initiative that the prime minister is referring to there is much further south. But once again there are hydro development projects further to the north which are a lot closer to where Hopes Advance sits, which I think are the next cabs off the rank. And so I see this as the first step in a series of steps that will take advantage of one of Canada's great advantages.
(19:22) We have lots of water, by the way, and for all mineral development water is required. And most importantly, we have some of the cheapest energy in the world, and it's green energy, whether that be in British Columbia or Quebec. The cheapest power in the world. And it's because of our natural resources for hydro energy.
(19:46) And so I can see that being a second stage, partnering with Hopes Advance, providing cheaper energy to that project over the next decade or so once the next round of development projects by Hydro-Québec come closer to the fore. >> What happens when the world wakes up to the need for green iron ore and we don't have enough? >> [Dean] Well, the logic tells you that the value of that product increases and that's the premium that we were talking about earlier.
(20:22) >> But if the government were to say this is of strategic importance, forget the price, we need it tomorrow, what can be the solution? >> [Dean] Well, there's no instant solution. It's got to be with time, like all of these long-term cycles and directions. But there's definitely going to be capital support I would imagine to develop these projects, from multiple sources, whether it be government partnering, subsidies for port
(20:58) development. There's no port on that northern coast of Quebec, for example, and in this day and age of military independence, as Frank alluded to, part of Canada's initiative is to occupy the north. We've got a huge northern coastline, and it's largely unoccupied and undeveloped. So as part of us securing our sovereignty of that northern coastline, we've got to start developing power and energy and ports and other infrastructure in the north.
(21:30) And that's consistent, by the way, with Plan Nord, which has been a platform of the Quebec government for almost two decades. >> Frank, if you were advising the government, either Ottawa or Washington, which mineral supply chains would you secure first? >> [Giustra] Well, certainly all of the critical minerals. Copper, for sure. That is where we see the biggest supply deficits over the next 5 to 10 years, as being projected by almost everybody including the major mining companies. There are going to be huge
(22:13) supply deficits there. So I would really focus on copper. Gold, for completely different reasons that have nothing to do with industry; this is a monetary phenomenon. I'm very sad that Canada sold all its central bank gold 25 years ago, probably one of the few countries in the world that doesn't own any gold, which is ridiculous.
(22:37) So copper, gold, silver obviously as well, and the other minerals, tungsten, cobalt, you name it, and iron ore. But I think copper is the one that everyone's freaking out about. And that's why you're seeing the copper price starting to really go through the roof. >> Mhm.
(22:55) And one more question, Frank, just to follow up on what Steven said earlier. Do you think the major bull case or investment thesis for commodities like iron in the next decade would come from monetary debasement, which is the prospect of inflation deflating the fiat currency and raising all commodities, or would it come from physical underinvestment like we discussed? >> [Giustra] Well, I think both. Absolutely both.
(23:20) And so yeah, you've got obviously the falling currency, which is going to elevate everything that's priced in dollars to higher prices because the currency is being debased. But we also equally have a real supply problem, and you have a global competition with a world that's not getting along with each other.
(23:40) So everybody's trying, as I said earlier, to friend-shore or onshore all of these materials for all of these needs. I mean, you just look at, as one example, the US grid, the electrical grid. It was built and designed in the 1960s and '70s. It needs complete refurbishment. It's falling apart.
(24:01) And that's going to require somewhere between 700 billion and 1.4 trillion of investment just to upgrade the grid. What is the grid? Copper and steel. That's the grid. That's what you have to build. So you've got all of these needs right now. It's, like we said, defense, AI, everything, infrastructure, you name it.
(24:21) It requires all of these metals. So we're seeing a supply shock and we're seeing a demand shock. >> Mhm. >> On certain metals. So you've got almost a perfect storm coming together here for metals. >> Stephen, let's take a look at some of the numbers on the website here. 1.
(24:42) 4 billion tons of measured and indicated resources. Again, high-grade concentrate, $30 per ton of operating costs. No rail required like we talked about, it's next to the ocean. Now, how much of this is economically feasible, as one would say in the industry? Have you done a preliminary assessment yet? >> [Dean] Yeah, and Frank mentioned it earlier.
(25:11) This deposit, or these deposits, there's several of them, this is a multi-billion ton deposit that's been known about since the 60s and 70s. That's when it was originally discovered. And it's been studied since then heavily. We know more about the metallurgy.
(25:33) We know more about the process flowsheet. We know more about the logistics, the mining, the geology than many projects because it's been studied for a long time. And the most recent study was in 2019 when we did a PFS, as Frank mentioned, and these numbers are quoted from that study.
(26:02) Now we need to update it because, as we all know, the world has changed significantly since 2019. So that's one of the next steps that we're taking, to undertake updated engineering studies which will generate updated capital estimates and operating cost estimates to 2026. And that's one of the pieces that we're working on right now.
(26:33) >> Do we have a rough timeline as to when we can expect construction? >> [Dean] Construction is a step that is yet to be put in a time frame, because the first step of course, as I mentioned, is to update the engineering work. But the other piece to that is the environmental permitting side.
(27:03) If the government is true to their word that they are going to support fast-tracking, provincially and federally, the permitting of these critical mineral projects, then we could see construction starting in a few years' time. But the first step is update the engineering. Parallel to that we're doing a bunch of environmental updating as well.
(27:32) And then the permitting process. So that's the time frame. >> All right. Excellent. Final question to Frank. Steven just talked about the next milestones to watch for and the next company highlights and targets. What would convince you? You're a shareholder currently. What would convince you to put even more capital, either from a company level perspective or a macroeconomic perspective? >> More capital into >> into this company? >> [Giustra] Well, I already have put in a lot of capital into this company, and as I do
(28:03) with all my investments, when there's need, I will step up to the plate if I believe there's a long-term play here. And certainly this one, like I said, we've been sitting on this for over 15 years, continuing to accumulate shares during the quiet times when commodity prices were weaker the last sort of 10 years or so.
(28:26) So I like to look at these transactions as being 3 to 7 years of hard work to get something up and running where it's commercially viable and it makes money, goes into production, or it gets acquired, whatever the endgame can be. All I know about this deposit is that once we get it in production, it'll be benefiting our children, our grandchildren, our great-grandchildren, because this is a very long life deposit.
(28:55) This is a massive multigenerational deposit. So the trick is to figure out the economics now, get all the permitting and the environmentals done, and then start to put together the capital cost needs that will put it into production. >> All right. Well, thank you very much. Sorry, >> David.
(29:14) Sorry, I just want to add to Frank's answer to that if I may. And that is, I think, >> one of the things that your viewers might be interested in is that between Frank and my business partner Ryan Beedie [captioned "Ryan Bey"] and myself, we own around 60%. And with the partners that we have in our other relationships,
(29:40) we've raised already not an insignificant sum of $50 million to progress some of these studies. But if you have a look at what we've done in the past, you'll see that when we need capital, the beauty of this structural relationship and partnership in the ownership of this business is that we have access to capital as and when required.
(30:06) That is a strategic advantage and a differentiator for us in Oceanic, and I believe it will continue to be. So we're not capital constrained so much as we've just got to fast-track some of this engineering. We've got to fast-track some of this permitting and get the government to honor their promises to do that.
(30:23) And then this theoretical value of what we have here in this asset will become real as we develop it and then get it into cash flow. >> Mhm. I guess one final question for either of you. Under what condition would you be incentivized to sell the company? You want that one, Stephen? >> [Dean] I think it's like everything else in life.
(30:50) David, listen, if someone offers you a silly amount of money to buy your company, you have to consider it. But you don't make that your daily job to look for that. Your daily job right now is to advance this project, to prove that it has robust economics, to jump through all the hoops that we need to jump through to get this to a production decision. That's the job.
(31:17) Now, if in the meantime somebody comes in and offers you a stupid amount of money, you would obviously have to consider it. >> Okay. >> I guess we're still at a fraction of our underlying value. And even if you make it comparable to other developers in the mineral sector, we're trading at a fraction of what is a typical value multiple for a developer company.
(31:46) And I think the next step that you should look for, David, is sometime in the next 12 months or so you'll see us potentially starting to bring on new partners who will partner with us strategically for offtake and for investment in the capital of the project. >> Just run out of time, but thank you very much to both of you.
(32:05) I'll put the link down below so people can look up Oceanic Iron Ore and do more research there. And of course, I'll put the social media for Frank as well, so people can follow Frank Giustra. Stephen, is there someplace we can follow you? >> Just on the website. I'm a simple man. >> We'll put [laughter] simple doesn't mean boring.
(32:27) We've learned that. We'll put the links down below. Thank you very much, Stephen. It was a pleasure to meet you. And Frank, welcome back. Take care for now. >> Thanks. Thanks, David. >> Thanks. >> Thank you for watching. Please do like, subscribe, Oceanic Iron Ore link down below.