2:24 1. Research the major de-risking the junior, not the junior
The repeatable method
- For a junior with unproven technology, find which large, well-capitalized company is doing its engineering study or will operate the asset.
- Read the major's own disclosures (website, executive interviews) on whether the technology already works at commercial scale.
- If the major is running the study and the plant, the junior's execution risk is largely the major's — price the junior against that, not against its own balance sheet.
Here: SLB (
SLB) runs a DLE facility in Nevada, partners with
RIO and TechMet, and is completing
LBNK.V's feasibility study and will operate its plant (
2:52) — "the research is not with Lithium Bank, it's with Schlumberger."
Watch for
- Publication of the feasibility study (flagged for early next year); an operating agreement naming the major; the major's own capital committed.
4:17 2. Buy the page-16 story headed to page one
The repeatable method
- Test awareness: ask specialists in the sector whether they know of the development. If deep researchers don't, it isn't priced.
- Confirm the results already exist (a working facility, not a promise), so the bet is on recognition and execution, not discovery.
- Name the headlines you expect in 3–12 months; position before them.
Here: lithium researchers he called were unfamiliar with SLB's DLE partners (
1:55); he expects "Schlumberger succeeds with Rio Tinto…" headlines within a year, the way fracking went from doubted to dominant.
Watch for
- Mainstream coverage of commercial DLE; generalist analysts initiating on DLE juniors — the signal the edge is gone.
5:42 3. Pair a compounding-demand commodity with a bust in sentiment
The repeatable method
- Estimate demand growth (CAGR) and convert with the rule of 72 to a doubling time.
- Check the substitution threat's realistic share (not zero, but capped).
- Look for a recent period of "no bid" pricing — a cycle low while the demand curve keeps compounding sets up the multi-year window.
Here: lithium 20%+ CAGR → doubling in ~3.5–4 years; batteries 1.8 → ~5 TWh; sodium-ion ~10% of batteries; 18 months ago lithium was "taken out behind the barn and shot" (
7:15) → a 2027–29 story.
Watch for
- Battery-deployment forecasts (TWh); sodium-ion share creeping past ~10%; lithium carbonate price off its lows.
9:05 4. Check a "record" commodity price in real terms before calling a top
The repeatable method
- Deflate the nominal record by the dollar's lost purchasing power since the prior peak.
- If the real price is below the old real high, don't treat the nominal record as a ceiling.
- Then ask where the easy upside has already gone (e.g. developers that have re-rated) and look for the names that haven't moved.
Here: copper's all-time high "is not really" one after dollar debasement; developer 10-baggers are gone, so he points to
LMCU trading below its IPO price with a silver stream that could equal its market cap (
10:36).
Watch for
- A stream or spin-out announcement at Lumina; the stock re-taking its C$12.50 IPO price.
15:33 5. Size silver targets off gold with a ratio
The repeatable method
- Form a gold view first; silver follows.
- Apply a ~50:1 gold/silver ratio (range 50–60, not 100) to translate a gold target into a silver target.
- Expect spikes driven by momentum "tourists" to overshoot and retrace; the next leg tends to form a higher, steadier plateau.
Here: gold $8,000 at ~50:1 → silver $150–200 (
17:06); his earlier triple-digit call was "not a difficult call because gold already moved."
Watch for
- The gold/silver ratio moving toward 50; thin order books and gap moves signalling tourist froth.
23:41 6. Account for rebalancing flows after a big run
The repeatable method
- When an asset held at a fixed weight (e.g. 10% gold) triples, disciplined portfolios must sell some — expect that selling to cap or pull back the price.
- Once weights are reset, that supply stops; look for new cohorts buying for the first time.
Here: Swiss-style 10%-gold portfolios hit ~30% and rebalanced — why he expected gold to sell off; that trade "is coming to an end" as first-time Western buyers arrive (
24:02).
Watch for
- Retail physical-gold dealer volumes; ETF inflows after a correction.
Methods distilled from the public YouTube video (Investing News Network). Not investment advice.