04:08 1. Size a developer against the "Mr. Miyagi" thresholds
The repeatable method
- Ask whether the deposit is small enough for the company to build itself, or big enough that majors, traders and governments want it built.
- Treat the middle as the danger zone ("squashed like a grape"): too big to self-fund, too small to attract a buyer.
- For porphyry copper, ~1 billion tonnes is the line where the starter mine (the first ~20 years) can be designed and big players engage.
Here:
Mocoa went from 600Mt ("not big enough") to 1.1Bt; crossing 1Bt last November was, he says, the re-rating catalyst for CGNT.V 04:45.
Watch for
- Whether the PEA counts the full billion tonnes as mineable, not just in the ground.
11:40 2. Treat pre-study offtakes as a scarcity signal
The repeatable method
- Note when a major trader or smelter signs an offtake before the economic study exists.
- Read it as the buyer paying to secure future supply — evidence of tightness, independent of the company's own claims.
- Check the terms (share of output, tenor, any funding attached) to judge how much the buyer is paying for that option.
Here:
Trafigura took a 10-year offtake on 20% of Mocoa's future copper-moly concentrate before any PEA, the day before Colombia's inauguration 12:00.
Watch for
- More pre-PEA offtakes or strategic stakes across the copper-developer group — the "musical chairs" scramble.
13:33 3. Map the permit path with a local precedent
The repeatable method
- Find the stage at which the jurisdiction lets you file for the environmental license (here, after a PFS).
- Find the most recent comparable permit in the same country and how long it took.
- Add study time plus permit time to get a realistic construction-decision date, then discount for political risk.
Here:
PFS ~a year away, then a filing; Cordoba (CDB.V) got its Alacrán permit in about a year — hence "a construction decision under existing policy in three years" 13:33.
Watch for
- Colombia's promised acceleration of permitting; any policy reversal after the next election.
15:45 4. Check the developer is funded to its next value gate
The repeatable method
- Add cash plus in-the-money warrants.
- Compare with the company's own estimate of spend to its next major gate (here, a construction decision).
- If covered, dilution risk before that gate is low and the story becomes execution rather than financing.
Here:
~$45M cash + ~$14M warrants against a ~$50M path to a construction decision; the extra funds pay for a fifth rig and district work 15:45.
Watch for
- Whether the ~$50M estimate holds as rigs are added; the real financing question comes at build (capex vs NPV).
18:18 5. Judge financeability by capex relative to NPV, and staging
The repeatable method
- When the PEA lands, divide initial capex by NPV; very high ratios are hard to finance whatever the resource size.
- Look for a high-grade core near surface and existing infrastructure that allow a big-enough start with modest capital, then staged expansions.
Here:
He expects Mocoa's near-surface high-grade core, roads and 230 kV lines to allow a large start at "a reasonable amount of capital" and later expansions 18:42.
Watch for
- The year-end PEA's initial capex, NPV and IRR against peer developers.
Methods distilled from the public YouTube interview “+730% and the CEO Says It Hasn’t Even Started — Copper Giant’s 1.1 Billion-Tonne Bet” (Inside Mining, ITM Trading). Not investment advice.