| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | GEO Group | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Infrastructure winner — private-prison/detention operator mailed out in late 2023 at a ~$1B market cap, now ~$3.5B (more than doubled) as the red sweep pulls forward immigration enforcement. Sold half / trimmed ~75% (around 24) to bank the Trump-trade run early. | — |
| ARIS | Aris Water Solutions | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | "Eris" in the call — a ~$1.3B Permian produced-water recycler "nobody on Wall Street was looking at" when flagged Aug 25, 2024; up 40–50% on a real, growing need, beat earnings, ran from the mid-teens to ~23 — sold in the low 20s. | — |
| PPA.AT | Piraeus Port Authority (Athens: PPA) | — | Positive | New infra idea — a COSCO-controlled (67%) regulated-monopoly Greek port at the Europe/Asia/Africa crossroads, exiting its capex cycle (capex €40M→~€20M) into a capital-return cycle: ~€90M FCF on a €735M cap = a ~12% FCF yield at ~7× earnings, 5% dividend with room to a ~78% payout → potential double. 28-yr concession to 2052; >25% of the cap is cash. | — |
| OCI.AS | OCI N.V. (Amsterdam: OCI) | — | Positive | New idea (sharing later in the month) — the Dutch nitrogen-fertilizer group sold ~$11B of assets and declared a €14.5 dividend on a €24 stock; net of the payout it trades ~€10.80 at a negative ~€700M enterprise value (>€3B cash vs ~€2.5B cap). Re-rates 30–40% if management avoids a bad acquisition (or pays another special dividend); risk = a dumb deal or a Dutch withholding tax. | — |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | The fixed-to-float preferred archetype — its prefs reset from ~7% fixed to SOFR+4/5 (≈9% if SOFR ~4%). With agency-MBS spreads back near post-COVID wides (~140 bps; a US-government-backed bond at 6.4% beats CAT IG at 4.7%), keep holding/adding the agency-MBS prefs and a little of the higher-quality commons despite rate volatility. | — |
| CTBB | QVC/Qurate 6.375% Senior Secured Notes | — · FA | Positive | A baby-bond income add — bought when yielding ~15%; the kind of small (~$200–300M) 8–9%+ high-coupon, short-maturity issue at the core of the book, yielding ~400 bps above where 81% of the world's bonds trade. | — |
| CTDD | QVC/Qurate 6.25% Senior Secured Notes | — · FA | Positive | Companion baby bond to CTBB, also bought near a ~15% yield — high-coupon income with low rate sensitivity (resists a duration selloff far better than a low-coupon IG long bond). | — |
| PETS | PetMed Express | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | A recent micro-cap Discord recommendation cited as the kind of small name set up to win — small caps trade at a ~30% discount to large caps, and a Trump "deregulation + US-companies-favored" backdrop favors them. | — |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | QT · SA · STK | Positive | Buy gold on the dips — a medium-term hedge as US debt heads to ~$50T (~150% of GDP) and central banks diversify from the dollar. Has not trimmed gold; would add physical or GLD on any tariff-driven FX selloff, especially if 2025 brings tax cuts without cost cuts. | — |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Long-term winner from Europe replacing Russian energy with cheaper US LNG (e.g. Hungary building import capacity) — a structural US energy-export tailwind that also supports the dollar/reserve-currency status. | — |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | A small vol trade — sold the 10-strike puts at ~300 vol (already profitable). Reads the E&Y resignation/delisting fear as overblown (likely minor early-revenue booking, ~$27M last time vs billions, not WorldCom/Enron); 75% cooling-rack share, ~$1.7M/rack, generates ~$300M cash, repaid the BofA loan. Not buying the common — institutions can't until a 10-K/relisting. | — |
| MCO | Moody's | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | The cautionary "good company, wrong price" backdrop — a 20-year compounder doing ~$12 of EPS, but at $477 it trades at ~40× earnings, the highest multiple in its history. Used to argue investors must hunt smaller/cheaper names instead. | — |
| CPRI | Capri Holdings | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Busted-deal arb (never a big position) — the $57 Tapestry deal Khan blocked had no real antitrust basis (handbag-market HHI >5,000). At ~$19 he sees a renegotiated ~$40 deal (still a double) once Khan exits and rationality returns, likely after February. | — |
| TPR | Tapestry | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | The Capri acquirer — with Khan likely gone, he thinks the smart move is to wait until February and renegotiate Capri cheaper (~$40) or do a buyback, rather than pay the original $57. | — |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Leader of the bank rally (Basel III rollback + steeper curve) to all-time highs and its first major sell-side downgrade at ~2.5× book ("not normal" to be near 3× book). Also the duration warning: its low-coupon 2030–31 bonds will sell off in price despite the credit being money-good. | — |
| CAT | Caterpillar | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | The IG-spread punching bag — a slowing global cyclical whose bonds yield only ~4.7–5.5% (Aug-'26s at 4.75%), proof that tight spreads underprice risk vs the house's 8–9% baby bonds. | — |
| EL | Estée Lauder | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Down ~70% from the peak (~$140–150 to ~$60) at ~15× EBIT on depressed EBITDA; a possible 2025 buy with a couple of bad quarters left. Would add nearer ~12× EBITDA / under ~$50 — wants a discount to the S&P, not a premium. | — |
| CVNA | Carvana | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | An "almost usury" subprime-auto lender (~27% APRs, gain-on-sale to hedge funds) and a Trump-deregulation winner — overvalued, but it only blows up if unemployment hits 6–7%, so a short needs a catalyst; wouldn't press it with the economy strong. | — |
| SG | Sweetgreen | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Premium fast-casual ($25 salads) that missed — a plausible short, but like CVNA/CAVA it needs a catalyst to crack with consumers still spending. | — |
| CAVA | Cava Group | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Trades at ~$60M per store vs a $1–8M norm — implying 5–6× store growth that may be unrealistic given how few US cities can sustain $20–25 bowls. Overvalued, but a short still needs a catalyst. | — |
| ROIV | Roivant Sciences | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Cheap on a sum-of-parts, but founder Vivek Ramaswamy joining the cabinet could force tax-free divestiture (à la Hank Paulson) — trim into local highs / keep selling calls, and buy back after any forced sale. | — |
| TAN | Invesco Solar ETF | QT · SA · STK | Negative | Short the solar ETF on clean-energy headwinds under Trump (subsidy/IRA rollback) — put on after the election and still falling (solar down another ~5% post-election); expects some solar names to get "completely wrecked" as demand undershoots. | — |
| TSLA | Tesla | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | "Wildly overvalued," with the market over-appreciating the Elon/Trump relationship — but he won't short it given the momentum. Tesla's scale means it needs EV subsidies less than newer names. | — |
| RIVN | Rivian Automotive | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | The clearest EV-subsidy-rollback loser — a newer EV maker (unlike Tesla's scale) disadvantaged as Trump rolls back EV incentives; part of the negative lithium/EV read favoring hybrids over pure EVs. | — |
"View" is the house's stance in this call (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating. No timestamps/video (Discord voice call), so "Ref" is "—". Sector and macro views (banks/Basel III, steel, energy/midstream, Japan, China stimulus, the Trump-trade sequencing) live in the talking points. Excluded as illustrative/benchmark/passing: AAPL · MSFT · GOOGL (low-yield IG-bond examples), NVDA · AMD · ASML (China semiconductor-export-restriction risk), GM (cutting its EV program), WING (missed), HUM (no view yet), the Khan busted-deal examples AMZN · IRBT · JBLU · SAVE, EVR (Evercore CEO cited on Khan/M&A), LYV/Ticketmaster (the "real monopoly" aside), APO/Apollo & Amundi (deck/infographic sources), COSCO (Piraeus' 67% owner). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis (PPA/OCI link via their home exchange).
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it actually is and why that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
GEO Group runs private prisons and immigration-detention centers. The house recommended it in late 2023 when it was worth about $1 billion; after Trump's win — which means tougher immigration enforcement and more detention demand — it more than tripled to about $3.5 billion.
Rather than ride it forever, they sold roughly three-quarters of the position into the rally. The lesson they draw from 2016 is that "Trump trades" tend to run hard right after the election and then give a lot back after the January inauguration, so it pays to take profits early.
Garbled as "Eris" in the call, this is Aris Water Solutions — a small (~$1.3 billion) company that collects, recycles and disposes of the huge volumes of salty water that come up when drillers pump oil in the Permian basin of west Texas. It's a real, growing need that Wall Street was ignoring.
They flagged it in late August 2024; it then jumped 40–50% as investors woke up to the demand and the company beat earnings, running from the mid-teens to about $23. They sold in the low $20s — another infra winner banked early.
Piraeus is the main port of Athens, Greece — the biggest passenger port in Europe and a major container and car hub, controlled (67%) by the giant Chinese shipping company COSCO. Ports are essentially regulated monopolies: you can't just build a new one, so the existing one has a protected, toll-like business. It's listed in Athens under the ticker PPA (note: not the same as the US "PPA" aerospace ETF).
For years the port spent heavily upgrading its piers; that spending is now ending, which means the cash it throws off is about to surge. On roughly €90 million of free cash flow against a €735 million market value — a ~12% free-cash-flow yield, about 7× earnings — it's strikingly cheap for something this safe. It already pays a 5% dividend, has lots of spare cash, and could comfortably pay much more, so the stock could roughly double as the dividend rises.
OCI is a Dutch fertilizer company (it makes nitrogen-based fertilizer). It sold off about $11 billion of its businesses at high prices and is handing the cash back to shareholders as a huge €14.5 special dividend on what was a €24 stock.
After that payout the stock is around €10.80 — and the company will still hold more cash (over €3 billion) than its entire market value (~€2.5 billion). That means you're effectively being paid to own the leftover fertilizer business (a "negative enterprise value"). The bet pays 30–40% if management is disciplined — either growing what's left, buying something cheap, or paying another dividend. The risk is they blow the cash on a bad, overpriced acquisition.
AGNC is a mortgage REIT, and it's used here as the textbook example of a "fixed-to-float" preferred share. A preferred is a bond-like stock that pays a set dividend; "fixed-to-float" means that on a certain date its rate switches from a fixed ~7% to a floating rate tied to short-term interest rates (SOFR) plus a margin — so if rates stay high, the payout jumps to around 9%.
The broader point: mortgage bonds backed by the US government yield about 6.4% right now (their spreads are unusually wide), which is a far better deal than lending to a slowing company like Caterpillar at 4.7%. So the house keeps holding and adding these mortgage-related preferreds and a bit of the common stock, accepting some price swings for the fat, partly-floating income.
CTBB (and its sibling CTDD) are "baby bonds" — small bonds that trade on the stock exchange like a share, here issued by the QVC/Qurate shopping-network group. The house bought them when they yielded about 15%.
They're the core of the income book: small (~$200–300 million) issues that big funds can't be bothered with, paying 8–15% with short maturities. Because the coupons are so high and they mature soon, their prices barely move when interest rates rise — unlike low-coupon, long-dated "safe" bonds, which can fall a lot.
PetMed Express ("1-800-PetMeds") is a tiny online seller of pet medications — a recent micro-cap pick shared in the Discord. It's cited as an example of the kind of small name set up to do well.
Small-company stocks trade about 30% cheaper than big ones right now, and a Trump backdrop of lighter regulation and a preference for US-based companies should favor them — so the house leans into small and micro caps.
GLD is the simplest way to own gold in a brokerage account (each share tracks the gold price). The house wants to buy more gold on dips, not sell it.
The reasoning is long-term: US government debt is heading toward roughly $50 trillion, and even aggressive cost-cutting is unlikely to reverse the rising debt burden. As that plays out, foreign central banks keep buying gold as an alternative to the US dollar — so gold is a useful hedge. They'd add on any pullback caused by a temporarily strong dollar.
Cheniere is the largest US exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — natural gas chilled to a liquid so it can be shipped overseas. As Europe replaces Russian energy with cheaper American gas (Hungary, for example, is building import capacity), demand for US LNG rises.
That's a multi-year tailwind for Cheniere, and a side benefit is that selling more energy abroad supports the US dollar's strength and reserve-currency status.
Super Micro builds the servers and liquid-cooling racks that house AI chips. Its stock cratered after its auditor (Ernst & Young) resigned and a delisting from the Nasdaq looked possible. Instead of buying the stock, the house made a small bet by selling put options — getting paid a rich premium in exchange for agreeing to buy the stock at $10 if it falls there.
The view is that the accounting fears are overblown (likely a minor timing issue, not a fraud like Enron or WorldCom), the company has 75% market share in cooling racks and generates about $300 million of cash, and it already repaid a big bank loan. So they pocket the option premium, keeping the position tiny because a delisting is still a real risk. It's a trade, not a long-term holding.
Moody's is the credit-rating company — a wonderful, steady business that has compounded earnings for 20 years. The catch is the price: at $477 on about $12 of earnings, it trades at 40 times earnings, the most expensive it has ever been.
It's used as the cautionary backdrop — even great companies can be bad investments at the wrong price — to argue that investors today must hunt for smaller, cheaper, overlooked names instead of paying up for the obvious winners.
Capri owns Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo. It had agreed to be bought by Tapestry (Coach's owner) for $57 a share, but regulator Lina Khan blocked the deal — which the house argues made no sense, since the luxury-handbag market is highly competitive by the standard math used to measure concentration.
This is a small "merger-arbitrage" position (a bet on a deal outcome). With the stock around $19 and Khan likely leaving, they think a renegotiated deal near $40 is plausible — still a double from here — or Tapestry buys back its own stock instead. It was never a big position because the underlying business is weak.
Estée Lauder is the big skincare, makeup and fragrance company. Its stock has collapsed about 70% from its peak (from roughly $140–150 to ~$60) as its profits fell sharply.
It's on the watch list, not a buy yet — there are probably a couple more bad quarters this year. The house would want it cheaper, around $50 or below (a discount to the overall market rather than the premium it usually commands), before stepping in, likely sometime in 2025.
Carvana sells used cars online and, crucially, lends to the buyers — often at sky-high rates (~27%) to people with weak credit, then sells those loans to hedge funds and books the gains up front. The house thinks it's overvalued and a deregulation winner under Trump.
But it's not a short here: with half its revenue from fees and lending, it only really breaks if unemployment spikes to 6–7% and those borrowers stop paying — which isn't happening while the economy is strong. So a short would need a clear catalyst first.
TAN is a basket (an ETF) of solar-energy stocks. The house is short it — betting it falls — because a Trump administration is expected to roll back clean-energy subsidies and support (the IRA), hurting solar demand.
They put the short on after the election and it kept working (solar fell another ~5%), and they expect some individual solar names to get "completely wrecked" over the next year as demand comes in below expectations.
Summary derived from the premium weekly Special Situations Report call (Discord voice space) for personal study. Not investment advice. © the source for the underlying material.