| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGM | MGM Resorts | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Merger-arb on the IAC/Peoples (Barry Diller, already ~26%) $48.30 all-cash take-private. Shares trade through the bid → market expects a topping war. Sum-of-parts (50% BetMGM, 56% MGM China, Osaka option, ~40% of the Strip) + the Caesars 49%-premium comp imply a ~$53 takeout (~6.6× 2027 EBITDA). Plan: start only below ~45. | — |
| PFE | Pfizer | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Defensive value + income: intrinsic/probability-weighted DCF ~$32 (2% terminal, 7% WACC) vs ~$26 implying zero growth. Scenario tree bull $41 / base $28 / bear $20. A 6.6% dividend, ~0.7 beta hedge against tech overexposure (S&P is ~20% semis / ~40% tech). Model in the PDF (pp. 53–54). | — |
| WBD | Warner Bros. Discovery | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Merger-arb — bought "a little" on a wide ~14% spread (the #2 most attractive large-cap spread). The EC has opened a formal review of the WBD / Paramount-Skydance deal; phase-one deadline July 7 is the next catalyst. Wide spread = real regulatory break risk priced in. | — |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | "One of the best trades in AI" — own the bottlenecked input, not the chip designers. Sole manufacturer of all seven Vera Rubin chips (3nm); "everything starts with TSMC." Morgan Stanley Taiwan checks upbeat (Rubin demand, Blackwell re-accelerating); supply relief unlikely before 2028. | — |
| MU | Micron | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Friday's −13.3% (DRAM ETF −15%, SOX −10.3%) was an overvaluation reset (SOX P/E 17→28×), not a broken memory cycle — triggered by a SemiAnalysis note halving Vera Rubin NVL72 DRAM (~55→28TB) + soft Broadcom guide. Shortages still forecast; Micron is the only US-listed HBM4 supplier for Vera Rubin. | — |
| TMHC | Taylor Morrison Home | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Berkshire (Abel; Buffett retired) all-cash $72.50 ($6.8B equity, 24% premium). Spread "super tight, 1.4%" because it's Berkshire (near-zero break risk) — noted for completeness, too thin to chase. | — |
| PRA | ProAssurance | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Merger-arb — management reiterated guidance to close by June 30, 2026 (incremental positive), but the name has been a laggard among the arb book. | — |
| SPCX | SpaceX | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | A tiny IPO "flip" — ~20 bps, PT >$150 after the $84B offer resize (~$1.8T cap, ~260× fwd EBITDA — "very excessive"; Damodaran DCF ~$97). Expect a retail pop, but likely sold into the 6-month unlock; OpenAI (~Sept) and Anthropic (~Dec) IPOs compete for demand. Pre-IPO perps (~$170 on Hyperliquid) sit above the $130 offer. | — |
"View" is the house's stance in this call (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating. Gold/silver (a buy after the selloff) and the broader AI-supply-chain / rates / fiscal / Iran macro live in the talking points. Excluded as illustrative/benchmark or non-US: Caesars (premium comp), Akzo Nobel / Universal Music / SK Hynix / Samsung (foreign), the Jensen-Huang "AI needs more software" name-dump (NOW, CDNS, CRWD, PLTR, DELL, ADBE, SHOP, IBM, MRVL…), Amkor/ASE (flagged overvalued). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it actually is and why that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)
MGM Resorts owns casinos and hotels — including a big chunk of the Las Vegas Strip, half of the BetMGM sports-betting app, and most of MGM China (casinos in Macau). It's also building a casino in Osaka, Japan.
Barry Diller's IAC (already a roughly 26% owner) has offered $48.30 a share in cash to buy the whole company and take it private. The interesting part: the stock trades above that offer, which means investors are betting a rival will show up with a higher bid. Adding up all the pieces separately suggests the company is worth closer to ~$53 a share, so the call is to buy only if the price drops below about $45 — leaving room for a bidding war to pay off.
Pfizer is the big pharmaceutical company behind well-known drugs and vaccines. Here it's the boring-but-safe pick: it pays a hefty 6.6% dividend (cash paid to shareholders each year) and its price barely moves with the wider market.
A valuation estimate pegs the stock's fair worth around $32 versus roughly $26 today — and today's price effectively assumes the company never grows again, which looks too pessimistic. The appeal is partly as a counterweight: with the broad market now heavily tilted toward tech and chip stocks, owning a steady, cheap, high-income name balances out that risk.
Warner Bros. Discovery is the media giant behind HBO, CNN, the Warner movie studio and Discovery's TV networks. It has agreed to merge with Paramount-Skydance.
This is a "merger-arbitrage" bet: buy the stock now at a discount to the agreed deal price and pocket the gap when the deal closes. That gap is unusually wide (~14%), because there's real risk regulators block it — European Union antitrust officials have opened a formal review, with a first decision due July 7. The wide discount is the market's way of pricing in that break risk; the house bought a little.
TSMC is the world's most advanced contract chip factory — it physically manufactures the chips that companies like Nvidia design. It is the only place that can make all seven chips in Nvidia's next-generation "Vera Rubin" AI system.
The idea is to own the bottleneck rather than the chip designers: "everything starts with TSMC," and there's no rival that can relieve the supply crunch before about 2028. That scarcity is why it's called "one of the best trades in AI."
Micron makes memory chips — the components that store data for AI processors. The most advanced kind, "HBM4," is in short supply, and Micron is the only US-listed company that can supply it for Nvidia's Vera Rubin systems.
The stock dropped 13% on Friday after a research note suggested the new AI systems would need only half as much memory as expected. The house reads that plunge as the stock simply being priced too richly and getting reset — not as the AI-memory boom being over. Shortages are still expected, so they stay invested.
Taylor Morrison is a US homebuilder. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has agreed to buy it for $72.50 a share in cash, a 24% premium to where it was trading.
This is another merger bet, but the potential profit is tiny — only about 1.4% — because a Berkshire deal almost never falls through, so the stock already trades right up near the offer price. It's worth knowing about, but there's too little gain left to bother chasing.
ProAssurance is a medical-malpractice insurance company that is in the process of being acquired. Management recently confirmed they still expect the deal to close by June 30, which is a small positive.
It's another merger-arbitrage position, but it has been a weak performer — one of the laggards in the basket of deal-driven bets — so the view is lukewarm.
SpaceX is Elon Musk's rocket and Starlink-satellite company, which is about to sell shares to the public for the first time (an IPO). The plan here is just a small, quick "flip" — buy a tiny amount expecting a first-day pop from eager retail buyers, then sell.
The catch is the price tag is enormous relative to the company's actual earnings ("very excessive"), and big IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic are coming soon to compete for the same investor cash. Shares are also likely to be dumped once early insiders are allowed to sell in six months, so it's a trade, not a long-term hold.
Summary derived from the premium weekly research call (full passages in transcript.pdf / supporting PDFs) for personal study. Not investment advice. © the source for the underlying material.