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Jay Singh — Weekly SSR: adding gold via Alamos (AGI), the FPH land triple, ServiceNow at a 7% FCF yield, real-estate dividend adds, the Iran peace breakdown

"Welcome back to chaos." — the Sunday call after Iran walked out of the Switzerland peace talks: futures down ~1%, oil back up, and the Fed boxed in. Two new special situations (Alamos Gold's earthquake overreaction, Five Point's California land), a software deep dive (ServiceNow), and a basket of high-dividend real-estate adds.
2026-JUN-21 · Weekly SSR research call (premium) · Jay Singh (founder, Special Situations Report; ex-Goldman Sachs) · ~1 h 06 m · ▶ Transcript (PDF) · report · notes · actionable insights
One-line take: The Iran peace deal that flipped the tape risk-on last week broke down — Iran walked out of Switzerland after continued Israeli bombing of Lebanon and a Trump bomb-threat mid-negotiation — so oil ticks back up (WTI ~$78, Brent ~$81), the Nasdaq opens ~1% lower, and the energy-driven inflation shock keeps the Warsh-led Fed from cutting all year (the June dot-plot turned hawkish: nine members penciling hikes, one cut). Into that, Singh is turning more positive on gold after a ~25% selloff from the January highs (bearish positioning the highest since 2017): adding spot ETFs (PHYS, GLD), miners (GDX, SIL), and a new mid-cap special situation — Alamos Gold (AGI), whose 19% Toronto plunge on an earthquake at a minor mine (Island Gold, 60%+ of NAV, untouched) overshot the ~4–6% warranted hit (~65% upside to $50). Other new ideas: Five Point Holdings (FPH), a Southern-California land developer mispriced as a homebuilder (EV ~$750M vs ~$2.5B real-estate NAV → a potential 3x); ServiceNow (NOW), FCF +36% while the multiple fell 60% (7% FCF yield, ~90% DCF upside, an AI enabler not a casualty); and high-dividend mortgage REITs DX/NLY/RWT (14–16% yields) on the rate-peak view. Plus the SATS/SpaceX unlock hedge (short SPCX + covered calls), a Salesforce (CRM) $55B-buyback case study the market ignores, and the macro red flags: confirmed data-center delays (50% of 2026 / 80% of 2027 builds not started — a sellers' market for live capacity: CRWV/NBIS/DGXX) and Microsoft moving Copilot to usage-based pricing with DeepSeek — a "watershed" stripping OpenAI/Anthropic of pricing leverage. Premium subscriber recording — no public video, so the per-name table has no deep-links; full passages in the PDF (readable notes in transcript.md).

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Singh runs a special-situations house book — stances reflect how each name was framed in this call (new positions, adds, arb spreads, hedges, or evidence in the data-center-delay / AI-pricing / private-credit warnings). This is a premium subscriber recording with no public video, so the Ref column has no deep-links (section timestamps live in the saved notes). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis (FA fiscal.ai added by the build).

TickerNameResearchViewWhat Singh saidRef
AGIAlamos GoldQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNew gold special situation: a cheap ~$15B mid-cap miner whose 19% Toronto plunge (earthquakes at the smaller Young-Davidson mine, ~3 days downtime) wildly overshot the ~4–6% warranted hit — Island Gold (60%+ of NAV) was unaffected and hit record rates. ~$3B of cap wiped for <$100M of real damage. Bought Canadian shares; doubling via US shares (~$30 Monday); ~65% upside to $50 in 1–2 yrs, ~8× FY2 P/E, net cash ~$500M, >20% peer discount.
FPHFive Point HoldingsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveNew real-estate special situation, a potential 3x (small allocation): a Southern-California master-plan land developer (Great Park/Irvine, Valencia, SF Shipyard) the market misprices as a homebuilder. Its best asset sits in an unconsolidated JV, so reported quarters look sleepy while it extracts lumpy lump-sum distributions. EV ~$750M (both share classes) vs ~$2.2–2.5B real-estate NAV; trades ~0.4× book (~$5 vs ~$15–17.5 marked NAV). Flagged originally by Black Bear Value Partners.
NOWServiceNowQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveFeatured deep dive: FCF grew ~36% in 12 months while the multiple fell ~60% — a 7% 2027 FCF yield (above the S&P), 30%+ revenue growth, ~8,400 enterprise customers. A workflow platform that's an AI enabler / control-tower (governs agents across all three hyperscalers), not an AI casualty. DCF ~$180 (~90% upside); added shares ~$95.48 after the FOMC. JPMorgan reaffirmed the $1.5B AI ACV / $30–32B subscription path.
DXDynex CapitalQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHigh-dividend mortgage-REIT add (~16%, "15.6%") — added last week with NLY and RWT and will keep adding rate-sensitive real-estate names on the view that rates are near peaking if the Iran deal closes.
NLYAnnaly Capital ManagementQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHigh-dividend agency-mREIT add (~13.5%) — one of three real-estate dividend names (with DX, RWT) added into rate-hike fear; positions here will be "much bigger" than the speculative FPH allocation.
RWTRedwood TrustQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveHigh-dividend mortgage-REIT add (~14%) — third of the real-estate dividend basket (with DX, NLY) bought on the rate-peak thesis; a core position vs the small/risky FPH torque play.
TRIPTripAdvisorQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveExisting long up ~30% from a ~$10 cost (lows ~$9): selling TheFork (~half the market cap) to American Express for ~$700M all-cash barely moved the stock (the takeover may already have been priced in). Jeff Smith / Starboard pushing the breakup; thinks TRIP is ~50% undervalued, worth >$20 as divestitures play out.
SATSEchoStarQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveThe flagship cheap SpaceX proxy, now hedged: shorted ~30% of the SpaceX exposure against SATS and sold juicy ~$10 October covered calls — the SPCX short + call premium absorbed most of Friday's SpaceX-complex selloff. ATM put-buying by locked-up SpaceX holders keeps the arb wide ahead of the August unlock.
GDXVanEck Gold Miners ETFQT · SA · STKPositiveAdded gold-miner exposure (with SIL) alongside spot-gold ETFs as the team turned constructive post-FOMC on the ~25%-from-highs selloff and record-high bearish positioning.
SILGlobal X Silver Miners ETFQT · SA · STKPositiveAdded silver-miner exposure with GDX on the broader precious-metals add after the sharp gold selloff.
PHYSSprott Physical Gold TrustSA · STK · FAPositiveAdded for spot-gold exposure (with GLD) after gold fell ~25% from the January highs (~$5,420 → ~$4,150) and bearish positioning hit its highest since 2017 — central-bank buying "not going away."
GLDSPDR Gold SharesQT · SA · STKPositiveAdded spot-gold ETF exposure (with PHYS) on the selloff — more positive on gold into the bearish-positioning extreme and a relentless central-bank bid.
DGXXDigi Power XQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveReiterated as a data-center-delay beneficiary ("DGX" in the call): operators with live capacity and secured power (with CoreWeave, Nebius) command premium lease rates while ~50% of 2026 / ~80% of 2027 builds haven't broken ground.
CZRCaesars EntertainmentQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveIncremental news on the existing Fertitta-bid long: reportedly exploring a sale of its Atlantic City (New Jersey) assets.
CRMSalesforceQT · SA · STK · FANeutralBuyback case study — "not advocating a buy": ~$55B repurchased over three years (incl. a March $25B debt-funded accelerated buyback — ~103M shares at once) and the market ignored it. Shows how out-of-favor software is as funds sell it to crowd into semiconductors ("one of the most crowded trades of all time").
SPCXSpaceXQT · SA · STK · FANeutralUsed as the hedge short leg against SATS (worked Friday — SpaceX fell more than SATS). Peaked ~$2.8T at the IPO on a ~4% float; ATM put-buying by allocation holders keeps the arb >40% into the August unlock to 11.8% (→30%+ by November; Musk's 46% unlocks June 2027, full unlock Sept 2027 — ~40% of shares unlock by year-end, ~9× the float).
MUMicronQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe most important earnings print next week; the memory/semiconductor segment is "completely at a blow-off top."
CRWVCoreWeaveQT · SA · STK · FANeutralData-center-delay beneficiary: with operational capacity and secured power it (with DGXX, Nebius) earns premium lease rates until new builds catch up — the AI bubble has "at least a year" before the delays resolve, despite Chanos's bearishness.
NBISNebius GroupQT · SA · STK · FANeutralGrouped with CoreWeave/DGXX as a neocloud with live capacity that benefits from the power/transformer-driven data-center delays (premium lease rates).
MSFTMicrosoftQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe "watershed": moving Copilot to usage-based token pricing and adding a heavily-modified, Azure-self-hosted DeepSeek v4 to cut AI spend — "we do not want a world where enterprises cede all value to a small number of models." Down >20% from highs; sued by a Michigan pension fund alleging it overstated AI cloud-profitability.
WBDWarner Bros. DiscoveryQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe widest-spread arb he finds "quite attractive": a WSJ report (June 15) says DOJ staff lean toward suing to block the studio combination as anti-competitive — reversing the earlier "investigation closed" read. Assumes clearance after some divestitures.
LIONLionsgateQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSpecial-situation arb: +14% Thursday then −6% Friday after a report Netflix isn't interested; bid up for months on a content portfolio "someone is going to buy eventually."
ROKURokuQT · SA · STK · FANeutralDefinitive agreement to be acquired by Fox at $160/share (~$22B — "quite surprised"): ~$96 cash + 0.9693 Fox-A per Roku A/B share; shares halted June 15. Netflix confirmed it didn't counter.
FOXAFox CorporationQT · SA · STK · FANeutralAcquirer of Roku at $160/share — the bid hammered Fox stock as it integrates Roku's advertising-flywheel business.
WBSWebster FinancialQT · SA · STK · FANeutralMerger-arb: the ~2% Webster–Santander spread should tighten further after OCC clearance Thursday (a sign the review stayed independent and objective); still needs ECB and Fed sign-off.
HUNHuntsmanQT · SA · STK · FANeutralAll-stock merger of equals with Olin (announced June 16): ~54/46 Huntsman split at an at-the-market valuation, ~$400M operational synergies on a ~$1B EBITDA base — chemicals consolidating to extract synergies and preserve valuation after sector selloffs.
OLNOlinQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe other half of the Huntsman merger of equals — combining to extract ~$400M of synergies and preserve valuation through the chemicals downturn.
NSCNorfolk SouthernQT · SA · STK · FANeutralNamed among the widest, most attractive spreads in the market (with the Union Pacific rail merger and WBD).
UNPUnion PacificQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe other side of one of the market's widest arb spreads — the Norfolk Southern transcontinental rail combination.
CCRNCross Country HealthcareQT · SA · STK · FANeutralArb housekeeping: filed the definitive proxy for a July 16 shareholder vote.
OGNOrganonQT · SA · STK · FANeutralArb housekeeping: filed its definitive proxy.
VALValarisQT · SA · STK · FANeutralArb housekeeping: filed its transaction with the ACCC (Australian competition regulator).
HONAHoneywell Aerospace (spin-off)— · FANeutralThe Honeywell aerospace spin-off began trading when-issued Friday for a two-week period; after that it trades as an independent company under ticker HONA.
TWOTwo Harbors InvestmentQT · SA · STK · FANeutralRallied after UWMC didn't submit a proposal during the waiver period it obtained to engage on a potential transaction — the long-challenged deal still hasn't closed.
UWMCUWM HoldingsQT · SA · STK · FANeutralDeclined to submit a proposal for Two Harbors during the waiver window; has sold off sharply on its own problems.
ESPREsperion TherapeuticsQT · SA · STK · FANeutralArb housekeeping: cleared HSR.
ZIMZIM Integrated ShippingQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSeveral headlines around a takeover bid (reported as "Heim Skall") — an arb situation he's monitoring.
DeepSeekDeepSeek (private, China)NeutralThe disruptor: Microsoft adopting a heavily-modified, Western-safety-overridden, Azure-self-hosted DeepSeek v4 (~1/3 the input / ~1/7 the output cost of Claude) — stripping OpenAI/Anthropic of pricing leverage. A geopolitical paradox: a Chinese-born model inside one of America's biggest tech institutions because frontier-model economics are unsustainable.
VCXVCX (pre-IPO fund)— · FANegativeHeavily short: a closed/venture vehicle with concentrated OpenAI/Anthropic secondary allocations. The public market is applying heavy discounts to these pre-IPO wrappers as Microsoft's model-swapping shows the OpenAI/Anthropic enterprise moats are "far less secure than originally hyped."
DXYZDestiny Tech100SA · STK · FANegativeHeavily short (with VCX): a listed pre-IPO fund with concentrated OpenAI/Anthropic secondaries, de-rating as enterprise-AI moats look weaker than hyped.
OpenAIOpenAI (private)NegativeBody blow from Microsoft: Copilot moving to usage-based pricing and diversifying to DeepSeek/others. Though <5% of pro-forma revenue, the risk before its ~$1T IPO is that others follow suit; ChatGPT 5.5 "priced itself into a corner" vs cheaper open-source models.
AnthropicAnthropic (private)NegativeClaude 4.8 "priced into a corner": JPMorgan blocked Claude in Hong Kong on cost/compliance and Microsoft is swapping to cheaper/DeepSeek models. With DB's "Mythos" model circulating and trillion-dollar IPOs being prepped confidentially, the long-term enterprise moat looks "far less secure than originally hyped."

"View" is the house's stance in this call (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating. Referenced only (kept in the talking points, not tickerized here): American Express (AXP, buying TheFork) and Santander (the Webster acquirer); Netflix (NFLX, passed on Roku/Lionsgate); Oracle / Marvell / Intel / Dell (extreme single-name option-flow alongside Micron); Honeywell (HON, the HONA parent); "Parallax (PWRL)" cited as another listed pre-IPO wrapper with OpenAI/Anthropic secondaries; plus the private-credit cast (Thoma Bravo's $5.1B and Blackstone's $2B write-downs, ~40¢ take-back paper, ~6% Fitch default rate) and the research desks behind the data-center-delay debate (Jefferies, JPMorgan, SemiAnalysis, SiteLight/Bloomberg). Bank of Japan hiked to its highest since 1995; the ECB hiked in June with more possible in July.

2. Talking points

Open — "welcome back to chaos"

This week's calendar & earnings

TripAdvisor — TheFork sale to Amex

Turning positive on gold

Alamos Gold (AGI) — the earthquake overreaction

Real-estate dividend adds — DX / NLY / RWT

Five Point Holdings (FPH) — the land triple

ServiceNow (NOW) — cheap software, an AI enabler

Salesforce (CRM) — $55B of buybacks the market ignores

SATS / SpaceX — hedging the unlock

FOMC — Warsh's debut and a hawkish dot-plot

BoJ, ECB and the global hawkish pivot

Merger-arb & special-situations roundup

Data-center delays — confirmed, and a sellers' market for live capacity

Microsoft, DeepSeek and the shift to usage-based AI pricing

Iran — the five-day timeline and the walkout

Private credit — the contagion isn't over

Wrap — names to buy on weakness

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it actually is and why he holds that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

AGI — Alamos Gold Positive

Alamos is a mid-sized gold miner (~$15 billion). One of its smaller mines (Young-Davidson) was hit by earthquakes that knocked out a few days of production, so the company trimmed its near-term output guidance — and the stock crashed 19% in a single day in Toronto. But its main mine, Island Gold, is more than 60% of the company's value and was completely untouched (it actually hit record production).

Singh's point is that the market wildly overreacted: the selloff erased about $3 billion of value for under $100 million of actual damage — roughly $46–48 million of gold sales merely pushed to later quarters. A fair hit would have been 4–6%, so the drop overshot by ~15%. It's already cheap versus rivals (about 8× earnings, a 20%+ discount), has net cash and no real debt. He's buying — Canadian shares first, then US shares around $30 — for ~65% upside to $50 over one to two years, more if gold rallies as central banks keep buying.

FPH — Five Point Holdings Positive

Five Point owns enormous tracts of prime Southern California land — most valuably "Great Park" in Irvine (wealthy Orange County), plus big master-planned communities in Valencia and on the San Francisco waterfront. The market prices it like an ordinary homebuilder, but it's really a land bank: it develops or sells parcels (often through joint ventures with builders like Lennar and Toll Brothers) and collects large, irregular cash payouts.

Because its best asset is held in a joint venture, the normal financials look sleepy — quiet quarters with tiny revenue, even small losses — which scares off investors who judge it on earnings. The right way to value it is by what the land is worth: the whole company (counting both classes of stock) is priced around $750 million, but its real estate is worth roughly $2.2–2.5 billion. It trades near $5 against a marked land value of $15–17.50 a share — so if management develops or sells the land over the next few years, it could roughly triple. It's small and thinly traded, so he's keeping it a small, higher-risk position.

NOW — ServiceNow Positive

ServiceNow sells cloud software that automates the workflows big organizations run — IT tickets, HR processes, customer service — all on one platform with one shared data model. Its cash profits grew about 36% over the past year, yet the stock fell about 60% because investors fear AI will make software like this obsolete. That left it at a 7% free-cash-flow yield — cheap for a company still growing revenue 30%+ with ~8,400 big customers.

Singh argues the fear is backwards: ServiceNow is becoming the "control tower" for AI — a place where a company can build and, crucially, govern AI agents no matter which AI models or tools it uses, across all the major clouds. That makes it an enabler of AI rather than a victim of it. His cash-flow model puts fair value near $180 — roughly double — once the market stops lumping it in with software that AI actually threatens. He added shares around $95 after the Fed meeting.

DX — Dynex Capital Positive

Dynex is a "mortgage REIT" — it borrows cheaply and buys government-backed mortgage bonds, pocketing the difference and paying almost all of it out as a very high dividend (here about 16%). These stocks get hammered when interest rates rise (their bonds lose value), which is exactly why they're cheap now.

Singh's bet is that rates are near their peak — especially if the Iran conflict winds down and the oil-driven inflation scare fades — so the worst is behind these names while you collect a fat dividend. He added Dynex alongside Annaly and Redwood last week and plans to keep adding to the group.

NLY — Annaly Capital Management Positive

Annaly is the largest of the mortgage REITs — same model as Dynex (borrow cheap, own government-backed mortgage bonds, pay a big dividend, here about 13.5%). It's a core, larger position in the high-yield real-estate basket Singh is building as a bet that interest rates have nearly peaked.

RWT — Redwood Trust Positive

Redwood is the third high-dividend mortgage REIT (about 14%) in the basket with Dynex and Annaly. Singh is adding all three on the same idea — rates are near their high, so these beaten-down, income-heavy names should do well as the rate fear eases — and these are meant to be much bigger positions than his speculative land bet, FPH.

TRIP — TripAdvisor Positive

TripAdvisor is the travel-reviews and booking site. Singh already owns it (up ~30% from a ~$10 cost) and the thesis is a breakup: it's selling off pieces for more than the market gives it credit for. It just agreed to sell TheFork — its restaurant-booking arm, worth about half the whole company — to American Express for ~$700 million in cash, yet the stock barely moved, suggesting the market hasn't woken up.

Activist investor Starboard (Jeff Smith) is pushing the sales. Singh thinks the stock is about 50% undervalued and worth more than $20 a share as the remaining divestitures play out.

SATS — EchoStar Positive

EchoStar (SATS) is Singh's cheap way to own SpaceX — it holds a stake in SpaceX plus valuable wireless spectrum. With SpaceX now public and volatile, he's protecting the position rather than just riding it: he sold short some SpaceX stock (about 30% of the exposure) and sold "covered calls" (collecting ~$10 of premium that pays him if the stock stays flat or falls).

That hedge worked — when the whole SpaceX complex sold off on Friday, SpaceX fell more than EchoStar, so his short and the option premium cushioned the loss. He's keeping the cheap-proxy long but braced for turbulence into August, when locked-up SpaceX insiders start to be able to sell.

CRM — Salesforce Neutral

Salesforce makes the customer-management software businesses use to track sales and clients. Singh isn't recommending it — he's using it to make a point. The company has bought back about $55 billion of its own stock in three years (including a huge $25 billion, debt-funded "accelerated" buyback in March that retired ~103 million shares at once), which normally lifts a share price — yet the stock has gone nowhere.

His takeaway: software is deeply out of favor. Investors are so afraid AI will erode these businesses that they're selling software to pile into semiconductor stocks instead — "one of the most crowded trades of all time." Even tens of billions in buybacks can't move a stock the market has decided to ignore.


Summary derived from the premium Special Situations Report weekly call (transcript & report saved as PDFs in this folder; readable notes in transcript.md) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Special Situations Report for source material.