1. Maintain a comp sheet for the whole universe — rank it, don't cherry-pick it
The repeatable method
- Define a complete coverage universe by group (copper miners, explorers, gold miners, streamers) and put every name on the same sheet with the same columns — price, your rating, your target, upside to target, P/NAV, EV/EBITDA, P/E, FCF and sustaining-FCF yield, dividend, cash costs, AISC, EV/reserves.
- Compute group means/medians so each name is judged against its peer set, not the market: a streamer at 18× EBITDA and a miner at 5× aren't comparable, but each vs its group median is.
- Let the ranking drive the ratings: Buys where upside, P/NAV and FCF yield line up cheap vs peers; Holds where quality is real but fully priced. The discipline is covering the whole universe, so the Holds prove the Buys aren't just enthusiasm.
- Re-run the sheet on price moves — a rating is a function of the numbers, so it changes when they do.
Here: 21 names, 14 Buy / 7 Hold. Gold miners median +50.9% upside at a mean 0.7× P/NAV vs copper miners +29.8%; the streamers split on price alone — RGLD/TFPM/WPM Buy at ~1.0–1.5× P/NAV, FNV Hold at 1.8×. The extremes pop out mechanically: OGC +65.5% at 4.6× P/E, BTG at 0.4× P/NAV, NEM — a $112B mega-cap — at 0.8× P/NAV with +52% upside.
Watch for
- Names whose sheet metrics dislocate from their group median after a selloff; a Hold whose numbers quietly cross into Buy territory on a price drop (that's the alert trigger).
2. Back out the implied commodity price at NAV = share price — buy the widest gap to spot
The repeatable method
- For each producer, solve for the commodity price at which the company's NAV would equal today's share price (levered and unlevered) — that's the gold/copper price the stock is actually discounting, a cleaner mispricing gauge than P/NAV alone because it's denominated in the commodity everyone watches.
- Compare it to spot: a big gap below spot means you're buying the ounces cheap and need no commodity forecast for upside; an implied price at or above spot means the equity already assumes the rally (or more).
- Buy the widest gaps (subject to the quality/cost columns); Hold or avoid the names discounting spot or better — even the great ones.
- Use the levered vs unlevered spread as a balance-sheet read: a large spread means debt (or cash) is doing the work in the equity math.
Here: gold-miner implied gold averages $3,193 levered (median $3,360) vs spot above $4,100 — the group discounts a ~20% lower gold price. The Buys cluster at the lowest implied prices (DPM.TO $2,130, TFPM $1,950, GMIN $2,916, NEM $3,011); the Holds where it converges on or exceeds spot (PAAS $3,867, AEM $4,162 unlevered, LUG.TO $5,772 unlevered, FNV $9,749 unlevered).
Watch for
- The implied-price gap widening on equity selloffs while spot holds; implied prices crossing above spot on your holdings (the sell/trim signal); the sheet's cheapest-implied name as the next deep-dive candidate.
3. Screen first, underwrite second — the sheet feeds the deep dive
The repeatable method
- Treat the comp sheet as the funnel, not the conclusion: it surfaces which name earns the fresh, bottom-up research ("deep-research underwriting") before capital is committed.
- When the deep dive is done, set the actionable target from your underwriting — even if it lands well below the sheet's screening target — and only act if the idea still clears the rating hurdle at the conservative number.
Here: KGC screened Buy/$41 (+53.7%, 10.3% FCF yield, implied gold $3,350) on this sheet; eleven days later the JUL-07 VIP alert re-underwrote it from scratch to a $30 base target — 27% below the sheet's own target — and it still cleared Strong Buy. The sheet found it; the underwriting sized the claim.
Watch for
- Which sheet name gets his next deep dive (highest upside + lowest implied price + clean balance sheet is the pattern); screening targets vs final underwritten targets.
Methods distilled from an image-only VIP data post (Discord / Special Situations Report; sheet transcribed in transcript.txt) for personal study. Ratings and targets are Jay Singh's own SSR coverage. Not investment advice.