← Analysis page  ·  Jay Singh hub  ·  Research hub

Actionable insights — SSR miners coverage comp table

The repeatable analysis behind the sheet: not which miners he rates Buy, but how the comp sheet finds them — a rankable coverage universe and the "implied gold price at NAV = share price" trick.
2026-JUN-26 · Discord VIP post (SSR) · Jay Singh (Special Situations Report; ex-Goldman Sachs) · read ↗ · full analysis · transcript
How to read this page: each insight is a method distilled from the sheet itself — how the coverage table is built, ranked, and turned into picks. The boxed lines show how it played out in this post (and in the KGC alert it produced eleven days later).

1. Maintain a comp sheet for the whole universe — rank it, don't cherry-pick it

The repeatable method
  1. Define a complete coverage universe by group (copper miners, explorers, gold miners, streamers) and put every name on the same sheet with the same columns — price, your rating, your target, upside to target, P/NAV, EV/EBITDA, P/E, FCF and sustaining-FCF yield, dividend, cash costs, AISC, EV/reserves.
  2. Compute group means/medians so each name is judged against its peer set, not the market: a streamer at 18× EBITDA and a miner at 5× aren't comparable, but each vs its group median is.
  3. Let the ranking drive the ratings: Buys where upside, P/NAV and FCF yield line up cheap vs peers; Holds where quality is real but fully priced. The discipline is covering the whole universe, so the Holds prove the Buys aren't just enthusiasm.
  4. Re-run the sheet on price moves — a rating is a function of the numbers, so it changes when they do.
Here: 21 names, 14 Buy / 7 Hold. Gold miners median +50.9% upside at a mean 0.7× P/NAV vs copper miners +29.8%; the streamers split on price alone — RGLD/TFPM/WPM Buy at ~1.0–1.5× P/NAV, FNV Hold at 1.8×. The extremes pop out mechanically: OGC +65.5% at 4.6× P/E, BTG at 0.4× P/NAV, NEM — a $112B mega-cap — at 0.8× P/NAV with +52% upside.
Watch for

2. Back out the implied commodity price at NAV = share price — buy the widest gap to spot

The repeatable method
  1. For each producer, solve for the commodity price at which the company's NAV would equal today's share price (levered and unlevered) — that's the gold/copper price the stock is actually discounting, a cleaner mispricing gauge than P/NAV alone because it's denominated in the commodity everyone watches.
  2. Compare it to spot: a big gap below spot means you're buying the ounces cheap and need no commodity forecast for upside; an implied price at or above spot means the equity already assumes the rally (or more).
  3. Buy the widest gaps (subject to the quality/cost columns); Hold or avoid the names discounting spot or better — even the great ones.
  4. Use the levered vs unlevered spread as a balance-sheet read: a large spread means debt (or cash) is doing the work in the equity math.
Here: gold-miner implied gold averages $3,193 levered (median $3,360) vs spot above $4,100 — the group discounts a ~20% lower gold price. The Buys cluster at the lowest implied prices (DPM.TO $2,130, TFPM $1,950, GMIN $2,916, NEM $3,011); the Holds where it converges on or exceeds spot (PAAS $3,867, AEM $4,162 unlevered, LUG.TO $5,772 unlevered, FNV $9,749 unlevered).
Watch for

3. Screen first, underwrite second — the sheet feeds the deep dive

The repeatable method
  1. Treat the comp sheet as the funnel, not the conclusion: it surfaces which name earns the fresh, bottom-up research ("deep-research underwriting") before capital is committed.
  2. When the deep dive is done, set the actionable target from your underwriting — even if it lands well below the sheet's screening target — and only act if the idea still clears the rating hurdle at the conservative number.
Here: KGC screened Buy/$41 (+53.7%, 10.3% FCF yield, implied gold $3,350) on this sheet; eleven days later the JUL-07 VIP alert re-underwrote it from scratch to a $30 base target — 27% below the sheet's own target — and it still cleared Strong Buy. The sheet found it; the underwriting sized the claim.
Watch for

Methods distilled from an image-only VIP data post (Discord / Special Situations Report; sheet transcribed in transcript.txt) for personal study. Ratings and targets are Jay Singh's own SSR coverage. Not investment advice.