Title: JF Tardif: "We're Definitely Ready" If Markets Turn Ugly
Show: In the Money with Amber Kanwar
Guest: Jean-Francois (JF) Tardif — founder, Timelo Investment Management (formerly of Sprott)
Date: 2026-SEP-10
URL: https://youtu.be/CDxer_Ioark
Length: 55:08 (3308 seconds)
Note: Auto-generated YouTube captions, cleaned. Verbal fillers (um/uh/you know/I mean as interjections) and
stutters/false starts removed; wording otherwise verbatim and no content word, number, name or hedge dropped.
Every (mm:ss) cue is kept exactly where it appeared. The five host-read paid advertisements (Raymond James
01:54-01:43, Hamilton ETFs + Wealthsimple Trade 19:39-21:06, EQB / EQ Bank 31:51-32:36, ATB Financial
40:36-41:03, Haliburton Post House 53:54-54:44) and the host's merch/swag housekeeping are stripped — none of
the advertisers is a Tardif view. Auto-caption name garbles mapped in the analysis page: "Tardiff/Tardy/Chardy"
= Tardif, "Timo" = Timelo, "Mcfarling Gold" = McFarlane Lake Mining (MLM), "H&R Reed/AFNR" = H&R REIT,
"Adentra/Adantra" = ADENTRA, "Collier's/collers" = Colliers International, "Dutch Brothers" = Dutch Bros,
"Tormmont/Tormon" = Toromont, "Calian" = Calian Group, "champion Aronor" = Champion Iron, "Labrador
Aronor/Arnor/R&or" = Labrador Iron Ore Royalty, "go easy/Goi" = goeasy, "Propel/proper" = Propel Holdings,
"Cura/Cur Leaf" = Curaleaf, "a true leaf" = Trulieve, "socks index s o xx" = SOXX, "SPAT/SPRAT" = Sprott,
"lenomar magna" = Linamar / Magna, "trans transa" = TransAlta, "LG2/LG" = LNG (LNG Canada Phase 2),
"a VIDA" = EBITDA, "callous" = catalyst, "PAS" = PEAs, "riskreward" = risk/reward, "Agniko Eagle" = Agnico Eagle.

(00:04) If NAFTA goes away completely, that would be a disaster for all our Canadian exporters companies. That would be the time to really worry, but I wouldn't think that NAFTA going away is very likely. >> We've got JF Tardif on the podcast. He's not too worried about tariffs, but he is building downside protection into his portfolio.
(00:21) >> It's a very small cost every month. If we're right, and faster the market goes down, better it is for options, then potentially we could make a lot of money. So long gold versus copper. >> If you look at the multiple copper stocks, they're much higher than gold stocks.
(00:36) Gold stocks, generally speaking, right now are extremely cheap. >> The Canadian banks absolutely stellar, but they trade very expensive. And I am very curious about your views because you run a long and short book. So are you pissed? >> When I came last year and I listened to one of your other podcasts, you had real estate gurus.
(00:54) I did reduce my position at the time.

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(02:03) The host and guest may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial adviser or professional before making any investment decisions. On this episode, we discuss CAE and Go Residential, which are both stocks that I own. Hey everyone, welcome to a brand new episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar.
(02:22) I'm so grateful to be back at our regular cadence. Our season premiere has already hit the ground running. We've broken records with our Rick Rule episode, and I know that you all are going to enjoy today's conversation with JF Tardif, who by the way is also ex-Sprott. So, we're having a little bit of a Sprott week. And many people know JF for his idiosyncratic small cap ideas.
(02:45) He does skew mining as well, but he brought us a lot of interesting non-mining ideas. And his pro picks from last year, two out of three of them did extraordinarily well. The one that didn't was H&R REIT, and I know a lot of people have had some thoughts and feelings about that deal, and we get into it in this episode.
(03:08) So, I can't wait to bring you that conversation.

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(04:01) >> JF Tardif, thank you so much for returning to the podcast.
(04:01) >> Thank you for having me. >> Well, you were very successful in your pro pick last year, so you're back by popular demand. And this week, it's kind of a Sprott week because we just had Rick Rule on the podcast. Did you guys overlap at Sprott? >> No, you joined Sprott after I left. >> After you left. Okay.
(04:18) And then of course you went on to found Timelo Investment Management where you've been since 09. >> 2012. >> 2012. Okay. And people know you for small caps, maybe a bit of a commodity bent, but I actually want to start with the current anxiety point, beginning of September 2026, and tariffs and tensions between Canada and the US seem to be directionally going the wrong way.
(04:50) And for a while, it seemed like Canadian equities, they weren't really bothered by it. Now the news is getting tighter and specific areas are being targeted. Bombardier, the auto part manufacturers, maybe even procurement if you're trying to do deals in the US. How quickly have tariffs moved up on your concern list as a stock picker? >> Yeah.
(05:17) Well, first of all, the announcements are overall pretty small relative to the GDP. So NAFTA is still valid. So most of the exports and imports are still under the rules. And you can see that President Trump actually announced some tariffs on certain items like a week or two ago and then reversed some of them anyway today.
(05:38) So sometimes they realize it doesn't work for us anymore. We have a shortage of this. So I would say as long as NAFTA still stays — if NAFTA was at one point like we're going to get rid of NAFTA completely, that would be the time to really worry. Right now I'm not. >> Is that a sell everything event? >> Well, if NAFTA goes away completely, that would be a disaster for all our Canadian exporters companies.
(06:02) >> It seems because it's a disaster, there's no point in pricing it in. It's like such a black swan event. Bad for everybody. But as I said, directionally, we're not even talking. The two countries are not talking. And we're in this tit for tat tariff war that is causing real pain if you are Linamar, Magna, these kind of companies.
(06:27) >> Yeah 100%. It's a little frustrating and I have friends that reach out to me and they're very frustrated, to say a nice word. But President Trump is going to be there for two and a half years. You can sense that a lot of other people actually want to be friends with Canada.
(06:48) So maybe the worst case is this will last maybe two and a half years more. So that's the hope. But yeah, I wouldn't think that NAFTA going away is very likely. Also, another point is Canada versus US. It's true that we have a surplus versus the US but if you take oil out, my understanding is we have actually >> deficit >> yeah with the US.
(07:13) So there's — I don't think >> I should tell the president. >> Yeah, >> maybe he'll listen to the podcast. Have you done anything in your portfolio because of tariffs? Have you sold stocks because they're on the wrong side of tariffs? Have you bought stocks because you think maybe tariffs are transient and it's a buying opportunity? >> Yeah. No, I haven't done much.
(07:33) I'm conscious of this since a while. So I don't have anything meaningful that if NAFTA went away would be a disaster. Some of the companies we own — today at the end we're going to talk about names like many of those companies already operate in the US. Some companies could be Canadian but if their operation, the employees, the physical offices are in the US, it's fine. >> So not making any changes as of right now because of tariffs. Meanwhile, we've got the big elephant in the room that continues to
(08:04) factor into the market and quite frankly hold up the US, and that is the AI story and the AI spend. And this year, investors have been very hot and cold on the AI trade. Sometimes they're like, "We love it. Spend more and we'll pile in." And then they get a little nervous and then they back off. Because you're small cap, because you're commodity focused,
(08:30) how does this manifest in your portfolio? And how do you think about that? Because I don't peg you for chasing the hot tech stocks. >> Yeah. Well, I have strong views of how things are going to play out over time, but obviously nobody knows for sure. I try to notice what moves — the yin and yang. On Monday all the semiconductor AI trade was on. Big — three quarters of stocks, like 75% of stocks in the market were down on the same day. In Canada TransAlta was
(09:10) up, Capital Power was up, and copper stocks, many of them up 10%. That's kind of an AI stock, AI area. So got to pay attention to that. And I'm pretty sure this yin-yang will play out for a while. So to me, there are two camps, right? The bulls say, "Well, we're spending more. They're spending more."
(09:33) In fact, Nvidia said 70% growth next year. Okay. Well, that will make about close to $1.7 trillion of spending overall if the whole sector grows another 70%. So I think we're very much coming to the top, the peak of spending. So the bull is they're all right to say we're growing the earnings — of a Micron is booming so I want to own it. That is not wrong.
(09:56) The bear would say well this is not sustainable. Eventually we're going to hit a peak and then we're going to go down the other side of the mountain where actually spending is going down, because I really don't believe that 1.7 trillion spending is sustainable. So when we go down, what happens to all these stocks? I can imagine that those stocks would go down a lot.
(10:18) >> Now, doesn't that also apply to the mining stocks, the copper plays of the world? A lot of people will come on and say, if you like the AI trade, buy copper, buy hard assets, infrastructure. Aren't they going to suffer, too? >> I think so.
(10:36) We own a little bit of copper stock, but we also short some copper stocks. And if you look at the multiple copper stocks, they're much higher than gold stocks on a price to NAV or on a price to cash flow or PE. The gold stocks generally speaking right now are extremely cheap versus copper stock. So yeah, I agree with you.
(10:54) I mean copper stocks are likely to go down once we go down the other side of the mountain and capex starts to go down. And it could be in 27, maybe it's in 28. That's a real debate. In my mind it's not if. >> This is an interesting perspective. So long gold versus copper. Gold relatively more attractive than copper right now.
(11:15) Explain your thinking. You did already, but how does this manifest in the portfolio? How do you decide which copper stocks you're shorting? >> Yeah. Well, generally speaking, just even for gold, we generally buy companies that have a lot of catalyst, obviously. Positive catalyst hopefully. And we >> permitting >> permitting >> new projects, final investment decisions.
(11:40) Okay. >> PEAs and things like that. And we're short — and then the short varies. If we had a strong rally I short more. If we had a big pullback then I cover my shorts. It's more like to hedge my exposure, not to have too much gold especially after a big move up.
(12:01) So the type of shorts would be larger companies, no growth, maybe some of them not well managed >> like what >> I don't want to name any companies. >> Nobody ever wants to name their shorts. >> I don't want to. >> Well, to be honest, you're one of the few people that still are out there shorting. I know a lot of people who just stopped after the pandemic.
(12:19) It just became too hard. >> Well, it is hard. It is hard. But since 2021 I added a feature to the fund, the way I manage. I reduce the number of shorts I have. So we're still short but then I have puts instead. So when a market has a big rally up we increase our put exposure, mostly S&P 500 but sometimes others like right now we have puts also in Nvidia. And when the market goes down then we sell some of our puts.
(12:55) So we buy on strength and we sell on weakness just to help us lower our risk and our net exposure to the market. >> Okay. So you won't tell me your copper shorts. People love to talk about their longs. So tell me your highest conviction gold long right now. >> Well, don't want to say just one name. >> Okay. >> But one of the big positions that we have now, we bought recently, is McFarlane Lake Mining.
(13:19) >> Okay. I know the MLM. It's already done very well. One guy that I follow, Michael Gentile, very smart guy. So there are a few other people like that — Cohen at Scotia — and I follow Lassonde and a few others like that. So >> these people have done kind of the pre-work. Yeah.
(13:42) >> They already know the engineering is fine. The ore is good. The metallurgy is probably fine and these projects are probably going to be mined, because in mining there's a lot of issues that can come over time. So the fact that some of these people have done the work, I feel more comfortable.
(14:02) So MLM is one but there's many many others. >> And so this is small, it's like a sub $300 million market cap. Is this how you prefer to express your gold view versus — Rick came on and he said buy Agnico Eagle, that was his safe play. He also gave us some very risky plays. But do you throw in an Agnico, do you throw in the safe play or you prefer to express it like this? >> Yeah, I prefer the small ones where there's a lot of catalyst and I know who's on the board, where I know >> at least know someone that knows people on the board, know the management team
(14:34) and I know the upcoming expected, or hopefully, kind of the catalyst we should see over time. >> We've got a lot more upside. >> We've got a lot of questions in the mailbag. But before I do get into it, I'm actually going to do things a little bit out of order. One of your top ideas the last time you came on was H&R REIT and I'm going to pick on you because the other ones did amazing.
(14:59) H&R did not, ultimately down 12%, and it got taken out, if you can call it that, in this very convoluted deal that I think has sparked a lot of controversy. And we've not had — unfortunately you're the first guest that we've had on since the deal was announced who can talk about it. Just as a backstory, H&R has been looking to sell itself for 2 years, activists tried, there really was no clear single buyer that emerged because it was just a mishmash of things, and they ultimately did this deal where GO Residential, a New York-based REIT, bought the residential
(15:36) portfolio. Blackstone got the industrial portfolio and then the founder Tom Hofstedter got some of the non-core parts of the business. And shareholders — what did you get? >> Yeah. Well, you said takeover. It's really a take under. >> Take under. Yes. Yeah, in Canada. It seems to happen a few times once in a while and it's a little annoying.
(15:56) >> So are you pissed? >> Well, first I want to go back — when I came last year, yeah, we owned it and I listened to one of your other podcasts, you had real estate gurus on and they said, "Oh, at $12, they didn't think there was a lot of upside."
(16:15) So I sold — not all, but I did reduce my position in H&R at the time. Now forward to today when they announced the take under, stock was around 11. Now it's 9.75 I think, at least as of yesterday. >> Yeah. >> And yeah, people are not happy. I talked to a bunch of other people, every single person I talked to, not happy. So the circular of information, or whatever the details are, going to come out imminently and issues like there might be tax issues and also there's at least a perceived conflict of interest from
(16:48) the management of the company buying a significant part of the assets at what some people looks like cheap. And I would refer to your viewers, if they have access, to go to TD. TD has written a great >> report on this. Okay. So >> and so >> and the summary was basically what you were saying, that it's undervalued and that there are some interesting facts about how the founder is participating in this deal.
(17:22) >> Yeah. So we'll see the circular, but as it stands, before reading the circular, as it stands we're probably going to vote against the deal and we'll see what other people vote for. >> The trouble is — I've been trying to figure out who's going to step up, because maybe there's a dissident shareholder who's vocal, and I've spoken to Cole Smead of Smead Capital, US-based fund manager who's been on the show a number of times, who's also very
(17:50) pissed. He's a minority shareholder, but it's kind of like in the end, even if you're pissed and vocal, what are you going to get out of it? They've been trying for two years to sell. There's no buyer. >> Well, there are buyers. Two groups are buying the industrial and GO is buying the >> Well, but the price, what are they going to pay for it? >> Yeah, they spun out a few years ago the mall business and they put a new CEO in there, ex-Bay Street analyst, which was
(18:21) very smart, and he's done a great job with it. It's actually very >> You're talking Primaris. Yes. Alex Avery. >> So maybe one of the options is to spin out Avery's division with a new management, young with energy, and let's grow this thing. But okay. So we didn't own that many shares when they announced and the stock went down.
(18:42) So actually we started to buy more. So we bought more. So if the deal goes through, because you're getting GO shares and GO itself looks pretty cheap here. >> I know. I own GO. Do you like GO? >> Yeah. I mean here it looks cheap. They have issues but >> I own it back. >> Yeah. >> I don't own it here.
(19:00) I own it back there. >> But through H&R you're getting it and the stock is cheap. GO is cheap and then you get it under, even cheaper going through. So I don't think there's a lot of risk here. So if the deal goes through at the current price, you probably make some money. If the deal doesn't go through, we'll see what people vote for.
(19:19) I think the stock still recovers. And I don't know what happens then, but obviously we'll see. I have no idea what the odds are of these. I've asked some people and some people say that yeah, they think because it's a lot of retail investors that own it, they say, "Well, it's probably going to go through."
(19:39) So either way, I'm comfortable either scenario in terms of the current price. >> All right. What an interesting saga. Thank you so much for your perspective on that. We've got a ton of questions in the mailbag. So let's get to those now.

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(21:06) Okay, our first question in the mailbag, not surprising, it's about the Canadian banks. And I am very curious about your views because you run a long and short book. The Canadian banks, they came through earnings absolutely stellar, but they trade very expensive.
(21:32) Me personally, I'm looking at these posts by US President Donald Trump and he is pushing on the fact that Canadian banks are allowed in the US and his view is that US banks don't get the same treatment in Canada. Now, we can debate that, but I just wonder why that's not a bigger anxiety point for Canadian banks, because they feel very precious about that space that they occupy in this country.
(21:58) >> Yeah. No, I agree with you too. The Canadian banks right now — they pulled back a bit, but generally speaking around here, they're trading at the most expensive in multi-decades in terms of PE, but also price to book. They've made a lot of money on trading. It's not just the lending business that they're doing well.
(22:21) It's everything: insurance, portfolio management, and trading. They've done super well. And that's cyclical. One day we'll have a recession, one day we'll have a bear market and that side of the business won't grow. In fact, it will probably decline. So I would say that the banks generally speaking today — I told a friend, a friend was asking me for his dad.
(22:41) So I said, well, I said that is the most expensive, and then I asked, is it in a tax-free account? Oh yeah it is, it is in a tax-free account. But then to me it's a no-brainer. Just >> keep the banks. >> No, sell them, because you don't pay taxes by selling them. And then wait and you might be able to buy them cheaper down the road.
(22:59) If you get really nervous 6 months, a year from now, not owning the banks, they'll probably be at the same price or lower. So buy them back later. >> Let me throw a few things at you. We are in the middle of probably one of the worst pullbacks in certain areas of the housing market than we've ever seen. We've got tariffs.
(23:20) We've got an economy that really is struggling to grow and yet the banks have been really teflon in that environment, and part of the reason yes it's trading, but it's also wealth management which isn't as cyclical. So I want to put forward the thesis, the argument, that the banks are becoming something different. They're different than they were a couple decades ago. They're better diversified.
(23:46) They have more stable fee-based income. What do you say to that? >> Well, it is true. They have insurance as well. They didn't have before. >> So I agree, but I disagree with the part where the money management is not cyclical. If we have a bear market — no guarantee, but obviously assets under management goes down.
(24:07) If we have a market of down 20%, trading goes down, volume goes down. So yeah. And then as you mentioned what's going on with tariffs and Trump — I don't think anything's going to happen, but definitely you're not paying a discount for that risk. Right now people are paying the highest premium they have ever paid.
(24:27) So I just don't like your risk/reward. >> So it seems like if you're in a tax-free account, you think and be smart, just harvest your gains. What about going one step further? You don't have to name names, but would you go so far as to short Canadian banks? >> Well, we're allowed to short in the way we do so, but I'm not going to tell you which ones I'm doing.
(24:48) >> I think we could look it up, but I won't name the names. I want to talk about the risks of shorting because you do have to carry the dividend, right? And if the yield is 2, 3% you have to make more than that, right, on the downside. >> Yes and no. People might not know but when you short you get cash and you can invest that cash.
(25:16) So right now cash is about what, 2 and a half percent in Canada. So the dividend is 2 and a half, the cash is 2 and a half. So you're flush on that. In the US when you're short, because interest rates is much higher, 5%. >> When you're short you actually make 5% on your cash. So the stock stays flat, your net return is actually positive 5%. >> Okay, this is good insight, but tell me why your thesis for shorting, because that's different than "oh, I just want to harvest my gains. I'm worried."
(25:42) This is betting on a downside. You're not trying to end up neutral on a short. >> Yeah. I short — there's many kinds of shorts. Okay. I have short-term shorts where it's a stock or a sector that has had a strong rally and I expect a 5, 10% pullback, which happens all the time.
(26:00) I would short things that I think are massively overvalued and overappreciated. I will short maybe sectors if I have a macro view on something. And then I will short also often indexes depending on what happened in the market, to change my overall exposure depending on my view at the time. So >> which one is this short? >> Well, I'm short for example in terms of index.
(26:27) I'm short the SOXX index, S-O-X-X. Companies I don't want to name, but it's an index and it moves, and if it moved up from here I probably short more. If it went down 10, 15% here I'll probably cover half of it. So we're >> so you're not looking for 50% implosion. You're happy if we just get a correction, that's okay >> Well, ultimately I do think we're going to have — we have a lot of issues in the economy and I do think that when we go, as we talk about the AI, over the mountain, when we're going to be shrinking the spending. So if we go
(26:59) like two years from — let's say in the coming years 1.7 trillion of spending, like Nvidia said 70% growth, let's say the year after it's going down 20%. >> So these stocks are going to go down, and because they're so important also in the S&P 500 they might take the whole stock market down with that. Right.
(27:18) >> Does that mean you're short the S&P? >> Yeah, we short S&P as I mentioned. We do puts on the S&P and we short the SOXX index and then some specific semiconductors. And then again it's on and off. Nothing goes straight down, nothing goes straight up. We're a very active manager. >> But so you've got these shorts on Canadian banks, semiconductors, the S&P 500, sectors that have done very well. But as you said off the top, it doesn't sound like you're net short.
(27:48) You are sort of net long and you carry a little bit of a short book. Is that the right way to think about it? >> Equities are net long. Most of the net long comes from gold and oil. But the overlay options, puts, takes us well below zero on a net basis. But I have very low cost, because if we're wrong on the options it's a very small cost every month. But if we're right, and faster the market goes down, better it is for options, then potentially we could make a lot of money. >> All right. So kind of a
(28:22) position for a rainy day or position for darker storms. >> Well, we're definitely ready if something really bad happens quick. We're definitely protected. >> Okay, good perspective. They're all coming from that one question on Canadian banks. We've got another question on CAE. This one has become a very interesting stock to me.
(28:39) We've got a question from Charles in BC. Can I get JF's thoughts on CAE? Would he buy the stock here? Flight simulation technology. That's what they sell. And the stock has done poorly. There's new management now. What do we do? >> Well, I met the new management, new CEO, new CFO, >> Matthew Bromberg. >> I was extremely impressed.
(29:04) The CEO comes from a background of big US companies. He knows what he's doing. Basically, he's reviewing every aspect of the business to make everything better. And you can't do everything at once, but every week he's looking at different things. So it will take probably a while.
(29:23) So I'm not sure if the earnings are going to grow in the next two years, but probably stable, but making the business a lot better. So actually I like it. So we own some. It's not a big position yet because I'm not sure it's ready to take off soon because of all these restructuring and changes, but now I really believe it's really really well managed and it's almost a monopoly.
(29:44) So it's a good business to own long term. >> Even if they're in the midst of a change, are they facing just industry headwinds that limit the success of a turnaround right now? Think about our airlines loading up on this software when they've got the expense of oil or whatever. I think that's a fear that people have.
(30:08) >> Well, people travel more and more. There's more pilots every year. There's growth of pilots around the world and it's a law. It's a law for these people to train. So not worried about that. And then there's also a military side of their business which is not that big, but Europe wants to spend more money, Canada wants to spend more money.
(30:30) So that side of business also looks pretty promising. >> All right. So you've dipped your toe in. So did I. So I'm hopeful that in a few years we'll both be happy. We've got a question on Toromont, which has been a great success story, industrial company that's up 40% over the past year. A question from Rohit.
(30:50) Should he keep holding or should he sell here? Toromont. Basically it's like Caterpillar equipment, right? That they sell. So kind of a proxy on CAT and which is kind of a proxy on AI buildout. >> Yeah. So they own dealership of Caterpillar. Indeed. And they have another division where people are very excited.
(31:12) They're selling — I don't even know exactly what they're selling — but due to the AI companies. And the multiple of Toromont has expanded quite a bit. Balance sheet is great. There might even be net cash or around zero debt anyway. So it's a great company. I just find it's too expensive. So me personally, we don't own it. >> I'll reveal that we're not short it either,
(31:35) because that side of AI people are very excited and I think it's a great company. It's extremely well managed and one day also you might wake up where they make another acquisition, because they've been talking about making acquisitions for quite a while. >> All right. And so there's a bit of a pullback in the stock, still not yet interesting to you.
(31:51) >> No, still too expensive for me.

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(32:36) >> We've got a question on what has been a difficult road, and that's goeasy. And it's taken down Propel. We've got a question from Sarah.
(32:59) goeasy has had a rough go. Do you think it's safe to buy? And what about Propel? Which one would JF bet on? >> Yeah, I'm not a super expert on these two companies. Lending money, I always say this, lending money is easy. Getting it back is a little harder. >> And goeasy found that out the hard way in their recreational vehicle lending business.
(33:19) >> So my understanding is the traditional side of goeasy is still going well. It's when they went into the auto business, the used auto business, the problems came. And so — but it's now trading above book. It's not for me, it's complicated. And then also I'm a little bearish on the economy so I don't want to own a lender. And in the case of Propel, I met the management actually for the first time. If you believe everything they say, they sound like extremely enthused by the business and
(33:50) >> and it's different, it's US, it's very different from goeasy, but same sort of subprime lending. >> So they're growing very fast. Where I see insiders — I see insiders there. This is something we do at Timelo quite a bit. We follow insider buying and selling very closely and insiders sell regularly.
(34:09) So I'm just not comfortable because of that. >> Okay, that's good perspective. We've got a question on Champion Iron. Any thoughts on Champion Iron or operating in Quebec? This one coming from James Gordon Milan on Instagram. >> Yeah. Well, recently we look at iron ore, we look at Labrador >> Iron Ore.
(34:31) >> They have a nice dividend and then at the same time I said let's look at CIA, Champion Iron. And so both stocks are kind of >> in the toilet. >> Yeah, in the toilet. A good expression there. >> And that's why I was interested. And so I discovered there's a big expansion in production in the world. A big mine is coming to production in Africa. 5% expansion in production in terms of world iron ore supplies. That's a big big thing. >> Also again on the economy I'm not super
(35:07) keen. And then the third thing for Champion Iron is the founder. This founder created it very early. He made a lot of money for himself. He created this company which is very well established for going forward in the future. But he's also been selling shares. >> So for those reasons, I'm staying away, but I'm watching.
(35:30) So I'm interested, but I want to see where iron ore is going to bottom and I want to see where it's going to go back up. >> What would be interesting about owning iron ore? And I assume in past cycles you've participated. What does this metal need to participate in a broad-based commodity rally? >> Well, it goes into the recipe for steel, right? So >> are tariffs a knock here or not really? >> Not really for these two companies.
(35:58) They're selling their products mostly in Asia and Europe and many other places. So it's really a call on iron ore. I prefer LIF long-term as less risky, because half of the income long-term are actually from royalty. So Labrador Iron Ore makes money from royalty but also from operation — they own a small equity on the operation as well.
(36:22) So it comes from dividends from that operation. But anyway right now we're not involved in those two. >> Kelken on X asks about Village Farms. Thoughts on the company and the cannabis sector at this point. Oh, this sector, what a heartbreaker. Is it ever going to come back? >> Well, it's kind of coming back for some.
(36:46) We own Village Farms, okay? So we own it. >> Why'd you buy it? >> Well, right now they have net cash. They're actually making money. It's between 25 and 30 cents next year of earnings. This is US. Stock is around $3. They just made a big expansion in production in BC. They're the lowest cost producer in Canada.
(37:06) And because they were really focused, they're growing in Europe. Okay, Germany is an exploding market for cannabis and they only import their raw materials, >> their grass. >> Grass. So Canadian producers actually are big big sellers in the German market. So anyway, because they just finished their increase in production, they're going to start producing more.
(37:33) They will be able to regain their market share in Canada and continue to grow in Europe. Stock is cheap. And then you have also in the US the scheduling talk by the Democrats and I don't know if it's going to happen, but I like Village Farms because >> it's already making money. And then you have also Cura that just announced >> Curaleaf >> Curaleaf, they just announced >> they want to buy, take over >> ACB >> Aurora >> Aurora Cannabis. Yes.
(38:04) So there's action in the sector. So in my view Village Farms is probably the best candidate to be taken over because they also have US assets, they have Canadian assets and as I said they also have European assets. >> Okay. And is that your preferred way of expressing a slightly positive view in cannabis sector, is through Village Farms? >> Well, we own another one, but the other one we own it because it's going to go in the index.
(38:31) So it's more of an arb >> Trulieve. >> Oh, Trulieve. Yeah, that's a Florida based. >> I think Florida based. >> Yeah. Florida based. Okay. Village Farms — it's trading at three bucks now. During the 2021 heyday, it was like eight bucks. Where do you see it fairly valued? Can you even say? >> Well, it's 10 times earnings now and growing their earnings.
(38:55) So if the sector became a little popular, if the news flow was >> pretty good, it could easily be at 15 to 20 times earnings. >> Okay, >> so it could be a double. >> We have a question on Magna Mining. What does JF think of Magna Mining and Jason's ability to make this a profitable mine? This question coming from Chad on Instagram.
(39:17) Jason's the CEO, I imagine. >> Yeah, I don't know Jason, but I actually talked to somebody that works there. He's the VP development, I think, and it's just last week I reached out to this guy I used to know on Bay Street and I found that he was working there. So we chatted for like half an hour on his company, Magna.
(39:42) So what they're doing, they're producing from one area and it's mostly copper and nickel and they're going to produce a second, third and fourth and fifth area. So a lot of growth ahead of us here >> catalyst, which you love. >> Yeah. Lots of catalyst. They got $100 million from a very very smart investor, people that own mines, operating mines themselves, and they generate so much cash flow they look for other investments elsewhere and they decided to invest in Magna for $100 million. And then you also have the Dundee guys that
(40:15) are pretty smart guys that have been involved in mining for a long time, they own also. So I'd say this one looks promising. >> You own it? >> We don't own it now because we just talked to them last week, but >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Jason Jessup, the CEO and founder. Okay, that does it for the mailbag. Now, we're going to get into your pro picks.

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(41:03) Okay, we are revisiting your past ideas. You were on July 22nd, 2025 and the absolute home run was Total Energy Services. When you came on, it was $11. Stock hadn't really done much. It's around 35 right now. So good for you. Good for our audience if they bought it.
(41:30) Better if you picked up JF and asked about the fund. But tell us about — did you expect that magnitude of gain? Is this kind of what you're looking for in the portfolio? And do you still hold it? >> Yeah. No, we still hold it. Sometimes things work better than you expect.
(41:46) Sometimes it's the way the market works, sometimes it's less than you expect. Last year I remember you asked what's your target and I said at the time they were making $2 of earnings. I said I think their earnings are going to double between three and five years to $4, and 10 times multiple, 40 bucks. So we've done that almost exactly in one year.
(42:08) So their earnings now are $3. They're right now expanding, in the middle of construction of expanding their compression business in the US. They're almost doubling their capacity in the US. They've made acquisitions and moved new rigs and service rigs in Australia.
(42:27) They're the biggest company now in Australia. And Canada looks very promising with LNG 2, new pipelines. So the earnings could be again $4 maybe sooner than the 3 to 5 years and >> people are upside from here. >> Yeah, I think so. I mean the sector is now a little more popular than they were for a long long time. So these type of stocks could trade at 13, 14 times.
(42:55) So the stock could go to 50 and then on top of it all >> 50. >> Yeah. Or more. >> But the other big kicker, and again no promise, but the company has net cash right now and Dan the CEO founder has made very active acquisitions in his past. So he's ready to make a big acquisition. He's very disciplined.
(43:15) So if it doesn't find the right thing, it's not going to do anything. But if it finds the right thing, big boost in earnings if it does happen. >> Oil is obviously moving higher. But if prices come off, is this vulnerable? >> Yeah, of course. If oil goes down, they're all going down. >> They're all going, but this was even starting to move before oil prices moved up.
(43:35) So I'm just wondering to what extent they can be a little bit acyclical. >> But the compression business is probably pretty safe and it's booming right now and probably booming for a while. The Australian business, they're the leader and that business over there is very very stable because a lot of it is LNG sold to China and Asia.
(43:58) So in Canada again even if oil went down, we're still going to do those pipelines hopefully — pretty sure they will — and then LNG 2 is probably a go. So only the US is maybe more volatile for them. So I still think their earnings are going to go even if oil pulls back. >> Calian Group was your second, another great home run.
(44:18) Not as good as Total but still up 54% which we'll take. Staffing — and I remember when you came on I said oh, staffing, what are we getting excited about for staffing. And turns out there was a lot to get excited about. The stock is kind of treading water a little bit in the last couple of months. What is there to get excited about staffing and do you still like it? >> Well, they do also training.
(44:40) They do a lot of work for governments and now that Canada and Europe have decided to spend a lot more on military and training and building new areas and stuff, so they will benefit out of that. And the stock also last year was extremely cheap. It was about 10 times earnings. Now it's probably 14, but the earnings are growing and probably will grow for actually years to come.
(45:01) And the company also said officially very recently they're looking to grow further more on making some more acquisitions. So we still own it. We still own it. Yeah. >> The third one was H&R REIT, which we've already talked about, down 12% since you talked about it, but you got out earlier and you're back in because you think either way it's just so cheap, something could happen if people vote the deal or not vote the deal.
(45:29) >> That's right. >> So, if you missed that conversation, it's at the top of the show. You got to go there for that. Now, I want to get into your new ideas because all of them are super interesting and you might think, "Oh, we're coming here. Are we going to talk about commodities or your favorite gold stocks?" No, these are all really interesting idiosyncratic ideas.
(45:50) The first one is ADENTRA, sub $1 billion market cap. It's done nothing over the past year. It's done nothing over the past 5 years. Lumber wholesaler. Why do we like this? >> Well, there's a little kind of a style to my picks, right? Last year you mentioned Total had not done much for a while.
(46:09) So if the business performs and continues to grow and produce free cash flow, eventually the stock should rise. So in the case of ADENTRA, they made a couple of acquisitions during COVID or just after COVID, debt went up. Housing was booming, was good for them, and now housing is weaker also in the US. And they haven't made an acquisition for a while, but the balance sheet has improved. Now they're ready to make the next acquisitions.
(46:37) The stock trades at 8.5 times PE, six times EBITDA. They generate free cash flow. They have a track record of doing very well in the past. I don't know if they will make an acquisition tomorrow morning, next week, next month, but eventually they will. >> And that's what they are. They're really a consolidator.
(46:54) Lumber is just a very fragmented market and they can come in and be the consolidator. >> Well, it's more than lumber. They sell parts that go in houses and offices to decorate. >> So yeah, a lot of what they do is wood indeed. But very stable company. So as we wait for the next acquisition they generate free cash every quarter and again it's very well managed.
(47:19) >> Are you betting on a housing market recovery? Does that need to happen for the stock to work? >> Well, that's the extra kicker. No, I'm not betting on that. I think the stock is cheap here with housing not performing. If housing starts to perform, what you would see at the time would be also an expansion in margins, which I'm not betting on, expansion of margin for now. >> Your second pick.
(47:41) As I started to homework it, I knew that you were coming on to talk about Colliers International and I am very excited to hear what you have to say about this one because it's down 42% over the past year and I thought, well, their earnings must be imploding — and they're not. They're going up, and in fact profits have gone up and so have the estimates.
(48:03) So you've just got a stunning compression in a multiple and a former compounder. What's happening at Colliers? >> Yeah. Well, it's not a former compounder. No, because the stock hasn't performed, right. The company is growing. They're making acquisitions. Everybody would probably agree that this is an extremely well-managed company for multi-decades >> founded by Jay Hennick still. Yeah.
(48:26) >> Top dog. >> Exactly. And then we'll continue to grow. And one of the reasons it's down is the fear of AI, right? People think what they do — property management is not going to be — AI will hurt them, people will be able to do a lot of things without these type of companies down the road, which I'm personally skeptical. So that's my style. Stock is basically 12 times earnings, one of the cheapest it's ever been, and again it's growing, well managed and generates free cash flow. So
(48:58) this is my style. I like this kind of situation. The risk/reward to me is very attractive. >> I know. I tried to think about that, like how can AI automate property management? In my office if the AC goes out I still have to call the property manager and deal with it. >> Part of the business is brokerage.
(49:16) So maybe people think oh, you're not going to need a broker to find a lease. The internet has existed for a long time and still people do it. They have a business which is like WSP engineering. That's their growth platform. People worry about WSP as well. And again I will go back 200 years when we did engineering for a bridge on paper, and then the computer came and we could have said with a computer we won't need the engineering companies. But then CAD, the software CAD came, and engineering work just continued to grow and grow and
(49:47) grow. So if AI helps engineering companies I think it's just going to make projects better and bigger and more beautiful hopefully, and so it will continue to grow. >> Okay. So you don't think AI is a problem? They're also wildly exposed to commercial property because they manage properties in the commercial sector and looking through the conference calls they're talking about this recovery, and we read about it in the paper too, about the offices are getting full, the elevator banks are getting full. It's a
(50:18) problem for people who tried to go full remote and are now trying to bring people back to the office. Is that a kicker for Colliers? >> 100%. You're paying 12 times — things are not booming. So if they start booming, the earnings are going to go up a lot. And if they're not booming, they stay the same and you're generating at 12 times PE, you're basically getting an 8% free cash flow with growth, because the company will use that free cash flow to make more acquisitions.
(50:46) And so the multiple ultimately could expand sooner or later. So I think they >> This is an interesting one. I can't wait to talk about it in a year. Your final one is Dutch Bros, drive-thru coffee, but I think you can get more than just that. You can get energy drinks. And it imploded recently.
(51:08) Is that the opportunity? >> Yes. Again, it's my style, right? This company is growing. Okay. So I love buying companies that are growing at a fire sale. So >> store count growth 17% a year. >> They're a very small company. They're going to double, triple, quadruple the size of their company over many, many years.
(51:24) They had no food. Now they're introducing food. It's not even everywhere yet. So I think it's three items. So the comps, the sales store comps are up between 5 and 8%. So 17% store count growth plus the 5 to 7 sales per store. You're now north of 20% growth for this company. The multiple now is I think it's 42 >> times >> times PE, which expensive for you.
(51:50) >> Expensive. Yeah, I agree. It's just a restaurant >> but Starbucks is at 34. Starbucks is not growing. And then why it's cheaper — normally in US this type of growth people pay way more. And people are worried about a lot of competition in coffee. I give you an example. Cava >> yes >> Cava is a new like Chipotle equivalent >> trading at 92 times earnings.
(52:13) >> Shake Shack, the burger shack, trades at 52 times earnings. So >> none of those stocks are doing well either. This just doesn't seem like a JF sector. Yeah. >> So I find it very interesting that you're sniffing around in this neighborhood. >> Well, if it grows at 20% a year, it means it will double in about three and a half years.
(52:35) >> So the 42 in three and a half will be 21. >> All right. I love this. ADENTRA, Colliers International, and Dutch Bros. I think we're going to have an interesting conversation in a year. Before we let you go, we've got the closing bell. We like to ask our guests —
(52:54) we know that JF is in the weeds when it comes to his Excel spreadsheets and talking to management, but what do you like to do for fun? >> Yeah. Well, in the summer, I golf, in the winter as well. I have been a golfer since I'm a kid. And I played once with Mike Weir in my junior years.
(53:13) He doesn't — I'm sure he doesn't remember me, but he was better than me. And then in the winter I snowmobile. >> You snowmobile? Yeah. >> On a BRP? >> On a Ski-Doo? Yes. >> On a Ski-Doo? Yeah. Okay. So, golfing — and you didn't answer me. What's your handicap? >> Oh, my handicap. It's about five. >> Is that good? >> Well, >> I asked the question.
(53:33) I don't actually know. >> It's better than the others, but it's not as good as >> Okay. >> some others. >> It's Mike Weir's. >> Mike Weir probably is a plus five, which means it's 10 shots better. What — you know what, it's better than mine. Somebody once asked me what my handicap was and I said putting. >> Thank you very much.
(53:54) That's JF Tardif for joining us.

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(54:44) We've got a great lineup coming up on our next show. We've got Dan Niles on tech stocks. This is the Dan Niles that talked me out of Google. So you can bet that I'm going to take him to task for that one. If you've got questions, questions@inthemoneypod.com and we'll see you on the next episode.