Actionable insights — Gold Tracking '70s Bull Run

02:37 1. Identify which historical bull market the current one resembles

1. Overlay the current gold path on candidate past bull markets (1976–80, 2001–11) and compute the correlation coefficient of the two paths.
2. Check whether the current correction lines up in time and depth with a mid-cycle correction in the best-matching analog.
3. Read the analog's remaining run as a scenario, not a forecast ("nothing matches perfectly"), and use it to set your posture: build positions or sit out.

• The path diverging from the analog (a drop in correlation) — the signal the 1970s template no longer applies.

04:48 2. Benchmark a correction against past crisis drawdowns and buy the value, not the bottom

1. Compare the current peak-to-trough decline with gold's drawdowns in prior crises.
2. If it is already in that range, stop trying to call the exact low ("inevitably you'll miss it") and build the position in stages.
3. Prefer the assets that fell more than the metal (the mining equities), since they carry the larger discount.

• A drawdown that exceeds all prior crisis benchmarks, which would call for a new read, not more averaging-in.

06:03 3. When volatility is abnormal, work stink bids

1. Check whether the metal's volatility is well above its norm.
2. If it is, place standing limit bids meaningfully below market on names you want. Tired or forced sellers fill them far more often than in calm markets.

• Volatility normalizing: the edge in deep-below-market bids fades with it.

10:34 4. Decide on profit-taking by your cash balance, with a default of selling on a double

1. Default rule: take profits when a position doubles ("that is how I built my portfolio bigger over time").
2. In a mini-mania, check your cash balance before selling. If cash is already high, you can hold and use the cash to add on the drop. If cash is low, take profits to rebuild it.

• Your cash drifting low while positions run — that's the trigger to go back to taking profits on doubles.

14:50 5. Sort juniors into four lifecycle categories, and favour the pre-producer window

1. Tag each junior by stage: prediscovery (highest risk and reward), pre-resource (discovery made, sizing it), resource builder (on track to double or triple the resource, not grow it 10–20%), or pre-producer.
2. For pre-producers, the buy window runs from the construction decision to first pour. Per Clark, history shows "a 90% chance of a 90% return" over that ~18 months.
3. Within each category, still pick the best. Require value plus "catalysts on tap" that could double the stock within about a year.

• Construction-decision announcements: they start the pre-producer window.

15:59 6. Read sentiment by who is buying: institutions vs retail

1. Separate retail sentiment (subscription cancellations, "the bull market's over" emails, falling interest) from institutional flows (fund-manager and high-net-worth participation in financings and placements).
2. When retail capitulates while the big money keeps committing capital, follow the big money.

• Placement sizes and institutional participation slowing — that would mean the big money is stepping back too.

19:13 7. Critical minerals: screen the individual metal first, never the basket

1. Skip the "critical minerals" label. For each metal, ask whether it is actually in, or starting, a sustained bull market, or is oversupplied and ignored.
2. Only then look for a company in that metal with good value and major catalysts. Don't chase names that have already run.

• A metal's price actually breaking out before you commit to its equities.