Cited evidence: the cash-rich era (~$100B earning ~5% in T-bills) has given way to Mag-7 capital raising, which pushes up the discount rate on out-year cash flows.
No bottom-up view (top-down strategist), but the example of a debt/equity-issuing tech giant: diluters are the "problem children" if the market gets an upset stomach.
Staples he prefers over Campbell's: pricing power and brand pull partly offset GLP-1s and private-label trade-down, but he'd rather be long discretionary.
"A big problem": aluminum can costs in a commodities bull market plus GLP-1s cutting calorie demand; a K-shaped hedge only, and it just cut its dividend.
In one line: A top-down macro-chart strategist who is constructive with caveats. He expects a pleasant economic surprise (~6% nominal growth keeping debt/GDP flat near 120%) and a bond market that can stay calm even if inflation runs hot. He is bullish energy, long consumer discretionary over staples, and would screen dividend payers for buybackers, not diluters.
Bonds matter again, but aren't breaking. The S&P shrugged off six long-end selloffs from 2023 to 2026, yet late-summer 2026 sessions moved with bonds 60–65% of the time. A 5% 10-year against ~3.5% CPI is a fair ~1.5% real yield, and bond volatility is tamed. His "bizarre thesis": inflation surprises up while bonds stay "cool as a cucumber". Kevin Warsh is the swing factor. (2026-SEP-19)
No debt doom. 2.5% real + 3.5% inflation = ~6% nominal, which inflates debt/GDP flat at ~120%, still below the COVID peak. "Not a great scenario, but it's not the doom and gloom."
Bullish energy. In January the crude/S&P ratio was at turn-of-the-century lows under a universal glut consensus. The SPR is now draining at ~5.7M bbl/week (2–3× the post-Ukraine pace), China's hidden stockpile has been drawn down, and energy is only ~3% of the S&P after ESG "shriveled up and died". That makes for a structural return of flows to a classic value sector.
Discretionary over staples. Wages (+3.8%) are beating CPI (3.4%). Fleet fuel economy means today's pain point is $6–7 gasoline (2008 ≈ $9.50 today), so higher oil and a healthy discretionary consumer can coexist. Staples face GLP-1s plus input costs: Campbell's is "a big problem" (and just cut its dividend), while PepsiCo's pricing power is a partial offset.
Buybackers vs diluters. Mag-7 and Oracle-style debt/equity issuance risks crowding out Treasuries and lifting the discount rate on out-year cash flows. Ken French data since 1963 show expansion-era equity issuers fall 80–90% in bear markets. For dividend investors, favour a shrinking share count and an active buyback, which he expects to be a 2027 theme.
AI's second-order winners are dividend sectors. Healthcare/pharma (the Moderna breakthrough) and energy are using AI while tech "has some question marks", which is fortuitous for value and dividend investors.
The product
Grounded in what he said on 2026-SEP-19 (Dividend Stockpile).
What it is:Corgi Invest is a Chicago ETF issuer (a couple hundred ETFs already, possibly ~100 more by end-2026), where Weniger joined as Chief Investment Strategist in late summer 2026 after almost 10 years as head of equities at WisdomTree. The plan is very low-cost index ETFs, with expense ratios "like Vanguard", launching from the back end of Q3 into Q4 2026. His macro charts are free on X and LinkedIn, and some will move onto the Corgi website.
Offering
What it is
How he describes it
Seen in the index
Dividend index ETFs
Funds tracking mainstream dividend indexes
"We'll compete on expense ratio against Schwab" (SCHD)
SCHD (competitor)
Sector ETFs
Low-fee sector funds, including energy
An expense ratio "that will make you fall out of your chair"; the vehicle for his bullish-energy view
—
Beta / single-factor ETFs
Broad beta and single-factor index funds
"Tracking beta indexes, various single factors"
—
Style / country building blocks
Every slice of the classic allocation pie: large growth, mid value, UK, China
"We're going to come after Vanguard"; success = investors assuming "Corgi's got a China fund… cheaper than iShares"
BLK, Vanguard (competitors)
Thematic ETFs
Existing thematic lineup, including a Mag 7 ETF
Mentioned in passing ("we have a Mag 7 ETF")
—
How it serves retail investors
Cost. The pitch is fees at or below Vanguard/Schwab/iShares for plain building-block exposures, a direct saving for buy-and-hold dividend investors.
Macro framing for free. One chart plus one comment at a time on X and LinkedIn ("I don't post crap all up on social"), giving top-down context for sector tilts such as energy and discretionary over staples.
Caveat. The launches are plans ("assuming all the launches come to fruition"). He would judge the business a success only by 2028–29.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table (when securities are named), talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.