Jeffrey Christian — "I think that the cyclical bottom's in"
"It doesn't matter who wins, the economy is going to lose." — so CPM is showing clients a gold butterfly call aimed at mid-November.
One-line take: CPM Group called June–August right on direction but wrong on timing. They expected gold to chop sideways ($3,900–4,300) until Jackson Hole. Instead investors "got nervous sooner" and bid it to ~$4,600 by late August, "halfway to our year-end target," before a pullback to $4,395. Christian now says "the cyclical bottom's in" and doesn't expect a return to $4,000. His catalysts: a likely 25 bp Warsh hike next week if PPI/CPI print as expected; a Treasury + Bank of Japan yen intervention he calls a discredited 1970s policy; a doubled Treasury bond buyback that he reads as a liquidity warning (and inflationary, working against the Fed); a contested, skewed midterm where "either outcome is bad"; and an Iran war heating back up. His positioning is structured: on Sep 9 CPM built two long call butterflies for clients, peaking at $5,000 and $5,400 with a mid-November timing target. That repeats a 2016 election trade that returned 125% in a month. Silver "80 or 90" is possible. Platinum and palladium follow only as a short-term move. The counterweight is supply: gold costs ~$1,700–1,800 all-in to mine against $4,300, and ~75% of silver is byproduct, so "30,000 gold and 3,000 silver" "cannot happen on a sustained basis." Recession: eventually, "but probably not this year." Timestamps link into the video.
Reading notes. (1) No equities named. The rows are the hub's untickered commodity rows (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium). No miner, ETF or option symbol is mentioned, so none is invented. (2) The year-end target is not stated as a number. He says ~$4,600 was "halfway to our year-end target," and the butterflies peak at $5,000 and $5,400. Any single figure you derive from "halfway" depends on the starting point he means, so only his words are recorded here. (3) Butterflies are not a directional forecast. A long call butterfly pays most when the price finishes near its middle strike on expiry and loses its (small) premium if the price stays low or overshoots far. "Peak profitability at 5,000" means a target zone, not a floor. (4) Platinum/palladium are Neutral here, despite "we love platinum and palladium" for sophisticated investors: he frames any rise as "temporary… a short-term type move" with heavy profit-taking and steers most investors to gold and silver. (5) Sources he cites without numbers: the World Gold Council "walk[ing] back" its Q2 central-bank data (and, he says, earlier data skewed "to the wrong side"); Russian central-bank flows ("I can't remember how much, more than 2 million ounces" in Jan–May 2026). Treat the Russia figures as his recollection. (6) The political commentary (election skewing, Witkoff/Kushner as "Laurel and Hardy," the bugged-car story) is his opinion, recorded as said. (7) Auto-caption garbles are corrected in transcript.txt (McLeod, Warsh, Bessent, World Gold Council, Kyiv, palladium, albatross, war of choice, yuan, Laurel and Hardy).
1. Stocks & names mentioned
Remarks recorded 2026-SEP-09, published 2026-SEP-12 on Investing News Network. Stance reflects how each name was framed in this conversation (not a price rating). Commodity rows carry no research links.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| Gold | Gold (commodity) | — | Positive | "I think that the cyclical bottom's in"; not looking for $4,000 again. CPM structured two long call butterflies for clients on Sep 9, one with "peak profitability at 5,000" and one at "$5,400 with a timing target of… mid November." "We wouldn't be surprised to see gold prices spike sharply higher between now and the end of the year." Long run, a ~$1,700–1,800 all-in sustaining cost against $4,300 will pull in new supply. | 27:53 |
| Silver | Silver (commodity) | — | Positive | "We wouldn't be surprised to see 80 or 90 silver either" by year-end. But 75–80% of silver is mined as a byproduct with refining costs of "$5 an ounce or less," primary producers' average cost is "probably less than $20," and jewelry scrap and profit-taking metal are flowing back. So "3,000 [silver]… cannot happen on a sustained basis." | 28:19 |
| Platinum | Platinum (commodity) | — | Neutral | Market "tighter than [it has] been for some time" on South African production and Russian export concerns, offset by weaker auto demand (cyclical, EVs, ride-sharing; hybrids still use it). "Will follow gold and silver higher, but that's a temporary type of thing… we would expect a lot of investor profit taking." Only for "really sophisticated" investors; everyone else, "focus on gold and silver." | 30:01 |
| Palladium | Palladium (commodity) | — | Neutral | Paired with platinum throughout: tighter market and higher prices over the last 15 months ("that may continue"), supported by South African/Russian supply concerns but pressured by auto-demand shifts. A short-term follow-through move behind gold and silver, with profit-taking into any spike; for sophisticated investors only. | 29:03 |
"View" is Christian's framing in this conversation (Positive / Neutral / Negative), not a price rating. No equities, ETFs or option contracts were named, so there are no ticker rows.
2. Talking points
0:44 Summer recap — right direction, early timing
- CPM expected "a volatile sideways fashion June through August," with the rise starting around Jackson Hole. Gold did hold "between 3,900 and 4,300" through June and July.
- In early August "very heavy two-way gold and silver investor buying and selling" pushed it to "like $4,600 which was halfway to our year-end target." It was $4,395 at recording.
2:23 Why investors came back early
- "A very hostile economic and political environment" that CPM expects to "get worse over the last four months of 2026 into 2027," bringing back buying like late last year.
- "Investors got nervous sooner than we thought," on "military, political, economic, and financial developments over the course of August."
3:28 "The cyclical bottom's in"
- After not calling a bottom in June: "I think it is." It "might come back down toward" $4,000, but "we're not looking for it to go down to 4,000."
4:39 Next week's Fed — a likely Warsh hike
- PPI "tomorrow" and CPI Friday. If inflation prints as expected, markets will say "Warsh will be leaning toward a 25 basis point increase."
- Trump threatens something "crazy" if rates aren't cut. Holding flat "will be seen as him sort of paying attention to what the administration wants," but "I would give him more credit than the markets are giving him."
- Warsh is "one of like 20 people" at the FOMC, and others "will argue vociferously that interest rates probably should be rising."
7:04 Treasury + BoJ yen support, and the doubled bond buyback
- The Treasury "joining with the Bank of Japan to support the yen by selling euros and some dollars" was one August trigger for gold buying.
- "The doubling up of the bond buyback was an indication that even Bessent and the Treasury were understanding that… the liquidity in the US economy is struggling."
- That creates a policy tug-of-war: Treasury stimulus is "obviously an inflationary pressure" while the Fed says "inflation is being much more persistent than we would like."
8:53 The 1982–85 lesson: you can push a currency, not reverse it
- "By 1982, the idea that monetary authorities could intervene and turn currency exchange rates around had been largely discredited." They "could support and push… in the directions they were headed, but they couldn't reverse them."
- Central banks backed away from intervention in 1982–85. Only "once the dollar had peaked and was starting to fall in 1985" did the Treasury and other finance ministers step in "to help the dollar decline."
- Trying to turn the yen around "suggests that they haven't learned the lessons of the 70s." More of it would be "giving money to investment banks and trading companies" and would make the situation "that much worse."
11:03 Recession: eventually, "but probably not this year"
- "The economy is showing greater strength and resilience than we had expected." The World Bank, IMF, OECD, CPM and brokerages are all backing away from a near-term recession.
- "Enough strength in the underlying economy" to avoid one "in the final four months of this year," but the risk remains.
12:23 Midterms — skewed, tight, unresolved in November
- Important worldwide because of the dollar's and Treasuries' role. The administration is "working very hard to try to skew the election." "That's very bad for the US economically, politically, socially."
- The election "is going to be very tight" and "not be resolved… in the first week of November," heightening uncertainty. "Depending on how rough it gets, it could be very beneficial for gold and silver prices and very negative for the US economy."
13:53 The 2016 precedent: a butterfly returned 125% in a month
- In early October 2016, Trump vs. Clinton: "Doesn't matter who wins, it's bad for the United States and for the world." CPM "structured a long call butterfly option strategy" and showed it to clients October 7th.
- Gold "rose sharply" the day after the election, and "this butterfly straddle returned 125% in one month."
15:15 Doing it again for 2026
- Whether Republicans keep or Democrats take one or both houses, "either outcome is bad for the US economy." So CPM is "structuring a butterfly call to show to our clients today… on the 9th of September based on the view that it doesn't matter who wins the economy is going to lose."
16:30 The Iran war — Iran used the truce to reach the midterms
- With oil back above $100, the war is "probably not as important as one might think… but it is very important."
- Iran signed the mid-June 60-day MOU "perfectly understanding" it postponed fighting "until 60 days closer to the US midterm election," leaving Washington with "this albatross around its neck of a war of choice."
- No one informed "thought that this would be a five-day war the way Trump advertised it… It is heating up again," with after-effects lasting years.
18:14 Ukraine–Russia and a stack of risks
- Witkoff and Kushner "are like Laurel and Hardy": they flew to Moscow with "no plans, no proposals," and rode in Russian-provided vehicles that were bugged instead of State Department cars.
- Ukraine–Russia, the Middle East, "United States hostility toward Canada, toward Europe" all combine into "incredible risks and uncertainties and financial market anxieties."
20:43 Central-bank data is unreliable — the WGC walked back Q2
- "The World Gold Council has now had to walk back its second quarter data." It hasn't walked back Q1 "or the data for 2022 through 2025," which he says was "skewed to the wrong side."
21:47 Russia's central bank: a net gold seller for cash
- With FX reserves frozen since 2022, including yuan reserves the PBoC froze to avoid sanctions, Russia buys gold from domestic refineries when flush and sells when it needs money for the government or the war.
- Sellers "in 12 of the last 15 months," "more than 2 million ounces in the first five months of this year." Relaxed oil and gas sanctions let them buy "1.1, 1.2 million ounces" in June, then "in July they had to sell again."
- Refinery attacks mean petrol and heating-oil shortages and higher inflation, so the central bank "probably is going to continue to be a seller on net."
23:34 Financial assets priced by investors — but physical commodities in the end
- Prices "are primarily set by investment demand"; that's "why we have record high gold prices and record high silver prices."
- But gold's "average all in sustaining cost… is about 17 or $1,800 an ounce," so at $4,300 miners make "a tremendous amount of money" and are funding exploration "that will increase supply in the long run."
24:58 Silver's cost structure and scrap flow-back
- "75, 80% byproduct" silver: once copper, lead, zinc and gold are taken out, "the refining cost to recover the silver, $5 an ounce or less." Primary producers are ~25% of mine output at an average cost "probably less than $20."
- Jewelry and decorative silver "can be and is being refined," and investors, while still net buyers, are sending "a lot of metal flow back."
25:57 No $30,000 gold, no $3,000 silver
- Physical economics "will come home to roost and exert downward pressure," but not "until the economic and political environment improves to the point where investors say, 'I can exhale.'"
- "Gold going to 30,000 and silver to 3,000, that's not going to happen on a sustained basis," because supply "will rise and rise sharply at some point."
27:53 Into year-end: butterflies at $5,000 and $5,400; silver 80–90
- Can gold retake the all-time highs in 2026? "We can." The two client butterflies peak at "5,000" and "$5,400 with a timing target of… mid November."
- "We wouldn't be surprised to see gold prices spike sharply higher… And we wouldn't be surprised to see 80 or 90 silver either."
28:42 Platinum & palladium — tight, but a short-term follower
- Tighter markets on South African production and Russian exports. Against that, auto demand is under cyclical and secular pressure: battery EVs don't use them, hybrids do, and more people skip car ownership.
- They "will follow gold and silver higher, but that's a temporary type of thing," with "a lot of investor profit taking" on spikes. "If they're really sophisticated, we love platinum and palladium," otherwise "focus on gold and silver."
3. In plain English
What each metal is doing in his argument, in everyday language.
Gold — Gold (commodity) Positive
Christian thinks gold's summer pullback is over: the "cyclical bottom" is in and it shouldn't revisit $4,000. The reasons are all about uncertainty. A Fed that may have to raise rates under political pressure, a Treasury quietly pumping money in, a yen rescue he thinks is doomed, a messy midterm election and a widening Iran war all push investors toward gold.
How CPM expresses it is the interesting part. Rather than just "buy gold," it shows clients a long call butterfly: an options combination that costs little, pays the most if gold ends near a chosen price by a chosen date, and simply expires worthless otherwise. The two it built on Sep 9 aim at $5,000 and $5,400 by around mid-November. In 2016 the same kind of trade, set up a month before the election, returned 125% in a month.
His long-run caution: it costs miners only about $1,700–1,800 an ounce to produce gold, so at $4,300 they are very profitable and are spending on new mines. That extra supply won't arrive quickly, but it is why he rejects the "$30,000 gold" talk.
Silver — Silver (commodity) Positive
Silver rides the same wave as gold, and he "wouldn't be surprised to see 80 or 90" by year-end. It tends to move more sharply than gold when investors pile in.
The catch is how cheaply silver can be supplied. About three-quarters of it comes out as a byproduct: miners dig for copper, lead, zinc or gold, and the silver that comes along costs "$5 an ounce or less" to recover. Even dedicated silver mines average under $20. On top of that, old jewelry and silverware get melted down and investors take profits, so metal flows back into the market when prices are high.
So he is bullish for the next few months but thinks the physics of supply will eventually pull prices down once investors calm down. "$3,000 silver" is not happening on a lasting basis.
Platinum — Platinum (commodity) Neutral
Platinum's supply is concentrated in South Africa and Russia, and worries about both have made the market tight and lifted prices over the past 15 months. The demand side is shakier: its big use is car exhaust systems, and cars face both a possible slowdown and long-term change. Battery EVs don't need it, hybrids do, and more people are giving up owning a car.
He expects platinum to tag along if gold and silver rise, but only briefly, with lots of selling into any spike. CPM likes it for professional, closely watching traders; for ordinary investors the advice is to stick with gold and silver.
Palladium — Palladium (commodity) Neutral
Palladium is platinum's sister metal, also mostly mined in South Africa and Russia and also used mainly in car catalytic converters, so he treats the two together.
Same verdict: tight supply supports prices for now, auto-industry changes weigh on demand, and any rally is a short-term follow-on to gold and silver that investors will sell into. Suitable only for sophisticated investors.
Summary & timestamps derived from the public Investing News Network YouTube video (auto-transcript, cleaned, in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Investing News Network / CPM Group for source material.