Jérémie Boyer — the metals bull market is just getting started

01:20Aurelion and the five-commodity outlook

• Aurelion Research: independent, cross-asset, commodity-specialist research on Substack; the outlook piece gave firm views on five commodities.
• Highest conviction: gold — "I don't see how it won't go back to like 5k USD an ounce."

02:39Gold decoupled from oil — the signal they were waiting for

• While oil rose, gold fell (inverse correlation). In July it decoupled from oil — exactly what Aurelion was waiting for before turning bullish.
• Record ETF and fund inflows: gold up 2% a day, miners up ~30% in a month, and fund managers afraid of "missing the boat."
• China bought roughly 66 of 100 tonnes of global central-bank gold buying in June (Goldman Sachs data).

05:41Rates are maybe 30% of the gold story now

• The host lays out the real-rates headwind (rate-hike expectations with inflation expectations stuck ~2.5%) and India telling citizens to stop buying gold.
• Boyer: with this much conflict and geopolitics, "I don't always even look at the rates to check gold" — China in the room, Japan's intervention and geopolitical fear weigh as much.
• Not dogmatic: if Hormuz reopens and fear fades, "maybe we would become neutral."

08:44Horizon: six months to a year, not predictions

• Reserve diversification away from Treasuries (since the 2022 seizure of Russian assets) is the host's long-run point; Boyer keeps to a 6–12 month horizon — "we're not big prediction guys."

09:31The model portfolio: long-only equities

• Host: the model portfolio is up ~38% YTD and ~130% since inception (July 2025).
• Long-only equities — no options, no ETFs. They exited all miners before the early-2026 drawdown and are now re-entering.
• Current commodity book: two uranium stocks, one copper company (60% copper / 40% gold revenue, so already gold-exposed); one or two gold miners to come from a ~10-name watchlist.
• Bullish is not the same as positioned: a typical weight is ~5%; gold miners at 5–7% at most, "not 20%."

13:05Commodity weight, and "cards ready to play"

• Commodities ~25–30% of the portfolio (kept under 50%) — ~10% shipping, ~15% mining — since the commodities don't all move together.
• They keep pre-researched names ready and pull the trigger on a catalyst: a US critical-minerals name would be added if new US–Canada tariffs land (the same play made ~100% last year).
• They don't need to be earliest, and they trim winners early — the last stretch of a move is the riskiest; low volatility in the Aurelion index is part of their appeal.

18:29Fertilizer: neutral-to-bearish because oil is bearish

• Not overly bearish — there is not enough confirmation to be 80% confident either way, so "maybe we're neutral."
• Fertilizers are linked to oil, so being bearish oil and bullish fertilizer at once "will be contradictory." If Hormuz reopens fast, fertilizer comes down.

20:30Oil: China was the demand destruction no one saw

• At $110+ they warned it was too high: China was cutting imports (switching to coal) — demand destruction doesn't only happen at $150.
• Bulls post "selective charts" (SPR releases, low tanker transit), but inventories are rising; the dark fleet and possibly unknown Iranian pipelines move more oil than the data show.
• The market is adapting to a long disruption.

24:50What would flip him bullish on oil

• His first oil call (a deal faster than expected, oil back to ~$70) came from conversations with shipping CEOs — "lucky and right."
• Only US boots on the ground in Iran would change the view; attacks on permanent energy infrastructure "probably," but it takes time.

27:28The Huntsman exit

• Owned Huntsman as a petrochemical price winner (up ~40%); construction customers told them the price rises could not be passed on, so they sold — the stock is down ~40% since.
• Same logic for oil: without supply actually running short over the next 3–6 months, bullishness is speculation.

30:42Refiners: missed, and capped

• No refiners in the book — "maybe we missed this trade." Crack spreads can stay high absent a new shock, but buyers push back and Trump publicly pressures Chevron/Exxon on prices.
• Oil view: not above $120; $110 possible on a shock. Bearish oil does not stop him liking a Permian royalty whose break-even is low.

33:25Royalties: LandBridge, Topaz

• Holds LandBridge: Permian land and water rights, data-center leases, ~30 staff, 97–99% gross margins.
• Royalties are "amazing," durable businesses — Topaz Energy in Canada; he also likes an unnamed gold royalty company (not held). Depletion is answered by buying new land.

36:28Valuing royalties: compare to their own history, not to producers

• Pitching a 40× P/E royalty to his non-commodity partner Léo: "it used to trade at 60." Lower risk earns a premium; like bank debt, multiples are sector-specific.
• LB entered at ~20–25× vs a ~35× history, while TPL sits at ~50× — hence LB, not TPL.

39:20Price targets: 1, 3 and 5 years off a chosen multiple

• Every pick carries 1-, 3- and 5-year targets. No DCFs: pick a multiple (EV, P/E or FCF) from history and comps, lower it as growth matures, and apply it to forecasts.
• Funds think in multiples ("should trade at 20×"), so the price moves until it gets there; hitting the target is a cue to start selling.

41:37Royalty risk: concentrated holders

• TPL and LandBridge have large concentrated owners (Horizon Kinetics): you don't know what they will do with their stake, but a thin float means lower volatility.

43:26Uranium: the build pipeline

• Ignore the X "uranium gurus" who never sell. He personally doubled a uranium name years ago, sold, and has now re-added it to the portfolio.
• New builds: China ~70 reactors in 10 years, UK 7, France 5, India "a lot"; Germany's closures now look like a mistake.

47:07Fuel is a small cost, but supply is the point — and both sides of the trade

• Host: fuel is a small share of reactor cost, so utilities don't chase price. Boyer: it is a supply question — if ten buyers want the same mine's output, the producer simply raises prices.
• Held both ways: one of the biggest producers plus a physical-uranium holding company that moves only on the physical price — "less risky that way."
• Main risk: countries don't build what they promised (e.g. a switch to coal). Europe's green goals leave it "stuck with uranium," and reactors can't be switched off.

55:12Copper: demand now, not a deficit in 10 years

• He dislikes supply-deficit cases that only arrive in 10 years; copper's demand is here now, and it trades apart from gold and the other miners.
• Risk: the AI conversation moving from data centers to memory/GPUs.
• Target $7 by Christmas from ~$6.50 — "I could have put eight"; new mines take 10–15 years.
• AI hardware firms now flag copper as a cost risk; a Lumentum IR contact said copper has more upside.

1:00:17Not Freeport: the earning-phase producer

• Funds pile into Freeport; he doesn't see it as a quality producer. Aurelion's copper holding (copper, gold, zinc; Peru, US, Canada) has finished heavy capex, so falling capex and higher copper mean rising free cash flow — "the earning phase."
• ~17× P/E for a ~$10B company vs Southern Copper at ~40× and ~$200B: "the more it's crowded … the less overlooked it is." Big enough for funds, but overlooked.
• D.E. Shaw holds ~$50M — "a good confirmation"; the host warns it may be a hedged spread.

1:06:44Summary of the five

• Gold bullish (shorter-term); copper bullish (longer-term, earning-phase producers); uranium bullish ("this time could be the right one"); crude bearish but not extremely; fertilizer — urea prices falling, affordable on real data — not bullish for the next six months.
• The report is free at aurelionresearch.com and on Substack; X: Aurelion RSC and partner Léo Trudel.